Mah mah mah mah myyy carona (my experience with it and some thoughts)

[boatman61]

Todays papers in the UK say theres 5 times as many people dying of influenza as are dying of Covid-19.
While every death is a tragedy for someone there still lingers at the back of my mind a needless panic has been created and now being perpetuated by the media resulting in politicians running round like headless chickens reacting to muscle memory.. in the UK at least.
After over 6 months of this and the amount of so called confirmed cases I am surprised no studies appear to have been carried out on immunity levels after recovery.. as far as I am aware.

[Yihang]

The truth is always somewhere in between.

All I can say is I will be wearing a mask in a crowded area so I know I did my best to push this thing in the right direction.

[Westcliffe01]

https://swprs.org/studies-on-covid-1...rall-mortality



Example overlay of death rates for Switzerland, shows an increase in death rate for a short time, then dropping and still close to average for several previous years and not the highest year by any means.

[Creedence]

The Switzerland case study lends a ton of validity to the approach of letting nature run its course. If this virus has a roughly 98-99% survivability rate, does it not make sense to apply your mitigation efforts to the uniquely vulnerable as opposed to the entire population? (Up to the country and medical experts to define who falls into those categories).

And if a nation can close itself down and isolate successfully, how does it maintain that moving forward? That’s a serious question I’m hoping someone can tell me. How does that work?

[Yihang]

Westclif, thats not helping your argument though. The swiss locked down on Feb 28th, and it was a federalized response. I doubt that was done for influenza.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...in_Switzerland


Look. If you are hiking or jogging in a park do whatever you want. But if you are going to be on a bus or a supermarket. Please wear a mask for other people.

[Creedence]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Todays papers in the UK say theres 5 times as many people dying of influenza as are dying of Covid-19.
While every death is a tragedy for someone there still lingers at the back of my mind a needless panic has been created and now being perpetuated by the media resulting in politicians running round like headless chickens reacting to muscle memory.. in the UK at least.

After over 6 months of this and the amount of so called confirmed cases I am surprised no studies appear to have been carried out on immunity levels after recovery.. as far as I am aware.

To that point, I do feel the SARS data fueled a lot of the initial reaction to this. SARS being a coronavirus with an exceptional mortality rate fed an amplified fear among medical professionals when a novel CV with a higher R0 value popped up. In that context, the initial response makes a bit of sense.

But should we remain in that judo pose forever, or dispassionately digest new data as it comes in to inform future decision-making?


I know the answer to that rhetorical question, but I also sadly know how reality works.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Creedence

The Switzerland case study lends a ton of validity to the approach of letting nature run its course. If this virus has a roughly 98-99% survivability rate, does it not make sense to apply your mitigation efforts to the uniquely vulnerable as opposed to the entire population? (Up to the country and medical experts to define who falls into those categories).

And if a nation can close itself down and isolate successfully, how does it maintain that moving forward? That’s a serious question I’m hoping someone can tell me. How does that work?

It comes down to this doesn't it. The nature taking its course approach. All I can say if given the choice I'd rather be in a place that did not prescribe to that approach. But maybe i'm just weak and need someone to show me with overwelming force the error of my ways.

[Creedence]

Yihang, you and I (and all the rest of us) are living in unprecedented times. I respect your sound approach and commitment to mitigating this thing in the seemingly best way that an individual can. There’s not a whole lot more we can do at our level than that.

[Westcliffe01]

Every lock down is not the same. Some are crippling to small businesses and others dont even close schools down at all. The US with its highly varied state responses is a perfect example of a total cluster of a reaction.

Where I live (Michigan) the lock down is going to have an economic impact for many years to come. Truly essential operations have been shut down (Secretary of state has basically been offline for months now and the first appointment I can get is in October). Why it is permissible for state employees to close down shop while getting paid is completely illogical to me. But people who are willing to work cannot.

I have not been to my companies office since late March. Its possible I will never be back there and working at my kitchen table is going to be the way of the future. But that is after a 30% reduction in workforce at the end of April. How it would suck to be one of those SOB's....

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Creedence

To that point, I do feel the SARS data fueled a lot of the initial reaction to this. SARS being a coronavirus with an exceptional mortality rate fed an amplified fear among medical professionals when a novel CV with a higher R0 value popped up. In that context, the initial response makes a bit of sense.

But should we remain in that judo pose forever, or dispassionately digest new data as it comes in to inform future decision-making?


I know the answer to that rhetorical question, but I also sadly know how reality works.

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html

I rememeber the media makinga big fuss when covid number surpassed SARs, which by the way had a little over 8000 confirmed cases world wide and 700 or so death.

I don't think there is really much more that can be done in the states. It's everywhere and seems the consensus among a lot of groups is similar to what you westclif are suggesting.

I hope a vaccine is developed soon.

[Yihang]

By all mean open up businesses. Everything is open in China. But mandate mask wearing for the sake of the community.

It takes one person in a trader joes to **** it up for everyone.

[Creedence]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

Every lock down is not the same. Some are crippling to small businesses and others dont even close schools down at all. The US with its highly varied state responses is a perfect example of a total cluster of a reaction.

Where I live (Michigan) the lock down is going to have an economic impact for many years to come. Truly essential operations have been shut down (Secretary of state has basically been offline for months now and the first appointment I can get is in October). Why it is permissible for state employees to close down shop while getting paid is completely illogical to me. But people who are willing to work cannot.

I have not been to my companies office since late March. Its possible I will never be back there and working at my kitchen table is going to be the way of the future. But that is after a 30% reduction in workforce at the end of April. How it would suck to be one of those SOB's....

And that’s really the crux of the issue. Broad brush application of knee-jerk reactions... that are then assigned some sort of political motivation, then vehemently fought over as an us-vs-them issue.

We’ve lost our ability to evaluate data (although I could write a book about the faults in data science applied to this issue, but I won’t because I don’t want to offend this thread’s first responder with an “entire LONG post“ again!!). Without basing decisions on a dispassionate evaluation of data, we are collectively no better than banana republics ruling on a whim.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Yihang

https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html

I rememeber the media makinga big fuss when covid number surpassed SARs, which by the way had a little over 8000 confirmed cases world wide and 700 or so death.

I don't think there is really much more that can be done in the states. It's everywhere and seems the consensus among a lot of groups is similar to what you westclif are suggesting.

I hope a vaccine is developed soon.

Well I for one will not be accepting a vaccine, never had a flu shot, Dengue nor Yellow Fever.. as for Malaria, grew up in a country where a G&T was the accepted prevention..
My immune system has got me this far, I'm still a fast healer so my life, my choice..

[Westcliffe01]

I will not be the slightest bit surprised if those who do not take the "mandatory" vaccine are prohibited from boarding airplanes and cruise ships. Its quite possible that continued employment may also be subject to vaccination, just imagine how many state and federal employees there are ???

Originally Posted by boatman61

Well I for one will not be accepting a vaccine, never had a flu shot, Dengue nor Yellow Fever.. as for Malaria, grew up in a country where a G&T was the accepted prevention..
My immune system has got me this far, I'm still a fast healer so my life, my choice..

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Westcliffe01

I will not be the slightest bit surprised if those who do not take the "mandatory" vaccine are prohibited from boarding airplanes and cruise ships. Its quite possible that continued employment may also be subject to vaccination, just imagine how many state and federal employees there are ???

Yet another issue to divide the country. haha. 3 months to go.