Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Seaworthy Lass]

The study on reinfection is a really interesting one. Thanks for the links, Gord. There has been so much speculation about immunity following infection (and so much unwarranted fear spread). Over this past year we have had many anecdotal reports (Facebook, media etc) and very little hard data. The second link you provided also gives details of other studies I have not had a chance to look at yet.

I have read the “The Expert Reaction” and it is hard to make good sense of the figures, as they are discussed in mixed ways (per 100,000 “person days” and per person).

A couple commenting haven’t read the study fully , as they stated that 6,000 healthcare workers were followed, not 20,000.

Dr Tom Wingfield gives the most information:
“The SIREN study team reviewed over 20,000 healthcare worker participants every 2 weeks over a 5-month period. About 6000 of the healthcare workers were people who had evidence of having had SARS-CoV-2 infection (termed the “positive cohort”) and about 14000 of the healthcare workers were people who had no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (termed the “negative cohort”).
The findings suggest that re-infection rates in the positive cohort were 83% lower than the negative cohort during the follow-up period.”

If 44 of the positive cohort were infected from a group of exactly 6614, this implies to me that around 550 of the roughly 14,000 in the negative cohort were. Maybe someone can check my maths and logic? It is easy to make simple mistakes.

Prof Lawrence Young said:
“Reinfection was rare (44 potential reinfections out of 6,614 participants who had tested positive for antibodies).”
(Why use the term potential if all the participants had regular PCR testing, as Prof Danny Altmann indicated?)

Dr Simon Clarke concludes:
“The good news is that this study gives further weight that reinfections of Covid is rare, at least at this stage, and that having antibodies will provide protection for a meaningful amount of time, although it may not be lifelong immunity.”

So the comments are all over the place.

I would like to know if the groups in the study were matched (work conditions and hours, PPE used, age, race, sex, health etc). It seems odd to me that after 5 months only around 550 of the 14000 negative workers were infected (4%) if I have calculated correctly. Maybe not much more than the general population despite working in a possibly high viral load environment.

Also, how many of the ones initially in the negative group who were subsequently infected tested positive a second time, and after how long. Were they just shedding? Where they added to the positive cohorts tally?

Also, very few people were actually tested during the first wave in spring. I wonder how many of the 14,000 negative cohort the study started with may have had no detectable antibodies, but had prior symptom free infection during the first wave (the study started when this wave was essentially all over in June) and simply had already developed Memory T cells to this virus? Just looking at antibodies does not tell the full story.

It has also been speculated people can apparently have different levels of immunity depending possibly on such things as previous flu or MMR or polio or even TB vaccinations, as well as infection with other coronaviruses. If none of this initially negative cohort had been infected in the first wave, maybe a greater proportion of them had some extra immunity.

There is no way the negative group could have started with zero exposure in June, even if they had not been working in the medical field. The two groups can’t really be compared then.

This is a very complicated situation. Just a million and one questions that could be asked . It will be interesting to read the paper when it is published.

[laird]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Wonderful to have someone on the front line chime in.

I would like to extend my deep thanks to all hospital staff. It has been a long and difficult haul. During the first wave we banged our pot lids in appreciation every Thursday at 8pm, along with most of the nation. It actually gave a great sense of unity. This is no longer occurring, but the appreciation is still there.

Thank you for the recognition Seaworthy Lass , im.fortunate that I only have to enter covid wards occasionally, I'm glad I don't have to wear full PPE all day like the nurses ,as for the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine ,Astra Zenica say that it gives 90% immunity if you receive a full dose followed by a half dose ,there appears to be conflicting information on it , I think that the UK gov is going for a different strategy ,it's trying to give everyone the first full dose to enable a partial imunity to the populace , it sounds to me that some government mathematician has worked out the numbers and sold the idea to improve the herd immunity. My son is running a large building project in London , when his crew of 200 guys turned up to work last week he had them all tested ,out of 200 ,20 tested positive that's done in 10 , personally I think there's going to be an annual program similar to flu

I hope your enjoying the North West , I'm missing it , I'm Scottish and My rough plan is to go liveaboard up there ,I've done a fair bit of sailing and scuba diving around those islands , only a few years to retirement

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by laird

Thank you for the recognition Seaworthy Lass , im.fortunate that I only have to enter covid wards occasionally, I'm glad I don't have to wear full PPE all day like the nurses ,as for the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine ,Astra Zenica say that it gives 90% immunity if you receive a full dose followed by a half dose ,there appears to be conflicting information on it , I think that the UK gov is going for a different strategy ,it's trying to give everyone the first full dose to enable a partial imunity to the populace , it sounds to me that some government mathematician has worked out the numbers and sold the idea to improve the herd immunity. My son is running a large building project in London , when his crew of 200 guys turned up to work last week he had them all tested ,out of 200 ,20 tested positive that's done in 10 , personally I think there's going to be an annual program similar to flu

I hope your enjoying the North West , I'm missing it , I'm Scottish and My rough plan is to go liveaboard up there ,I've done a fair bit of sailing and scuba diving around those islands , only a few years to retirement

We love Scotland . The western and northern regions are wild and untamed. Far more so than the south western portions of Norway we cruised in 2019. The locals are warm and welcoming, although understandably far more wary of strangers during this crisis. We have respectfully kept our distance.

I am curious to know how the decision was made to delay the second dose of both the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines to give more people immunity as quickly as possible. After analysis and number crunching I bet there was some debate, as the effectiveness of a delay has never been trialled. Given the extent of the current situation in England it does not seem unreasonable to me, but who knows.

Regarding the Oxford-AstraZenaca trials, someone must have been hauled over the coals. Two Several trials were done:
- 9000 in Brazil Some received both full doses as planned 4 weeks apart. Five weeks from the first dose it was determined the vaccine gave 62% immunity.
- 3000 Some in the UK accidentally received a half dose first, then a full dose 4 weeks later. Five weeks from the first dose it was determined the vaccine gave around 90% immunity.

They were left scratching their heads!

EDITED TO ADD: Apologies. I have gone to the Lancet for more information and found some of the above was incorrect, so I struck it out.
See:
https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-ce...he-lancet.html

It just goes to show media can give inaccurate reports

[fxykty]

Originally Posted by UFO

I'll raise a glass to that. I am looking to head off by May when the cyclone season up north finishes, so I am hoping that Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand are open by then, otherwise its back to the East Coast of Oz.

Sorry, not Northern Europe related.

Indonesia is open, but not Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, etc. Is it possible to stay year round in Indonesia, avoiding cyclones to the east and typhoons from the west?

[UFO]

Originally Posted by fxykty

Sorry, not Northern Europe related.

Indonesia is open, but not Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, etc. Is it possible to stay year round in Indonesia, avoiding cyclones to the east and typhoons from the west?

not sure about all of Indonesia, but Bali is a Cyclone free zone

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, you're right. I hope we see a BIG acceleration!

Interesting comment in the linked article that the Israelis are not doing fine-grained prioritization -- just all health care and all over 60 so far, come one, come all. I know Israel is a very small and very highly regimented society, so vaccinating everyone there is a very different job to what larger countries face, but still -- this is impressive. I bet there will be something to learn from what they've done.

My friend in Israel also told me that there has been a dramatic change of opinion about taking the vaccine -- that there was considerable reluctance at first, including even her, a doctor -- but that this reluctanc simply evaporated and now everyone wants to be vaccinated. Cool!

One for you Dockhead, What have you heard locally about this?:


https://nord.news/2021/01/14/the-nor...frail-and-old/

[Dockhead]

Meanwhile, back in Northern Europe, some slightly encouraging news on daily infection rates:



It starts to seem that we can see a downward inflection everywhere, even the UK.

Lithuania, for a long time the worst spot in Europe, is way down and consistently. Denmark, for some time the worst spot in the Nordics, is way down, and now better than Germany. Latvia and Estonia on apparent downward trends for a week.

The picture with death rates, however, is pretty ugly:



Much of the region over 10 per million, a high rate, including Lithuania, Sweden, Germany. Lithuania down from an astronomical peak around 35, Germany steady at just over 10, Sweden still rising. UK very bad at nearly 16. Latvia has fallen to just under 10. But if infection rates are really on a downward trend, then death rates should fall too with a bit of lag. The turning point with infection rates for the region seems to have been about a week ago, so it means death rate should turn in another week. Let's hope.

The rest of the region is not too bad -- Denmark, despite high infection rates for a while, never got over 5 deaths per million. Finland and Norway never had any meaningful death rate.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Meanwhile, back in Northern Europe, some slightly encouraging news on daily infection rates:

Attachment 230434

It starts to seem that we can see a downward inflection everywhere, even the UK.

Lithuania, for a long time the worst spot in Europe, is way down and consistently. Denmark, for some time the worst spot in the Nordics, is way down, and now better than Germany. Latvia and Estonia on apparent downward trends for a week.

The picture with death rates, however, is pretty ugly:

Attachment 230435

Much of the region over 10 per million, a high rate, including Lithuania, Sweden, Germany. Lithuania down from an astronomical peak around 35, Germany steady at just over 10, Sweden still rising. UK very bad at nearly 16. Latvia has fallen to just under 10. But if infection rates are really on a downward trend, then death rates should fall too with a bit of lag. The turning point with infection rates for the region seems to have been about a week ago, so it means death rate should turn in another week. Let's hope.

The rest of the region is not too bad -- Denmark, despite high infection rates for a while, never got over 5 deaths per million. Finland and Norway never had any meaningful death rate.

The plateauing or downward trends in infection rates are looking extremely promising. If we couple that with the vaccine being rolled out to the vulnerable, the deaths should decrease significantly in a few weeks (I think they lag more than 2 weeks, partly due to reporting issues). Very good news indeed.

I have been thinking. The data for excess deaths from the usual sources won’t be much use this year if they compare it to the average for the last 5 years as usual, as the numbers will be skewed by 2020. Hopefully there will be something presented that omits 2020 in the average that 2021 is compared to.

Also maybe it is not as valid comparing excess deaths for the first and second waves for those countries that were badly hit the first time around. Wouldn’t we now be expecting less deaths not an average amount for these countries given that it has been mainly the elderly involved? Or is that not the right way of examining this?

Anyway, all this is looking much more positive than it was a few weeks ago.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by UFO

One for you Dockhead, What have you heard locally about this?:


https://nord.news/2021/01/14/the-nor...frail-and-old/

Perhaps I should have lead with a better tag line.....


From Norway....



A total of 23 deaths have been reported in connection with the corona virus vaccination. So far The Norwegian Medicines Agency links 13 of these deaths to side effects of the vaccine.


This is on top of multiple deaths after vaccination around the world.


https://nord.news/2021/01/14/the-nor...frail-and-old/

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by UFO

... A total of 23 deaths have been reported in connection with the corona virus vaccination. So far The Norwegian Medicines Agency links 13 of these deaths to side effects of the vaccine.

Odd, that the mainstream media seems to have mostly missed this story.

Originally Posted by NordNews

... The Norwegian Medicines Agency linked 13 deaths to the coronary vaccine side effects. Those who died had two things in common – they were old and frail ...

Personally, I'm not taking a coronary vaccine.

Originally Posted by New York Post

... Norway probes deaths of two nursing home residents who got Pfizer’s COVID vaccine
“...There will probably be deaths close to the time of vaccination. We must then assess whether it is the vaccine that is the cause of the death, or whether it is a coincidence that it happens so soon after vaccination...”
Health officials noted that around 400 people die each week in the nursing home population.
➥https://nypost.com/2021/01/07/norway...fizer-vaccine/

Can anyone translate the gist of this? (The NY Post says it's the actual statement)
➥ https://legemiddelverket.no/nyheter/...onavaksinering

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by UFO

Perhaps I should have lead with a better tag line.....


From Norway....



A total of 23 deaths have been reported in connection with the corona virus vaccination. So far The Norwegian Medicines Agency links 13 of these deaths to side effects of the vaccine.


This is on top of multiple deaths after vaccination around the world.


https://nord.news/2021/01/14/the-nor...frail-and-old/

I'm not really surprised.

90 year old people die at the drop of a hat.

Wonder if vaccinating nursing home residents before essential workers will backfire by fueling vaccine reluctance.

[Sos]

On a side note, it has been noticably that there are a lot fewer cases of common colds this winter (so far). Wonder if this will mean a reduction in deaths by Flu? Also wonder if this hygenie and face mask wearing will continue into the future and therefore less viral infections?


This is only my observations - during a lockdown - and in the UK.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . Also maybe it is not as valid comparing excess deaths for the first and second waves for those countries that were badly hit the first time around. Wouldn’t we now be expecting less deaths not an average amount for these countries given that it has been mainly the elderly involved? Or is that not the right way of examining this?. . . .

Well, everyone thought there would be a buildup of natural immunity in those areas hardest hit. The big question is how many people were infected but not recorded as cases. Estimate of this varied wildly; at one point it was thought that there are as many as 10x as many real cases as the recorded one. That led to some optimism about community immunity building up.

And we have seen in some of the hardest hit places -- New York, New Jersey, Spain -- that the death rates in the second wave were considerably less than in the first wave. But not so much in other places -- Italy, France, Sweden for example. In UK the second wave has had even worse death rate.

So I really don't know.

One thing we are seeing is that the shape of the second wave is mostly the same as the first wave -- classical Gompertz curve. Starts slow, shoots up, turns down, peaks, recedes.

In our region, the two countries I have been most worried about our Sweden and Latvia. Does look like Sweden has turned the corner, but not before reaching death rates similar to what they had during the first wave:



Latvia, on the other hand, may still have some way to go:

[laird]

Had an email from management today , it was titled Strictly in confidence ,so I will omit the details , 4 medical centre in my area are going full bore with mass vaccinations from Monday 18th , I've also received written confirmation that I will get the vaccine ( Oxford ) very soon ,I'll tell you if it hurts ;-)

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by laird

Had an email from management today , it was titled Strictly in confidence ,so I will omit the details , 4 medical centre in my area are going full bore with mass vaccinations from Monday 18th , I've also received written confirmation that I will get the vaccine ( Oxford ) very soon ,I'll tell you if it hurts ;-)

Excellent news with the vaccinations.

Scots strike me as being stoic though so I am not sure how valuable your feedback will be regarding pain .

I have now read the Lancet article on AZD1222, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, and I found more information on the efficacy after just one dose:

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-ce...he-lancet.html

“There were no hospitalisations or severe cases of COVID-19 more than 21 days after the first dose of the vaccine. Ten participants in the control group were hospitalised due to COVID-19, among whom two were assessed as severe, including one fatal case.”

Maybe further unpublished data is now available for a longer period and that drove the decision to delay the second dose.

The data will continue to be gathered for a year. I wonder what they will do regarding the group receiving the meningococcal vaccine as a placebo. It seems unfair to leave them unvaccinated for too long, yet data on efficacy will be lost if they lose this control group.