Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . I think excess deaths are the best single figure we can use to indicate the TOTAL impact of this pandemic. I have never stated that this figure is equal to the total who have died from contracting COVID-19... .

I agree, and I think that a majority of epidemiologists agree with you.


We've discussed this before, but one of the main reasons why excess mortality is much better than the raw death rate, is that the raw death rate will report the death of someone who would have died anyway in a couple of weeks, as a pandemic death, giving a false impression of the real impact of the pandemic. Excess death over a year (say) washes out these deaths, which are not really an impact of the pandemic.


And excess mortality is the only way to measure the overall demographic impact -- how is the country really doing? Excess mortality is the bottom line. A country might record a lot of COVID deaths but if there is hardly a blip in overall mortality, then, the overall impact is small. And the contrary can also be true -- there are cases of relatively low official death rate but big spike in excess mortality -- that means the pandemic hit harder than the death rate would lead you to believe.



This is important, and the reason why real epidemiologists focus on excess mortality, and always have -- not just in this pandemic.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by laird

...

There is a level of urgency within the NHS today that was not there in March ,imho , those in the know are more worried than they are letting on , our health service here in the UK is running out of spare capacity , the onslaught of covid has been wearing down the front line troops and everything and everyone has a breaking point

Saving the health care system was the whole point of the lock downs.

My state, North Carolina has been doing ok with the pandemic. However, in early November 2020, the number of hospitalizations and deaths started to climb. This was well before the Thanksgiving holiday. As we moved into December, there started to be a real concern of overwhelming the hospital systems. The number of patients continued to climb until just after the first week in January when the number of hospitalizations flattened out. The death rate increased a bit and I suspect will do so for another week or so. The rate at which hospitalizations where climbing was starting to get alarming. As it stands now, roughly 20-25% of hospital beds are virus patients.

One thing I was shocked to read about Ireland, and I just went and looked it up in another source, is that they have 297 ICU beds funded for this winter. They have surge capacity that gets them to 354. I was shocked at that low number when I read it in an Irish paper. My state, which has twice the population of Ireland, has 2,096 ICUs that are in use but almost 1,400 that are not staffed or their status is not reported.

I read more "newspapers" on the island of Ireland than I do US "papers."

Ireland does seem to have a good number of regular hospital beds compared to NC.

I know Ireland is worried about the hospital system being overwhelmed but hopefully things are improving. I read a Dutch "newspaper" and their numbers are improving too. The UK situation is worrisome.

Later,
Dan

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Just had a Zoom call with an old friend in St. Petersburg. He said that they will have vaccinated all old people and front line health workers in the Northern Capital by late February and will open vaccination to everyone. He said that Moscow and Moscow Oblast' (an enormous connurbation, the biggest in Europe, with population of more than 20 million people, bigger than the Netherlands) have ALREADY passed that point a couple of weeks ago and are now vaccinating EVERYONE. He said they have set up vaccination points in all shopping centers, schools, and libraries and people are getting vaccinated by the millions, mobilizing retired nurses and doctors and the military, medical students, everyone who can hold a hypodermic, to get it done. Very impressive. I might go there myself if I don't find some other way to get vaccinated before summer.

It is certainly impressive. And much needed. I understand Moscow was hard hit, more so than statistics indicated.

Bloomberg’s data for vaccinations in Russia is out of date by about 10 days. It indicates only about 1.5 million people received at least one dose by the 11th January:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Worldwide the tally of doses (not people) is up to 54+ million. I look at this page daily. Every increase means we are one step closer to the death rate dropping and this crisis being over.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

It is certainly impressive. And much needed. I understand Moscow was hard hit, more so than statistics indicated.

Bloomberg’s data for vaccinations in Russia is out of date by about 10 days. It indicates only about 1.5 million people received at least one dose by the 11th January:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

Worldwide the tally of doses (not people) is up to 54+ million. I look at this page daily. Every increase means we are one step closer to the death rate dropping and this crisis being over.

Take all Russian statistics with a grain, nay, a box of salt. Recently they revealed that the real death rate is 3x higher than the official one.



Concerning vaccination -- I know a lot of people in Moscow, and I was quite surprised to learn a week or two ago that practically all of them, including some young and healthy people under 40, have already been vaccinated.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

...
I think excess deaths are the best single figure we can use to indicate the TOTAL impact of this pandemic. I have never stated that this figure is equal to the total who have died from contracting COVID-19...

Exactly. The pandemic is killing people who did not get the virus, or so one would think, since people are possibly not getting health care that they would have absent the pandemic. Cancer might have killed a person, but if that person did not get treatment because they could/would not get care because of the virus, it was a death caused by the pandemic. That will only get caught at a very high level.

I know single people who are suffering mentally from this lock down. Suicides seem to have ticked up a bit in the US for 2020 but I suspect a real upturn won't be seen until 2021 or 2022.

Flip side is that we should see less traffic deaths since people are not having to go to work as much. I know in my area there was a drastic drop in traffic deaths early in the lock down. But I doubt the drop in traffic deaths will counter the higher suicide rate.

Excess deaths for 2020, 2021, and maybe 2022 will have to be compared with previous years to understand the pandemic cost in lives.

One of the Dutch "papers" I read has been comparing excess deaths with previous years. At one point, there was a big increase in excess deaths early in the pandemic, but then it leveled off. It will be interesting to see the 2020 numbers.

Later,
Dan

[UFO]

"UK government borrowing hit £34.1bn last month, the highest December figure on record


The UK's overall debt has now reached 99.4% of gross domestic product!!!!!


Borrowing could reach £393.5bn by the end of the financial year in March"


That's not happy reading and I suspect the next financial year will be equally depressing as well.


I struggle to see how 99.4% debt of GDP is sustainable at all.


They are presumably issuing bonds to cover the printing of money?



SO who is buying all this debt?


I wonder how much is actually due to lock downs and how much to covid - Does anyone have any analysis on this sort of thing?



https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55762674

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by UFO

"UK government borrowing hit £34.1bn last month, the highest December figure on record

The UK's overall debt has now reached 99.4% of gross domestic product!!!!!

Borrowing could reach £393.5bn by the end of the financial year in March"

That's not happy reading and I suspect the next financial year will be equally depressing as well.

I struggle to see how 99.4% debt of GDP is sustainable at all.

They are presumably issuing bonds to cover the printing of money?

SO who is buying all this debt?

The markets are crazy for any kind of yield. I am right now paying negative interest rates on my company accounts in Finland!! So the market buys these bonds. The investors will lose big when even a little bit of inflation starts up.

UK won't pay for that but future bond issues will cost dramatically more. THAT is what could be unsustainable. 100% GDP in debt is not necessarily the end of the world. Japan as 238% of GDP as debt; the U.S. has 107% and that's just at the federal level. See: https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...-national-debt

Originally Posted by UFO

I wonder how much is actually due to lock downs and how much to covid - Does anyone have any analysis on this sort of thing?. . .

No one knows, and this is fundamentally unknowable, because we don't know what the outcome would have been without lockdown. Furthermore, the economic crisis is not even made in one country -- when the rest of the world is in crisis even a country with no lockdown and no infections will suffer economically. And to put a cherry on top of all of that, the UK has just been through Brexit.

I can guess, but it's just wild speculation on my part, that the UK COULD have had a similar or better outcome with an intelligent combination of less restrictive measures, and especially if those had been imposed earlier, in which case there would be far less economic damage. But hindsight is nice, isn't it? If the UK had just slammed the border closed in February maybe nothing at all besides intense contact tracing would have been needed -- look at Taiwan. But it's too late for that now.

[Dockhead]

More good news from Moscow: Museums, theatres, concert halls open today in the capital. Moscow has over 800 dramatic theatres; Muscovites can't live without their cultural life. Really happy for them.

[UFO]

Coronavirus cases 'DIDN'T fall during the first ten days of Lockdown 3.0'




https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...dy-claims.html

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by UFO

Coronavirus cases 'DIDN'T fall during the first ten days of Lockdown 3.0'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...dy-claims.html

There is some good news buried in there -- R0 is way down to about 0.6 in London and the Southeast. Very good news indeed. That is a rapid contraction of the epidemic there.

Horrible to see, however, that my beloved Isle of Wight is being whacked with more than 10,000 daily cases per million per week, an astronomical rate. I need to reach out to my friends there and make sure they're ok.

It's now been exactly a year since I was in the UK last, a place which has been my second home for more than 20 years, spending most winters in Cowes and a significant percentage of my working days in London. Now my London office is closed, and I've been a whole year without even seeing London -- longest I've been since I guess 30 years. Wow, I'm homesick for winter sailing in the Solent, for London theatres, for my friends there. I wish this nightmare would finally end . . .

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Take all Russian statistics with a grain, nay, a box of salt. Recently they revealed that the real death rate is 3x higher than the official one ...

Indeed.
“Russian excess deaths over summer outstrip COVID toll by more than 3 to 1"
“MOSCOW (Reuters) - The number of excess deaths in Russia between May and July was more than three times higher than the official coronavirus toll, recent government data show, a discrepancy some experts say raises questions about the accuracy of Moscow’s counting ..."
➥ https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUKL8N2G43LY
and
“Russia’s Mortality Hit 16-Year High in November, Official Data Says”
"Excess deaths 230,000 higher than in 2019 — and six times official tally of coronavirus deaths ...”
➥ https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/...ta-says-a72505

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

There is some good news buried in there -- R0 is way down to about 0.6 in London and the Southeast. Very good news indeed. That is a rapid contraction of the epidemic there.

Horrible to see, however, that my beloved Isle of Wight is being whacked with more than 10,000 daily cases per million per week, an astronomical rate. I need to reach out to my friends there and make sure they're ok.

It's now been exactly a year since I was in the UK last, a place which has been my second home for more than 20 years, spending most winters in Cowes and a significant percentage of my working days in London. Now my London office is closed, and I've been a whole year without even seeing London -- longest I've been since I guess 30 years. Wow, I'm homesick for winter sailing in the Solent, for London theatres, for my friends there. I wish this nightmare would finally end . . .

Your not missing much at the moment in London or the UK. My wife recently returned from London and everything was pretty much shut and and its essential travel only. It's not much fun in old blighty at the moment especially as this economic downturn is really hurting individuals and families - I have a lot of family and friends there and some of them are finding it very hard financially.

[Seaworthy Lass]

I just want to give someone a hug and share a meal and laughter with friends.
The one time I did this (outdoors) during the last 11 months left me teary for days, as it hit home what I was missing.

I have little to complain about, as we are in an extremely lucky position and coping very well generally, but it weighs heavily on me that so many others are suffering terribly.

The first page I am opening each morning is Bloomberg’s vaccination counter. 56+ million doses have been reported now , 5.4 million of those in the UK. It was 30 million just days ago:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

[goboatingnow]

I wonder will it end , I was more confident in the past. I think we will be dealing with this all through 2021 and onwards

[UFO]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I wonder will it end , I was more confident in the past. I think we will be dealing with this all through 2021 and onwards

I can't see Australia opening in 2021 and they have said as much - Even if everyone is vaccinated they still will not open.


As for the rest of the world, some places will open others not so. As I have said previously vaccines are not the magic bullet and the virus in one form or another will be with us for the foreseeable future, Governments and People need to come to terms with this and except a certain amount of casualties and manage it like they do with the flu, if this does not happen I can see this going on for a very, very long time.