Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by dannc

I wonder if the long term impact of the pandemic will be the political fallout from the EuroCrats handling of the crisis.

The EU's triggering of Article 16 seemed very heavy handed and without consideration of the consequences in Northern Ireland. The latent ember of The Troubles has certainly been fed and things are slowly heating up in NI. If that ember is not cooled down and reburied, we might be seeing the start of The Troubles V2.0.

The EU's attack on AZ, the company AND the vaccine, just seems nothing short of desperate and bone headed. Their attack on AZ and questioning the safety of the vaccine is surely not helping people who have concerns about the vaccine's safety when the government is saying it safe, not it's not, yes it is.

With Brexit and the loss of the UK's contribution to the EU, the remaining countries are going to have to increase taxes paid to the EU and/or cut services. I really don't see the EU cutting services, so will the Frugal Four and Germany want to continue to fund the EU at higher rate, especially given the EU's performance during the pandemic? Can the EU legally issue bonds? Will the German court case succeed, and if so, what will be the ramifications for an EU pandemic recovery AND the EU?

Later,
Dan

Dan...
Its a political game for them, they don't give a $h1t about the population or the Belfast agreement.
Its all about deflection and saving face.. Slovakia stepped outside and bought a load of Sputnik V for the citizens yet the Prime Minister is being forced to step down by the pro EU cabal and it looks like once again vaccinations are on hold for Joe Public..
Its a scandal.

[fxykty]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Today's anti viral supper..
Home made Chilli con Carne.. Not canned, frozen or packet mix..

Fresh garlic.. Benifits include lowers blood pressure and cholesterol, an anti-inflammatory effect, a reduced risk of cancer, and a stronger immune system.
Fresh onions.. Benefits include detoxing system, strengthens respiratory system and boosts immune system.
Ground Cumin seed.. Benifits include boosts immune system, detox, anti inflammation and combats free radicals.
Paprika.. Benifits include rich in antioxidants, Vitamin A.
Tumeric.. Benefits include anti inflammatory and antioxidants.
Red Chilli... Benifits include rich in Potassium, Vitamin C, aids respiratory pathways, anti biotic properties.
Tomato puree.. Benefits include Iron, Potassium and B vitamins.
Fresh Corriander garnish rich in Vitamin C, Vitamin K and protein, calcium, phosphorous, potassium, thiamin, niacin and carotene.
Basmati Rice.. Benifits are its loaded with vitamins and minerals.. and filling.
Mango and Ginger Chutney on the side.

Don’t chillis (the dish) usually have beans rather than rice? Even so, looks yummy. Do you really care about the supposed benefits of the various ingredients?

[El Pinguino]

Well, I'm all right Jack!

Had my first AZ shot today.....

Meanwhile Slomo promised 2 mill vaccinated by the end of March.... One day to go and only 500,000 done..... while we have another outbreak in Queensland involving unvaccinated doctors and nurses....

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by fxykty

Don’t chillis (the dish) usually have beans rather than rice? Even so, looks yummy. Do you really care about the supposed benefits of the various ingredients?

If you look closely there are red kidney beans in the Chilli..
The rice is to bulk it up.. for me that bowl is 3 servings with rice.. and Basmati rice is yummy.
As for caring.. of course I do else I'd just buy a can or frozen pack.. flavour, texture and knowing what's in it is important.

[laird]

Looks like the UK is running into supply problems , last year we worked our butts off to get extra places ready to become vacination centers , they are temporary closing at least one of them due to lack of vaccine , they spent about 1.5 million getting the place ready , last week some of our colleques were told that their second pfizer shot was prosponed , the center that is being closed issues AZ vaccine , pox on the EU polliticians i say

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Well, I'm all right Jack!

Had my first AZ shot today.....

Meanwhile Slomo promised 2 mill vaccinated by the end of March.... One day to go and only 500,000 done..... while we have another outbreak in Queensland involving unvaccinated doctors and nurses....

Congratulations!! [emoji322]

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by laird

Looks like the UK is running into supply problems , last year we worked our butts off to get extra places ready to become vacination centers , they are temporary closing at least one of them due to lack of vaccine , they spent about 1.5 million getting the place ready , last week some of our colleques were told that their second pfizer shot was prosponed , the center that is being closed issues AZ vaccine , pox on the EU polliticians i say

Like other places, the UK has spurts and bobbles in the vaccine program, but altogether is doing by far the best of any large country, with over 50 shots administered per 100 people. Brilliant performance!!







It is right and good that second Pfizer doses are being delayed, as a single Pfizer dose is highly efficacious by itself. The second dose is kind of gilding the lily and it is not a good decision to make people wait to get their first doses, in order to administer second doses to people who've already had one. So in my book, the UK is doing brilliantly, 10 days ahead of the U.S., despite the U.S. having the most market power and greatest control over supplies.


Europe is lagging, and the fiasco with the Astra Zeneca vaccine is not helping -- the most absurdly stupid misapplication of the precautionary principle I think I ever saw. Nevertheless, I think most of Europe (except perhaps poor Latvia) seem poised to have enough of the population vaccinated by the end of summer, to prevent a fall wave from happening. If only we will have another quiet summer with the virus in recession, like last year, should be all good in Europe too.

[Dockhead]

And back to the original question -- what kind of cruising can we do in the Baltic this summer?

For a long time I was sure that it would be fine -- even better than last summer which was pretty much normal, at least after late June.

Now I'm less certain. The light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer and closer, but we are still under the hardest restrictions we've had since the beginning of the pandemic. We don't have actual lockdown anywhere, but in most countries in Northern Europe, restaurants are closed for inside dining, and borders are shut tight with travel from outside the EU mostly prohibited and internal travel mostly subject to testing and quarantine.

There are some total bans on entry between some Baltic countries -- for example, through tomorrow Sweden bans any entry from Norway and from Denmark, apparently even including by pleasure vessel. At the moment I can't get to my boat in Denmark to do spring maintenance.

Finland continues to allow anyone to enter from another EU country by pleasure vessel without restriction.

April will be crucially important as different restrictions will either expire or be prlonged, and we will start to get an idea of the plan for lifting of restrictions.

Germany and Sweden worry me as cases are surging there, with Sweden over 500 daily cases per million and Germany about to pass through 200 daily cases, while the rest of the region is mostly seeing a decline of cases or at least a plateau at a low level. Although vaccination is going slowly in Europe, nevertheless a fairly large proportion of vulnerable people have been vaccinated in Northern Europe, so I would expect to see death rates falling pretty hard during April, which maybe will reduce some of the concern. Despite the surge of cases in Germany, the death rate there have fallen steadily and is now less than 2 per million, slightly less than Sweden, which has been under 2 per million for a few weeks and under 4 since mid-February (and cumulative deaths in Sweden are now below the European average notwithstanding all the doom and gloom forecast by some who were lambasting Swedish pandemic measures). Latvia and Lithuania are having death rates of less than 4, and so our whole region is doing very well, what concerns death rates, except only Estonia, in our region only Estonia, which has had a horrible outbreak, has a high death rate, presently approaching 9. But in Estonia vaccination is going quite well (compared to the rest of Europe at least) and daily case rates are finally falling, now below 950 from a peak of over 1200, so I guess there is hope there too.

So let's hope that borders will open to us in the next month or so and we can have normal cruising this summer -- it will be horrible and ironic if it is worse than 2020.


The effect of vaccination can be seen in the UK numbers, where after a horrendous outbreak in the fall and early winter, with death rates over 18 (!) per million, the death rate is now below 1, which is basically just noise. Once you get most people over 65 vaccinated, COVID basically doesn't kill anyone in any significant numbers. We are a couple months behind the UK, but should be there before summer in the rest of Northern Europe, God willing.

[laird]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

And back to the original question -- what kind of cruising can we do in the Baltic this summer?

For a long time I was sure that it would be fine -- even better than last summer which was pretty much normal, at least after late June.

Now I'm less certain. The light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer and closer, but we are still under the hardest restrictions we've had since the beginning of the pandemic. We don't have actual lockdown anywhere, but in most countries in Northern Europe, restaurants are closed for inside dining, and borders are shut tight with travel from outside the EU mostly prohibited and internal travel mostly subject to testing and quarantine.

There are some total bans on entry between some Baltic countries -- for example, through tomorrow Sweden bans any entry from Norway and from Denmark, apparently even including by pleasure vessel. At the moment I can't get to my boat in Denmark to do spring maintenance.

Finland continues to allow anyone to enter from another EU country by pleasure vessel without restriction.

April will be crucially important as different restrictions will either expire or be prlonged, and we will start to get an idea of the plan for lifting of restrictions.

Germany and Sweden worry me as cases are surging there, with Sweden over 500 daily cases per million and Germany about to pass through 200 daily cases, while the rest of the region is mostly seeing a decline of cases or at least a plateau at a low level. Although vaccination is going slowly in Europe, nevertheless a fairly large proportion of vulnerable people have been vaccinated in Northern Europe, so I would expect to see death rates falling pretty hard during April, which maybe will reduce some of the concern. Despite the surge of cases in Germany, the death rate there have fallen steadily and is now less than 2 per million, slightly less than Sweden, which has been under 2 per million for a few weeks and under 4 since mid-February (and cumulative deaths in Sweden are now below the European average notwithstanding all the doom and gloom forecast by some who were lambasting Swedish pandemic measures). Latvia and Lithuania are having death rates of less than 4, and so our whole region is doing very well, what concerns death rates, except only Estonia, in our region only Estonia, which has had a horrible outbreak, has a high death rate, presently approaching 9. But in Estonia vaccination is going quite well (compared to the rest of Europe at least) and daily case rates are finally falling, now below 950 from a peak of over 1200, so I guess there is hope there too.

So let's hope that borders will open to us in the next month or so and we can have normal cruising this summer -- it will be horrible and ironic if it is worse than 2020.

At the moment it's still very much a guessing game ,if the numbers flair up very badly in the Eu countries I can see a situation where it will negate all the hard work done here in the UK and prevent UK citizens from travelling there with ease

I'd like to fly out to the Philippines where I own a condo , even if it was just to check it out , it's been over a year since I was there

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

And back to the original question -- what kind of cruising can we do in the Baltic this summer?


For a long time I was sure that it would be fine -- even better than last summer which was pretty much normal, at least after late June.


Now I'm less certain. The light at the end of the tunnel is getting closer and closer, but we are still under the hardest restrictions we've had since the beginning of the pandemic. We don't have actual lockdown anywhere, but in most countries in Northern Europe, restaurants are closed for inside dining, and borders are shut tight with travel from outside the EU mostly prohibited and internal travel mostly subject to testing and quarantine.


There are some total bans on entry between some Baltic countries -- for example, through tomorrow Sweden bans any entry from Norway and from Denmark, apparently even including by pleasure vessel. At the moment I can't get to my boat in Denmark to do spring maintenance.



Finland continues to allow anyone to enter from another EU country by pleasure vessel without restriction.


April will be crucially important as different restrictions will either expire or be prlonged, and we will start to get an idea of the plan for lifting of restrictions.


Germany and Sweden worry me as cases are surging there, with Sweden over 500 daily cases per million, while the rest of the region is mostly seeing a decline of cases or at least a plateau at a low level. Although vaccination is going slowly in Europe, nevertheless a fairly large proportion of vulnerable people have been vaccinated in Northern Europe, so I would expect to see death rates falling pretty hard during April, which maybe will reduce some of the concern. Despite the surge of cases in Germany, the death rate there have fallen steadily and is now less than 2 per million, lightly less than Sweden. Latvia and Lithuania are less than 4, and so in our region only Estonia, which has had a horrible outbreak, has a high death rate, presently approaching 9. But vaccination is going quite well in Estonia (compared to the rest of Europe at least) and daily case rates are finally falling, now below 1000, so I guess there is hope there too.



So let's hope that borders will open to us in the next month or so and we can have normal cruising this summer -- it will be horrible and ironic if it is worse than 2020.

Hey Dockhead,

yes, from the get-go, i noted how you were optimistic (which is a reflection of a healthy mind, so please take this as a compliment). i was less optimistic (you could tell surely), and, actually (if this helps any), things are not yet as bad as i had imagined... as, i imagined this virus would get way out in front of us.

you surely know how i feel about it all:
if big pharma would take off their ties and suits and put on their superman outfits before the variants get way out in front of us (i.e., open source the formula as opposed to holding onto intellectual property rights - across the board), i'd really appreciate it. outrageous, maybe; drastic, yes, but, in this case, i would also mandate the everyone who can physically be vaccinated step up to the plate for the common good.

yes, this crisis may well require social responsibility across the board.
i'm not sure if humanity is ready to bargain with these kinds of chips, but i see the moment coming at us like a high speed train.

maybe my viewpoint is completely distorted from where i am here in my lockdown space, but being in the heart of it here, waiting for those vaccine shipments to come, and not knowing when and if the eu can get in front of this... all this tells me, it can get as bad as i had imagined early on.

let's hope not.

and i do hope you can get out to your boat!

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

... if big pharma would take off their ties and suits and put on their superman outfits before the variants get way out in front of us (i.e., open source the formula as opposed to holding onto intellectual property rights - across the board), i'd really appreciate it...

FWIW:
Scientists have determined the “recipes” for two Covid-19 vaccines, using leftovers, in vials bound for the trash, and published the mRNA sequences on Github, the online repository for software code.

“Assemblies-of-putative-SARS-CoV2-spike-encoding-mRNA-sequences-for-vaccines-BNT-162b2-and-mRNA-1273"
➥ https://github.com/NAalytics/Assembl...-1273.docx.pdf

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

Hey Dockhead,

yes, from the get-go, i noted how you were optimistic (which is a reflection of a healthy mind, so please take this as a compliment). i was less optimistic (you could tell surely), and, actually (if this helps any), things are not yet as bad as i had imagined... as, i imagined this virus would get way out in front of us.

you surely know how i feel about it all:
if big pharma would take off their ties and suits and put on their superman outfits before the variants get way out in front of us (i.e., open source the formula as opposed to holding onto intellectual property rights - across the board), i'd really appreciate it. outrageous, maybe; drastic, yes, but, in this case, i would also mandate the everyone who can physically be vaccinated step up to the plate for the common good.

yes, this crisis may well require social responsibility across the board.
i'm not sure if humanity is ready to bargain with these kinds of chips, but i see the moment coming at us like a high speed train.

maybe my viewpoint is completely distorted from where i am here in my lockdown space, but being in the heart of it here, waiting for those vaccine shipments to come, and not knowing when and if the eu can get in front of this... all this tells me, it can get as bad as i had imagined early on.

let's hope not.

and i do hope you can get out to your boat!

Well, I don't begrudge the pharma companies their ip rights. AFAIK, they've used them responsibly and have not done any price-gouging. For saving mankind from this horror, surely they deserve a reasonable profit? It's reinvested profits from previous successes which built the capabilities which have delivered this miracle.

It's not the pharma companies' fault that Europe failed to work out the supply chain.

If you don't want to wait in France, why don't you escape to the States and do it there? From Monday Florida and a number of other states will vaccinate anyone over 16. Nice break from lockdown, too. I'm sitting in a restaurant (remember those?) as I write this, never so happy to be in the U. S. as now. I can recommend it.

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, I don't begrudge the pharma companies their ip rights. AFAIK, they've used them responsibly and have not done any price-gouging. For saving mankind from this horror, surely they deserve a reasonable profit? It's reinvested profits from previous successes which built the capabilities which have delivered this miracle.

It's not the pharma companies' fault that Europe failed to work out the supply chain.

If you don't want to wait in France, why don't you escape to the States and do it there? From Monday Florida and a number of other states will vaccinate anyone over 16. Nice break from lockdown, too. I'm sitting in a restaurant (remember those?) as I write this, never so happy to be in the U. S. as now. I can recommend it.

hey, i see and respect your point about maintaining a certain regard for merit and those rewards that follow (as this drives future progress), however (and far from wondering to where i can escape personally), i'm looking at the full-blown disaster in Brazil (how many deaths per hour now?). my deep feeling is that it doesn't have to be this way.

let's ponder the reasons why the UK is no longer getting stocks of Pfizer, and the french will get a huge shipload in mid-April, just in time to save the day (hopefully). look at how india had to address the situation there and keep vaccines... it is not difficult to notice how things are getting red hot in different places and then how the vaccines are being shuffled and bargained for left and right so to avoid major disaster. from my perspective, we are far from being out of crisis mode.

each and every day, each of us stands witness to how certain individuals, certain wealthy countries are and will succeed in making life safe while other individuals and countries suffer and despair (whether from the psychological, or the physical effects of the virus, of lockdown, of the economic fall-out)... and yet, whether we get the jab personally or not, the entire globe continues to run the risk of harbouring a very, very mean variant.

let's hope that the globe gets the virus under control. i do, really. how i want to sail!!!!!

but what i also see is how the risks we are running are growing in unpredictable, "unprecedented" ways and would not if big pharma was asked to be as socially responsible as the rest of us.



wolfie

[Exile]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

hey, i see and respect your point about maintaining a certain regard for merit and those rewards that follow (as this drives future progress), however (and far from wondering to where i can escape personally), i'm looking at the full-blown disaster in Brazil (how many deaths per hour now?). my deep feeling is that it doesn't have to be this way.

let's ponder the reasons why the UK is no longer getting stocks of Pfizer, and the french will get a huge shipload in mid-April, just in time to save the day (hopefully). look at how india had to address the situation there and keep vaccines... it is not difficult to notice how things are getting red hot in different places and then how the vaccines are being shuffled and bargained for left and right so to avoid major disaster. from my perspective, we are far from being out of crisis mode.

each and every day, each of us stands witness to how certain individuals, certain wealthy countries are and will succeed in making life safe while other individuals and countries suffer and despair (whether from the psychological, or the physical effects of the virus, of lockdown, of the economic fall-out)... and yet, whether we get the jab personally or not, the entire globe continues to run the risk of harbouring a very, very mean variant.

let's hope that the globe gets the virus under control. i do, really. how i want to sail!!!!!

but what i also see is how the risks we are running are growing in unpredictable, "unprecedented" ways and would not if big pharma was asked to be as socially responsible as the rest of us.



wolfie

I'm not sure what exactly accounts for the disparities we're seeing in distribution in different parts of the world, perhaps most notably the rather stark contrast btwn the UK and the EU. I also share your views in the most general sense that it probably didn't have to be this way. What I don't understand, however, is why you're blaming the pharma cos. who have been producing an extraordinary amount of vaccine that will eventually have to be sufficient to serve the population of the entire planet. Not that "Big Pharma" doesn't deserve criticism it's received for some of its practices, but I'm not aware of such criticism when it comes to their response to Covid vaccine production. Quite the contrary. It's less about "social responsibility" and more about the available materials, equipment, labor and logistics that all go into producing a product for global distribution. Afaik, this involves private industry trying to fulfill contracts with public govt entities, so to the extent blame should be assigned for the disparities, what are the grounds for assigning it to the pharma cos at the mfg. level?

I could certainly not be sufficiently informed or perhaps misinformed, but if not this appears to be another case of scapegoating an industry that, like it or not, the entire world is dependent upon for its potential future health and well-being. We see this all too often these days with other essential industries as well, and I think it's counterproductive in the absence of specific, credible, and therefore justified criticism. Is there price gouging going on? Have pharma cos. been unfairly prioritizing the fulfillment of contracts for certain countries or regions based on price/profits rather than legitimate and necessary prioritization? Or is it more likely that the disparities we're seeing are the result of the huge logistics required for proper distribution after the vaccines are produced and delivered, with either incompetence, corruption (or both) occurring at the distribution level?

Personally, I'm hesitant to assign blame to any entity without more information.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

hey, i see and respect your point about maintaining a certain regard for merit and those rewards that follow (as this drives future progress), however (and far from wondering to where i can escape personally), i'm looking at the full-blown disaster in Brazil (how many deaths per hour now?). my deep feeling is that it doesn't have to be this way.

let's ponder the reasons why the UK is no longer getting stocks of Pfizer, and the french will get a huge shipload in mid-April, just in time to save the day (hopefully). look at how india had to address the situation there and keep vaccines... it is not difficult to notice how things are getting red hot in different places and then how the vaccines are being shuffled and bargained for left and right so to avoid major disaster. from my perspective, we are far from being out of crisis mode.

each and every day, each of us stands witness to how certain individuals, certain wealthy countries are and will succeed in making life safe while other individuals and countries suffer and despair (whether from the psychological, or the physical effects of the virus, of lockdown, of the economic fall-out)... and yet, whether we get the jab personally or not, the entire globe continues to run the risk of harbouring a very, very mean variant.

let's hope that the globe gets the virus under control. i do, really. how i want to sail!!!!!

but what i also see is how the risks we are running are growing in unpredictable, "unprecedented" ways and would not if big pharma was asked to be as socially responsible as the rest of us.

wolfie

You have reached a conclusion that the pharma companies could be more "socially responsible", but don't, and that as a result, is putting the world in danger.

But where do you get that? What could they have done differently?

I think it's fairly natural that wealthy countries get vaccinated first -- being wealthy, they have more resources. It is the resources of wealthy countries which produced the vaccines in the first place -- naturally having been the ones to invest in it, they expect to be first in line. This is also rational from the point of view of the world economy -- the impact of the pandemic on wealthy economies does disproportionate harm to the world economy, and this is harmful to poor countries, too.

Another very serious issue is logistics and distribution. Wealthy countries have this capability; poor countries do not. So even if we were pushing out vaccines to poor countries at the same rate as we are to wealthy countries, there is no way that these vaccines would be getting distributed and administered at anything like the rate at which this is happening in wealthy countries, especially UK and US, and especially not the messenger-RNA vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna) which were the first to be approved and which require transportation at extreme temperatures, far beyond the capabilities of most poor countries. So a given quantum of vaccines has a much greater effect in the first world, than it would have in the third world, especially in the early stages

So I don't see anything bad, or at least anything unnatural, about any of this. The huge resources thrown into the problem by wealthy countries (plus Russia, India and China) are in fact leading to a huge rampup of production which should make it possible to crush the pandemic worldwide pretty soon -- provided countries can work out logistics and dsitribution of vaccines once they get them. I doubt any of this could be done faster under some different method or approach. It will take longer in the third world but it would take longer no matter what. Even India, the world's leading manufacturing country for vaccines, which will produce 3.5 billion doses of different covid vaxxes this year, does not have the logistics capability to vaccine more than 22% of its population a year -- see: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/15/covi...-vaccines.html. The limiting factor is not vaccine supply, it is distribution, and I guess this will be true everywhere in poor countries.

Nor would just waiving IP rights do anything useful. These vaccines are not somethign you can just cook up in a kitchen if only you had the recipe. The production is an extremely complex, technological process which requires a lot more than just the formula -- there is an immense amount of know-how and process involved. It looks to me that those companies who do actually have the capability of such high tech manufacturing, are in fact getting licenses and plus support from the pharma countries, to produce different covid vaccines under license. This is certainly true in India, where the world's largest vaccine manufacturing company, the Serum Institute of India (a family-owned private company), is already producing huge quantities of Astra-Zeneca under license as well as some self-developed vaccines, 100 million doses per month already in April. This story sounds like a model of international cooperation; see: https://www.tpr.org/2021-03-17/india...ion-is-growing.

We also have programs like Covax, which has raised more than $6 billion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVAX.

I don't really see how this could have been done any better. We won't be able to finally evaluate international cooperation -- and the "social responsibility" of the pharma companies -- until this is all over, but to my eyes it looks like the world has come together and is doing a really good job with this. We shall see, of course.