New Variant(s)

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

... I am triply vaccinated because the data showed a reduced chance of serious infection. However, I was surprised to see in the Jan 19th CDC report that natural immunity provides so much more protection than double vaccination...

CDC - Cases and Hospitalization by Vaccination Status

Your conclusions seem to somewhat differ from the CDC's. Dont feel badly, since many of the media seemed to get it wrong, as well.

On January 19, 2022, the CDC posted this report online as an MMWR Early Release [same link as yours].

Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis — California and New York, May–November 2021

Originally Posted by CDC

... What is added by this report?
During May–November 2021, case and hospitalization rates were highest among persons who were unvaccinated without a previous diagnosis. Before Delta became the predominant variant in June, case rates were higher among persons who survived a previous infection than persons who were vaccinated alone. By early October, persons who survived a previous infection had lower case rates than persons who were vaccinated alone.

What are the implications for public health practice?
Although the epidemiology of COVID-19 might change as new variants emerge, vaccination remains the safest strategy for averting future SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations, long-term sequelae, and death. Primary vaccination, additional doses, and booster doses are recommended for all eligible persons. Additional future recommendations for vaccine doses might be warranted as the virus and immunity levels change...

➥ https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

[Zippee]

Looked at the CDC numbers, and I agree - not at all easy to interpret. But even if a previous infection imparted a minor temporary advantage, what's the point? This assumes that you get a so-called "minor" infection (never mind the 30-40% with long haul effects) - but to get this "minor" infection you have to take the much higher risk of hospitalization, serious illness and death.

The important observation is that by far, the hospitals are overrun with the unvaccinated.

Speaking of vaccination, Dock's wonderful epidemiologist just sent this in her newsletter regarding the pros and cons of another booster with a still evolving Covid:

There is not enough evidence that we need another booster. Boosters are working fantastically well against severe disease during the Omicron wave. For example, in the U.K., we see that even 4-6 months after inoculation, efficacy of a booster against hospitalization is 75-85% compared to 2-dose series, which has an efficacy of 30-35%. This is even the case with BA.2 (sister lineage of Omicron), where there is lessimmunity escape than BA.1. The same goes for those that received the original J&J with one booster. A study out of South Africa found that a second dose of J&J was 85% effective against hospitalization during a time when Omicron was circulating, compared with 63% after one dose.In addition, T-cells, our second line of defense that keeps us out of the hospital, are mutating but have much less evolutionary pressure than our first line of defense (antibody protection). So there’s also a chance the current vaccine series will continue to protect against severe disease for a while.

Roll-out another booster vaccine. On the other hand, Israel already rolled out a second booster (not Omicron specific formula) among those aged 60+ years. The Israel Health Ministry just released data showing a 3-fold decrease in severe disease among those with 60+ years with 2 boosters compared to 1 booster during the Omicron wave (see figure below). Looking forward, there’s a good chance the next variant will come from Omicron (although, because we lack a ladder-like pattern, we could be wrong). If Omicron had enough mutations for partial antibody escape, the next variant may have full immune escape. Boosting with an Omicron-specific formula would then significantly prepare us for what is to come.

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...ntent=47857213

[GordMay]

New research shows Moderna may provide slightly more protection against breakthrough infections
As booster shots roll out, Moderna may be a better choice, for many over the age of 30, because of its slightly longer protection against infection.
A study [1] published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) last week shows adults who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine had a lower risk of hospitalization, compared to those who received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The research used data from March to August of last year, when Delta was the dominant variant.

[1] “Comparison of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 Vaccines on Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Death During the Delta-Predominant Period” ~ by Lindsey Wang et al
“Immune responses to mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccines decline by 6 months after vaccination, although antibody titers are higher with mRNA-1273.1,2 (Moderna). Comparison of vaccinated nonimmunocompromised adults showed lower risk of hospitalization for recipients of mRNA-1273 (Moderna) than BNT162b2 (Pfizer) during March-August 2021.3 ..."
➥ https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2788408

[Zippee]

New research shows Moderna may provide slightly more protection against breakthrough infections
As booster shots roll out, Moderna may be a better choice, for many over the age of 30, because of its slightly longer protection against infection.
A study [1] published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) last week shows adults who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine had a lower risk of hospitalization, compared to those who received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The research used data from March to August of last year, when Delta was the dominant variant.

[1] “Comparison of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 Vaccines on Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Death During the Delta-Predominant Period” ~ by Lindsey Wang et al
“Immune responses to mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccines decline by 6 months after vaccination, although antibody titers are higher with mRNA-1273.1,2 (Moderna). Comparison of vaccinated nonimmunocompromised adults showed lower risk of hospitalization for recipients of mRNA-1273 (Moderna) than BNT162b2 (Pfizer) during March-August 2021.3 ..."
➥ https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2788408

It's a shame this study is dated, as it is primarily in re Delta, not Omicron. While the advantage of Moderna might have been only modestly better, the real news - again not currently relevant - the real news is that both vaccines faded by six months, ergo requiring boosters.

The study does not address Omicron 1 & 2, which are now the variants we are dealing with. We have no idea what the differences will be. We do know that at least one booster is needed, that the poorer southern countries will continue to provide the time and opportunity for new variants which will absolutely develop. More current studies point out that the variants to come may be even more infectious, and may render our current vaccines - incuding Moderna - ineffective.

The nasty fact is that by the time we know what the current vaccines actually accomplished with a now irrelevant Delta, the virus has moved on and the conclusions are not valid anymore.


Thanks for the links...

[Anders]

Originally Posted by GordMay

New research shows Moderna may provide slightly more protection against breakthrough infections
As booster shots roll out, Moderna may be a better choice, for many over the age of 30, because of its slightly longer protection against infection.
A study [1] published in the peer-reviewed Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) last week shows adults who received two doses of the Moderna vaccine had a lower risk of hospitalization, compared to those who received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The research used data from March to August of last year, when Delta was the dominant variant.

[1] “Comparison of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 Vaccines on Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Death During the Delta-Predominant Period” ~ by Lindsey Wang et al
“Immune responses to mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccines decline by 6 months after vaccination, although antibody titers are higher with mRNA-1273.1,2 (Moderna). Comparison of vaccinated nonimmunocompromised adults showed lower risk of hospitalization for recipients of mRNA-1273 (Moderna) than BNT162b2 (Pfizer) during March-August 2021.3 ..."
➥ https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2788408

The UK week 4 report showed Moderna having slightly better protection than the Pfizer vaccine against Omicron. The AZ vaccine had the least protection.

[NPCampbell]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Your conclusions seem to somewhat differ from the CDC's. Dont feel badly, since many of the media seemed to get it wrong, as well.

On January 19, 2022, the CDC posted this report online as an MMWR Early Release [same link as yours].

Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis — California and New York, May–November 2021



➥ https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm

I don't feel badly. My conclusions are not from the media. They are from skills that I learned in elementary school on how to read simple graphs like the ones provided in the CDC article. The tough stuff for me to interpret was the relative rates of risk between cohorts. I relied on interpretation of the data by Joe Rogan to get a better understanding of it. Just kidding.

From the graphs and data provided by the CDC, it looks like previous infection provides equal or greater protection than double vaccination alone.
It doesn't look like it requires explanation. Am I missing something here?

To avoid mass hysteria, I'll state it again. I am triply vaccinated. I believe vaccination provides the greatest protection for those not previously infected.

[lonesoldier0408]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Absolutely Mike, very well said! All so.

We are all so, so tired of it, that of course we have had quite enough, and that's when the bugaboo of "confirmation bias" sneaks in the side door. An article pops up - often without peer review or professional consensus - and we really do want to believe it.

You're right. We live in a world without real unity, and where the southern, poorer countries are still undervaccinated, providing both the victims and time to develop ever more variations. Nor can we ignore that the mega-pharmaceutical companies are in no hurry to open license and/or provide the low cost vaccines - as unending variants mean an unending series of updated vaccine sales and continuing record profits.

The result so far of dual crises is one of the greatest re-distributions of wealth in centuries.

To me Covid (and the much ignored climate crisis) together provide the world the opportunity to work together and survive, or else...

From personal experiences with battle buddies.
“Was Vaccinated, caught COVID. Two weeks hospitalization and 4 weeks in a rehabilitation facility.”
Another peer having survived multiple bypass surgery, (Non-vaccinated) “I caught it, treated at home. Now my beer tastes funny.”
Young lady from Florida, vaccinated and now loosing her legs.

Your mileage may vary.

[davil]

hearth breaking

self-explanatory


https://www.latimes.com/california/s...hospital-staff

[GordMay]

How sneezing hamsters sparked a COVID outbreak in Hong Kong

Hamsters are only the second species known to have spread SARS-CoV-2 to humans.
Pet hamsters probably carried the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 into Hong Kong and sparked a human COVID-19 outbreak.
A genomic analysis [1] of viral samples from the rodents seems to support earlier indications that a pet shop was the source of the outbreak, which has so far infected about 50 people and led to the culling of some 2,000 hamsters across the city.
But “to be fair to the hamsters”, people are still much more likely to be infected by each other than by pets, says virologist and study co-author Leo Poon.

More about ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00322-0

Preprint:
[1] “Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (Variant Delta) from Pet Hamsters to Humans and Onward Human Propagation of the Adapted Strain: A Case Study” ~ by Hui-Ling Yen et al
Abstract ➥ https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4017393
Full ➥ https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/deliver...pdf&INDEX=TRUE



“The search for animals harbouring coronavirus — and why it matters"
Scientists are monitoring pets, livestock and wildlife to work out where SARS-CoV-2 could hide, and whether it could resurge.
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00531-z

[GordMay]

"Why we need random COVID sampling” ~ by Natalie Dean

One in four SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States has been reported. Across Africa, the average is closer to one in seven. All this undercounting renders many important questions unanswerable, argues biostatistician Natalie Dean. Random sampling, such as that done fortnightly of around 180,000 people across the United Kingdom, is essential to guide policy and personal decisions, she writes.

Here ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00336-8

[GordMay]

Studies in humans have found significantly reduced odds of severe disease, and death, for the Omicron-infected compared to the Delta-infected.
But, even “mild” Omicron has caused more than 2,400 deaths in the U.S. per day, on average, in the past week.
Lab studies suggests that, compared to other variants, Omicron gets into human cells differently, that it’s restricted mostly to the upper respiratory tract, and less likely to lodge and spread in the lungs, where it causes more severe disease.

“Milder disease with Omicron: is it the virus or the pre-existing immunity?” ~ by Alex Sigal
“At the population level we are seeing milder disease during the Omicron wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Is this due to the virus or pre-existing immunity, and what should we expect next? ...”
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-022-00678-4


The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant’s “milder” outcomes are likely due to more population immunity, compared to earlier waves of the pandemic, rather than the virus’s properties, according to a paper by William Hanage, and Roby Bhattacharyya. Based on their analysis,
Hanage and Bhattacharyya stress that as many people as possible domestically and globally should be vaccinated, and those most vulnerable to disease should receive a third booster shot.

“Challenges in Inferring Intrinsic Severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant” ~ by Roby P. Bhattacharyya, M.D., Ph.D., and William P. Hanage, Ph.D.
➥ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2119682

[ahun]

The population of the USA:


2022 334,125,343
2020 331,002,651
2019 329,064,917

I can't see that extra 900 000 covid death in the hard fact statistics. Steady growth of more than a million people per year.

[seandepagnier]

Originally Posted by ahun

The population of the USA:


2022 334,125,343
2020 331,002,651
2019 329,064,917

I can't see that extra 900 000 covid death in the hard fact statistics. Steady growth of more than a million people per year.

So what you are saying is that it is easy to offset covid losses through births and immigration. This means the human species will not go extinct as a result of covid 19 no matter what is done.

[ahun]

That's not what I said, but it all sounds true. However, I doubt that hundred thousands of people emigrated to the USA in the last couple of years, while the whole world was essentially locked down, to offset the COVID deaths. Bit far fetched theory.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by ahun

That's not what I said, but it all sounds true. However, I doubt that hundred thousands of people emigrated to the USA in the last couple of years, while the whole world was essentially locked down, to offset the COVID deaths. Bit far fetched theory.

For the first time, international migration, to the USA, surpassed natural increases, that come from births outnumbering deaths.
There was a net increase of nearly 245,000 residents from international migration, but only about 148,000 from new births outnumbering deaths.

Between July 2020 to July 2021, America’s population grew by 0.1 percent, which is the lowest rate of growth since the nation’s founding. The country gained 392,665 additional people, increasing the population to 331.8 million.
Of the country’s demographic increase, during that 12-month period, immigration accounted for 62 percent of the gain, and natural increase 38 percent.
In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic increasing deaths, the pandemic contributed to fewer births, compared to recent years.

U.S. Census Bureau ➥ https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html