New Variant(s)

[GordMay]

Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert delivers an account of the development of the Oxford AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine

Future pandemics could be even more lethal than COVID-19, so lessons learned from the outbreak must not be squandered and the world should ensure it is prepared for the next viral onslaught, Sarah Gilbert, one of the creators of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, says.

Sarah Gilbert, a professor of vaccinology at the University of Oxford, said, in the Richard Dimbleby Lecture, that the world should make sure it is better prepared for the next virus, according to the BBC.
“The truth is, the next one could be worse. It could be more contagious, or more lethal, or both,” Gilbert said. “This will not be the last time a virus threatens our lives and our livelihoods.”

Sarah Gilbert is the Said Professor of Vaccinology, in the Nuffield Department of Medicine, at the University of Oxford. She works on vaccines for many different emerging pathogens, and in 2020 led the development of a vaccine against the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, achieving emergency use approval in record time. The vaccine has now been used in more than 170 countries around the world, after a groundbreaking partnership was formed between Oxford University and AstraZeneca.

“Sarah Gilbert: Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid” ~ BBC News
More about ➥ https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59542211

Richard Dimbleby Lecture ➥ https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0012b15

[Anders]

In the interview that Gord May posted a link to is this opinion from Prof Dame Sarah Gilbert


"Speaking about the Omicron variant, she said its spike protein contained mutations known to increase the transmissibility of the virus."But there are additional changes that may mean antibodies induced by the vaccines, or by infection with other variants, may be less effective at preventing infection with Omicron.


"Until we know more, we should be cautious, and take steps to slow down the spread of this new variant."


However, Dame Sarah said reduced protection against infection and mild disease would not necessarily mean reduced protection against severe illness and death"

[SeaSenor68]

Heard the doctors who first noticed the variant in South Africa describing the symptoms as minor. Same was said by person here in US who had it. I'm going to go get my booster, and think I should be in good shape.

[danstanford]

From the first month of the pandemic the epidemiologists were saying that there would be variants, they would be more contagious, and that they would be less virulent. This makes lots of sense given that a virus that kills its host is less likely to spread widely.

[N Coast Murray]

Three weeks since Omicron emerged, and still too early to really know what will happen:

https://www.science.org/content/arti...ot-encouraging

[N Coast Murray]

An Epidemiologist explains why it is too early to make predictions regarding what Omicron's impact will be:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...g-some-answers

[aqfishing]

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/trend...ciWSUinqyYd82o

[aqfishing]

https://covid-19dashboard.news24.com/

While numbers are sky rocketing take a look at the hospitalisations. (6th Graph)
On the last wave when we hit a 7 day moving ave of 15000 new cases, 28 June, we had nearly 12000 in hospital, 2000 in icu and a 1000 on ventilators. Now its 4800, 400, 150.
Vaccines or weaker virus, who knows, but it is better.

[danstanford]

Just saw a story containing a reference to an epidemiologist on the Ontario Science Table who believes we will all get Omicron within the next 6-12 weeks! Same person is not ready to comment on the virulence of Omicron due to limited data.

[aqfishing]

I can say that from personal experience this one is spreading like crazy! We have avoided covid until now, but it seems our whole family has it now. We have all had Pfizer vax. Varying degrees of severity, but mostly on the mild side. As soon as the upcountry (where Omicron is prevalent and spread like crazy) visitors came to the coast for end of year holidays, the cases have just taken off! Partying youngsters is the biggest problem!

A Dr friend who is connected to all the GP’s confirms it is definitely a lot milder. Is that due to milder strain or vax or lotsa people with antibodies, who knows.

It is coming and it will spread faster than anything you have ever seen.

But lets hope it is as mild as it seems, let you know in a few days!

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by aqfishing

I can say that from personal experience this one is spreading like crazy! We have avoided covid until now, but it seems our whole family has it now. We have all had Pfizer vax. Varying degrees of severity, but mostly on the mild side. As soon as the upcountry (where Omicron is prevalent and spread like crazy) visitors came to the coast for end of year holidays, the cases have just taken off! Partying youngsters is the biggest problem!

A Dr friend who is connected to all the GP’s confirms it is definitely a lot milder. Is that due to milder strain or vax or lotsa people with antibodies, who knows.

It is coming and it will spread faster than anything you have ever seen.

But lets hope it is as mild as it seems, let you know in a few days!

Good luck and best wishes for mild cases all around.

[Mike OReilly]

I just became eligible for the 3rd dose (booster) here in Ontario. I had been planning to hold off for a while, but given the data about significantly waning vaccine protection, I'm now signed up.

Preliminary data indicating the reduced virulence of this strain remains consistent and positive. But given that it's so much more contagious, the numbers indicate we're in for another big rise in cases and hospitalizations.

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Good luck and best wishes for mild cases all around.

Thanks!

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I just became eligible for the 3rd dose (booster) here in Ontario. I had been planning to hold off for a while, but given the data about significantly waning vaccine protection, I'm now signed up.

Preliminary data indicating the reduced virulence of this strain remains consistent and positive. But given that it's so much more contagious, the numbers indicate we're in for another big rise in cases and hospitalizations.

Our 7 day average of new cases is now 22000, it has surpassed our 3rd wave peak of 20 000.
At the peak of the third wave:
17404 in hospital
2401 in icu
1321 on ventilators

The above stats now:
6895
469
187


So something is very different.

[aqfishing]

I would like to add that the uptake of vaccines in South Africa has not been great. There is no shortage either. 31% has had at least 1 shot and 26% fully vax. USA 72/61%, so may have even better figures when Omicron hits.