Mah mah mah mah myyy carona (my experience with it and some thoughts)

[Creedence]

“Strict and inconvenient”?! If the conditions they describe in that brief article are accurate, this does reflect the damage that broad brush control measures can have. And sadly, roughly 1% of the people living like that are in the high risk category, the rest are forced to endure that lockdown because we aren’t yet effective at pinpointing who falls into that 1%.

I know there are a handful of caveats to the 1% figure, but I think the reasoning is sound...

The actual mortality rate appears to be a fraction of 1%, and its difficult to say if it’s truly the result of the virus because there are reports of people dying from the medical intervention itself. But since it’s impossible to categorize, let’s just summarize by saying it’s a sub one percent fatality rate.

There are also people who have been saved by medical intervention, and I don’t know what percent of those who fall critically ill recover, but I assume it’s the majority of critical cases. That is to say 50% or better.

Then there are the less severe, but still pretty bad cases like one of the members from earlier in this thread who will have lasting impacts from their body’s more aggressive immunoresponse to the virus. Unknown what percentage of sufferers that may be, but I’d assume that brings us to a full 1%.

Making the mental leap, because it’s safe to assume the virus has impacted a random sample of our population, the 1% can be extracted to mean that 1% of the greater population are susceptible to the critical immuno-overreaction.

Happy to subject that line of reasoning to peer review here.

If we could pin down with some degree of certainty what conditions make you an at-risk individual of being in that 1%, I think the lock-down or any other mitigation strategy would be more palatable because it could be more refined and potentially aimed at the high-risk population.

In the world I hope to live in, borders can open, travel returns to the pre-Covid freedom we enjoyed, etc. And that would be possible BECAUSE high-risk individuals could be made aware, and could work with healthcare providers to take appropriate steps to safeguard themselves. If you think about it, that’s the approach we take to virtually every other potentially deadly condition that a subset of the population face. For example, we haven’t eradicated peanuts simply because some can suffer a deadly reaction if exposed to them. We give them epi-pens and they are given enough knowledge of their condition that they can take measures to reduce or avoid exposure. (Caveat for those poised to pounce: a peanut is not a virus. It can be seen, so more easily avoided. Therefore the avoidance and or mitigation strategies for this virus should not be the same as those for a peanut).

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Creedence

“Strict and inconvenient”?! If the conditions they describe in that brief article are accurate, this does reflect the damage that broad brush control measures can have. And sadly, roughly 1% of the people living like that are in the high risk category, the rest are forced to endure that lockdown because we aren’t yet effective at pinpointing who falls into that 1%.

I know there are a handful of caveats to the 1% figure, but I think the reasoning is sound...

The actual mortality rate appears to be a fraction of 1%, and its difficult to say if it’s truly the result of the virus because there are reports of people dying from the medical intervention itself. But since it’s impossible to categorize, let’s just summarize by saying it’s a sub one percent fatality rate.

There are also people who have been saved by medical intervention, and I don’t know what percent of those who fall critically ill recover, but I assume it’s the majority of critical cases. That is to say 50% or better.

Then there are the less severe, but still pretty bad cases like one of the members from earlier in this thread who will have lasting impacts from their body’s more aggressive immunoresponse to the virus. Unknown what percentage of sufferers that may be, but I’d assume that brings us to a full 1%.

Making the mental leap, because it’s safe to assume the virus has impacted a random sample of our population, the 1% can be extracted to mean that 1% of the greater population are susceptible to the critical immuno-overreaction.

Happy to subject that line of reasoning to peer review here.

If we could pin down with some degree of certainty what conditions make you an at-risk individual of being in that 1%, I think the lock-down or any other mitigation strategy would be more palatable because it could be more refined and potentially aimed at the high-risk population.

In the world I hope to live in, borders can open, travel returns to the pre-Covid freedom we enjoyed, etc. And that would be possible BECAUSE high-risk individuals could be made aware, and could work with healthcare providers to take appropriate steps to safeguard themselves. If you think about it, that’s the approach we take to virtually every other potentially deadly condition that a subset of the population face. For example, we haven’t eradicated peanuts simply because some can suffer a deadly reaction if exposed to them. We give them epi-pens and they are given enough knowledge of their condition that they can take measures to reduce or avoid exposure. (Caveat for those poised to pounce: a peanut is not a virus. It can be seen, so more easily avoided. Therefore the avoidance and or mitigation strategies for this virus should not be the same as those for a peanut).

I think you are over thinking it, as they already know who is at risk.



Age
Obesity
Diabetes
History of Respiratory Illness
Long term Chronic illness
Life Threatening Illness


These will cover most of the fatalities or very bad immune responses, the ones that do not fall into these categories and are normal healthy individuals will be a very, very small percentage - For them its unfortunate and sh$t happens. I know someone who caught a virus last year and got septicemia - Had to be put in a medical coma and lost both legs below the knees and one hand - Life is not always fair.



FYI these are the same categories that will suffer badly from ANY Virus, such as the flu etc.

[Creedence]

I absolutely AM overthinking it.

I unfortunately think it’s simply too inflammatory to tell the masses that individuals suffering from the conditions you list (and I do agree with you) should be the ones taking precautions.

I think if there was a “task force” type of investigation that can then say with authority “these are the conditions that are likely to make you a one-percenter” people may begin accept that. But this is why I think the introduction of political discourse is so damaging to this issue. We humans seem unable to get out of our own way these days.

[hpeer]

UFO,

I think i you it could add to your list: living/working in confined conditions.
Such as Ling Term Care facility, meat packing plant, factory fish ship.

Once you have Identified those that fall into these criteria, especially multiplicative thereof, then you SHOULD be able to have a targeted response. That still entails sacrifice for those interacting with these groups. LTC facility providers need a great deal of assistance in modifying their facilities and the care providers need to be also isolated which means additional pay, quarantined housing, special food delivery measures etc. This would do a great deal to lessen the death toll but would still be a small fraction of the economic and social cost we are now incurring.

None of this is rocket science. These reasons have been largely known since late February or mid-March at the latest. And I don’t see anyone in the world taking these common sense steps. Maybe Sweden.

Why?

[sogin]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

How have you made out in flu season ? Never got the flu ? So how is it supposed to be different with this virus that it seems is less lethal than a few prior flu seasons we have had in the US and in the EU ?


If you dont want any risk of exposure to others, best stay in your bunker. Or hire someone to drop off your shopping at your door. Most of the people who have already died were already in nursing homes. They were not going to the supermarket, work or other public places as it was. apparently no-one cares about the less than sanitary care that they received and totally ineffective sterilization of the staff who run the place. But this is not news, we know that these places are frequently condemned by the local health dept and is the place where we send our elders to wait for God.

In the US, annual flu deaths since 2010 range from 12,000 to 60,000 each year. CONVID-19 has already killed 170,000 during the first 7.5 months of 2020 and we currently average about 1000 deaths/day. IT doesn't require guesses or models to predict that without successful mediation, the number of COVID-19 deaths will exceed 300,000 deaths - or about 5 fold more than the worst flu year since 2010. The only logical conclusion is the death rate from COVID-19 is NOT tantamount to a bad flu year. Taking the approach used in Sweden will lead to even greater loss of life.

[Westcliffe01]

I don't agree. The most vulnerable of the elderly are already gone. The death rate is going to slow because the virus is going to run out of exposed close to death people who have been propped up by modern medicine.
The fraud at hospitals is well known. We know of people who died in a car accident who's death was claimed to be by covid. In mynopinion, with the financial incentives handed out for covid deaths, It wouldn't surprise me that every death is currently a covid death.

[Creedence]

I’ve heard this story floating out there, but I never assigned much value to it until it happened to someone I know personally. My friend and his young son went to get the Covid test last month, signed in, ended up leaving before the test for whatever reason. He got the call about a week or two later with two positive test results. Again, I sort of rolled my eyes at that story when I read it, but this was a much more credible first-hard account.

Reality has room for both severe influxes of critically ill patients AND factual accounts of fraud, financial incentive, and most likely absolutely appallingly bad data management and tracking. It just makes it incredibly difficult to understand what reality actually is and then to make life decisions off that.

[Creedence]

I’ll just put this right here:

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-sends-b...153421016.html

Validates the foundation of my thoughts on this issue. I just hope we begin to see a growing emphasis on enhancing and targeting our control measures at some point.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

The fraud at hospitals is well known. We know of people who died in a car accident who's death was claimed to be by covid. In mynopinion, with the financial incentives handed out for covid deaths, It wouldn't surprise me that every death is currently a covid death.

Just to back you up on this one, it goes well beyond Hospitals!


Have a look at the WHO reporting form - Notice at the end of the form in relation to health outcome they are not asking if the patient died because of Covid, just whether they Recovered, Not Recovered, Death, Unknown, Other.


So they could have tested positive for covid a month earlier and then died of cancer - That's a Covid death now! For something so important, it seems very suspicious that the WHO has such a lax reporting form!


The site is:
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331234


The document is:
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/...=1&isAllowed=y

[Creedence]

Originally Posted by UFO

Just to back you up on this one, it goes well beyond Hospitals!


Have a look at the WHO reporting form - Notice at the end of the form in relation to health outcome they are not asking if the patient died because of Covid, just whether they Recovered, Not Recovered, Death, Unknown, Other.


So they could have tested positive for covid a month earlier and then died of cancer - That's a Covid death now! For something so important, it seems very suspicious that the WHO has such a lax reporting form!


The site is:
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/331234


The document is:
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/...=1&isAllowed=y

From my perspective... or any other rational observer’s perspective really, the discipline in data science has been nonexistent which does nothing more than inflame the relevance of opinion (which is trash).

I don’t need to delve into my background with data science in sociology, but I can tell you I have never seen a fumble like we are witnessing here.

[hpeer]

FWIW,
The UK, which sounds to have been using similar death assignments, anyone with a Covid positive test that died within 60 days of that test was declared a Covid fatality. They have chafed that to 28 days but then adjusted their death total down by 12%.

We am assuming similar here.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

I don't agree. The most vulnerable of the elderly are already gone. The death rate is going to slow because the virus is going to run out of exposed close to death people who have been propped up by modern medicine.
The fraud at hospitals is well known. We know of people who died in a car accident who's death was claimed to be by covid. In mynopinion, with the financial incentives handed out for covid deaths, It wouldn't surprise me that every death is currently a covid death.

Wait, there has got to be more than 160k elderly people in the US right? Just saying.

[Westcliffe01]

How does that saying go about running away from the bear: You dont need to be the fastest runner, you just have to make sure you are not the slowest runner.....


It wouldnt surprise me that after the news broke of what had been happening in nursing homes, that families have been retrieving their family members with the belief that they can take care of them better and offer them companionship at a time like this until things settle down.


There is also the remote possibility that hygene has been improved at the nursing homes by the care workers, but I would not be holding my breath... Lets not forget that many elderly people do their utmost to stay out of nursing homes in the first place and its usually the people with no family, no means, dementia and alzheimers who are found at the nursing homes. I know single women in their late 70's living alone on top of mountains in Colorado at 10 000ft whos exposure to the virus is practically zero till they make a trip into town every 2-3 months to re-supply. Being snowed in for 3 months is nothing unusual for these girls.

Originally Posted by Yihang

Wait, there has got to be more than 160k elderly people in the US right? Just saying.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

How does that saying go about running away from the bear: You dont need to be the fastest runner, you just have to make sure you are not the slowest runner.....


It wouldnt surprise me that after the news broke of what had been happening in nursing homes, that families have been retrieving their family members with the belief that they can take care of them better and offer them companionship at a time like this until things settle down.


There is also the remote possibility that hygene has been improved at the nursing homes by the care workers, but I would not be holding my breath... Lets not forget that many elderly people do their utmost to stay out of nursing homes in the first place and its usually the people with no family, no means, dementia and alzheimers who are found at the nursing homes. I know single women in their late 70's living alone on top of mountains in Colorado at 10 000ft whos exposure to the virus is practically zero till they make a trip into town every 2-3 months to re-supply. Being snowed in for 3 months is nothing unusual for these girls.

You know with a Starlink internet connection that sounds like my ideal life.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Creedence

From my perspective... or any other rational observer’s perspective really, the discipline in data science has been nonexistent which does nothing more than inflame the relevance of opinion (which is trash).

I don’t need to delve into my background with data science in sociology, but I can tell you I have never seen a fumble like we are witnessing here.

Are the worlds leading Authorities truly that Incompetent? or is there an agenda at hand?


I remember when this first started they were pushing the trollop of mortality rate by taking positive cases by deaths. Anyone with half a brain (which appears to take out a large % of the populace) knew what a croc this was, yet they carried on pushing it for quite a while, when there is no way in hell they did not know that it was BS.