New Variant(s)

[GordMay]

Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 15 February 2022

The number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide has dropped by 19 percent in the past week, while recorded deaths remain stable, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) latest report on the coronavirus pandemic.

The United Nations’ health agency said late on Tuesday that “just over 16 million new cases and just under 75,000 new deaths were reported” globally during the week of February 7 to February 13.

The Western Pacific was the only region to report an increase in new weekly cases, a rise of about 19 percent. Southeast Asia recorded a drop of about 37 percent, the biggest decrease across the six WHO regions.

The biggest number of new COVID-19 cases was seen in Russia. Cases there and elsewhere in Eastern Europe doubled in recent weeks, driven by a surge of the hugely infectious Omicron variant.

WHO said that all other coronavirus variants, including Alpha, Beta and Delta, continue to decline globally as Omicron crowds them out.

Among the more than 400,000 COVID-19 virus sequences uploaded to the world’s biggest virus database in the last week, more than 98 percent were Omicron.

Overview ➥ https://www.who.int/publications/m/i...-february-2022
[click on <download> for full report]

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 15 February 2022

The number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide has dropped by 19 percent in the past week, while recorded deaths remain stable, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) latest report on the coronavirus pandemic.

The United Nations’ health agency said late on Tuesday that “just over 16 million new cases and just under 75,000 new deaths were reported” globally during the week of February 7 to February 13.

The Western Pacific was the only region to report an increase in new weekly cases, a rise of about 19 percent. Southeast Asia recorded a drop of about 37 percent, the biggest decrease across the six WHO regions.

The biggest number of new COVID-19 cases was seen in Russia. Cases there and elsewhere in Eastern Europe doubled in recent weeks, driven by a surge of the hugely infectious Omicron variant.

WHO said that all other coronavirus variants, including Alpha, Beta and Delta, continue to decline globally as Omicron crowds them out.

Among the more than 400,000 COVID-19 virus sequences uploaded to the world’s biggest virus database in the last week, more than 98 percent were Omicron.

Overview ➥ https://www.who.int/publications/m/i...-february-2022
[click on <download> for full report]

It is difficult to imagine how they are measuring Covid cases given the short supply of testing versus the massive number of cases.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by danstanford

It is difficult to imagine how they are measuring Covid cases given the short supply of testing versus the massive number of cases.

Yes, I don't pay any attention to official case numbers now. They're so problematic that the data seems fairly meaningless.

[davil]

Health resources are mostly geared to deal with infections, more likely admitted to hospitals via ER.
The treatment of post infections (sometimes named long Covid19) continues to lag, is good to see efforts to focus on it.

https://www.med.unc.edu/phyrehab/new...covery-clinic/


Main message remains. DO NOT CATCH IT

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes, I don't pay any attention to official case numbers now. They're so problematic that the data seems fairly meaningless.

Yes, depending on the country, but certainly there is still a great deal of meaning. A great deal of data has been accumulated and is being analyzed. We continue to produce hundreds if not thousands of studies from which we continue to learn. For example treatment is much improved as a result.


It is also useful to see and consider the trends. Even if the tests are insufficient (and to be fair there is certainly MUCH more testing than early on, not to mention home test reporting).

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Yes, depending on the country, but certainly there is still a great deal of meaning. A great deal of data has been accumulated and is being analyzed. We continue to produce hundreds if not thousands of studies from which we continue to learn. For example treatment is much improved as a result.


It is also useful to see and consider the trends. Even if the tests are insufficient (and to be fair there is certainly MUCH more testing than early on, not to mention home test reporting).

I agree that the relevant people should be using all the data they have as analytics.

I cannot imagine what element would make these case counts or positive tests relevant at this point. It is similar to calling out positivity rates per test done when the ability to test and the standards to do so here in Ontario keep changing. A positive test at home is not likely to be reported either as far as I can tell.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Yes, depending on the country, but certainly there is still a great deal of meaning. A great deal of data has been accumulated and is being analyzed. We continue to produce hundreds if not thousands of studies from which we continue to learn. For example treatment is much improved as a result.

It is also useful to see and consider the trends. Even if the tests are insufficient (and to be fair there is certainly MUCH more testing than early on, not to mention home test reporting).

All true. I shouldn't have said they are "fairly meaningless." The case numbers are now about as accurate as influenza case measures. It's still a useful metric to see trends, but it's no longer an accurate measure -- at least not here in Canada.

Hospitalizations and ICU admittance are a much better measure that we can be very confident of.

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by danstanford

It is difficult to imagine how they are measuring Covid cases given the short supply of testing versus the massive number of cases.

Typically the way this is done is to pick a statically representative random sample, which can than be quite responsibly and accurately predict the condition of the whole population.

For example, a combination random/representative sample for the US would usually be between 1000 and 2000 tests (closer to 1000).

[davil]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Typically the way this is done is to pick a statically representative random sample, which can than be quite responsibly and accurately predict the condition of the whole population.

For example, a combination random/representative sample for the US would usually be between 1000 and 2000 tests (closer to 1000).

==========================
to complicate matters, cases (unknown numbers) of tests been conducted at home and non-reported, and low level to asymptomatic cases non-reported, non tested.

[davil]

why do I feel envy?

==================================

Good news for DR last night

Dominican Republic

The President of DR, Luis Abinader suspends all restrictive measures for COVID-19, including mandatory use of the mask
"It will be our turn to take care of ourselves, responsibly, but without restrictions," said the president.
Josefina MedinaJosefina Medina
Santo Domingo - Feb. 16, 2022 | 08:03 PM m.| 3 min read

President Luis Abinader announced this Wednesday night the suspension of all the restrictive measures imposed by COVID-19.

The president made the decision one year after the start of the National Vaccination Plan, a time he described as "a great collective victory."

With 5,844,147 citizens vaccinated with at least two doses of the vaccine against respiratory disease, 2,528 active cases, positivity in the last four weeks at 10.24%, lethality at 0.76% and a considerable decrease in hospital occupancy, these are the measures that from now on will no longer be implemented:

* Mandatory use of the mask.

* Presentation of the vaccination card to access public and private spaces.

* Restrictions in public spaces.

“After this long battle, we started to get our freedom back. From now on, we will all have to take care of ourselves, responsibly, but without restrictions, ”he indicated.

With the announcement of the president, the responsibility of taking care of COVID-19 acquires an individual character.

“The government did what it had to do to protect our people and time has proven us right in our actions against the pandemic,” he added.

In his speech this Wednesday, Abinader thanked the medical personnel who, since the arrival of the pandemic, have provided their services without ceasing to guarantee the health of Dominicans.

Thanks 🙏

“Thanks to the doctors, the nurses and all the health personnel; thanks to our military and police; thanks to the businessmen who provided human and financial resources for the cause and thanks, above all, to the millions of Dominicans who complied with the measures and went to get vaccinated.”

RELATED
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He valued the measures taken by his management to acquire vaccines against COVID-19 when many powers did not have them and to turn the Dominican Republic into one of the countries that vaccinated its people the most in the first half of last year.

“We put ourselves at the forefront, we bet on hiring the widest variety of vaccines, we applied innovative treatments and we were among the first in the world to propose a third dose, despite the little faith of a few,” he stressed.

% of Covid deaths are so low so this can be lifted in DR https://dr1.com/forums/threads/.401009/#post-5633219

For updates on this you can join our FB group https://www.facebook.com/groups/502195700382567/

[GordMay]

COVID reinfections surge during Omicron onslaught
Immunity acquired through previous infection is less effective against Omicron, than against other variants, but the risk of severe COVID-19 remains low.
Since the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was first detected, the number of people reinfected with the coronavirus has been rising sharply — a trend that was not observed with previous variants. Researchers say that the new variant is probably driving the surge because it is able to evade the body’s immune defences.

More about ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00438-3

“Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa” ~ by Juliet R.C. Pulliam et al
➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.21266068v2


“Rapid emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is associated with an infection advantage over Delta in vaccinated persons” ~ by Chrispin Chaguza et al
➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....22.22269660v1

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by davil

==========================
to complicate matters, cases (unknown numbers) of tests been conducted at home and non-reported, and low level to asymptomatic cases non-reported, non tested.

Whether reported or not, home and even ER tests are less relevent, as this kind of testing is usually done when symptoms are evident, or Covid is suspected - so these results and rates are not meant to project onto the population at large.

On the other hand, the use of random/representative sampling using statistically valid sample sizes DO reveal the general presence of Covid in the population at large. Thus whether the home tests are reported or not is not relevent nor complicating.

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 15 February 2022

The number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide has dropped by 19 percent in the past week, while recorded deaths remain stable, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) latest report on the coronavirus pandemic.
.....
WHO said that all other coronavirus variants, including Alpha, Beta and Delta, continue to decline globally as Omicron crowds them out.

Among the more than 400,000 COVID-19 virus sequences uploaded to the world’s biggest virus database in the last week, more than 98 percent were Omicron.

Overview ➥ https://www.who.int/publications/m/i...-february-2022
[click on <download> for full report]

It seems fortunate that less serious and more infectious Omicron-1 was a piece of random mutational luck. This seems primarily due to the very unusual but huge number of mutations (over 50 I think) - some scientists hypothesized that this may have been due to a long infection in a single individual which allowed the massive shift, plus a possible inclusion of common cold changes. There was not the usual modest ongoing mutations, but a bunch at once.


Such is life and death. Thus O-1 exploded onto the scene and quickly displaced all the earlier and more serious variants which acted deep in the lungs, and not in the upper respiratory tracts (less serious). A good thing, and very fortunate.


However, I just saw a few reports that of the great numbers of current Omicron infections: one out of five is O-2, even more infectious and some say a bit more serious than O-1. This is very important - does this mean that O-2 will displace O-1? Correct me please, but I recall that the Omicrons can not only infect, but re-infect?

[GordMay]

Genetic risk factors for severe COVID

Scientists have identified [1] a host [16] of genetic variants, that are linked to an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19
Understanding these variants could help researchers to target new therapies, for people who are very ill. The functions of implicated genes suggest two potential pathways for developing severe COVID-19:
Some people become severely ill after their immune systems initially fail to curb the virus’s reproduction
Others might be predisposed to lung inflammation or clotting, so even relatively low levels of the virus in the body could lead to dangerous illness.

The scientists said their discoveries, published in the journal Nature on Monday [1], could help prioritize the likely treatments that could work against the disease.

The genetic analysis of nearly 56,000 samples, from people in Britain, showed differences in 23 genes, in COVID-19 patients who became critically ill, when compared with the DNA of other groups included in the study, including 16 differences that had not been previously identified. For example, the researchers found changes in key genes, that regulate the level of factor VIII, a protein involved in forming blood clots. Blood clotting is one of the main reasons why patients with COVID develop a shortage of oxygen. So that's potentially targetable to prevent those clots from forming.

More about ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00677-4

[1] “Whole genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical Covid-19" ~ by Athanasios Kousathanas et al [March 7/22]
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04576-6

[Seaworthy Lass]

The discussion seems to have run its course if the only new post in 3 weeks relates to human variants, not virus variants, the subject of this thread.

The thread is now closed.

SWL