Japanese Approach to Pandemic Measures

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

"Stringency Index"

Coronavirus Government Response Tracker
The Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) systematically collects information on several different common policy responses that governments have taken to respond to the pandemic on 18 indicators such as school closures and travel restrictions. It now has data from more than 180 countries.
The data is also used to inform a Risk of Openness Index which aims to help countries understand if it is safe to ‘open up’ or whether they should ‘close down’ in their fight to tackle the coronavirus.
More ➥ https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/re...sponse-tracker
COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index, Dec 14,
2020
This is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region.
Here ➥ https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/c...ringency-index

“Variation in government responses to COVID-19"
➥ ://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/publications/variation-government-responses-covid-19

“Risk of Openness Index (RoOI)”
➥ https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-poli...openness_index

Thanks!

So I've studied this. The most relevant document is the Working Paper, here: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/defau...020-032-v9.pdf

So this "Stringency Index" is based on the implementation of eight mandatory government measures:

C1 School closing Ordinal Geographic
C2 Workplace closing Ordinal Geographic
C3 Cancel public events Ordinal Geographic
C4 Restrictions on gathering size Ordinal Geographic
C5 Close public transport Ordinal Geographic
C6 Stay at home requirements Ordinal Geographic
C7 Restrictions on internal movement Ordinal Geographic
C8 Restrictions on international travel Ordinal No

This does not capture ANY of the voluntary measures, no matter how effective they are. Since the Nordic approach is PRIMARILY based on voluntary measures, this is really not applicable at all to the Nordic countries -- the real action here in containing the pandemic are the weekly or biweekly adjustment of recommendations, which are not considered in this Index AT ALL, only the quite trivial mandatory measures which are just a sideshow up here.

Moreover, the Index is formulated on the basis of only the STRICTEST measures in any one region, where there is regional variation. That means that Finland was considered to have "Restrictions on Internal Movement" although we only had a brief and loose restriction on travelling into and out of Uusimaa, one single region, and Germany, which had stay at home orders in only two of the 16 Länder, and no national lockdown, is nevertheless considered by the Index to have had lockdown.

So this is measuring only really trivial things in the Nordic countries, like border measures, where all the countries including Sweden closed to travel from outside Schengen, but several countries closed borders to other Schengen countries. But the LEGAL restrictions on borders were a small part of the picture -- all the Nordic borders could be crossed for almost any reason -- the main driver of border traffic was the recommendations, and the reduction of border traffic was the same across the region.

Measures C2, C5 and C6 were never implemented in any Nordic country, but there were and are elaborate recommendations, frequently updated, about social distancing, meeting outside of your family and social bubble, working from home, internal travel, and use of public transport, which had (and have) very high rates of compliance, exceeding compliance in many or most countries where these measures were mandatory.

So this Stringency Index is just completely inapplicable to the Nordic countries, and says NOTHING about any differences between Sweden and her neighbors.

Some right wing nuts in the U.S. like to use the Nordic countries as an example of how you can just ignore the virus and do just fine, and nothing could be further from the truth, as I have argued over and over again. Changes in behavior here are similar to what happened in countries in lockdown. The method of implementing the measures is different; it doesn't mean there aren't any.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

We discussed this upthread.

Of course, comparing a country with itself, is an important part of the picture. The shape of the curve is important, because exponential growth can get a country from a very low level of infections in absolute terms to a very high one, pretty fast (see Lithuania). So of course, Japan is "facing danger". But that's almost a trivial point -- the entire world is "facing danger".

.......

Maybe trivial to you, but certainly not trivial to the Japanese- the subject of this thread.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Maybe trivial to you, but certainly not trivial to the Japanese- the subject of this thread.

I said that "saying that Japan is facing danger is almost trivial", NOT indeed that what Japan is dealing with is trivial. Sorry for any confusion.


The pandemic is not trivial anywhere. The Japanese taking the increase in cases VERY seriously although the absolute rate is low, is just one more bit of evidence that they are doing it well.

[Capn Jimbo]

Ho hum. The shilling for Sweden just won't stop, and as always based on highly selective parsing polemics. So what else is new?

So this "Stringency Index" is based on the implementation of eight mandatory government measures:

C1 School closing Ordinal Geographic
C2 Workplace closing Ordinal Geographic
C3 Cancel public events Ordinal Geographic
C4 Restrictions on gathering size Ordinal Geographic
C5 Close public transport Ordinal Geographic
C6 Stay at home requirements Ordinal Geographic
C7 Restrictions on internal movement Ordinal Geographic
C8 Restrictions on international travel Ordinal No

Wrong. There are around possible 160 measures being used, based on four levels of stringency, and including three other categories. Such posts extract just enough information to once again make the same, repetitive false claims.

This does not capture ANY of the voluntary measures, no matter how effective they are...Moreover, the Index is formulated on the basis of only the STRICTEST measures.

Absolutely wrong. For example among many other factors not mentioned, mask wearing is also rated, and again on four levels of compliance, not simply the "strictest". This post makes use of false claims designed to appear authoritative.

This is simply yet another made up strawman, and failing argument.

So this is measuring only really trivial things in the Nordic countries

Ridiculous, and unworthy of extended comment. The complete index has about 160 measures, representing four levels of stringency and applied equally to all countries. The factors are important deadly serious and anything but trivial.



The graphs that flow from this international project are of inestimable value in the public health response.

So this Stringency Index is just completely inapplicable to the Nordic countries, and says NOTHING about any differences between Sweden and her neighbors.

And this quote is completely inapplicable to reality and fact.

The bottom line is simple: such posts are nothing more than shilling for Sweden, no matter the cost in time, parsing, polemics, blatant misrepresentations and/or claims.

Most are based on parsing, misquoting other posters, false claims, and made-up strawmen - all designed to support shilling for Sweden.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I said that "saying that Japan is facing danger is almost trivial", NOT indeed that what Japan is dealing with is trivial. Sorry for any confusion.


The pandemic is not trivial anywhere. The Japanese taking the increase in cases VERY seriously although the absolute rate is low, is just one more bit of evidence that they are doing it well.

Do your quotes mean that you actually typed this, or is it just a summary for you. You posted "But that's almost a trivial point". Now you want your trivial comment to be taken trivially? You are blowing their situation off because you have data that its worse somewhere else. Japan is currently far worse off than they have been over this CV period. Hopefully they will quickly turn it around.

[AndyEss]

Bloomberg Dec17,2020

Sweden’s Top Covid Strategist Is Losing Population’s Trust

“.. The Covid-19 death toll in Sweden stands at 7,802, the highest in the Nordic region in both absolute and per capita terms. The situation has caused such wide-spread shock in the country that it drew a rare verbal intervention from the King.
“The Swedish people have suffered enormously in difficult conditions,” King Carl XVI Gustaf told state broadcaster SVT. When it comes to the strategy deployed in Sweden, he said, “I think we have failed.”..”

[AndyEss]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/swedens...ny-11608145710

Sweden’s Covid-19 Policy Comes Under Fresh Scrutiny

“.. A new surge of Covid-19 cases is increasing pressure on the Swedish government to further tighten restrictions..On Monday, the country’s statistics agency said Sweden recorded 8,088 deaths from all causes last month, the second-deadliest month for the country of 10 million in its modern history, eclipsed only by the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918..The increase in deaths and hospitalizations has already forced Sweden to set aside a policy of using voluntary measures to contain the virus, a strategy that has drawn global interest..On Tuesday, Mr. Löfven said the country’s new surge had overpowered his strategy. Since Nov. 22, his government has banned gatherings of more than eight people and ordered theaters and entertainment venues closed. Last week, high schools went online..Early on, Sweden hoped the virus would spread chiefly among the young and healthy, creating herd immunity with minimal deaths.
The country’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell argued that the country would eventually achieve that threshold long before a vaccine became available.But last month, Mr. Tegnell said, “We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now.”“

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

. . . Wrong. There are around possible 160 measures being used, based on four levels of stringency, and including three other categories. Such posts extract just enough information to once again make the same, repetitive false claims.

Absolutely wrong. For example among many other factors not mentioned, mask wearing is also rated, and again on four levels of compliance, not simply the "strictest". This post makes use of false claims designed to appear authoritative.

I'm just ignoring all the combative, aggressive, axe-grinding bilgewater in this post, and focussing on SUBSTANCE. Could we just check that at the door please, and have a normal civilized conversation?

The substance is this: I read the Working Paper rather carefully. I didn't see anything about any 160 possible measures -- only 8 are mentioned. My comments are based on this reading, and they are sincere (straw man, my ass) and honest, and true, if what I read is true.

Where did you get 160 possible measures? If I missed something, or if there is something different in a different paper, could you please politely and respectfully post the better information? Then we can reconsider the arguments.

Thank you.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by AndyEss

https://www.wsj.com/articles/swedens...ny-11608145710

Sweden’s Covid-19 Policy Comes Under Fresh Scrutiny

“.. A new surge of Covid-19 cases is increasing pressure on the Swedish government to further tighten restrictions..On Monday, the country’s statistics agency said Sweden recorded 8,088 deaths from all causes last month, the second-deadliest month for the country of 10 million in its modern history, eclipsed only by the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918..The increase in deaths and hospitalizations has already forced Sweden to set aside a policy of using voluntary measures to contain the virus, a strategy that has drawn global interest..On Tuesday, Mr. Löfven said the country’s new surge had overpowered his strategy. Since Nov. 22, his government has banned gatherings of more than eight people and ordered theaters and entertainment venues closed. Last week, high schools went online..Early on, Sweden hoped the virus would spread chiefly among the young and healthy, creating herd immunity with minimal deaths.
The country’s chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell argued that the country would eventually achieve that threshold long before a vaccine became available.But last month, Mr. Tegnell said, “We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now.”“

More factually incorrect information. I like to defend Sweden because there is so much ignorant nonsense posted particularly about Sweden, which is motivated by trying to prove a political point. I despise the politicization of the pandemic and feel it is my duty to push back on this.

What is factually incorrect here:

1. The Swedish policy was NEVER intended to "allow the virus to spread among young people in order to achieve herd immunity". This is mythology. The Swedish health authorities have been giving weekly press conferences since the beginning of March -- the texts are all available online. You will see that from the very beginning they said that herd immunity is IMPOSSIBLE to achieve without a vaccine. The confusion arises from the fact that some ignorant people in favor of doing nothing about the virus erroneously used Sweden as an example of how you can do nothing and still have a reasonably good result. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Swedish policy was NEVER to do nothing; it was always to suppress the epidemic as much as possible using measures from their pandemic plan, which like in all the Nordic countries are mostly voluntary.

2. Sweden has NOT "abandoned its policy". Where do people get this crap? Banning public gatherings, limiting private gathering size, closing high schools, closing entertainment venues, has been going on since the middle of March. These are all INTEGRAL PARTS of the strategy which have been used off and on since the beginning. Nothing new here.

Jeez. And some people say that pushing back against such ignorant misinformation is "shilling for Sweden"
This is nothing against you, AndyEss -- I understand you are just reprinting what journalists have written.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by AndyEss

Bloomberg Dec17,2020

Sweden’s Top Covid Strategist Is Losing Population’s Trust

“.. The Covid-19 death toll in Sweden stands at 7,802, the highest in the Nordic region in both absolute and per capita terms. The situation has caused such wide-spread shock in the country that it drew a rare verbal intervention from the King.
“The Swedish people have suffered enormously in difficult conditions,” King Carl XVI Gustaf told state broadcaster SVT. When it comes to the strategy deployed in Sweden, he said, “I think we have failed.”..”

This is totally misleading.

The King was NOT talking about the overall pandemic strategy in Sweden.

He was talking about the measures to PROTECT THE ELDERLY IN CARE HOMES. Two very different things.

He was responding to the report which just came out which properly blasted the bungled management of care homes in the early stages of the pandemic. An accurate account here:

https://abcnews.go.com/International...derly-74775101

"COPENHAGEN, Denmark -- Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf says he believes his country has failed to protect the elderly in care homes from the effects of the pandemic.
“I think we have failed. We have a large number who have died and that is terrible. It is something we all suffer with,” the monarch said.
His comments followed the conclusions presented Tuesday by an independent commission that looked into Sweden’s handling of the pandemic. It said that elderly care in Sweden has major structural shortcomings and authorities have proved unprepared and ill-equipped to meet the pandemic."

This is uncontroversial. They screwed the pooch in their care homes and a lot of people died unnecessarily. But this and worse happened in a lot of countries, all over the U.S., Ireland, many others. Hopefully we will work out protocols to prevent this from happening in the next pandemic.

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by AndyEss

Bloomberg Dec17,2020

Sweden’s Top Covid Strategist Is Losing Population’s Trust

“.. The Covid-19 death toll in Sweden stands at 7,802, the highest in the Nordic region in both absolute and per capita terms. The situation has caused such wide-spread shock in the country that it drew a rare verbal intervention from the King.

Yes! Of the Nordic countries Sweden has by far done the worst. Let’s compare:

Cumulative Deaths/100k (to date)

Sweden: 69.7
Denmark: 15.5
Finland: 8.4
Norway: 7.2

New Deaths/100k (latest)

Sweden: 0.75
Denmark: 0.15
Finland: 0.11
Norway: 0.09

Total Cases/100k (to date)

Sweden: 3,476
Denmark: 2,000
Finland: 570
Norway: 773

New Cases/100k (latest)

Sweden: 62.1
Denmark: 52.3
Finland: 8.3
Norway: 7.0

In summary, Sweden has not done well at all and still isn’t. Compared to Norway, whose fast, early and very strong interventions worked:

Cumulative deaths: Sweden is 968% higher
New deaths: Sweden is 833% higher
Cumulative cases: Sweden 450% higher
New cases: Sweden 887% higher

Keep in mind that all comparisons are properly per 100k in population. For all practical purposes Finland did as well. Denmark began well, but let down their guard (reducing interventions significantly in October and November) and is now paying a price – ergo raising their inventions once again.


*******


Examining the Danish response curves are very interesting, but that'll have to be another post.

[sv_pelagia]

No offense, but should this thread about Japanese pandemic spend most of its words on Sweden?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Do your quotes mean that you actually typed this, or is it just a summary for you. You posted "But that's almost a trivial point". Now you want your trivial comment to be taken trivially? You are blowing their situation off because you have data that its worse somewhere else. Japan is currently far worse off than they have been over this CV period. Hopefully they will quickly turn it around.

I really don't understand at all what you are saying. What exactly are we arguing about?

You said: Things are bad in Japan
I said (what I meant): Yes things are bad in Japan, but they are bad everywhere

I'm not "blowing their situation off". The entire world is struggling with this; Japan too. Hopefully they will turn it around.

Yes, it's bad, but it's all relative, isn't it? Their numbers could be the envy of almost the entire world:



If it's "bad" in Japan, how do you describe how it is in the rest of the world?

[El Pinguino]

I believe that in the eyes of the OP the only source of non fake news available for the plebs is the Economist.

This is what they have had to say about Sweden recently...
https://www.economist.com/the-world-...-will-continue
From the bit that non-subscribers may be unable to see..

'Yet over the summer Sweden’s infection rate fell along with those in the rest of Europe. When the pandemic’s second wave arrived in late August, it was Denmark that had the worst outbreak in the Nordic region. About half of Sweden’s covid-19 deaths had been in care homes, a result mainly of negligence and bad luck rather than policy. Swedes were moving around more than citizens of other Nordic states, but otherwise their social-distancing practices were not too different. Had they been right all along?

Probably not. For the economy, eschewing a lockdown merely postponed the damage. Sweden’s GDP and employment rate stayed buoyant in March but dropped when infections rose, even as the other Nordics rebounded. Containing the virus allowed the others to reopen their schools quickly, too. Tests in August showed that even in hard-hit Stockholm, less than a quarter of residents had antibodies to covid-19, far from the rates needed for herd immunity.'

The only other recent pieces are from October..
https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...ch-to-covid-19
(looking at that photo I would be more concerned about tobacco related health problems).

' Swedes’ freedom did not spare the economy, even though many deaths were among elderly people no longer working. Output in the second quarter alone shrank by 8.3%—also worse than the other Nordic countries. A high caseload is bad for the economy.'

[Kokanee]

One area that doesn't get much attention is contact tracing. In my view, this is the key to keeping the covid case numbers down. The contact tracers are the unsung heroes in Australia and NewZealand.

A lockdown is required only when and if the case numbers increase to a point where contact tracing is overwhelmed. If contact tracing isn't 100% complete, then the case numbers may climb to a level where hospitals are overwhelmed. This is often when the lockdowns are implemented. Too late.

Sorry - no charts or documents to back this up.