Japanese Approach to Pandemic Measures

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

The thread is discussing Japan, that you uniquely call out as having a great pandemic response. Enough said and no country scoring is needed or very interesting.

OK, then you have correctly called me out on that, for which I thank you, so I should correct what I said. Let me better say it like this:



1. Japan has an unusual and interesting pandemic response.


2. Japan has an exceptionally low level of infections and deaths.


I did not indeed mean to say -- Propostion 2 proves that Japan's pandemic response is "great". I am the one who constantly argues that outcomes are NOT direct result of measures, that measures are only one factor, you can't do "scoring" like a football league. But on the other hand, I wouldn't want to say that measures have NO effect on outcomes, either. PROBABLY, Japan, and South Korea, and Taiwan -- did at least some things right, to have such good outcomes compared to the rest of the world, maybe worth our studying. Same thing with Australia and New Zealand.



OK, does that now sound more reasonable?

[Taichungman]

A little off topic but still discussing the Virus.

Wow ! I just read all the post...lots of graphs and opinions. So, I'll give my opinion. Masks don't work; If you locked a few masked people in a room and one of them had the virus, then all of them would probably test positive by the end of a week or so. The only way for them all not to get the virus is for the virus carrier to have been locked out.
The only way a country could have contained it would have been to lock down all entry points into that country, which is almost impossible for big countries like the USA and Europe that have thousands of entry points. So, I'm not comparing apples to apples here. Taiwan has only four airports that fly international. It was easy to lock them down and not let anyone one else in early in the game. After that being selective on who comes in plus contact tracing and quarantines kept it under control.
No lock downs of people in Taiwan; no schools closed in Taiwan and no community spread. The only infected ones are coming in from other countries. And, whether they have it or not they get tested and go into quarantine for two weeks and then get tested again. You can't stop this with masks.
In my humble opinion the only way this will end is for a vaccine to come along that works.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

A little off topic but still discussing the Virus.

Wow ! I just read all the post...lots of graphs and opinions. So, I'll give my opinion. Masks don't work; If you locked a few masked people in a room and one of them had the virus, then all of them would probably test positive by the end of a week or so. The only way for them all not to get the virus is for the virus carrier to have been locked out.
The only way a country could have contained it would have been to lock down all entry points into that country, which is almost impossible for big countries like the USA and Europe that have thousands of entry points. So, I'm not comparing apples to apples here. Taiwan has only four airports that fly international. It was easy to lock them down and not let anyone one else in early in the game. After that being selective on who comes in plus contact tracing and quarantines kept it under control.
No lock downs of people in Taiwan; no schools closed in Taiwan and no community spread. The only infected ones are coming in from other countries. And, whether they have it or not they get tested and go into quarantine for two weeks and then get tested again. You can't stop this with masks.
In my humble opinion the only way this will end is for a vaccine to come along that works.

This is the kind of thing that shouldn't involve opinions, just science. Masks are partially effective in stopping transmission of the virus by virtue of the fact that they block a great deal of the droplets that carry the virus. When both sides wear a mask, their effectiveness goes up considerably. Obviously, for masks to work they have to be of adequate material (disposable surgical masks have been proven effective), worn properly (covering nose and snug fitting) and put on when needed (before entering a store). Coupled with social distancing, avoiding unnecessary exposure (parties, bars etc.) limited exposure time (in and out of stores quickly) and hand hygiene, masks are part of a pretty effective overall strategy to fight the virus. The "swiss cheese" approach, as mentioned in an earlier post.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

A little off topic but still discussing the Virus.

Wow ! I just read all the post...lots of graphs and opinions. So, I'll give my opinion. Masks don't work; If you locked a few masked people in a room and one of them had the virus, then all of them would probably test positive by the end of a week or so. The only way for them all not to get the virus is for the virus carrier to have been locked out.
The only way a country could have contained it would have been to lock down all entry points into that country, which is almost impossible for big countries like the USA and Europe that have thousands of entry points. So, I'm not comparing apples to apples here. Taiwan has only four airports that fly international. It was easy to lock them down and not let anyone one else in early in the game. After that being selective on who comes in plus contact tracing and quarantines kept it under control.
No lock downs of people in Taiwan; no schools closed in Taiwan and no community spread. The only infected ones are coming in from other countries. And, whether they have it or not they get tested and go into quarantine for two weeks and then get tested again. You can't stop this with masks.
In my humble opinion the only way this will end is for a vaccine to come along that works.

I think this is mostly reasonable, and thank you for the HUMBLE opinion -- far too little of that around here I mean, humility, and respect for the opinions of others.



I disagree about masks, however. In my own HUMBLE opinion, although the science on masking is inconclusive and certainly masking is not a silver bullet, I really do think that widespread mask use COMBINED WITH the array of other small, low-cost measures, like keeping distance, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, hand hygiene -- is really effective, even if it's not a total solution by itself. A decent mask, properly worn, will not only reduce your own spreading of the virus in case you are infected, but will reduce the amount of viral load you receive in case of a brief close encounter with an infected person. This for sure improves your odds, even if it is not by itself a total protection. Maybe not a total consensus of the experts on this, but such a weight of expert opinion saying this. I'll go with that, personally.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

OK, then you have correctly called me out on that, for which I thank you, so I should correct what I said. Let me better say it like this:



1. Japan has an unusual and interesting pandemic response.


2. Japan has an exceptionally low level of infections and deaths.


I did not indeed mean to say -- Propostion 2 proves that Japan's pandemic response is "great". I am the one who constantly argues that outcomes are NOT direct result of measures, that measures are only one factor, you can't do "scoring" like a football league. But on the other hand, I wouldn't want to say that measures have NO effect on outcomes, either. PROBABLY, Japan, and South Korea, and Taiwan -- did at least some things right, to have such good outcomes compared to the rest of the world, maybe worth our studying. Same thing with Australia and New Zealand.



OK, does that now sound more reasonable?

Infinately

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

A little off topic but still discussing the Virus.

Wow ! I just read all the post...lots of graphs and opinions. So, I'll give my opinion. Masks don't work; If you locked a few masked people in a room and one of them had the virus, then all of them would probably test positive by the end of a week or so. The only way for them all not to get the virus is for the virus carrier to have been locked out.
....

If you are confident in your opinion why setup a completely unrealistic test as a basis for failure? Masks help to reduce infections in limited exposure situations - like when you are typically dealing with strangers. No one is claiming they protect you while in an enclosed rooms for long periods.

[Taichungman]

Originally Posted by Paul L

If you are confident in your opinion why setup a completely unrealistic test as a basis for failure? Masks help to reduce infections in limited exposure situations - like when you are typically dealing with strangers. No one is claiming they protect you while in an enclosed rooms for long periods.

__________________________________________________ _


Hi Paul, It's just my view, whether it's a room or a country; I still have that opinion. More people in the world are now wearing masks than anytime in history; is it helping? You're right, it's probably helping some. The so called experts don't know the answers to control this virus; I don't either. Anyway, instead of trying to find fault in every ones opinion, just gives yours or don't.


Merry Christmas.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

OK, then you have correctly called me out on that, for which I thank you, so I should correct what I said. Let me better say it like this:



1. Japan has an unusual and interesting pandemic response.


2. Japan has an exceptionally low level of infections and deaths.


I did not indeed mean to say -- Propostion 2 proves that Japan's pandemic response is "great". I am the one who constantly argues that outcomes are NOT direct result of measures, that measures are only one factor, you can't do "scoring" like a football league. But on the other hand, I wouldn't want to say that measures have NO effect on outcomes, either. PROBABLY, Japan, and South Korea, and Taiwan -- did at least some things right, to have such good outcomes compared to the rest of the world, maybe worth our studying. Same thing with Australia and New Zealand.



OK, does that now sound more reasonable?

Fwiw, I have found many of your comparisons between countries most interesting and useful, with the huge caveat (as you've consistently highlighted) that a country's response is not necessarily indicative of outcome. Understanding why this is so goes to the heart of how all nations may improve their responses in the future, and that requires an analysis of their own responses and outcomes, as well as others who may be similarly situated in relevant ways. I respectfully disagree this has been presented as any sort of scorecard, and hope you are not deterred from such future postings as time and inclination may permit.

For similar reasons I also find Jimbo's "Stringency Index" data interesting and potentially useful, and hope he can develop his presentation so it may become more illuminating. The personal slights, slings & arrows only detract from its potential persuasiveness, for reasons similar to why politicization always does. Personal agendas always run the risk of compromising objectivity, and therefore credibility.

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You have a lot of faith in that "Response Index", and you've asserted that there are 160 (!) different measures, which go into calculating this index, yet when I read the official Working Paper, I only found 8.

I am open to the idea that I am just misinformed, and that this Response Index is more comprehensive than I thought, but I just can't find any such information, which talks about any 160 different measures.

I'm waiting.

You'd have had a response until "I'm waiting".

You are indeed misinformed, the response index is far more comprehensive (and there are several such indices), the "working paper" is not official or complete, and you ignored or parsed the other indices that were listed there. You really don't know what you don't know.

A low Covid Norwegian scene, waiting for the cows to... lol...

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

You'd have had a response until "I'm waiting".
You are indeed misinformed, the response index is far more comprehensive (and there are several such indices), the "working paper" is not official or complete, and you ignored or parsed the other indices that were listed there. You really don't know what you don't know.

I am very glad to be educated on this, and I will reconsider all of my arguments if this is really so. I am nothing if not intellectually honest. And when I'm proven wrong on something (which happens regularly), I am always grateful -- it means I get to learn something.

But I could find no such information about any 160 measures being considered. Just those 8. Some sources refer to, confusingly, 9. This official resource even gives the formulae, and mentions the 8 measures I listed, plus "H1", whatever that is: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/defau...cy%20Index.pdf

I can't find 160 anywhere. Since you apparently know something beyond what is available in the Internet, surely you can share?

Or if you just made a mistake -- that's OK too. We all do it. No one will think less of you for it.

[Taichungman]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

This is the kind of thing that shouldn't involve opinions, just science. Masks are partially effective in stopping transmission of the virus by virtue of the fact that they block a great deal of the droplets that carry the virus. When both sides wear a mask, their effectiveness goes up considerably. Obviously, for masks to work they have to be of adequate material (disposable surgical masks have been proven effective), worn properly (covering nose and snug fitting) and put on when needed (before entering a store). Coupled with social distancing, avoiding unnecessary exposure (parties, bars etc.) limited exposure time (in and out of stores quickly) and hand hygiene, masks are part of a pretty effective overall strategy to fight the virus. The "swiss cheese" approach, as mentioned in an earlier post.

_________________________________________________


My opinions come from observations and observation is part of science. I have observed that more people in the world are wearing mask now than any time in history. I have also observed that there are more cases of the virus now, even though more people are wearing mask.



I do agree, but with no science behind it, that mask probably help some. It should keep larger particles from entering your nose, mouth, eyes. In Taiwan as in most of Asia, people have been wearing mask for years just to keep larger particles of pollution out of their lungs when riding their scooter on the roads.


I don't believe our so called experts know what they don't know; they are still learning. That's all I have to say about it and I'm sticking to it.


Merry Christmas

[motion30]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

_________________________________________________


My opinions come from observations and observation is part of science. I have observed that more people in the world are wearing mask now than any time in history. I have also observed that there are more cases of the virus now, even though more people are wearing mask.



I do agree, but with no science behind it, that mask probably help some. It should keep larger particles from entering your nose, mouth, eyes. In Taiwan as in most of Asia, people have been wearing mask for years just to keep larger particles of pollution out of their lungs when riding their scooter on the roads.


I don't believe our so called experts know what they don't know; they are still learning. That's all I have to say about it and I'm sticking to it.


Merry Christmas

I always wear suntan lotion when I go out in the sun. My observation is I only get sunburnt during the daytime never at night,. This proves that suntan lotion is what causes the sunburn as I don't wear suntan lotion at night

[mitiempo]

Originally Posted by Taichungman

I do agree, but with no science behind it, that mask probably help some. It should keep larger particles from entering your nose, mouth, eyes

Masks are used to protect others. If I wear a mask someone near me is protected. If we both wear masks all the better.

That is proven by science.

[Taichungman]

Originally Posted by motion30

I always wear suntan lotion when I go out in the sun. My observation is I only get sunburnt during the daytime never at night,. This proves that suntan lotion is what causes the sunburn as I don't wear suntan lotion at night

_____________________________________________


It only proves your suntan lotion is not doing its intended purpose. You could consult an expert about this though.

[Taichungman]

Originally Posted by mitiempo

Masks are used to protect others. If I wear a mask someone near me is protected. If we both wear masks all the better.

That is proven by science.

________________________________________________


Sorry, that has not been proven to be fact about Covid-19. There is some evidence that wearing a Hazmat suit and N-95 mask may prevent the transmission of the virus. That is, as long as the wearer follows instructions for wearing the suit and mask and when taking it off and disposal.