Mutated strain of Covid-19 Found in London.

[Yihang]

Sounds a little like 28 days later.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12...-virus-variant

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846

--------

"Three things are coming together that mean it is attracting attention:

1.It is rapidly replacing other versions of the virus

2. It has mutations that affect part of the virus likely to be important

3. Some of those mutations have already been shown in the lab to increase the ability of the virus to infect cells"


--------

"The variant is unusually highly mutated.

The most likely explanation is the variant has emerged in a patient with a weakened immune system that was unable to beat the virus.

Instead their body became a breeding ground for the virus to mutate."

oh ****.

[IslandHopper]

May have already moved on from London....

New UK mutation of coronavirus detected in returned travellers in NSW Australia

https://www.9news.com.au/national/co...-in-nsw_211220

A new strain of coronavirus currently spreading across the UK has been detected in returned travellers in Australia.

NSW Health Chief Medical Officer Dr Kerry Chant confirmed today there is concern about the mutation, but it is not circulating in the community.

"I'm advised that we've had a couple of UK returned travellers with the particular mutations you're referring to," Dr Chant said in response to a question about the strain.

"Can I be very clear that the Avalon cluster strain does not have those mutations.

"But the key point, regardless, is that we need to treat all people with that end-to-end process of making sure that they're not coming in contact and there is not a risk of exposure to any residents in New South Wales."

About 60 per cent of cases in London are believed to be due to this new mutation, and the capital city now has the highest infection rate in England.

"There's no evidence to suggest it is more lethal or causes more severe illness," UK Prime Minister Boris Johnston stressed.

He added there was no proof that vaccines will be less effective against the new strain.

England's chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, said the UK has alerted the World Health Organisation that the new variant identified this week appears to be accelerating the spread of COVID-19.

The government's scientific advisers came to that conclusion based on preliminary modelling figures, and they are continuing to analyse the available data, he said.

Viruses mutate regularly, and scientists have found thousands of different mutations among samples of the virus causing COVID-19.

But many of these changes have no effect on how easily the virus spreads or how severe symptoms are.

UK strain needs to be 'put in context'

Australia's Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly said there have been thousands of mutations of the coronavirus, and the new mutation needs to be "put in context".

"The particular strain circulating, especially in the south-east of England at the moment, has particular mutations related to the spike protein, important because it is the way the virus gets into the cells and the particular part of the virus that the vaccines are attacking, all the vaccines, relate to the spike protein," Professor Kelly said.

"There is no definite evidence that this is a significant change."

He said higher rates of transmission in the south-west of the UK could be due to a number of other factors, including people moving around ahead of Christmas and the fact it is winter there.

Professor Kelly noted anyone entering Australia from the UK is going into hotel quarantine.

[goboatingnow]

U.K. ro ro freight and channel tunnel transport has ceased for 48 hours.

[UFO]

I really struggle to see humans containing this virus - Man against nature is a big take on and looking at the infection rates in the UK where it really is out of control and the various lock downs are having minimal effect due to various issues, I think nature has the upper hand at the moment, but fortunately for us we also have nature on our side and a natural herd immunity will develop and long term resilience to the virus will be created - Unfortunately nothing comes for free and there will be causalities.



I have seen figures where they are saying that currently there are over 500,000 non tested asymptomatic active cases in the UK and this will only get worse as these asymptomatic people spread it without realising it.



Also I think people are jaded by the continual lockdowns...


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-55385130

[Capn Jimbo]

A public health perspective:


1. The new mutation is very serious, and from 40-70% more infectious.

2. The usual failing countries are out of control already, with the holidays just ahead. The health systems are overburdened now and battleground triage can be expected.

3. Twenty seven countries banned flights from the UK as of this morning, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, and Switzerland. The US has not. Sweden has not, but is expected to later today.

Such bans will not stop the spread, but may buy a little time.

4. Testing, tracing and quarantine have not been sufficient in the usual countries (see graph). The current two strains are not being controlled. The new mutant will make things much worse, if that's possible.

5. The PCR tests are the gold standard; sadly some of them may not find the new mutation, resulting in false positives.

6. The piecemeal compromise approaches differ from country to country, region to region, state to state, city to city. This is a prescription for failure.

7. Other variants are already known in Spain, South Africa and Denmark. It is fair to anticipate more, and we can only hope that vaccination proceeds at a record pace before a much more deadly mutation occurs.

Since the first world countries have selfishly captured enough vaccine for only their populations, this is not likely.


**************

In sum, this all was both predictable and feared in public health. The outcome is not certain at this time, but the stakes have just been raised. We are in a race that will demand an international, coordinated and cooperative wartime approach.

The shortcomings of profit-driven privatized capitalism and authoritarianism alone are being revealed and may need to be challenged if we are to survive.

[etoimene]

BREXIT negotiations anyone?

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

5. The PCR tests are the gold standard; sadly some of them may not find the new mutation, resulting in false positives.

Sorry, should be "false NEGATIVES". This would greatly inhibit already insufficient testing and tracing.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

... 5. The PCR tests are the gold standard; sadly some of them may not find the new mutation, resulting in false positives.
7. Other variants are already known in Spain, South Africa and Denmark. It is fair to anticipate more, and we can only hope that vaccination proceeds at a record pace before a much more deadly mutation occurs...

5. Wouldn't a test's "failure to find" result in false negatives?
7. Thanks. Though not surprised, I didn't know that.

[Lake-Effect]

I'm waiting to see whether this new variant produces more serious illness/deaths. There is a chance that this is just the virus turning into something milder like a bad cold or the flu, and it might become more prevalent than the initial version. It would be an evolutionary step forward for the virus, and also better for us if it's less severe. I recall this possibility being discussed back in the spring.

If its the same or more severe... oh sh!t, as a previous poster mentioned.

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by GordMay

5. Wouldn't a test's "failure to find" result in false negatives?
7. Thanks. Though not surprised, I didn't know that.

Yes, absolutely right. I already made that correction in my next post (just above yours), but really good eyes. You're good. It is false negatives, which means of course, that this will miss positives and encourage spread.

[MrChris]

Mutations were predicted at the very start of all this, and, along with a steadily rising death toll, there was only one obvious course of action and that was to lock down hard and rapidly. Rejecting the lead of China and other Asian countries was criminally irresponsible.
The safest place now may well be out at sea cruising, its an ill wind...

[boatman61]

Make a change from all the false positives of the last 9+ months..

[Capn Jimbo]

Early public health impressions:


1. The mutation is far more infectious, but so far seems no more or less virulent (damaging). For now consider that this mutation is about the same as the first (two) strains, but spreads MUCH faster. R0=1.4 (explosive) and FAR more infectious, spreading earlier and faster.

2. Considering that the failing countries face being overwhelmed by the holiday, this explosive new mutation makes breakdown much more likely, if not certain.

3. So far it appears the current vaccines will work or can be modified effectively. Further mutations (and there are thousands) may not be so.

[Thumbs Up]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

Early public health impressions:...........
3. So far it appears the current vaccines will work or can be modified effectively. Further mutations (and there are thousands) may not be so.

Will work to do what exactly?
Will covid-19 vaccines save lives? Current trials aren’t designed to tell us
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037
These Coronavirus Trials Don’t Answer the One Question We Need to Know
We may not find out whether the vaccines prevent moderate or severe cases of Covid-19.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/22/o...ronavirus.html

Is this new variant scare just spin?
“We are still dealing with very thin evidence at the moment about this variant,” Sharon Peacock, the director of the UK COVID-19 Genomics Consortium (COG-UK), which randomly sequences positive COVID-19 samples around from the UK and discovered this variant, tells The Independent. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...ly-in-uk-68292

I keep seeing a chart with the new variant in orange saying it was detected with the common 3 gene PCR test. Sounds suspicious to me. Mass PCR testing on asymptomatic people as evidence of rising case counts is suspicious.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by MrChris

Mutations were predicted at the very start of all this...

Spot on. This is what viruses so, and indeed life in general. This should not be a surprise, especially if one looks at the history of viruses.

Viruses have short generation times, and many have high mutation rates. When you combine this with natural selection, they can usually adapt quickly to changes in their host environments. Combine this with the fact that they produce many offspring and it is no wonder that these mutations are quickly passed on.

We have seen this in most viruses in the past and there is no reason to think that this will not continue now and in the future.

Whether the vaccine works remains to be seen. The big questions is whether it can be distributed quickly enough to make a difference, especially given the ability of viruses to change.

What does the future hold? There are several possibilities.
1. Given the Wuhan virus' low mortality rate, it may end up that each season there is a new version, like the flu.
2. The vaccine may work and solve the problem.
3. The virus continues to mutate and eventually it goes away on its own.
4. The people eventually get herd immunity and it becomes something we just live with.
5. This is actually the beginning of the zombie apocalypse! Remember rule #2, always use the double tap!!!