New Variant(s)

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by aqfishing

Our 7 day average of new cases is now 22000, it has surpassed our 3rd wave peak of 20 000.
At the peak of the third wave:
17404 in hospital
2401 in icu
1321 on ventilators

The above stats now:
6895
469
187


So something is very different.

It's been a little over a month since Omicron's emergence/discovery and the hospitalization and daily death numbers in South Africa haven't jumped yet.

Hoping that's a good sign that holds for the long term.

Hope you and your family get a glancing blow!!!!

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by aqfishing

Our 7 day average of new cases is now 22000, it has surpassed our 3rd wave peak of 20 000.
At the peak of the third wave:
17404 in hospital
2401 in icu
1321 on ventilators

The above stats now:
6895
469
187


So something is very different.

Let's hope this holds. Our two major provinces are now seeing steep increases in case numbers. Hospitalizations follow after, but so far we're not seeing any big increases.

[laird]

The new variant has now broken the UK record for the largest number of new my reported infections in a single day ,78600 previous was last January at 60k+

The death rate is still low

[N Coast Murray]

Pretty sure Omicron was first identified on November 9th. It's now a mere five weeks later and has been found in 77 countries.

Brings to mind photos from space showing just how thin Earth's atmosphere is. Apparently, on the scale of a basketball, our atmosphere is as thick as a basketballs dimples.

We need to be kinder to each other, and to this singular place which sustains us.

[GordMay]

Clues as to Why Omicron is Spreading so Quickly

New research [1], from a team in Hong Kong, offers a clue to why the Omicron coronavirus variant is spreading so astonishingly fast around the world: it may be multiplying 70 times quicker than earlier strains, within our lower airways.

The laboratory-based study [1], led by researchers from the LKS Faculty of Medicine, at the University of Hong Kong, was shared online, as a press release [2], on Wednesday, and is currently undergoing peer review, for publication.

The researchers found that, just 24 hours after infection, Omicron multiplies 70 times faster than either the Delta variant, or the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, within tissue samples of human bronchi — the two large tubes that carry air from your windpipe to your lungs.

It's a finding that could explain why Omicron seems to transmit faster between humans than previous variants, and offers a striking contrast to how the variant replicated in the research team's samples of actual lung tissue, compared to the bronchi. Within those lung samples, the variant multiplied at a rate more than 10 times slower than the original virus.

It's the lungs, not the bronchi, that are linked to potentially life-threatening COVID-19 complications, such as pneumonia and, in severe cases, acute respiratory distress syndrome or ARDS.

So if these findings hold up in a real-world setting, the team suspects that slower replication, in the lungs, might mean reduced severity of disease.

These findings, from the University of Hong Kong, haven't been peer reviewed, and the experiments occurred entirely inside cell tissue.
Nonetheless, the research supports another study [3], published online Tuesday, from Garcia-Beltran, and his colleagues, that also suggests omicron is more infectious than delta.

[1] Not yet available

[2]“HKUMed finds Omicron SARS-CoV-2 can infect faster and better than Delta in human bronchus but with less severe infection in lung” ~ LKS Faculty of Medicine Press Release
➥ https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press...=press_release

Or ➥ https://www.med.hku.hk/en/news/press...ov-2-infection

[3] “mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine boosters induce neutralizing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant” ~ by Wilfredo F Garcia-Beltran et al
Preprint ➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...14.21267755v1/

[GordMay]

Further to #65:

Omicron thrives in airways, not lungs; new data on asymptomatic cases ~ Reuters
The following is a summary of some recent studies on COVID-19. They include research that warrants further study to corroborate the findings and that has yet to be certified by peer review.
➥ https://canadanewsmedia.ca/omicron-t...twire-network/

[aqfishing]

Thanks. Interesting.

[GordMay]

"We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalisation attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta”

British researchers, at the Imperial College London [ICL], say they have found “no evidence” that the Omicron coronavirus variant is milder than Delta, casting doubt on the cautious optimism, of some experts, that the new strain may not be as virulent and not overwhelm healthcare systems. The study [1] also found that the risk of reinfection, with Omicron, is more than five times higher than Delta.

The results of the study, by Imperial College London, were based on U.K. Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11. The data, analyzed by Imperial College, was based on 333,000 cases, including 122,062 of Delta, and 1,846 which were confirmed as the Omicron coronavirus variant, through genome sequencing.

“This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity given by both infection or vaccination,” study lead Professor Neil Ferguson said in ICL’s statement. [2]

Some of the conclusions are different to the data emerging from South Africa, where vaccines are holding up well against severe disease, and death at present.

The ICL study [1] has not yet been peer reviewed.

[1] “Report 48 - The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant” ~ Imperial College COVID-19 response team [Dec 16]
➥ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...-Report-48.pdf

[2] ICL ➥ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2327...pert-views-uk/

[GordMay]

Omicron cases doubling in 1.5 to 3 days in areas with local spread - WHO



The Omicron coronavirus variant has been reported in 89 countries, and the number of cases is doubling in 1.5 to 3 days, in areas with community transmission, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday, December 18. [1]
Omicron is spreading rapidly in countries with high levels of population immunity, but it is unclear if this is due to the virus' ability to evade immunity, its inherent increased transmissibility, or a combination of both, the WHO said in the update [1].

More about ➥ https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ho-2021-12-18/

Or ➥ https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/18/omic...spreadwho.html

[1] WHO Statement [primary source] not yet available online
WHO Statements ➥ https://www.who.int/news-room/statements
WHO News releases ➥ https://www.who.int/news

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by GordMay

"We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalisation attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta”

British researchers, at the Imperial College London [ICL], say they have found “no evidence” that the Omicron coronavirus variant is milder than Delta, casting doubt on the cautious optimism, of some experts, that the new strain may not be as virulent and not overwhelm healthcare systems. The study [1] also found that the risk of reinfection, with Omicron, is more than five times higher than Delta.

The results of the study, by Imperial College London, were based on U.K. Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11. The data, analyzed by Imperial College, was based on 333,000 cases, including 122,062 of Delta, and 1,846 which were confirmed as the Omicron coronavirus variant, through genome sequencing.

“This study provides further evidence of the very substantial extent to which Omicron can evade prior immunity given by both infection or vaccination,” study lead Professor Neil Ferguson said in ICL’s statement. [2]

Some of the conclusions are different to the data emerging from South Africa, where vaccines are holding up well against severe disease, and death at present.

The ICL study [1] has not yet been peer reviewed.

[1] “Report 48 - The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant” ~ Imperial College COVID-19 response team [Dec 16]
➥ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...-Report-48.pdf

[2] ICL ➥ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2327...pert-views-uk/

333000 cases, 122000 delta and 1800 omicron….I am no scientist, but that hardly looks like a sample set you can draw conclusions from.

I would like to see how the UK findings hold up. Definitely not the case here in S.A. Their government trying to justify lockdown measures perhaps?

[laird]

The impression that I am getting here in the UK whilst talking to managers within the NHS ,is that their biggest concern is that due to the rapid spread of omricon ,this will hit their staff and clinics will be unable to function

There is an immense back log at present due to covid and there is a real worry about it all becoming much worse ,if we ( NHS employees ) catch covid , we have to self isolate for two weeks and take a PCR test before being allowed to return , and a lot of people take longer than two weeks to recover

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by laird

The impression that I am getting here in the UK whilst talking to managers within the NHS ,is that their biggest concern is that due to the rapid spread of omricon ,this will hit their staff and clinics will be unable to function

There is an immense back log at present due to covid and there is a real worry about it all becoming much worse ,if we ( NHS employees ) catch covid , we have to self isolate for two weeks and take a PCR test before being allowed to return , and a lot of people take longer than two weeks to recover

Yes, that is a very valid concern here in South Africa as well.

[Tetepare]

Omicron is reported as causing high infection rates at Cornell University, which is 97% vaccinated, with many already having had the booster.

[Mike OReilly]

Just looking at the New Hospitalizations data over at Our World In Data. Not seeing a dramatic rise in hospitalizations yet in the UK. Indeed, no rise. South Africa is registering a steady increase, as is the USA, although neither are dramatic (yet).

Most countries show as pretty flat -- so far.

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Just looking at the New Hospitalizations data over at Our World In Data. Not seeing a dramatic rise in hospitalizations yet in the UK. Indeed, no rise. South Africa is registering a steady increase, as is the USA, although neither are dramatic (yet).

Most countries show as pretty flat -- so far.

Yes, but you need to put South Africas figures into context, our infections are through the roof, yet our hospitalisations, ICU and on ventilation figures are nowhere near previous levels. Also I (and many others) am of the opinion that there is major under reporting of the Omicron infections. Its a bad cold or less and people are not testing. Take my family, wife tested positive, I tested negative, 24 hours later I was sick. No point testing the kids with the same symptoms. Not gonna waste $100 on 3 tests. There are many people with far less money than us, too much mission to queue for free test, so they just treat it as a cold. I think the under reporting is massive knowing our local population, it just not severe enough to even worry. Even the educated are not worrying to test, its either a cold or covid, treat the symptoms and get on with it. Getting tested and knowing you have covid or not changes nothing, most treat it as covid, isolate, and then get on with life. That may well be one of the reasons why it is spreading like it is, people do not even realise they have it. The only reason we tested my wife was because we happened to be driving past a test centre and it was quiet. Would not have worried if there was a queue.