Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed. I would even say it's clearly going in the right direction all over Europe.

The only thing that really worries me is the situation in the UK, where the pandemic really did look like being over, but has had stubbornley rising daily case rates all month, and is now actually over the European average. Still pretty low rate, but why does it keep rising?

Because of poor border controls and keeping airports reception open till long after flights from international hotspots should have been closed.. latest example the D (Indian) variant.

[Dockhead]

Denmark now officially open to vaccinated Americans:


https://news.yahoo.com/denmark-reope...175855113.html


Finland should be open by 15 June and is already fully open with no testing, quarantine, etc. to arrivals from other Nordic countries, or arrivals by pleasure boat from another EU country.



Sweden is fully open to other Nordic countries with no test or self-isolation, fully open to other EEA countries with only a test requirement. Sweden is quite closed to non-EEA countries (special rules however for UK). HOWEVER, the exemption from ALL restrictions apparently applies to anyone whatsoever arriving from another Nordic country. So if you got into another Nordic country (e.g. Denmark which accepts vaccinated Americans), it looks to me like you are free to go to Sweden.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed. I would even say it's clearly going in the right direction all over Europe.

The only thing that really worries me is the situation in the UK, where the pandemic really did look like being over, but has had stubbornley rising daily case rates all month, and is now actually over the European average. Still pretty low rate, but why does it keep rising?

Rules has been relaxed and many don't follow the rules that still exists. Stayed in a hotel over the weekend and I doubt even half had a mask on when moving around.

[Dockhead]

I just arrived in Finland from Denmark, and got a slightly rude surprise -- barely a week after the Nordic Bubble was formed, Denmark has been kicked out of it. So despite being vaccinated and despite coming from another Nordic country, I had to get tested upon arrival (making me late for a meeting) and am under recommended self-isolation until a second test 4 days later The Nordic Bubble is now only Finland, Sweden and Norway. Infection rate in Denmark (which isn't all that bad, but presently highest in the region) is considered to be just a little too high.



Two steps forward, one step back.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I just arrived in Finland from Denmark, and got a slightly rude surprise -- barely a week after the Nordic Bubble was formed, Denmark has been kicked out of it. So despite being vaccinated and despite coming from another Nordic country, I had to get tested upon arrival (making me late for a meeting) and am under recommended self-isolation until a second test 4 days later The Nordic Bubble is now only Finland, Sweden and Norway. Infection rate in Denmark (which isn't all that bad, but presently highest in the region) is considered to be just a little too high.



Two steps forward, one step back.

You know letkajenkka

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDbIYXEsdx0

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

You know letkajenkka

Ha, ha, yes. Just what we're going through.


Reportedly derived from the American "Bunny Hop", brought by exchange students in the 50's:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7rQVQNReAE

[Seaworthy Lass]

Report from Scotland:

Detected cases are rising sharply in the UK. The Delta variant is now responsible for around 75% of these (likely to be even higher as this figure lags 12 days). The majority are aged under 30.

Hospitalisations have risen slightly, but I have not found what % of these are not fully vaccinated. I don’t have a reference, but the impression I have had from media reports is that they are not as severely ill as those hospitalised last year.

61.2% of UK’s population have received at least one dose of vaccine.
43.2% have had two.

Deaths have been steady for a while at 8 per day averaged over 7 days. To put this in perspective the figure peaked at over 1200 in January. Also, the average number of deaths per day due to influenza has usually been around 60 in the UK in recent years.

The old relationship between cases and deaths seems to have been broken, but although I am confident this will persist, I don’t think we will really know for sure for another couple of weeks. Deaths are bound to rise a little, as there are still some vulnerable people that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Following the plan Boris laid out in February, England was to lift all its internal restrictions on the 21st of June, but this is now in doubt. A decision will be made this weekend.

More and more countries are closing borders to anyone from the UK unless travellers have a “worthy purpose” or are residents / citizens. I gave up keeping track of this when France followed suit. For now we are just concentrating on enjoying some wonderful cruising in Scotland.

Graphs from:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Report from Scotland:

Detected cases are rising sharply in the UK. The Delta variant is now responsible for around 75% of these (likely to be even higher as this figure lags 12 days). The majority are aged under 30.

Hospitalisations have risen slightly, but I have not found what % of these are not fully vaccinated. I don’t have a reference, but the impression I have had from media reports is that they are not as severely ill as those hospitalised last year.

61.2% of UK’s population have received at least one dose of vaccine.
43.2% have had two.

Deaths have been steady for a while at 8 per day averaged over 7 days. To put this in perspective the figure peaked at over 1200 in January. Also, the average number of deaths per day due to influenza has usually been around 60 in the UK in recent years.

The old relationship between cases and deaths seems to have been broken, but although I am confident this will persist, I don’t think we will really know for sure for another couple of weeks. Deaths are bound to rise a little, as there are still some vulnerable people that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Following the plan Boris laid out in February, England was to lift all its internal restrictions on the 21st of June, but this is now in doubt. A decision will be made this weekend.

More and more countries are closing borders to anyone from the UK unless travellers have a “worthy purpose” or are residents / citizens. I gave up keeping track of this when France followed suit. For now we are just concentrating on enjoying some wonderful cruising in Scotland.

Graphs from:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

Let's hope for the best. The death rates are very encouraging. Basically no one is dying in significant umbers anywhere here, except maybe Latvia, which is seeing a bit over 4 per million per day, but case numbers have fallen drastically, so that should come down as well.


Good news also on the vaccination front. The EU as a whole has reached the blistering rate of 0.84 doses per day per 100 people, and Denmark has actually exceeded 1. Germany, Sweden, Lithuania are over 0.9.



This is great, and Northern Europe is catching up. Cumulative doses per 100 people is over 60 everywhere in Northern Europe except Latvia, but even Latvia is approaching 50. Critical level of vaccination should be easily reached by the end of summer.



I travelled from Finland to Estonia to Latvia this week, and was delighted not to have encountered any border control at all. I had a fresh covid test with me for the Latvians but they didn't even stop me crossing the border. I hope this is a trend.

[laird]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Because of poor border controls and keeping airports reception open till long after flights from international hotspots should have been closed.. latest example the D (Indian) variant.

People from India were flying to Turkey ,staying there for 2 days and then flying on to London in order to Avoid the quarantine

I agree that the government has been too slow to close down borders

[laird]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

More and more countries are closing borders to anyone from the UK unless travellers have a “worthy purpose” or are residents / citizens. I gave up keeping track of this when France followed suit. For now we are just concentrating on enjoying some wonderful cruising in Scotland.

Graphs from:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inations-today

You fortunate lady ,to be cruising in one of the best places in the planet

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Good news also on the vaccination front. The EU as a whole has reached the blistering rate of 0.84 doses per day per 100 people, and Denmark has actually exceeded 1. Germany, Sweden, Lithuania are over 0.9.

This is great, and Northern Europe is catching up. Cumulative doses per 100 people is over 60 everywhere in Northern Europe except Latvia, but even Latvia is approaching 50. Critical level of vaccination should be easily reached by the end of summer.

The current daily vaccination rate in Europe is extremely good news. This is very much a race to get the groups most at risk of hospitalisation fully vaccinated.

Unfortunately, unlike the original virus and the Alpha variant, it seems full vaccination (including two+ weeks elapsing following the final vaccine) is needed to give the vulnerable reasonable protection from hospitalisation following infection with the Delta variant.

I think the proportion of Delta variant infections will shortly be close to 100% in the UK and I think other European countries are likely to eventually follow to some degree.

From Bloomberg’s data, the numbers fully vaccinated are still quite low, although 20+% that some countries have achieved should roughly cover those classified “highest priority” if they have been well targeted in the vaccination program. The 2 weeks required to get good benefits from the final vaccine would not have elapsed for all these yet:

Lithuania 26.5%
Denmark 24.8%
Estonia & Germany 23.9%
Norway 23.7%

EU 23%

Latvia 20.1%
Sweden 19.3%
Finland 12%

Compared to:
UK 43.2%
US 42.6%

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by laird

You fortunate lady ,to be cruising in one of the best places in the planet

I count myself very, very lucky. Nothing is taken for granted.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The current daily vaccination rate in Europe is extremely good news. This is very much a race to get the groups most at risk of hospitalisation fully vaccinated.

Unfortunately, unlike the original virus and the Alpha variant, it seems full vaccination (including two+ weeks elapsing following the final vaccine) is needed to give the vulnerable reasonable protection from hospitalisation following infection with the Delta variant.

I think the proportion of Delta variant infections will shortly be close to 100% in the UK and I think other European countries are likely to eventually follow to some degree.

From Bloomberg’s data, the numbers fully vaccinated are still quite low, although 20+% that some countries have achieved should roughly cover those classified “highest priority” if they have been well targeted in the vaccination program. The 2 weeks required to get good benefits from the final vaccine would not have elapsed for all these yet:

Lithuania 26.5%
Denmark 24.8%
Estonia & Germany 23.9%
Norway 23.7%

EU 23%

Latvia 20.1%
Sweden 19.3%
Finland 12%

Compared to:
UK 43.2%
US 42.6%

The "fully vaccinated" category lags in Europe because unlike in the UK and US, the decision was made (on the EU level) to stretch out the second dose, so that a larger number of people would get at least one dose sooner.

That decision was made on the basis of evidence that one dose provides a great deal of protection, but that was before the Delta variant. There have only been 71 cases of the Delta variant in Sweden so far (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2021-06-11/), but the health authorities are alarmed.

We shall see whether all this bites us in the posterior. We now have considerably relaxed measures in this part of the world including completely free travel between Sweden, Norway, and Finland with no testing or checks whatsoever.

But the good news is that with a very high daily rate of vaccination (which I think shows that supply problems are finally over), that accelerates second doses, too.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The "fully vaccinated" category lags in Europe because unlike in the UK and US, the decision was made (on the EU level) to stretch out the second dose, so that a larger number of people would get at least one dose sooner.

That decision was made on the basis of evidence that one dose provides a great deal of protection, but that was before the Delta variant. There have only been 71 cases of the Delta variant in Sweden so far (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2021-06-11/), but the health authorities are alarmed.

We shall see whether all this bites us in the posterior. We now have considerably relaxed measures in this part of the world including completely free travel between Sweden, Norway, and Finland with no testing or checks whatsoever.

But the good news is that with a very high daily rate of vaccination (which I think shows that supply problems are finally over), that accelerates second doses, too.

The decision to delay second doses was a good one given the high level of protection initially afforded by one dose.

The UK started this strategy way back in December before the data supporting this was published by AstraZeneca, delaying the second dose of the AZ vaccine from 4 weeks to 12 weeks. Late April this was altered to 8 weeks. It was a very fortunate decision given the characteristics of this new variant that is now dominating here. A much higher % of the population is now fully vaccinated as a result.

The rest of Europe is in a fortunate position as it can see how this new variant is behaving in the UK and be forewarned. I hope they take advantage of this knowledge.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

The decision to delay second doses was a good one given the high level of protection initially afforded by one dose.

The UK started this strategy way back in December before the data supporting this was published by AstraZeneca, delaying the second dose of the AZ vaccine from 4 weeks to 12 weeks. Late April this was altered to 8 weeks. It was a very fortunate decision given the characteristics of this new variant that is now dominating here. A much higher % of the population is now fully vaccinated as a result.

The rest of Europe is in a fortunate position as it can see how this new variant is behaving in the UK and be forewarned. I hope they take advantage of this knowledge.

Finland and Germany are approaching 50% of people with at least one dose in them; Denmark and Sweden around 40%. Inasmuch as the original strain and the UK strain are still dominant here, it might still make sense to be stretching out the second doses somewhat. Provided vulnerable people are fully vaxxed. You'd have to model it to really know.

Also, the idea that one dose is spectacularly ineffective against this strain, whereas two doses are fine -- sounds weird, and comes as far as I know from one, non-peer reviewed study. Maybe it's wrong?

I wouldn't want to be the health authority guy making these decisions right now.

As of today, Denmark is vaxxing nearly 1.1 people per 100 -- per day. And Sweden and Germany are over .9. Even Latvia (!) has gotten its act together and is vaxxing nearly .8 per day.

In other great vaccination news, the U.S. is donating a billion (!) doses to Covax. It's about time. The G7 should simply pony up and vaccinate the entire third world. It would cost comparative peanuts, would more than pay for itself, would stop further profileration of variants, and is right from an ethical point of view. The carnage will be terrible in some of those countries without decent hospitals. As the supply problems are more or less over in the developed world, surely we need to turn to this and with vigor. We should have done it earlier. As soon as we had vaxxed our own vulnerable and front line health care workers, we should have started helping poor countries to do theirs. Instead we waited until we had substantially vaccinated the whole population. I'm not sure this was a good decision.