Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Wotname

There are mumblings in the back rooms of restarting the UQ trials given the HIV false positive concern is of a fairly minor consequence in the grand scheme of things. A second (different) HIV test quickly confirms if the said positive result is true or false.

At the time of halting the UQ programme, the AZ clotting issue was unknown (at least publicly); if it had been, I think UQ would have pushed on.

UQ has not stopped working on the vaccine. Although Stage 2 has never gone ahead as planned (and it never will, as it induced our bodies to make antibodies to the HIV protein used in the vaccine), Stage 1 of trials is still continuing to see how long the antibodies to HIV last.

Also work is being done to alter the “molecular clamping” proteins used in the vaccine to non-HIV proteins. This does, however, take researchers back to step 1 with laboratory work and animal experiments etc (at a stage they were well before the pandemic with the use of these molecular clamps) so this will not be a quick solution.

I think it would be good to get this option in place, as it employs a more traditional mode of action for vaccines: injecting the viral protein itself instead of the genetic information to instruct our bodies to make the spike protein (the way the new technology used by Pfizer, Moderna, AZ, JJ, Sputnik, etc works).

SWL

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Mostly are, by the border coming into country and other "legit" reasons it's free but like going for vacation you got to pay about 100 to 200€ for a test. Thou you can say feeling a bit sick and go for a free test anyways..

In Oz if you go for a drive through test it is free but all you get is a text saying either 'carry on' or 'that's you stuffed'.
If you want a whiz bang three page report for travel its $Au150.

I had to get one to go to NZ. Booked one in Wang which is a little bit rural and not the sort of place you would expect much demand... had one at 0830 the following day ... in and out in 10 minutes... its all bollocks about it being it being an uncomfortable test.
LIC ( lady in charge) said they were booked solid for the next week, guess lots like me looking for a mental health break in the land of the LWC.
Plane to NZ chocka ... one back not so much maybe 1/3 full.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Mostly are, by the border coming into country and other "legit" reasons it's free but like going for vacation you got to pay about 100 to 200€ for a test. Thou you can say feeling a bit sick and go for a free test anyways..

The UK has been dishing out free lateral test kits to anyone who asks. They arrive by post in 48 hours and recommend two tests a week. We have a batch at work as well so have been using those. Its a bit of a chemistry set and sticking a swab up your nose none too pleasant, but results appear quickly within minutes.


https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus...ral-flow-tests

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Isn't the stated function of the vaccine(s) is to limit the hospitalisation and death due to Covid.

If the vaccine claims are true, then the Covid cases among the vaccinated should be mild to medium with little hospitalisation and very little death.

Previously I would have agreed with your analysis but I am starting to get a feel these days that Australians will be accepting of community spread post mass vaccination providing the vaccines are effective.

Still we wait and see!

Hi Wottie
Full vaccination has certainly been shown to be extremely effective in markedly reducing hospitalisations and deaths (around 90% for the Delta variant), but not preventing them.

Here in the UK it is estimated that over 90% of the population now has antibodies to SARS-Cov-2. Despite this, today 5000+ people are hospitalised and an average of 57 have been dying daily. In addition, this is after around 130,000 of the weakest members of the population (or those exposed to high viral loads) have already died from COVID-19. This is not due to “Freedom Day”. It only occurred on Monday, too soon to affect hospitalisations and deaths.

I doubt Australia will achieve nearly such a high % people with antibodies anytime soon, as there is little immunity present that has been gained after infection, and vaccine hesitancy is still relatively high. The death rate was no higher in 2020 compared to the last 5 years, so no “culling” has occurred. So if the country stops its policy of zero community cases, the death rate is likely to be much higher than it is currently in the UK.

After the severe restrictions imposed in some Australian states (a total of over 6 months now of “stay at home” lockdowns in Melbourne in order to prevent every possible death), I don’t think this death rate will be acceptable to Aussies or that politicians in every single state will be willing to induce this. Some deaths are inevitable, despite how good the vaccines are.

I worry that opening up will be a very difficult and slow procedure in Australia even if pressured is applied on every individual to be vaccinated.

I at least agree that we can only wait and see. I can only hope my concerns are fruitless and that you are right.

SWL

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Pete7

The UK has been dishing out free lateral test kits to anyone who asks. They arrive by post in 48 hours and recommend two tests a week. We have a batch at work as well so have been using those. Its a bit of a chemistry set and sticking a swab up your nose none too pleasant, but results appear quickly within minutes.


https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus...ral-flow-tests

Wonder what happened to cough/spit tests. About a year ago saw study of them being at least as accurate as stick swabs. Maybe that would be just too easy and "painless" for the healt authorities to compehend.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

In Oz if you go for a drive through test it is free but all you get is a text saying either 'carry on' or 'that's you stuffed'.
If you want a whiz bang three page report for travel its $Au150.

I had to get one to go to NZ. Booked one in Wang which is a little bit rural and not the sort of place you would expect much demand... had one at 0830 the following day ... in and out in 10 minutes... its all bollocks about it being it being an uncomfortable test.
LIC ( lady in charge) said they were booked solid for the next week, guess lots like me looking for a mental health break in the land of the LWC.
Plane to NZ chocka ... one back not so much maybe 1/3 full.

All test results here are loaded up on a database where you can load for your mobile your e-certificates of tests results as your vaccinations.

[goboatingnow]

65 euros in Greece for a full PCR test.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Nobody thinks the vaccine stops you from catching covid - well almost nobody.
It stops you from getting very sick or dying.

You can still pass it on to the unvaccinated. In years to come this shall be known as 'the Great Cull'.

What I would like to see and - what we can see in NSW - is how many cases each day, how many of them in hospital, and a breakdown of them in hospital and ICU into vaxxed / unvaxxed.

This statiscs break downs are very well done in Israel, the covid cases of vaccinated and unvaccinated correlate almost exactly with the vaccination rate (not showing any difference procentually to the people in each group), statistics also show, covid reconvalescent are statistically better protected from new infections than vaccinated.

Other countries do not provided that detailed drill downs unfortunately.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

This statiscs break downs are very well done in Israel, the covid cases of vaccinated and unvaccinated correlate almost exactly with the vaccination rate (not showing any difference procentually to the people in each group), statistics also show, covid reconvalescent are statistically better protected from new infections than vaccinated.

Other countries do not provided that detailed drill downs unfortunately.

Not quite so. In Israel new covid cases are about 1000 daily showing 40% effiency, in UK daily cases are 45 000 showing over 80% effiency against covid. I trust on the bigger sample much more as do Israeli professor from Ben Gurion University.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi Wottie
.......
I doubt Australia will achieve nearly such a high % people with antibodies anytime soon, as there is little immunity present that has been gained after infection, and vaccine hesitancy is still relatively high. The death rate was no higher in 2020 compared to the last 5 years, so no “culling” has occurred. So if the country stops its policy of zero community cases, the death rate is likely to be much higher than it is currently in the UK.

After the severe restrictions imposed in some Australian states (a total of over 6 months now of “stay at home” lockdowns in Melbourne in order to prevent every possible death), I don’t think this death rate will be acceptable to Aussies or that politicians in every single state will be willing to induce this. Some deaths are inevitable, despite how good the vaccines are.

I worry that opening up will be a very difficult and slow procedure in Australia even if pressured is applied on every individual to be vaccinated.

I at least agree that we can only wait and see. I can only hope my concerns are fruitless and that you are right.

SWL

The 'great cull is just getting underway in NSW and I don't see them getting a lid on it with their very soft lockdown, Gladys has totally lost the plot. People are asked nicely to stay home which of course they don't. Case in point friends from Canberra are currently at their ski lodge at Perisher fraternising with their chums from Moree.

Speaking of snow - the hard lockdown in Victoria has people ordered to stay home unless 'essential' business is involved. The weather is such at the moment that no one in their right mind would be leaving home anyway no matter how essential.

'We need some tucker, its your turn to go down to the shop'
'No it isn't'
'Yes it is'
'No it isn't'
and so on.

Victoria's short sharp restrictions work and we expect this one to be over by midweek.
Yes its inconvenient - nothing more - but quite a few people who would otherwise have been dead probably reckon its worth it. I do.

How do we get back to normal? Dunno.... the Muppet is saying that we will be vaccinating 100,000 a day very soon.
Ecuador is vaxxing 300,000 a day already, sigh.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

UQ has not stopped working on the vaccine. Although Stage 2 has never gone ahead as planned (and it never will, as it induced our bodies to make antibodies to the HIV protein used in the vaccine), Stage 1 of trials is still continuing to see how long the antibodies to HIV last.

Also work is being done to alter the “molecular clamping” proteins used in the vaccine to non-HIV proteins. This does, however, take researchers back to step 1 with laboratory work and animal experiments etc (at a stage they were well before the pandemic with the use of these molecular clamps) so this will not be a quick solution.

I think it would be good to get this option in place, as it employs a more traditional mode of action for vaccines: injecting the viral protein itself instead of the genetic information to instruct our bodies to make the spike protein (the way the new technology used by Pfizer, Moderna, AZ, JJ, Sputnik, etc works).

SWL

I agree with almost all of this and my disagreement is very minor. AFAIK, stage 2 trials had been completed (or almost completed) before the plug was plugged (apparently initially by CEPI) and the Oz government withdrew it's underwriting of manufacturing dollars.

Yes, work continues with "clamp version 2" with ongoing developmental funding from a variety of sources (including CEPI).

Some now want the original version (clamp v1) to recommence and go into stage 3 trials as it seems the false HIV positives are fading with time. I guess that won't happen. IMO, both should happen!

But hey, I don't have any inside knowledge and all the above could be wrong!

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi Wottie
Full vaccination has certainly been shown to be extremely effective in markedly reducing hospitalisations and deaths (around 90% for the Delta variant), but not preventing them.

Here in the UK it is estimated that over 90% of the population now has antibodies to SARS-Cov-2. Despite this, today 5000+ people are hospitalised and an average of 57 have been dying daily. In addition, this is after around 130,000 of the weakest members of the population (or those exposed to high viral loads) have already died from COVID-19. This is not due to “Freedom Day”. It only occurred on Monday, too soon to affect hospitalisations and deaths.

I doubt Australia will achieve nearly such a high % people with antibodies anytime soon, as there is little immunity present that has been gained after infection, and vaccine hesitancy is still relatively high. The death rate was no higher in 2020 compared to the last 5 years, so no “culling” has occurred. So if the country stops its policy of zero community cases, the death rate is likely to be much higher than it is currently in the UK.

After the severe restrictions imposed in some Australian states (a total of over 6 months now of “stay at home” lockdowns in Melbourne in order to prevent every possible death), I don’t think this death rate will be acceptable to Aussies or that politicians in every single state will be willing to induce this. Some deaths are inevitable, despite how good the vaccines are.

I worry that opening up will be a very difficult and slow procedure in Australia even if pressured is applied on every individual to be vaccinated.

I at least agree that we can only wait and see. I can only hope my concerns are fruitless and that you are right.

SWL

You could well be correct on all points. If so, we will do what we always do when we get too upset, we toss out the sitting governments (of any persuasion) .

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

This statiscs break downs are very well done in Israel, the covid cases of vaccinated and unvaccinated correlate almost exactly ...

Source?

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Source?

That was easy to google and see it was a false claim..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Source?

What he means, I think, is that people hospitalized with COVID in Israel right now are 50/50 vaccinated/unvaccinated.


This is utterly meaningless since nearly 100% of vulnerable people are vaccinated, and as of the beginning of April, 72% of all people over 16. So even with effectiveness of say 90%, the one in ten "breakthrough" infections are still going to be largely vaccinated people. With so few unvaccinated people, it's actually surprising that as many as 50% of hospitalizations are of unvaccinated people. This is a bunch of nothing.


What is more alarming is that the preliminary statistics from Israel show much lower effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine against the Delta variant than other studies have shown -- 39%, vs 88% in a similar but much larger study of real world data done in the UK. See: https://medicaltrend.org/2021/07/25/...delta-variant/. Note again that this is effectiveness against symptomatic infection. Effectiveness against hospitalization is much higher in all cases.



Scientists, including the author of the Israeli study, consider the Israeli results to be an anomaly. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/06/s...d-vaccine.html



Worth noting also is that in the last few months, the death rate in Israel has not exceed 0.23 per million -- which is nothing; bupkins. Despite a small spike in cases up to 139 daily cases per million, a moderate rate.