Mutated strain of Covid-19 Found in London.

[FabioC]

What is truly worrisome about this mutation is that it involves the very mechanism/receptor on which the RNA vaccines are based; thus, there is a legitimate scientific concern on whether this mutation may be resistant to the vaccine. At this time, there is no way to tell either way, considerably more testing and research is needed.
A scenario where the vaccines were shown to be ineffective against this mutation, which is also much more transmissible than the "original" virus, would be a major set back. By now, many countries in the world have amply demonstrated that they are incapable of containing this pandemic without an effective vaccine.

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

....
1. Given the Wuhan virus' low mortality rate, it may end up that each season there is a new version, like the flu.
....:

This strain developed in England. Why aren’t you calling it the London virus? Or do you think the Chinese intended this mutation too?

[grantmc]

There have been many variants of covid19 evolve during the past 12 months. The genetic variants are the basis of much of the tracing. Scientists do a DNA test on a patient in a geographic cluster and if the variant is the same then we know that person has become infected from the same source, But if not then there is another source spreading the disease in that same physical area.

DNA testing is a major tool in the tracing war.

The same logic is being applied where scientists are testing sewage for covid (and other diseases). Again in simple terms it's about finding variants to determine the number of sources, and having an alternative tool to measure infection rates.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by FabioC

...there is a legitimate scientific concern on whether this mutation may be resistant to the vaccine. At this time, there is no way to tell either way

The UK is already vaccinating at a good clip, so I imagine it will quickly be revealed whether the vaccine blocks the new strain as well.

[joelhemington]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

Yes, absolutely right. I already made that correction in my next post (just above yours), but really good eyes. You're good. It is false negatives, which means of course, that this will miss positives and encourage spread.

Somehow, I can't see how they can possibly develop a vaccination given that they can't even test for this virus effectively. I fear we may be looking at herd immunity as frightening as the implications of that are.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Adelie

This strain developed in England. Why aren’t you calling it the London virus? Or do you think the Chinese intended this mutation too?

You are partially correct. The strain was identified in Great Britain. Whether or not it developed there remains to be seen.

Having said that, viruses are traditionally labeled based upon where they were first identified. Examples include the Spanish flu, norovirus (Norwalk, Ohio, U.S.), Marburg (A lab in Marburg, Germany even though the virus was from the Lake Victoria region of Africa), West Nile (West Nile region of Uganda), etc, etc, etc.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by joelhemington

Somehow, I can't see how they can possibly develop a vaccination given that they can't even test for this virus effectively. I fear we may be looking at herd immunity as frightening as the implications of that are.

You ask a good question. Normally a vaccine takes years to develop and test. One must remember that often these are based upon previous research if there are similar viruses. In this case they spent years working on SARS, which is also a corona virus, as well as other corona viruses such as the common cold.

It is possible that the research based upon these may have yielded significant working results.

Having said that, there are questions about the test results. In the U.S, the CDC has an interesting statement on their website that states if you test positive, you MAY have the Wuhan virus, but you may not. Some of the earliest tests were not very good at detecting whether or not you had the virus and had very large rates of false positives and negatives. Even now, some tests are much better than others.

I wouldn't worry about herd immunity. The virus has a very low mortality rate which is pretty close to that of the common flu.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

Having said that, viruses are traditionally labeled based upon where they were first identified. Examples include the Spanish flu.....

If tradition is to be followed, in that case we should rename the Spanish Flu the Kansas Flu.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

Having said that, viruses are traditionally labeled based upon where they were first identified.

They WERE named that way, but no longer. Traditionally we also used to keep slaves, and women couldn't vote, but most of us have moved forward without problems.

[B23iL23]

BS

U.S Flu deaths 2019-2020 24,000 – 62,000
U.S. Covid deaths 318,000

Pretty close my ass.

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

..I wouldn't worry about herd immunity. The virus has a very low mortality rate which is pretty close to that of the common flu.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

If tradition is to be followed, in that case we should rename the Spanish Flu the Kansas Flu.

The history of the Spanish flu is pretty interesting. Kansas has been listed as the location of the first known case, however analysis of it suggests that it began much earlier and likely around 1915. There were reports of the flu in European army camps and surrounding areas in 1916 and 1917. Currently, some scientists at the Pasteur Institute feel it originated in China.

The reason for the name Spanish Flu is that the virus was first publicly identified in Spain, as they were not being censored due to the Great War.

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by ArmyDaveNY

You are partially correct. The strain was identified in Great Britain. Whether or not it developed there remains to be seen.
Examples include the Spanish flu,..

The Spanish flu did not 'develop' (whatever that means) in Spain in WWI.
The Spanish media were free to report the disease as Spain was neutral. Both Central and Allied Powers thought that reporting the flu would be bad for morale.

Here's the comprehensive back story.

[Capn Jimbo]

Wow. It didn't even take one page for this very serious thread to go far, far off topic. With this mutation we are facing the most serious threat of rapid spread to date, and the debate is about the naming of the Spanish Flu?


Good grief. We truly are doomed... another round for the end of the bar...

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by B23iL23

BS

U.S Flu deaths 2019-2020 24,000 – 62,000
U.S. Covid deaths 318,000

Pretty close my ass.

Your figures may be correct, but do not tell the full story. The two viruses' mortality rates are pretty close if one actually looks at the science.

The the virus typically has a mortality rate of around two tenths of one percent, which is pretty low. The flu is typically a little less. There are exceptions of course, Spanish Flu being a notable exception.

The numbers of deaths in the U.S. that are attributed to the virus are suspect. A number of deaths are now attributed as death WITH covid, as opposed to death by covid. A number of reports are saying the number of dearths from this is less. The figures vary but I have seen figures varying from half to 1/10th. Time will tell what the exact numbers are.

We must also keep in mind that the numbers are deceiving regardless of their accuracy. The overwhelming majority of those who are dying have multiple underlying health issues. The good news is the healthy, normal people are at a very low risk from this. In the U.S., the CDC themselves says that the safest place for children is in school.

Certainly only time will tell if the low mortality rate continues as the virus mutates.

[endlesspursuit]

Originally Posted by B23iL23

BS

U.S Flu deaths 2019-2020 24,000 – 62,000
U.S. Covid deaths 318,000

Pretty close my ass.

If we knew the real numbers I might agree with you.....but why has the CDC stopped counting flu cases period?? Why are the flu deaths so low the year covid showed up?? They count everyone who dies with covid as covid death but would they have died anyway or with the flu?? The numbers are quite skewed and therefore unreliable. I really wish the governments would report **** straight up and not play games with the public. It would make for a better conversation all around.