Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . Unfortunately, I don’t share your optimism about the UK being a yellow country anytime soon. More and more countries are closing borders to the UK (eg France yesterday) unless someone has a “worthy purpose” or “compelling reason” to travel. The variant first detected in India is now responsible for about 80% of cases here and spreading very quickly. Good protection from this variant apparently does not occur until several weeks after the second dose of vaccine, and most of Europe is still a fair way off achieving that so they are desperately trying to slow the spread of this variant.

As for restrictions easing for the “fully vaccinated”, if countries decided to follow Denmark’s lead and have their own definitions of who they consider to be fully vaccinated, then actual status may be irrelevant when it comes to restrictions being eased.

Yes, if the UK is declared an "Area of Variant Concern", then all bets are off. In that case, the UK might as well be Chernobyl in 1989. But if that doesn't happen, the infection rate is already below the threshhold for a yellow country. Let's hope. I was hoping to go to London this summer (and move my yacht back to Cowes in September); it will really suck if the UK is Chernobylized

[boatman61]

6 days of rising case's but first day of zero Covid deaths in UK..

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, if the UK is declared an "Area of Variant Concern", then all bets are off. In that case, the UK might as well be Chernobyl in 1989. But if that doesn't happen, the infection rate is already below the threshhold for a yellow country. Let's hope. I was hoping to go to London this summer (and move my yacht back to Cowes in September); it will really suck if the UK is Chernobylized

The Indian variant is allready spread across the borders. In Finland at least two reasent "outbreaks" were precisely that and I reckon at least one in Norway. All of them AFAIK now under control but it's here..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

The Indian variant is allready spread across the borders. In Finland at least two reasent "outbreaks" were precisely that and I reckon at least one in Norway. All of them AFAIK now under control but it's here..

That's bad news


The good news is that the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against the Indian variant. https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...e-finland.html

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

That's bad news
The good news is that the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against the Indian variant. https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...e-finland.html

From Dockhead's link:
"... The experiences of the hospital district align with research findings on the efficacy of the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine against the variant first discovered in India. Public Health England in May reported the Pfizer-Biontech and Astra Zeneca vaccines both have a roughly 33.5-per-cent efficacy against the variant three weeks after the first injection, compared to about 50 per cent against the variant first found in the UK. Two weeks after the second dose, the efficacy against the Indian variant rose to 88 per cent for Pfizer-Biontech and to 60 per cent for Astra Zeneca..."

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The good news is that the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against the Indian variant. https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...e-finland.html

Yes, that is certainly good news.
However, this figure only applies two weeks+ after the second dose. It is only around 33% effective 3 weeks after the first injection.

The figures for full vaccination are still low in the EU, hence the concern.
In Finland, for example, only 8.8% of the population has received both doses. This is lower than even Latvia at 13.8%. Denmark & Lithuania are doing better at 21.6%, but this is still not high.

Although the new variant has undoubtedly spread all over Europe by now, I think countries are trying to slow transmission until a higher % of the population has maximum protection. That is why I don’t think UK’s status will change to yellow anytime soon.

PS I have just seen Gord beat me to it .

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Yes, that is certainly good news.
However, this figure only applies two weeks+ after the second dose. It is only around 33% effective 3 weeks after the first injection.

It may not be so bad after only one dose... see this article for explanation:

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/co...-covid-vaccine

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

It may not be so bad after only one dose... see this article for explanation:

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/co...-covid-vaccine

The above data was not for the strain first detected in India.
The figures I quoted were from a Public Health England’s recent study in the UK:
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/...india-variant/

Yes, the figures may not be as bad as presented as case numbers were low and therefore less reliable, but all indications seem to be that protection from hospitalisation is much less after 1 dose of vaccine for the Indian variant than other strains. Here’s hoping that is not the case, but at the moment we have little other information.

[Dockhead]

A parliamentary committee in Sweden has made conclusions criticizing certain aspects of the Swedish pandemic response:

https://www.thelocal.se/20210603/com...irus-pandemic/

Most of the criticism was bureaucratic in nature: lack of clarity on whose responsibility it is to purchase PPE; fumbles with testing; delays in passing the second law giving emergency powers to the government.

But the one really substantive criticism of the committee was that the mandatory limits on the size of gatherings imposed back in March, 2020, and which are still in effect, "constituted significant restrictions on people’s constitutionally protected rights and freedoms" such that the government should have asked Tegnell's department to continuously review whether the measures were "epidemiologically necessary" or not, rather than just leaving them in place.

[Montanan]

In the span of just five days last month, China gave out 100 million shots of its COVID-19 vaccines. After a slow start, China is now doing what virtually no other country in the world can: leveraging the power and all-encompassing reach of its one-party system and a maturing domestic vaccine industry to administer shots at a staggering pace. The rollout is far from perfect, including uneven distribution, but Chinese public health leaders now say they’re hoping to inoculate 80% of the population of 1.4 billion by the end of the year.

As of Wednesday, China had given out more than 704 million doses — with nearly half of those in May alone. China's total is roughly a third of the 1.9 billion shots distributed globally.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/slow-star...041422760.html

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

A parliamentary committee in Sweden has made conclusions criticizing certain aspects of the Swedish pandemic response:

https://www.thelocal.se/20210603/com...irus-pandemic/

Most of the criticism was bureaucratic in nature: lack of clarity on whose responsibility it is to purchase PPE; fumbles with testing; delays in passing the second law giving emergency powers to the government.

But the one really substantive criticism of the committee was that the mandatory limits on the size of gatherings imposed back in March, 2020, and which are still in effect, "constituted significant restrictions on people’s constitutionally protected rights and freedoms" such that the government should have asked Tegnell's department to continuously review whether the measures were "epidemiologically necessary" or not, rather than just leaving them in place.

I recall when I was working at Scios, a biotechnology company then located in Mountain View, California, in the 1980's when we were aiding the World Health Organization in developing a vaccine for Rinderpest, one of the WHO epidemiologists stated that public health officials and government leaders will be criticized for acting to aggressively in their controls at the start of a pandemic and will be criticized for acting to passively and slowly at the end of pandemic.

There are only two viruses that have been eliminated in the world, the first was Small Pox and the second was Rinderpest. Scios made no profit for their efforts in developing the Rinderpest vaccine, the WHO paid a few hundred thousand dollars to cover some of the cost for our R&D. The work was performed for the common good.

Please get vaccinated.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

In the span of just five days last month, China gave out 100 million shots of its COVID-19 vaccines. After a slow start, China is now doing what virtually no other country in the world can: leveraging the power and all-encompassing reach of its one-party system and a maturing domestic vaccine industry to administer shots at a staggering pace. The rollout is far from perfect, including uneven distribution, but Chinese public health leaders now say they’re hoping to inoculate 80% of the population of 1.4 billion by the end of the year.

As of Wednesday, China had given out more than 704 million doses — with nearly half of those in May alone. China's total is roughly a third of the 1.9 billion shots distributed globally.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/slow-star...041422760.html

That's good news. If for no other reason than because China's economy is now a linchpin of the world economy. And a bad uncontrolled outbreak or largescale lockdown in China could have very bad consequences for the rest of the world.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

I recall when I was working at Scios, a biotechnology company then located in Mountain View, California, in the 1980's when we were aiding the World Health Organization in developing a vaccine for Rinderpest, one of the WHO epidemiologists stated that public health officials and government leaders will be criticized for acting too aggressively in their controls at the start of a pandemic and will be criticized for acting to passively and slowly at the end of pandemic.

There are only two viruses that have been eliminated in the world, the first was Small Pox and the second was Rinderpest. Scios made no profit for their efforts in developing the Rinderpest vaccine, the WHO paid a few hundred thousand dollars to cover some of the cost for our R&D. The work was performed for the common good.

Please get vaccinated.

Sounds like the voice of wisdom.

I hope we have learned something from this pandemic.

Politically-driven overreaction with unsustainable pandemic measures can't be a good way to do it.

It seems to me that there are TWO reasonable approaches to pandemic measures, based on what we've experienced in the last year or so:

1. If you catch it early enough that such measures can substantially eradicate the virus, take very early and harsh but short-term measures, then live normally while isolating the country from new sources of infection.

2. Otherwise, if it's too late to substantially eradicate the virus, take measures which you can keep up for as long as necessary without excess destruction of the economy and of people's social and psychological health.

It seems to me that very few countries got it right. Unsustainable measures lead to a weak end game, on top of unnecessary collateral damage.

I had dinner last evening with some Danish and Swedish friends, all of whom have houses in different Southern European countries -- France, Italy, Spain, and one a child at university in Germany. The horrors they witnessed in all those places. How lucky we have been to be up here during this.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Montanan

I recall when I was working at Scios, a biotechnology company then located in Mountain View, California, in the 1980's when we were aiding the World Health Organization in developing a vaccine for Rinderpest, one of the WHO epidemiologists stated that public health officials and government leaders will be criticized for acting to aggressively in their controls at the start of a pandemic and will be criticized for acting to passively and slowly at the end of pandemic.

There are only two viruses that have been eliminated in the world, the first was Small Pox and the second was Rinderpest. Scios made no profit for their efforts in developing the Rinderpest vaccine, the WHO paid a few hundred thousand dollars to cover some of the cost for our R&D. The work was performed for the common good.

Please get vaccinated.

I've been criticizing the early measures too passive and slow. Besides that health officials downplayed the info coming from chinese. When the outbreak started in Wuhan about all western countries hurried or evecuated their citizens back home without any further thought about transporting the virus doing that. No quarantines what so ever I know of in this part of the world anyways. It took a good part of the year -20 of them to get their act together, and now it's pretty much in order. Of course there's allways things to improve but I think the play book is now in order.

[Dockhead]

We finally have some infection rate news from Sweden, where the systems were shut down for almost a week because of an attempted data breach.


https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...unker-snabbast


And great news -- infection rates in Sweden fell nearly by half just in the last week. The infection rate in Sweden is now less than in Denmark



Europe altogether has made tremendous progress over the last month. The dailyl infection rate is now only 72 per million, down from about 250 at the beginning of May. Summer is looking good. Now if they would just hurry up with recognizing vaccinated people.