Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

On the down side we still have at least 4 weeks of “stay-at-home” lockdown.
I would have thought restrictions would be starting to lift by now, but not so .
The UK is still at a standstill.

SWL

Stay at home ends March 29.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Anders

Stay at home ends March 29.

Not in Scotland it doesn’t.
The 5th of April is the earliest possible date announced so far, and even this is not definite.

[RoseofWight]

There might be a slight uptick in cases in Glasgow due to a recent sporting event there :S.

I'm looking forward to a more 'normal' summer here in Suffolk (England).

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by RoseofWight

There might be a slight uptick in cases in Glasgow due to a recent sporting event there :S.

I'm looking forward to a more 'normal' summer here in Suffolk (England).

Dinna fash. Rangers fans are a tough bunch .

I think everyone in Scotland is looking forward to summer too. It will be an extra sweet one this year.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by RoseofWight

Unfortunately, it seems it's a glitch in the system.

The tally ended up being 82, not zero for reported deaths.

Originally Posted by Macblaze

—https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Too bad because i was sure heartened by it for a moment.

Dipping to double digits is still worthy of celebration given it hasn’t occurred for nearly five months. Certainly worthy of one jump up and down if not three .

Today should be another day with low figures reported, so that may bring the daily average for the past week below 200.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Thanks. Yes, I could read the thread.
Bugger .

Still, the overall numbers are extremely low. The daily deaths averaged over a week with a positive COVID-19 test within 28 days (death not necessarily related to COVID-19) in the UK is currently around 200 and still dropping quickly. Given the way these are counted I doubt it will actually be zero for a long time to come, well past the time the crisis is over.

Each death is an awful loss, but the numbers need to be put into perspective. During the couple of years prior to this pandemic, daily deaths in the UK averaged around 1400-1500, a lot of these preventable.

Numbers averaging around 200 a day with a recent COVID-19 positive test after a recent peak of around 1200 are still something to be optimistic about, particularly since some of these occurred some time before being reported. This is significant when numbers are dropping so sharply.

SW (“glass half full”) L

The glass is a lot more than half full.







The UK is doing EXTREMELY WELL. The daily case rate is down to 89 per million, one of the lowest rates in Europe. That is down from almost 900 at the peak -- 10x less. The daily death rate is down to 3.48 per million, which is already low, and since deaths trail daily cases by a couple of weeks, we would see death rates continue to fall even without the effect of vaccination.


But look here:





The UK has done SPECTACULARLY well with vaccination, the best of any large country in the world by far. 33 doses administered per 100 people -- it means that practically all vulnerable people have already received at least one dose, nearly 4x (!) the European average.



What this adds up to is the pandemic is basically over in the UK, and will be not basically but really over before summer. The UK has been terribly hard hit, but is the first European country to come out the other end of this nightmare into a post-pandemic world.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Dinna fash. Rangers fans are a tough bunch .

They have their own treatment plan based on deep fried Mars Bars in a light crispy batter and cans of Tennents larger.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The glass is a lot more than half full.

Attachment 234139
Attachment 234140

The UK is doing EXTREMELY WELL. The daily case rate is down to 89 per million, one of the lowest rates in Europe. That is down from almost 900 at the peak -- 10x less. The daily death rate is down to 3.48 per million, which is already low, and since deaths trail daily cases by a couple of weeks, we would see death rates continue to fall even without the effect of vaccination.

But look here:
Attachment 234141

The UK has done SPECTACULARLY well with vaccination, the best of any large country in the world by far. 33 doses administered per 100 people -- it means that practically all vulnerable people have already received at least one dose, nearly 4x (!) the European average.

What this adds up to is the pandemic is basically over in the UK, and will be not basically but really over before summer. The UK has been terribly hard hit, but is the first European country to come out the other end of this nightmare into a post-pandemic world.

Yes, the UK has done phenomenally well. I know the EU is still struggling to substantially increase the number of doses administered, but watching the death rate drop so dramatically following vaccination of the most vulnerable groups in the UK must be hugely encouraging for everyone. Dockhead, thanks for your earlier thoughts on why Latvia is lagging so much. Hopefully they will get their ducks in a row shortly.

Vaccinations have actually just hit 300+ million doses worldwide:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/c...-distribution/

These are the figures for the percentage of the population that has received at least one dose. The number in brackets was the % when the worldwide number of vaccinations reached 200+ million on the 21st of February:

Scotland 32.2% (25.2%)
Denmark 9.1% (5.2%)
Finland 8.7% (5.0%)
Estonia 7.7% (4.6%)
Lithuania 7.5% (4.3%)
Norway 7.0% (5.2%)
Sweden 5.8% (3.9%)
Latvia 3.3% (1.4%)

EU average: 6.0% (3.7%)

In comparison:

Israel 54.6% (47%)

U.K. 33.3% (25.8%)

U.S. 17.7% (12.9%)

In the UK the NHS has started the second last group in Phase 1, the 55-60 year olds.
The graphs for new cases and deaths are looking super impressive:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

From my perspective the crisis is over in the UK. At this stage I am not sure what they are trying to achieve continuing with stay-at-home lockdown for several more weeks. The nation is suffering both economically and mentally/socially.
Are they aiming to reduce the spread so more virulent mutations are less likely? (Doesn’t seem reasonable to me given this is still occurring worldwide)
Or trying to save every life possible? (Economically seems crazy, this approach is not taken with every other death)
Or concerned about “long COVID”?

I have been very patient, but at this point I guess I am just itching to be let off the boat for more than just exercise and grocery shopping, so I am conscious my views may be tainted by this.

SWL

[Sos]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Y
From my perspective the crisis is over in the UK. At this stage I am not sure what they are trying to achieve continuing with stay-at-home lockdown for several more weeks. The nation is suffering both economically and mentally/socially.
Are they aiming to reduce the spread so more virulent mutations are less likely? (Doesn’t seem reasonable to me given this is still occurring worldwide)
Or trying to save every life possible? (Economically seems crazy, this approach is not taken with every other death)
Or concerned about “long COVID”?

I have been very patient, but at this point I guess I am just itching to be let off the boat for more than just exercise and grocery shopping, so I am conscious my views may be tainted by this.

SWL

They have said that they are going to wait a few weeks after each relaxation, the first being schools going back, to see what effect it has before changing the lock down. That's Englands stance, not sure about Scotland!

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Sos

They have said that they are going to wait a few weeks after each relaxation, the first being schools going back, to see what effect it has before changing the lock down. That's Englands stance, not sure about Scotland!

I think cases will undoubtedly increase, as they will when the lockdown eases in a few weeks. What numbers will be deemed acceptable? What is the goal and why? The pandemic is not just a UK issue, it is a global one.

Initially the lockdown was to protect the vulnerable and not overwhelm the hospital system. But now?

They are conducting close to a million people a day here on some days. The positive rate is well under 1%. It was close to 50% during the first lockdown last spring. What is the new benchmark for an “acceptable” number of cases?

I have not read an inkling of the basic principles underlying the exit strategy. It is not just best to “do the safe thing”. These extensive and repeated lockdowns are taking their toll on many fronts.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. .. I have not read an inkling of the basic principles underlying the exit strategy. It is not just best to “do the safe thing”. These extensive and repeated lockdowns are taking their toll on many fronts.

Indeed. The World Health Organization implores countries to consider the collateral damage of strict pandemic measures:

“Large scale physical distancing measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID‑19 transmission by limiting contact between people. However, these measures can have a profound negative impact on individuals, communities, and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop. Such measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including people in poverty, migrants, internally displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under resourced settings, and depend on daily labour for subsistence. WHO recognizes that at certain points, some countries have had no choice but to issue stay-at-home orders and other measures, to buy time.”

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...s-and-covid-19

I don't know why the restrictions aren't coming off in the UK. Every week is another quantum of severe damage to society, to people, to the economy.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I don't know why the restrictions aren't coming off in the UK. Every week is another quantum of severe damage to society, to people, to the economy.

True many businesses were hoping for a complete lifting of restrictions for the Easter holiday to allow camping, B&B and hotels to open fully etc.

I can only think the Government know that the country won't stand for a 3rd long lockdown and can't afford it either, so this one has to work. If that means a few extra weeks well perhaps it has to be.

I think the UK Government borrowing to date is £335bn. Won't be any pay rises for public servants for years now and even the doctors and nurses only got offered 1%.

Still in 2.5 months they have managed 1/3rd of the population of the UK.

Pete

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed. The World Health Organization implores countries to consider the collateral damage of strict pandemic measures:

“Large scale physical distancing measures and movement restrictions, often referred to as ‘lockdowns’, can slow COVID‑19 transmission by limiting contact between people. However, these measures can have a profound negative impact on individuals, communities, and societies by bringing social and economic life to a near stop. Such measures disproportionately affect disadvantaged groups, including people in poverty, migrants, internally displaced people and refugees, who most often live in overcrowded and under resourced settings, and depend on daily labour for subsistence. WHO recognizes that at certain points, some countries have had no choice but to issue stay-at-home orders and other measures, to buy time.”

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...s-and-covid-19

I don't know why the restrictions aren't coming off in the UK. Every week is another quantum of severe damage to society, to people, to the economy.

The problem is the government is in a Lose, Lose position..
Last summer they had a go at opening up to help the hospitality sector with subsidised meals 3 times a week.. the R rate climbed and they got serious flack for it.. then again at Christmas.
Understandably this time Boris is taking no chances and wants this to be an end to restrictions..
No matter what he does folk will scream.. To Fast.. or.. To Slow..
And now I will hear why he got it wrong before.. The Captain Hindsights.. .

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I don't know why the restrictions aren't coming off in the UK. Every week is another quantum of severe damage to society, to people, to the economy.

Me either. Each additional week impacts even further.

Some of the long term consequences are hard to assess so they tend not to be factored in. Anxiety, stress, depression, the lack of human touch and personal interaction. Humans are very much social beings. We are designed to thrive in communities. There are currently around 6 million people in the UK on antidepressants. What effect are these lockdowns having on this vulnerable group?

The lockdowns have not been a harsh but short solution to the problem. They have been harsh and long and widespread across the nation. Shy of a week or two, we have spent half the entire past year under strict “stay-at-home” conditions in Scotland.

The situation here has improved dramatically, not just with the death rate, but because the most vulnerable (21% of the population) have now been vaccinated and more than three weeks has passed since their first doses were administered, which according to all the data coming in is sufficient time for a high level of protection against serious illness to kick in.

Nothing I have read indicates that there is a high risk that hospitalisations and deaths will rise substantially again if the restrictions are eased. The key difference to other lockdowns where resurgence was an unknown quantity is that the vulnerable have now been massively protected.

I don’t think a nation should be locked down “just in case” with little regard for consequences. Lives are precious, but we don’t impose draconian measures to solve or reduce other health problems.

PS Reported deaths in the UK with a positive COVID-19 test result in the prior 28 days were just 65 today (84 yesterday). This includes some cases from days or even weeks ago. This is of special significance when the rate is dropping as rapidly as it still is. The figures tend to be lowest on these two days of the week, but numbers even for these two days are still trending down substantially.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . I don’t think a nation should be locked down “just in case” with little regard for consequences. Lives are precious, but we don’t impose draconian measures to solve or reduce other health problems...

It's very bad policy indeed, which does not consider collateral damage of the policy in question before adopting it.


The World Health Organization in the quote I posted above pretty much says it all. Doesn't look like the UK are following WHO advice.