Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[mglonnro]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Since saturday no tests taken in Kastrup. Boats seemed to come and go in Copenhagen harbour without any control..

Did anyone sail to Rønne recently?

[Montanan]

This pandemic has a long way to go before it runs it course.

As Yogi Berra astutely stated in 1973:

"It ain't over 'till it is over."

And it ain't over by a long shot.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/delta-var...090002409.html

Fast becoming the dominant strain of COVID-19 across Europe, Delta is wreaking havoc in Spain, Portugal and the United Kingdom. Spain alone reported nearly 44,000 cases on Tuesday, doubling the number recorded one week ago. Trying to blunt the effect of the strain that is expected by August to account for 70 percent to 90 percent of all cases in the EU, countries on the continent are clamping on new restrictions to counter a mutation that is at least twice as infectious at the variety that shuttered the world in 2020.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday that patrons must now present “health passes” showing full vaccination or negative COVID test to enter bars, cafés, restaurants, theaters and museums. Greece and Portugal have imposed similar requirements for those wishing to dine out or check into hotels. In the Netherlands, nightclubs and discos, closed for a year, opened for mere days before Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte ordered them shut again.

[goboatingnow]

The U.K. are of course removing all restrictions in a few days. Do delta can’t be that bad

[Exile]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The U.K. are of course removing all restrictions in a few days. Do delta can’t be that bad

I thought I recalled reading that at least some if not most of the vaxes appear to be effective against the Delta variant. Anyone else?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Exile

I thought I recalled reading that at least some if not most of the vaxes appear to be effective against the Delta variant. Anyone else?

A full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 64% effective at preventing infection and 64% at preventing symptomatic Covid-19 caused by the Delta variant, according to preliminary findings from a study by Israel’s health ministry.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...h=5601f8ddff33

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by boatman61

A full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 64% effective at preventing infection and 64% at preventing symptomatic Covid-19 caused by the Delta variant, according to preliminary findings from a study by Israel’s health ministry.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...h=5601f8ddff33

That's the most pessimistic view, disputed by most experts, and based on sketchy preliminary numbers.

Consensus best estimate is that two doses of Pfizer are 85% +/- maybe 5% effective against Delta.

See https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....d-b12a524dc9a5

And remember, that's effective in terms of symptomatic infection. In terms of preventing hospitalization, all the vaccines perform far better still, over 95% against the Delta variant. See https://www.gov.uk/government/news/v...-delta-variant.

All this is visible in the present situation in the UK - a fourth wave of infection is raging. But almost no one is dying. It's bad there are so many infections, but how great is it that hospitals are empty. Without severe cases in large numbers, this looks completely different.

[CatNewBee]

Singapore announced to degrade Covid19 to a regular flu and lift the state of emergency.

[boatman61]

08/07/2021 · 203 Total number of deaths within 28 days of positive test reported in the last 7 days (5 July 2021 – 11 July 2021) 81 (^66.4%) Change from previous 7 days (28 June 2021 – 4 July 2021)

[Montanan]

The big difference between the Delta variant and Coronavirus Classic is that Delta is way more contagious than the thing that got us all really concerned more than a year ago.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ant/ar-AALHuSy

How much more contagious? Well, scientists use a measure called R0 (pronounced R-naught) to measure the contagiousness of something. It’s essentially the answer to this question: “Without any immunity or any interventions, how many people does the average disease-infected person go on to infect?” The best estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for R0 for Coronavirus Classic is 2.5: the average sick person with regular ol’ coronavirus, without immunity or intervention, infects about 2.5 people.
The estimated R0 for the Delta variant, though, is estimated to be somewhere between 5 and 8. That means, without immunity or intervention, the average sick person goes on to infect five to eight people.

That is a huge difference. Gigantic, thanks to exponential growth. Let’s put it this way: After 10 reproductive cycles of Coronavirus Classic at that R0 of 2.5 above, you get 9,537 infected people. After 10 reproductive cycles of the Delta variant — at, let’s be optimistic, an R0 of 5 — you get 9,765,625 infected people. Basically, 10,000 vs. 10 million. Exponential growth is crazy.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by boatman61

08/07/2021 · 203 Total number of deaths within 28 days of positive test reported in the last 7 days (5 July 2021 – 11 July 2021) 81 (^66.4%) Change from previous 7 days (28 June 2021 – 4 July 2021)

Boatman, which country is that large increase in rate of deaths associated?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Boatman, which country is that large increase in rate of deaths associated?

England.. we may lose at football but this time we're seriously going for the Cup..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by boatman61

England.. we may lose at football but this time we're seriously going for the Cup.. [emoji3]

Well, not really. Infection rate in the UK is now over 500, but death rate is still only 0.5 per million. That's 20 times less than it was just a few months ago.

[Montanan]

"Our research showed fewer, milder symptoms were reported in vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated adults who had contracted the virus."

This aligns with other data suggesting that two doses provide the best protection from the Delta variant, and the one dose gives significantly less, but is better than nothing. According to figures from Public Health England (PHE), one dose of AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine reduced the risk of catching mild symptoms of COVID-19 by 35%. However, even one dose of vaccine protects against the more severe risk of COVID-19, reducing the risk of hospitalization by 80%. Two doses of vaccine were much more protective, reducing the risk of having mild symptoms of the disease by about 80%, and the risk of hospitalization by 96%, the PHE data said.
Preliminary data from ZOE also suggests the risk of long COVID is also substantially reduced by two doses of vaccine,

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

[laird]

Just when we thought it was getting better ,one of our team reported in sick today with suspected covid , it might be a ploy to have a week or two on sick pay , he's a Mid twenties guy with a habit of taking time off for being sick

Hope it's not for real as it could mean a lot of people having to self isolate

[Dockhead]

Situation today:





I have removed UK because the huge outbreak there compresses the scale of the others. UK is over 700 daily infections per million -- similar to the peaks of previous waves.


Other Northern European countries are doing very well, with only Denmark having more than 100 daily infections per million, and that is coming down. It's getting somewhat worse in Finland and Estonia, which both have over 50, but this is a low base. Sweden presently has the lowest infection rate int the Nordic countries, at about 29.


The situation with death is really good, less than 0.1 per million throughout the Nordic countries -- vaccination is protecting vulnerable people and has all but eliminated any material rate of death in the region. Only slightly worse in the Baltic States and Germany. Even the UK, where the Delta variant is rampaging, is not seeing high levels of death -- less than 1 per million per day, compared to over 15 at the peak.



What concerns vaccinations -- boy, have the Nordic countries caught up!! Denmark now has more shots in arms per capita than the U.S., and Sweden and Finland are only slightly behind, all approximately 100 doses per 100 people. Germany has also passed the U.S. Even Latvia is at 70.



The U.K. shows that fairly high levels of vaccination stop people from dying, but are not stopping the Delta variant from spreading. I guess this is the new world we live in -- we haven't eradicated it, there is no significant herd immunity yet, but we can at least save lives. Maybe that's good enough.