Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by laird

Looks like there is a new kid on the block , another vaccine ,this one is called Novavax ,it appears to be from the UK ,it claims to be 89% effective against the new variant in the UK
This raises a couple of questions, was this new vacine manufactured because of the new variant ? If so how long have they known about the new strain , the goal posts are constantly moving ,its increasingly difficult to be able to see when the new normal will begin

A few answers may be found here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NVX-CoV2373

Novavax announced this vaccine development began Jan, 2020. Phase I trails began in May 2020 and were completed by September 2020

[capn_billl]

One difference between smallpox, and covid is the early appearance of skin sores from head to foot making it immediately obvious you are sick.

The other is smallpox is too severe to allow the sick to travel.

Many get, and recover from covid without even being aware they are sick.

This made quarantine impossible until we developed an effective test.

Another is smallpox kills all ages.

Covid is more weighted on the elderly, and those with (undetected?) Health issues.

[boatman61]

Johnson & Johnson weigh in with a new single shot vaccine up for approval, efficacy reckoned at 66.5>... Cost around 7 quid a shot.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by laird

..
I think all of the private sector is small change compared with high street shops and office space , two of my children work from home now , one is saving around 7k in commuting costs the other a bit less , i think a lot of people will want to work from home if they can , its a win win situation and that will leave a lot of empty office space.

Housing land lords can be large companies or individuals. The large company might, big word might, have the ability to have a large number of non rent paying renters but does the small company or individual? If the land lord still has a mortgage to pay, the renter is not paying, and the land lord looses a year of rent, aka, can't pay his mortgage, taxes, maintenance, etc., bad things are going to happen. I surely doubt The Tax Man will say, oh, you don't have to pay your taxes for the year. This will impact the economy, especially locally.

Yes, there will be a big hit on the office buildings and those companies that serve the people in those building who no longer use those offices.

Some small local businesses that depend on the office workers in my area have been suffering for years as jobs were sent over seas. I have not been back to my office since last March ,and all information I see, is that we will likely be working from home the majority of the time in the future. Those local businesses dependent on the office workers are toast. They were barely making ends meet before and I assume they have all gone out of business since the lock down.

Originally Posted by fxykty

Yup, commercial office space is due for a shakeup. As an example from New Zealand, I worked for a bank that leased 3 office buildings in Auckland’s CBD. By the end of 2020 they had terminated leases on 2 of the buildings and are down to only 60% of the third (and now only) building. Their head count went down 10%, but the bigger difference is that on average most office workers are WFH just over 2 days per week. Downtown parking lots earnings and transit revenues are both down. New normal?

I now my company is reworking office space to handle work from home and they have ended leases in at least one city, and from what I read, this is happening in other companies and places as well.

Early on the lock down, I read of people leaving big, expensive cities like San Francisco to work from home in less expensive states. The employer said ok, and was able to save money, not only on providing office space, but gave the employee a pay cut as well. The employee was ok with the pay cut because they were living in an area where the expenses were much less, and even with a pay cut, they were better off money wise, not to mention that their quality of life improved.

I do think this is going to continue to happen in the US for a variety of reasons. Part of it is going to depend on StarLink's success.

Later,
Dan

[Seaworthy Lass]

On the first day of the last month of winter in the northern hemisphere, COVID-19 vaccinations hit the 9 figure mark!
Reported doses have now exceeded 100 million worldwide:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

They were just 65 million a week ago.

Unfortunately, the latest figures for Northern Europe indicate the numbers are still changing only slowly. The total number of doses and number per 100 people are shown below. There has been a furore in the EU this last week regarding supply issues, and elsewhere regarding the resulting restriction of vaccine exports announced by the EU.

Denmark 270,026 (4.65)
Lithuania 92,561 (3.33)
Finland 163,760 (2.97)
Estonia 38,594 (2.91)

EU average: (2.86)

Sweden 248,991 (2.41)
Norway 124,326 (2.32)
Latvia 23,739 (1.24)

In comparison the UK and US are proceeding at a cracking pace:

U.K. 9,790,576 (14.66)

U.S. 32,844,840 (10.00)

Regarding deaths in the UK (along with Portugal & Spain currently the hardest hit in Europe with excess deaths per head of population) the curve looked like it was starting to flatten a week ago and it is now definitely coming down.

With the combination of dramatically reduced infections and nearly all of those 70 years of age and over & other extremely vulnerable individuals having now received the first dose of a vaccine (plus winter coming to a close), I am still very hopeful that the worst of this crisis will be over by spring in the UK.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

On the first day of the last month of winter in the northern hemisphere, COVID-19 vaccinations hit the 9 figure mark!
Reported doses have now exceeded 100 million worldwide:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

They were just 65 million a week ago.

Unfortunately, the latest figures for Northern Europe indicate the numbers are still changing only slowly. The total number of doses and number per 100 people are shown below. There has been a furore in the EU this last week regarding supply issues, and elsewhere regarding the resulting restriction of vaccine exports announced by the EU.

Denmark 270,026 (4.65)
Lithuania 92,561 (3.33)
Finland 163,760 (2.97)
Estonia 38,594 (2.91)

EU average: (2.86)

Sweden 248,991 (2.41)
Norway 124,326 (2.32)
Latvia 23,739 (1.24)

In comparison the UK and US are proceeding at a cracking pace:

U.K. 9,790,576 (14.66)

U.S. 32,844,840 (10.00)

Regarding deaths in the UK (along with Portugal & Spain currently the hardest hit in Europe with excess deaths per head of population) the curve looked like it was starting to flatten a week ago and it is now definitely coming down.

With the combination of dramatically reduced infections and nearly all of those 70 years of age and over & other extremely vulnerable individuals having now received the first dose of a vaccine (plus winter coming to a close), I am still very hopeful that the worst of this crisis will be over by spring in the UK.

Yes, I'm also hopeful.


Things looking better and better across the region:





Dramatic reduction of infection rate in UK. Latvia and Estonia somewhat worrying. Whole Nordic region looking really good.


What concerns death:





The UK curve has definitely turned down, but the rate is still pretty appalling. But with the infection rate down and vaccination proceeding at such a remarkable pace I've got to agree with SWL that the worst has got to be behind already. This is especially encouraging considering the new strain in the UK. Test positivity rate in the UK has been falling steadily and is now below 5% -- very encouraging.



Death in the Nordic region is now falling off to nothing. Only Denmark still above 3, but that's a low rate (5x lower than UK). Estonia reasonable; Latvia somewhat worrying. Data on deaths in Sweden is incomplete and might be updated this afternoon, but I would expect that, tracking the infection rates with some lag time, death is falling well down there. Germany is weird with persistent high death rate and apparently low infection rate, but that might be a function of small number of tests:





Positivity rate is pretty high at over 10%.

[Dockhead]

Just heard from my friend in Israel, who is in despair over the continuing lockdown, which has been going on for over 10 months. She said people are starting to commit suicide. Despite the world-beating pace of vaccination there, they are still having a really tough time:

[barnakiel]

Yes. Israel is doing very well. Do you think they will become the next cruising paradise?


Meanwhile Spain has only 0.5% people vaccinated. They have just stopped giving Astra-Zeneca to people above 65. And AZ is basically all they have here.


No Ibiza orgies this summer I guess.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Yes. Israel is doing very well. Do you think they will become the next cruising paradise?


Meanwhile Spain has only 0.5% people vaccinated. They have just stopped giving Astra-Zeneca to people above 65. And AZ is basically all they have here.


No Ibiza orgies this summer I guess.

Wouldn't bet on that, YOLO!

[Montanan]

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has 92% efficacy in Phase III clinical trial

Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine gives around 92% protection against Covid-19, late stage trial results published in The Lancet reveal.

It has also been deemed to be safe - and offer complete protection against hospitalisation and death.

The vaccine was initially met with some controversy after being rolled out before the final trial data had been released. But scientists said its benefit has now been demonstrated.

It joins the ranks of proven vaccines alongside Pfizer, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Moderna and Janssen. The Sputnik vaccine works in a similar way to the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab developed in the UK, and the Janssen vaccine developed in Belgium. It uses a cold-type virus, engineered to be harmless, as a carrier to deliver a small fragment of the coronavirus to the body.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55900622

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Russia's Sputnik V vaccine has 92% efficacy in Phase III clinical trial

Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine gives around 92% protection against Covid-19, late stage trial results published in The Lancet reveal.

It has also been deemed to be safe - and offer complete protection against hospitalisation and death.

The vaccine was initially met with some controversy after being rolled out before the final trial data had been released. But scientists said its benefit has now been demonstrated.

It joins the ranks of proven vaccines alongside Pfizer, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Moderna and Janssen. The Sputnik vaccine works in a similar way to the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab developed in the UK, and the Janssen vaccine developed in Belgium. It uses a cold-type virus, engineered to be harmless, as a carrier to deliver a small fragment of the coronavirus to the body.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55900622

Great news! And one of my plans for getting vaccinated before next autumn, is to go to Moscow to get this one. They have rolled out a massive distribution program and there are NO LINES -- you can go to one of the hundreds of vaccination points and, come one, come all, anyone will get vaccinated on the spot. Even illegal aliens!

[Dockhead]

And more thumping great news: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02...19-coronavirus Covid-19 Live Updates: Study Finds AstraZeneca Shots Drastically Cut Transmission So one more irrational fear bites the dust. First it was that you get no immunity from having the disease -- so you could get sick over and over again and there would never be any herd immunity. Then it was something else. Now it was that the vaccine won't prevent transmission. Scratch that one off too. Fantastic news!!!! It means we will definitely snuff out the pandemic this year, and probably sooner rather than later. We just need to hold on for a bit. AND GET VACCINATED!

[goboatingnow]

Well it’s the darkest hour before the dawn here in Ireland. 500 euro fine if you try and leave the country unless you can justify the journey as “ absolutely necessary “ mandatory hotel quarantine being considered , at your own expense for incoming travellers

Chief medical officer advice “ forget about holidays this year “ !!!!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Well it’s the darkest hour before the dawn here in Ireland. 500 euro fine if you try and leave the country unless you can justify the journey as “ absolutely necessary “ mandatory hotel quarantine being considered , at your own expense for incoming travellers

Chief medical officer advice “ forget about holidays this year “ !!!!

Well, you're outpacing the European average in vaccination (even if you're way behind the UK). The vaccine should start biting community spread pretty soon. Your infection rate is way down, to 248. Death rate is still awfully high at over 10, but surely that will come down soon with infection rates falling. Hang on!

[Dockhead]

On the darker side, the UK mutation is becoming prevalent in Sweden: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2A21QB Despite the UK mutation, however, the numbers in Sweden are looking very good, with deaths, hospitalizations, and test positivity falling right off. Maybe the UK mutation is not such a game changer after all. This thing works in waves in any case. This wave is subsiding. Surely we will have enough people vaccinated by the time the next wave would be starting up, to seriously dampen it, if not snuff it out completely. I do believe we are nearing the end of the tunnel.