Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Fantastic news from the UK. Thank God.

I can't say it looks so good here. Finland has broken 100 daily cases per million for the first time and people are freaking out a little. Sweden is going the wrong way, with daily cases back up to nearly 400. Latvia has been doing slowly better and better but still over 350. Estonia having a terrible outbreak, pushing 900. Norway going the wrong way -- still under 100, but rising. Denmark, which was doing so well after a terrible outbreak in the autumn, now drifting back up towards 100.

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And NONE of these places has vaccinated a significant number of people. Neither Germany nor Sweden has even cracked a 0.2% daily vaccination rate (compare to nearly 0.7% in the UK and over 0.5% in the U.S.). Norway and Finland doing only slightly better; only Denmark stands out and even Denmark is only vaccinating 0.3% of the population every day.

The problem is supply, because the EU made a hash out of procurement. The Germans are negotiating with the Russians to acquire some Sputnik V; Hungary and Czechia are already receiving it. I hope Finland will be next -- apparently the Russians are producing gigantic quantities of Sputnik V such that they don't even know what to do with it. Send some here!

Not sure people see things from the same perspective as me, so please do not take offense, but 100 daily cases per million and people are freaking out? I'm sorry but people need to get a grip on reality and stop buying into the fear campaign that has been ever present from the media - All you see is either the spread of fear or propaganda for vaccines on a daily basis, the main stream media has gone into overdrive and its quite sickening.


The political and economic manipulation of Covid is out of control and if you think the vaccine is the panchaea, then you should follow what is being said more closely, as this form of control is not going away.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by UFO

Not sure people see things from the same perspective as me, so please do not take offense, but 100 daily cases per million and people are freaking out? I'm sorry but people need to get a grip on reality and stop buying into the fear campaign that has been ever present from the media - All you see is either the spread of fear or propaganda for vaccines on a daily basis, the main stream media has gone into overdrive and its quite sickening.. ..

No offense taken. I agree that 100 cases is not, by itself, an issue; plus there has been no measurable excess mortality in Finland. What has got people in Finland alarmed is that many of those are the more contagious UK mutant, and the trend is going in the wrong direction. Remember we never had a lockdown and no lockdown is being discussed now; our restaurants are even open. But they will be closed from 8 March for a while.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

What has got people in Finland alarmed is that many of those are the more contagious UK mutant, and the trend is going in the wrong direction.

Could be a misinterpretation on my part, but it seems I've been hearing and reading conflicting expert opinion on the efficacy of the various vaccines when it comes to the known mutant viruses, most specifically the UK and S. African variants. Correct me if I got it wrong, but the latest from Fauci, et al. seems to be that the current vaccines are in fact effective against these mutant strains, but perhaps to some degree less than they are against "regular" Covid. I understand why the faster the population gets vaccinated the less chance of potentially more contagious and virile mutants developing, but I don't get the sense that earlier fears of widespread vaccine resistance are bearing out. Perhaps the answer is that the experts don't yet really know, and are (understandably) erring on the side of caution. Let's hope so.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Germany has administered only 15% of the AstraZeneca coronavirus shots it has available, as the vaccine faces public resistance after trials showed it to be less effective than alternatives. The ministry said the vaccine would now be offered to people that are in other priority groups after saying earlier this week state workers such as teachers and police would get priority access. Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman today urged people to trust the vaccine which was developed at Britain's Oxford University, saying it was safe and effective.

Delivery volumes to the European Union were expected to be at half the level AstraZeneca had contracted to supply in the second quarter. Germany now expects 16 million doses in the second quarter, previously the country was expected to receive about 34 million AstraZeneca shots in the second quarter
In total, Germany expects 56.3 million doses from AstraZeneca under the EU contract, which is equal to 18.7% of 300 million doses for the EU.

Astra is not trusted because VDL, Merkel and Macron got in a huff and declared it useless for over 65's, Macron going as far as to say it only had 8% efficaccy..
They made their beds and are now complaining because they 'short sheeted' the bed.
No evidence the Oxford jab is being refused in large numbers in the UK.. reports about this are purely anecdotal.. with over 20million vaccinated to date methinks the Astra jab is flying off the shelves.
I for one will choose it over one of the MRA jabs.

[wolfgal]

in regards to my post about the questioning the need to suspend intellectual property rights held by the pharma companies so that the world can get a grip on covid, it seems the US govt is getting involved. i'm not sure if this is a first or not, but it will likely make a huge difference in terms of outcome for the states (and hopefully elsewhere):

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03...hnsons-vaccine

[Exile]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

in regards to my post about the questioning the need to suspend intellectual property rights held by the pharma companies so that the world can get a grip on covid, it seems the US govt is getting involved. i'm not sure if this is a first or not, but it will likely make a huge difference in terms of outcome for the states (and hopefully elsewhere):

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/03...hnsons-vaccine

Looks promising, and kudos to all involved parties. But likely not a suspension of intellectual property rights. On the contrary, probably a licensing arrangement which preserves those rights while also helping to meet pressing demand. I'm still not aware of anything which suggests pharma cos. aren't doing everything they can to produce as many doses as is feasible. Doesn't mean the claim is unfounded, only that I haven't come across anything to that effect in the news.

[RoseofWight]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Astra is not trusted because VDL, Merkel and Macron got in a huff and declared it useless for over 65's, Macron going as far as to say it only had 8% efficaccy..
They made their beds and are now complaining because they 'short sheeted' the bed.
No evidence the Oxford jab is being refused in large numbers in the UK.. reports about this are purely anecdotal.. with over 20million vaccinated to date methinks the Astra jab is flying off the shelves.
I for one will choose it over one of the MRA jabs.

You might find this of interest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3otWaBrvEc

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Exile

Could be a misinterpretation on my part, but it seems I've been hearing and reading conflicting expert opinion on the efficacy of the various vaccines when it comes to the known mutant viruses, most specifically the UK and S. African variants. Correct me if I got it wrong, but the latest from Fauci, et al. seems to be that the current vaccines are in fact effective against these mutant strains, but perhaps to some degree less than they are against "regular" Covid. I understand why the faster the population gets vaccinated the less chance of potentially more contagious and virile mutants developing, but I don't get the sense that earlier fears of widespread vaccine resistance are bearing out. Perhaps the answer is that the experts don't yet really know, and are (understandably) erring on the side of caution. Let's hope so.

My understanding is that most of the vaccines are effective against the UK strain, and somewhat less effective against the S. Africa strain.


The fear is simply that the increased contagiousness of the UK strain will fuel a big outbreak. That's all. Vaccination is going slowly here because of EU-caused issues with supply.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Exile

Looks promising, and kudos to all involved parties. But likely not a suspension of intellectual property rights. On the contrary, probably a licensing arrangement which preserves those rights while also helping to meet pressing demand. I'm still not aware of anything which suggests pharma cos. aren't doing everything they can to produce as many doses as is feasible. Doesn't mean the claim is unfounded, only that I haven't come across anything to that effect in the news.

Well, when their production is basicly still on petri dish compared to russians I'd say they are far from doing everything they could

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by Exile

Looks promising, and kudos to all involved parties. But likely not a suspension of intellectual property rights. On the contrary, probably a licensing arrangement which preserves those rights while also helping to meet pressing demand. I'm still not aware of anything which suggests pharma cos. aren't doing everything they can to produce as many doses as is feasible. Doesn't mean the claim is unfounded, only that I haven't come across anything to that effect in the news.

Hi Exile,

yes, this is good news, though, you are correct in that it doesn't involve sharing the making of the formula. but it is a start.

and actually, there was a misunderstanding of some sort, as i was not making any claim about pharmas not doing their max to produce doses, nor did i suggest they did anything short of a miracle with finding a vaccine. really, i do not know from where this came

i hope i can say this in a clear way this time...

the question: so to face the problem of covid's potentially deadlier mutations (a terrible one called covid-25, for instance) from overtaking the planet, should we not evoke the possibility of suspending intellectual property rights on vaccine formulas so to get ahead of the virus, globally?

and, of course, the pension problem is a huge part of the equation and would require solving.

thanks for being so diplomatic, by the way.

wolfgal

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by RoseofWight

You might find this of interest.

Good enuf.. Oxford 4 me..
Cheers..

[Montanan]

Germany’s health minister says the country’s independent vaccine committee has formally approved giving the AstraZeneca shot to people age 65 and over

The vaccine made by British-Swedish company AstraZeneca is one of three authorized for use in the 27-nation European Union. But several countries, including Germany, initially restricted it to people under 65, or in some cases under 55, citing a lack of data on its effectiveness in older people. The publication of data and pressure to speed up the EU's slow vaccine rollout has prompted authorities across the EU to revise their guidance. The independent committee, known by its German acronym StiKo, also advised waiting 12 weeks [3 months] between administering the first and second AstraZeneca shots, as studies show this increases the vaccine's effectiveness.

The committee's recommendations will be swiftly incorporated in Germany's vaccine rules, so as to allow more people to get the shots sooner. France, Belgium and Italy already loosened their age restrictions for the AstraZeneca vaccine earlier this week

Restrictive rules and a rush of deliveries mean Germany is sitting on a stockpile of more than 2 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine even as many who want it can't get the shots.

Stay safe, stay healthy.

[Dockhead]

The icy sea in the Estonian islands, from the air, yesterday

[Dockhead]

In an earlier post, Seaworthy Lass asked why the vaccination program was going so slowly in Latvia.

I asked a Latvian friend, who rolled her eyes and said: Well, what else do expect from them? The Cabinet of Potatoheads?

Indeed, one Minister of Health, was substituted for another, in January, over the vaccination program. https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/...ences.a387746/

The new Minister Potatohead is a career politician, head of one of the parties, with zero knowledge of experience of health.

The former Minister was apparently at odds with the PM over various issues, such as mask-wearing: https://eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/...issal.a387808/

In this part of the world, there has been considerable skepticism about mask-wearing among the scientific community and health authorities and reluctance to order wide-scale masking. Latvia no exception, which was intolerable to the politicians.

Very different from many other countries, like, say Poland, where I spent a good bit of time during the summer and autumn, and where masking was legally compulsory even outdoors, on the streets of Warsaw. In Finland, I'm not sure masking is compulsory anywhere, not even in public transport. However there is now a clear recommendation, which practically everyone follows, and certainly I wear my mask religiously.

A lot of the scientific controversy over masking relates to plain MEDICAL masks, not N95 respirators. Indeed the science about the value of wearing plain medical masks is a bit unclear, but I think there can be no question that N95 masks without valves are hugely useful. Finland more than any other country in the world to my knowledge nailed the PPE supply question with large strategic reserves of PPE, and throughout the pandemic you have been able to buy N95 (or the European equivalent) masks freely and for under a dollar apiece. Most people in Finland are using proper N95 respirators, as I am.

Back to vaccination in Latvia:

As you can see from this:



Latvia continues to lag sluggishly, administering doses to only 0.13% of the population per day, far behind the rest of the region. Good to see that the daily vaccination rates have shot up sharply in Estonia and Sweden, where they seem to getting themselves together.

And look at the U.S.!! This is fantastic -- 0.6% of the population per day -- that's almost 2 million people every day, or the entire population of Estonia!

Finland is also doing somewhat better, although today -- I had a meeting with a, well prominent figure in Finnish culture, who is very frustrated with the program and is going next week to Moscow with a few of his colleagues to get the Sputnik vaccine. He intends to tweet a photo of the needle going in with an image of the satellite overlaid, as a reproach to the Finnish vaccination program.

The cumulative situation looks like this:



Hugely impressive performance of U.K. and U.S. The average in the EU is that there are 8.3 doses administered per 100 people, less than 1/3 the figure for the U.S. and about 1/4 the figure for the U.K. Good to see that my entire region except for Germany and poor laggard Latvia, are now ABOVE the EU average for cumulative doses, with Denmark leading at about 1.5x the EU average.

Really happy about the U.S. figures. By now I think it's entirely believable what I posted a couple of months ago about the U.S. being totally over this and back to normal life by the end of June -- I posted an analysis to that effect by a data scientists, and by Jove it looks like it will be so.

The U.K. already has 32 doses administered per 100 people, and at this rate everyone vaguely vulnerable will be vaccinated by May, so normal life there too. The light at the the tunnel is hurtling towards us. This firms up my resolve to return to Cowes with my boat this fall.

[Montanan]

Not what we want to hear.

Variant in Brazil more likely to reinfect survivors

A coronavirus variant circulating in Brazil is likely able to reinfect people who survived infections with earlier versions of the coronavirus, new data suggest. The variant that emerged in Brazil, called P.1, carries a mutation that is already known to make a variant prevalent in South Africa harder to treat with antibodies and harder to prevent with available vaccines. New data suggest that in many recovered patients, immunity to earlier versions of the virus will not afford immunity to P.1. Researchers tested the neutralizing ability of antibodies in plasma samples taken from survivors of COVID-19 caused by earlier versions of the virus. The plasma "had 6-fold less neutralizing capacity" against the P.1 variant than against earlier virus versions, the researchers reported on Monday ahead of peer-review on a preprint server belonging to The Lancet journal. "Lower neutralization capacity of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and partial immunity against new variants suggests that reinfection could occur in convalescent or even vaccinated individuals," the authors said. In a separate paper posted on Wednesday on medRxiv ahead of peer review, some of the same researchers estimated that among every 100 survivors of COVID-19 due to earlier virus versions, 25-to-60 could become reinfected if exposed to the P.1 variant because their antibodies could not protect them. As of Thursday, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control of Prevention, there have been 13 cases of COVID-19 due to P.1 in the United States. (https://bit.ly/2PyNFGt; https://bit.ly/3qeqq1a)