Japanese Approach to Pandemic Measures

[Dockhead]

A fascinating article in the Economist:

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/...r=nl_special_4

A study in a nuanced approach to the pandemic, avoiding drastic unsustainable mass measures like lockdowns, concentrating on sustainable, targetted measures.

The Japanese took the trouble to actually look critically at, and drill into which measures actually produce results, and which don't. They came to the conclusion for example that cinemas are not dangerous, and did not close them. Restaurants and schools were never closed.

What is dangerous? "Dinner parties with booze; drinking and eating in groups of more than four; talking without masks at close quarters; living in dormitories and other small shared spaces; and using changing or break rooms."

As in the Nordic countries, the pandemic measures in Japan were almost entirely voluntary and based on social discipline and social trust.

As in the Nordic countries, scientists, not politicians, call the shots:

“'From the beginning we did not aim at containment,' says Oshitani Hitoshi, a virologist who sits on an expert panel advising the government. That would require identifying all possible cases, which is not feasible in a country of Japan’s size when the majority of infections produce mild or no symptoms, argues Mr Oshitani: 'Even if you test everyone once per week, you’ll still miss some.' Japan performs the fewest tests in the G7: an average of 270 a day for every million people, compared with 4,000 or so in America and Britain. . ."

There was no problem convincing the population to mask up.

I have written elsewhere that outcomes do not equal performance, as there are too many extraneous factors in how the pandemic develops in individual countries besides the government's measures. So -- I add, For Whatever It May be Worth, and won't claim that the outcome in Japan is a function of the intelligent and nuanced measures. But FWIW, the outcome so far in Japan is one of the best of any developed country, better than even Finland, better than Australia or New Zealand, with only 20 cumulative deaths per million, and minimal disruption of life, all despite the extremely high population density and high mobility of the population.

[AndyEss]

one of the theories of why east Asian countries have done so well with Covid19 is that these populations have been previously exposed to similar corona viruses in the past, and their populations already have some genetic changes protecting their people.
Sweden - which also took a rather laissez faire approach to the Covid19 pandemic has apparently recently abandoned this for more draconian controls due to poor results under the previous much more tolerant regime.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by AndyEss

one of the theories of why east Asian countries have done so well with Covid19 is that these populations have been previously exposed to similar corona viruses in the past, and their populations already have some genetic changes protecting their people.
Sweden - which also took a rather laissez faire approach to the Covid19 pandemic has apparently recently abandoned this for more draconian controls due to poor results under the previous much more tolerant regime.

Maybe a factor, albeit a small one since cities like NY and London are exposed to viruses from all over the world but still got hit hard. It's not the age of discovery anymore.

4% obesity vs 36% in the US could be another.

[motion30]

The total deaths in Japan and South Korea combined since the beginning has been exceeded by by deaths in the United States in just one day. Yesterday. This should give one pause

[El Pinguino]

That Economist article can only be read in full if you have a subscription.

As stated above by AndyEss the Japanese have been keen mask wearers for a very very long time.... if they, in a normal year, have a runny nose they wear a mask.

One of the strangest things is that mask wearing was not recommended from day one in 'the west'.

Re the rates...
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/japan/
While you may not agree with how Australia and NZ did it the reality is that New Zealand has about 25 deaths in a population of 5 million.... or 5 per million.
Australia would have been much the same if there had not been the massive quarantine blunder in Victoria.

Both countries are now effectively 'Covid Free' with only a handful of new cases now turning up .. all of which are returning residents who are in hotel quarantine.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/...-current-cases

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by AndyEss

. . .Sweden - which also took a rather laissez faire approach to the Covid19 pandemic has apparently recently abandoned this for more draconian controls due to poor results under the previous much more tolerant regime.

Where in the world did you get this idea? Some more journalists writing utter nonsense again, I suppose.

Sweden, like the other Nordic and Baltic countries, continues the same set of measures they started with, which were part of their pandemic plans which were developed over years of work.

Part of the plan of these measures is that they are flexibly changed as the epidemiological situation changes. The measures in the Nordic countries are not exactly "laissez faire" -- they are just different in approach, based much more on education and voluntary behavior of citizens with less reliance on using the force of law. They are broad based and do not depend on a single dramatic action like a lockdown.

You can't say that the results have been "poor". The Nordic & Baltic region has been far less affected than any other region of Europe. Sweden and Lithuania have had the worst of it, compared to the rest of the region, but are still much less affected than most European countries. Sweden's total death rate is about 750 per million, which is almost three times less than the worst affected European countries, and less than any large European country except Germany. Other Nordic countries have done even much better than that, especially Finland and Norway, which are the least affected countries altogether in Europe, using the same measures as Sweden.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

. . . While you may not agree with how Australia and NZ did it the reality is that New Zealand has about 25 deaths in a population of 5 million.... or 5 per million.
Australia would have been much the same if there had not been the massive quarantine blunder in Victoria.. . .

Australia and New Zealand have done fantastically well. Nobody can gainsay that. I am generally skeptical about lockdowns -- we've had plenty of discussions about it. Lockdowns have caused a lot of damage and apparently done little to control bad outbreaks in most countries where they have been used, especially in the U.S. In Europe, there is definitely a negative correlation between lockdowns and outcomes -- the harsher the lockdown, the worse the outcome, with few exceptions.

But Australia and New Zealand are different, and may be an example of how lockdowns really can be used to actually eradicate the virus and get a country back to normal life faster, causing less damage in the long run. Perhaps it could have been achieved there with more nuanced, less destructive measures. Or maybe not. Who am I to say? I try to be open minded and intellectually honest. We'll only really understand all this a year from now -- it's early to draw conclusions now. But in the mean time certainly it's great that Australia is not suffering the ravages most of the rest of the world are going through right now.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Yihang

Maybe a factor, albeit a small one since cities like NY and London are exposed to viruses from all over the world but still got hit hard. It's not the age of discovery anymore.

4% obesity vs 36% in the US could be another.

Not just New York and London, but mostly the whole developed world, has so much contact with each other, that I seriously doubt that a virus could spread in the Japanese population without spreading in Europe and the U.S. Just look how fast this coronavirus spread throughout the whole world -- why would other coronaviruses remain confined to East Asia?

My guess is that the excellent outcome in Japan is the result of an unknowable mix of factors including luck, but also probably (a) following a well developed pandemic plan (like the Nordic countries did) instead of making it up as they went along; (b) highly disciplined and well educated population (like the Nordic countries); (c) very rapid and decisive response, implementing the pandemic plan before community spread got going; and (d) altogether better measures which focussed on those things which objectively cause community spread, and which were sustainable. Probably something like that.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Not just New York and London, but mostly the whole developed world, has so much contact with each other, that I seriously doubt that a virus could spread in the Japanese population without spreading in Europe and the U.S. Just look how fast this coronavirus spread throughout the whole world -- why would other coronaviruses remain confined to East Asia?

My guess is that the excellent outcome in Japan is the result of an unknowable mix of factors including luck, but also probably (a) following a well developed pandemic plan (like the Nordic countries did) instead of making it up as they went along; (b) highly disciplined and well educated population (like the Nordic countries); (c) very rapid and decisive response, implementing the pandemic plan before community spread got going; and (d) altogether better measures which focussed on those things which objectively cause community spread, and which were sustainable. Probably something like that.

Interesting. The most striking thing is the cost of education in China is 10 times less than some of the other countries at the top. Sorry, I mean 100.......I did grow up in australia...

https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php

[Paul L]

Hopefully they will get a handle on the current outbreak. Seems to be heading up fairly steeply, both new cases per day and deaths.
.

[Wotname]

Not looking great for Japan ATM, in fact I would say it is looking sad. Let's hope they get the numbers soon by whatever methods they employ.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Yihang

Interesting. The most striking thing is the cost of education in China is 10 times less than some of the other countries at the top. Sorry, I mean 100.......I did grow up in australia...

https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php

Cost and outcome are not necessarily related. I don't know anything about education in China, but if it is like what education was like in the Soviet Union, it simply leaves ours in the dust.


It's not just about what you spend on it. It is even more a matter of cultural values.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Not looking great for Japan ATM, in fact I would say it is looking sad. Let's hope they get the numbers soon by whatever methods they employ.

"Looking sad" in Japan? Maybe from Planet Oz. But by any other standards the are doing GREAT:



19.6 daily cases per million, on a seven day rolling average. No European country comes even close, much less any U.S. state.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Hopefully they will get a handle on the current outbreak. Seems to be heading up fairly steeply, both new cases per day and deaths.
.

That's 3,000 daily cases in a country of 126 million people. Actually 2,500 on a seven day rolling average.

Germany, a country considered to be doing quite well, relatively speaking, the best of any large European country by far, has 22,000 daily cases -- in a country of 80 million people. Canada, a country of 38 million, or 3x less than Japan, has 6,500 daily cases.

You guys are comparing this to the situation in those very few countries who have been through a process of eradication of the virus. Japan never attempted this; they were following a different strategy, called "suppression", as in most of the rest of the world. They are doing superbly well at it.

[Shoalbay]

Quote from another poster: "...voluntary and based on social discipline and social trust.".

I agree. Believing that the government has the interest of citizens at heart drives a lot of cooperation and compliance.