Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[JPA Cate]

... to simply save a very small % of the worlds population, most of which are already older than the average death rate of each country they die in - AKA they did not have a huge amount of time left anyway.

Imo, it is difficult to write about this sort of thing from a compassionate and also reasonable point of view. However, I really think the oldies, and the younger folks with pre-disposing problems are mostly not the people most needing effective vaccines. It certainly is true of the land-based sailors around here.

I would also say that the Australian response was aimed at "flattening the curve" to avoid the kinds of situations we all saw portrayed in the news media, people waiting in tents outside because ERs and ICUs were overfull. I think Australia did a good job; community transmission has been slow to non-existant.

In the early days of Covid in the US and here, too, there were a lot of elder care and nursing home deaths, and a huge outcry when younger people lost access to their elders. Both groups suffered emotionally from that isolation. I think we all understand that if you are sick enough to be in a nursing home, you are pretty ill, and with poor prospects for continued life, and also that those patients have circles of loved ones who want to see them get the best possible care. When someone is in ICU, with a machine doing their breathing for them, this is someone desperately ill. Maybe they can die in peace; perhaps that bed will be needed more for someone who may survive to give more to the society, or perhaps they've already served their society so well they still get the bed. Hard, hard decisions to have to make, but flattening the curve does make it easier for those who have to make them.

The thing is, there are also a number of "healthy" seniors, and it is all too easy to imply that because they are old is enough reason to discount their lives. Let them make their own health care decisions, and trust them to choose the best they can.

An informed public health scheme includes triage of the ones who cannot be helped, and indeed, if you don't have a health care directive, better be prepared to fight to be triaged out of care, if that's what you want for yourself.

Even if elders are a "small percentage of the population," let's not dwell heavily on the notion that "they don't have a huge amount of time left anyway", but instead consider that they deserve as much consideration as any other human being.

Ann

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

ZERO evidence for this...
source?

wrong question

You provide - or chemists - unbiased evidence that is effective. Population is at risk getting side effects without any benefit.

using same logic as for reporting inflation or unemployment rate, as we all know, one can produce any number desired.

[laird]

Originally Posted by arsenelupiga

wrong question

You provide - or chemists - unbiased evidence that is effective. Population is at risk getting side effects without any benefit.

using same logic as for reporting inflation or unemployment rate, as we all know, one can produce any number desired.

The vaccine program in the UK should start to provide results soon , there will no doubt be a massaging of the figures but I do expect to see a reduction in the death rate ,I do believe that the real death toll in the UK currently at 102,000 is far greater ,anyone dying from covid outside of the 28 day rule does not get counted as a covid death

I've seen this virus at work , so far I've only had to go into the red zone 4 times since this latest wave , I'm classed as front line NHS , I'm not medical staff but if there's an engineering /electrical problem I go in to fix it , every time I have to go in I admit to feeling fear , when you see people being wheeled out in plastic bags and your suiting up to go in it makes you think of your own mortality.

None of the guys on our team have refused the vaccine , we are in a better position than most to make that decision , every medical professional that I have spoken too has taken up the offer of the vaccine

So far no one has had any side effects from the shots , it takes up to three weeks for it to take effect

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by UFO

I have been saying all along that that is what will need to be done, but it's our perception of the virus and how our governments in the future continue to react is the real problem for our Kids and Grand kids.

If we can get to a mentality of how we treat the flu with vaccinating the at risk each year and accept that there will be several hundred thousand a year that die from it, like can die from the Flu then it will be OK, But if we continue to allow Fear and Paranoia to rule our decisions and try and save everyone, then we will be putting our future generations to the sword, to simply save a very small % of the worlds population, most of which are already older than the average death rate of each country they die in - AKA they did not have a huge amount of time left anyway.

Well, if COVID becomes endemic, then we will learn to live with it. We will have no choice, in that case! Which means that we will get used to it also. What we are going through now will end, one way or another, we can be sure of that.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Today Finland announced borders to Sweden and Norway are closed. Sigh.

That just about does it for any travel among the Nordic states. Last week Sweden closed borders to Denmark and Norway.

Denmark is closed to the whole world. Sigh.

Everyone is concerned about the UK and SA mutations. Sweden has in place the hardest measures it has employed since the beginning of the pandemic; Denmark is also on strict (by Nordic standards) measures.

This really sucks. Border closings are really oppressive in this part of the world, as the Nordic space is really like one single country in many ways, with very many people living in one country and working in another (especially across the Sound between Denmark and Sweden, and across the border between Sweden and Norway), many mixed families.

Fortunately the numbers are much, much better in Denmark and Sweden, which both had significant second waves. I really hope we get back to the conditions of September-October. But I don't know about the borders. Goboatingnow may be right. Surely at least by late spring things will loosen up?

Vaccination is going too slowly here to hope that vaccination alone will eliminate risks anytime soon.

When will this nightmare end?

Spring 2022 , write off this year

[Dockhead]

Numbers in our region continue to be fairly encouraging:



The Baltic States are the most troubling, at around 400 cases per million, but that's way down for Lithuania and well down for Latvia and Estonia, so it's moving in the right direction.

Sweden is now just over 300, and Germany and Denmark are now both well under 150.

Even UK is looking better and better, way down from the peak and now well under 500.

As far as death is concerned:




UK looks horrible with an astronomical rate of over 18. With case rates so far down, surely this will come down soon.

But elsewhere there is EXCELLENT news -- Germany finally sees death rates come down, to 7.65 after having been over 10 for weeks.

And Sweden looking fantastic with death rates having fallen from nearly 10 at New Years, all the way to 1.84, 4 times less than the European average today. I have to laugh when I remember someone in this thread a couple of weeks ago "proving" from the angle (!) of the death rate curve over a couple of days (!), that the Swedish death rate was, and I quote, "exploding" In fact, the peak was 31 December.

Latvia is going the right way, now 8, and Estonia not all that bad at 5.3. Denmark has fallen below 5.

This picture looks quite encouraging, HOWEVER people are a little spooked here by the mutant strains. Just talked to someone in the Finnish health services yesterday who said that even stricter measures are being prepared; that it is widely considered that "our luck is running out", since we mostly missed the first wave and entirely missed the second wave, and so have much less natural immunity than Sweden and Denmark, which have both been through serious outbreaks. Plus we are far behind with vaccinations.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, if COVID becomes endemic, then we will learn to live with it. We will have no choice, in that case! Which means that we will get used to it also. What we are going through now will end, one way or another, we can be sure of that.

Yes I suspect it will be well on 2022

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by laird

The vaccine program in the UK should start to provide results soon , there will no doubt be a massaging of the figures but I do expect to see a reduction in the death rate ,I do believe that the real death toll in the UK currently at 102,000 is far greater ,anyone dying from covid outside of the 28 day rule does not get counted as a covid death

I've seen this virus at work , so far I've only had to go into the red zone 4 times since this latest wave , I'm classed as front line NHS , I'm not medical staff but if there's an engineering /electrical problem I go in to fix it , every time I have to go in I admit to feeling fear , when you see people being wheeled out in plastic bags and your suiting up to go in it makes you think of your own mortality.

None of the guys on our team have refused the vaccine , we are in a better position than most to make that decision , every medical professional that I have spoken too has taken up the offer of the vaccine

So far no one has had any side effects from the shots , it takes up to three weeks for it to take effect

thks for that
so you in good position to answer this:

vaccine does not make you immune but makes symptoms les dangerous. If you get vaccine, what is in it for the destination place you will be visiting ? You still be transmitter, so you will be rejected entry, or will have to go thru quarantine. Which is same process as the other person that has not taken vaccine and visiting same place. Clearly there is a risk of side effects, that will for sure be attempted to push under carpet for as long as possible.

So, why would i take vaccine then as I have low risk habits?

[Dockhead]

Numbers in our region continue to be fairly encouraging:


Attachment 231439


The Baltic States are the most troubling, at around 400 cases per million, but that's way down for Lithuania and well down for Latvia and Estonia, so it's moving in the right direction.


Sweden is now just over 300, and Germany and Denmark are now both well under 150.


Even UK is looking better and better, way down from the peak and now well under 500.


As far as death is concerned:

Attachment 231440


UK looks horrible with an astronomical rate of over 18. With case rates so far down, surely this will come down soon.


But elsewhere there is EXCELLENT news -- Germany finally sees death rates come down, to 7.65 after having been over 10 for weeks.


And Sweden looking fantastic with death rates having fallen from nearly 10 at New Years, all the way to 1.84, 4 times less than the European average today. I have to laugh when I remember someone in this thread a couple of weeks ago "proving" from the angle (!) of the death rate curve over a couple of days (!), that the Swedish death rate was, and I quote, "exploding" In fact, the peak was 31 December.



Latvia is going the right way, now 8, and Estonia not all that bad at 5.3. Denmark has fallen below 5.


This picture looks quite encouraging, HOWEVER people are a little spooked here by the mutant strains. Just talked to someone in the Finnish health services yesterday who said that even stricter measures are being prepared; that it is widely considered that "our luck is running out", since we mostly missed the first wave and entirely missed the second wave, and so have much less natural immunity than Sweden and Denmark, which have both been through serious outbreaks. Plus we are far behind with vaccinations.

[Dockhead]

Numbers in our region continue to be fairly encouraging:



The Baltic States are the most troubling, at around 400 cases per million, but that's way down for Lithuania and well down for Latvia and Estonia, so it's moving in the right direction.

Sweden is now just over 300, and Germany and Denmark are now both well under 150.

Even UK is looking better and better, way down from the peak and now well under 500.

As far as death is concerned:



UK looks horrible with an astronomical rate of over 18. With case rates so far down, surely this will come down soon.

But elsewhere there is EXCELLENT news -- Germany finally sees death rates come down, to 7.65 after having been over 10 for weeks.

And Sweden looking fantastic with death rates having fallen from nearly 10 at New Years, all the way to 1.84, 4 times less than the European average today. I have to laugh when I remember someone in this thread a couple of weeks ago "proving" from the angle (!) of the death rate curve over a couple of days (!), that the Swedish death rate was, and I quote, "exploding" In fact, the peak was 31 December.

Latvia is going the right way, now 8, and Estonia not all that bad at 5.3. Denmark has fallen below 5.

This picture looks quite encouraging, HOWEVER people are a little spooked here by the mutant strains. Just talked to someone in the Finnish health services yesterday who said that even stricter measures are being prepared; that it is widely considered that "our luck is running out", since we mostly missed the first wave and entirely missed the second wave, and so have much less natural immunity than Sweden and Denmark, which have both been through serious outbreaks. Plus we are far behind with vaccinations.

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, if COVID becomes endemic, then we will learn to live with it. We will have no choice, in that case! Which means that we will get used to it also. What we are going through now will end, one way or another, we can be sure of that.

sure, but there will be significant economic implications if this persists. Plague lasted in the past for centuries ! See bit of history. Most world lives now off money printing. That wont last much longer without already present hyperinflation.

[arsenelupiga]

northern hemisphere passed shortest day of year so things are improving.

Until next winter.

South hemisphere will ensure you will get brand new strains.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Imo, it is difficult to write about this sort of thing from a compassionate and also reasonable point of view. However, I really think the oldies, and the younger folks with pre-disposing problems are mostly not the people most needing effective vaccines. It certainly is true of the land-based sailors around here.

I would also say that the Australian response was aimed at "flattening the curve" to avoid the kinds of situations we all saw portrayed in the news media, people waiting in tents outside because ERs and ICUs were overfull. I think Australia did a good job; community transmission has been slow to non-existant.

In the early days of Covid in the US and here, too, there were a lot of elder care and nursing home deaths, and a huge outcry when younger people lost access to their elders. Both groups suffered emotionally from that isolation. I think we all understand that if you are sick enough to be in a nursing home, you are pretty ill, and with poor prospects for continued life, and also that those patients have circles of loved ones who want to see them get the best possible care. When someone is in ICU, with a machine doing their breathing for them, this is someone desperately ill. Maybe they can die in peace; perhaps that bed will be needed more for someone who may survive to give more to the society, or perhaps they've already served their society so well they still get the bed. Hard, hard decisions to have to make, but flattening the curve does make it easier for those who have to make them.

The thing is, there are also a number of "healthy" seniors, and it is all too easy to imply that because they are old is enough reason to discount their lives. Let them make their own health care decisions, and trust them to choose the best they can.

An informed public health scheme includes triage of the ones who cannot be helped, and indeed, if you don't have a health care directive, better be prepared to fight to be triaged out of care, if that's what you want for yourself.

Even if elders are a "small percentage of the population," let's not dwell heavily on the notion that "they don't have a huge amount of time left anyway", but instead consider that they deserve as much consideration as any other human being.

Ann

Don't take it the wrong way, as I am not taking any consideration away from the elderly, but I am saying we need to accept, as we do with the Flu, Heart Disease, Cancer, Dementia and so on that people are going to die (approximately 106,000 per day!) and to not have this mad panic and fear about it which is ripping the futures away from our kids and grand kids.


Once we can get to that stage of acceptance and vaccinate as many of those at risk then life and the economy will start to get back to normal with mortality rates nothing like we have seen if the vaccines are any good.



The thing is that death is part of the cycle of life and 'Many' of those that die from covid have reached their time and if it was not covid, then it would have been the flu or something else at some point in the near future. We have never had any issues with several hundred thousand who die some years of the flu, so why should it be any different with covid if the figures are similar?

[UFO]

Originally Posted by arsenelupiga

northern hemisphere passed shortest day of year so things are improving.

Until next winter.

South hemisphere will ensure you will get brand new strains.

Nah its not all doom and gloom unless we allow it to be

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by UFO

Nah its not all doom and gloom unless we allow it to be

The areas that did little to control the outbreak have spawned variants , uk , Brazil , SA. I expect several will appear in the US

This situation is getting worse not better