Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

"
On the big question side - is it possible to suppress the epidemic forever, with whatever measures, or are you just delaying it? We shall see how the situation develops in NSW.

In any case of course it is extremely risky to have allowed vaccination to proceed so slowly, leaving the country so vulnerable for so long. We've seen how Europe managed to accelerate to warp speed after a slow start - I sure hope that Oz can manage to do the same. Otherwise the wheels can come off this strategy in no time.

The Federal government totally utterly and completely stuffed up procurement of vaccines.
Locally we are making about 1 million of doses of AZ a week but few want it as Slomo scared everyone off with some pretty dumb statements.

Australia is like a family in an African big game park. The camper van has been surrounded by hungry lions so they have all climbed onto the roof of the van.

Now they are thinking - do we throw grannie to the lions and run or do we throw the snottie nosed little nephew that none of us like to the lions

One way or the other someone is getting thrown to the lions before christmas - or the next federal election.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

"Lockdown" is a term used in different ways, but I'm using it in the strict sense of stay at home orders, other severe restrictions of movement, and mass closing of businesses.

This definition does not equate to much of the very many different lockdowns that occurred in Australia.

Whether and to what extent they work is a question for science.

If by 'work' you mean they prevent the spread of Covid, then science has answered this yonks ago (as in centuries). If the virus vector is through humans, then preventing humans travelling prevents the virus spreading. Of course, if there are other transmission vectors (birds, animals etc) then locking down humans has little effect. To date, Covid is assumed to be transmitted by humans.


I have not seen any strong evidence that lockdowns have a significant beneficial effect.

Then you need to look the real time experiments carried out in WA, QLD, SA, VIC and TAS. All of these states had community spread of Covid in varying degrees and in every instance, the virus has been suppressed. The principle action they took was fast, hard, enforced and mostly SHORT targeted lockdowns. Three times the breakout of Covid was the 'feared' Delta variant. Three times it has been suppressed.

After each lockdown, life quickly returned to almost normal. Employment was greater than pre Covid and the economy quickly recovered.

I don't know your definition of 'significant beneficial effect' but the results of these actions seem pretty beneficial to my eyes; certainly beneficial health and business wise.


Yet it is clear that they are massively costly and massively destructive.

Maybe they are in some parts of the world but I haven't seen any real evidence of this in the Australian context; outside of RW media beat ups.

Correlation does not prove causation, so the fact that my region has gotten through the pandemic best of any region of Europe doesn't prove that lockdowns are never needed. Likewise, the fact that a minor outbreak in Vic was contained whilst lockdowns were implemented doesn't prove that they were necessary or that they evenwork, and much less does it prove that they were worth the cost.

When the same actions are repeated and the same outcomes are archived and when no action is taken and the outcomes revert, then it is no longer simple correlation, it becomes causation. To repeat myself, Covid travels around the community by way of humans moving around in the community. Logic would suggest restricting the movement of humans will restrict the virus spreading. Real world experience confirms this. Well to be honest, I can only speak to the Australian and NZ real world experience. YMMV. As for the costs, you keep repeating that lockdowns are massively costly. What is the evident to support this? From where I sit, I just don't see it. Maybe I'm blind to it! It seems to me that the ongoing 18 months of various tough Covid restrictions in the UK has been far more costly than our short sharp lockdowns in Oz. To say nothing of the assumedly huge medical costs of treating many many thousands of hospitalised Covid patients.

And indeed there is a strong negative correlation between lockdowns and outcomes around the world.

Again perhaps elsewhere but this isn't the lived experience down under.

So we don't really know for sure.

Agreed but the evidence I see suggests lockdowns can work if carried out correctly and conversely, they don't work if they are stuffed up. We have certainly seen incompetence a couple of times in Australia and the outcome is always bad. The current breakout in NSW in a great case in point. The lockdown is second rate by any measure (too soft, way too late etc) and the outcome so far is dismal, very very dismal.


It looks to me that lockdowns are not extremely effective in the best case, and could hardly be worth the cost in any case. But scientists will be studying this for years to come and I guess we will gradually have a better understanding.

I hope so!

Whether Australia's strategy was good or not is not yet clear. On the plus side, severe measures, however effective or ineffective they are, have in any case a far lesser cost, far lesser downside if they are not implemented for long periods of time, and Australia did fairly well there compared to many other countries.

On the big question side - is it possible to suppress the epidemic forever, with whatever measures, or are you just delaying it? We shall see how the situation develops in NSW.

Pretty sure the answer is NO. The best Australia can do is suppress the virus until the population is vaccinated. Currently it is estimated that 89% needs to be fully vaccinated before Covid simply becomes endemic in the community with similar hospitalisation and deaths rates as the 'flu.

In any case of course it is extremely risky to have allowed vaccination to proceed so slowly, leaving the country so vulnerable for so long. We've seen how Europe managed to accelerate to warp speed after a slow start - I sure hope that Oz can manage to do the same. Otherwise the wheels can come off this strategy in no time.

I totally and completely agree with your last paragraph. In fact, I believe you have understated it. It is hard to find polite words to describe the utter despair I feel about our downright shameful performance regarding protecting the population through vaccination. I have zero expectation that we can pull up our socks, roll up our sleeves and get the job done; zero, absolutely zero!

I so wish I am wrong but experience tells me I would a fool unto myself and a burden to others to believe otherwise.

Did I mention we have cocked up the vaccination side of Covid (big time); no ifs, no buts.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Sorry but that is not correct, what the link says is
'Up to 40,000 Pfizer doses will be allocated from NSW Health's rural and regional supply of COVID-19 vaccine to help Year 12 students in south west and western Sydney get back to school for face-to-face learning on 16 August.'

They are all going back to school on the 16th - maybe some will have had their first shot.
Nowhere does it say they will not be allowed back to school if awaiting that first shot or that they will not be allowed back if they refuse it.
I can't find that anywhere else either.

Ping, the media is reporting the following:

“Ms Berejiklian said students from those areas would be only be allowed to return to the classroom if they had taken up the vaccine offer.
“We do not want students coming face-to-face learning, getting the virus and taking it home to their families,” she said.
“(Chief health officer) Dr (Kerry) Chant’s advice to us was if you want Year 12’s face-to-face in those areas, they must get vaccinated and that’s what we are working hard to provide in the next few weeks.” ”

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/pa...02f4ad723cb0b6

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

........ But vaccination is the only way to stop this pandemic. At some point people need to think about humanity ............

Totally agree!. There may be more than one road to get there but in the end, the are only two ways for the pandemic to end.

Mass vaccination or mass infection.

The outcome is not 100% assured in either case but I know which I think is better is the better bet.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Ping, the media is reporting the following:

“Ms Berejiklian said students from those areas would be only be allowed to return to the classroom if they had taken up the vaccine offer.
“We do not want students coming face-to-face learning, getting the virus and taking it home to their families,” she said.
“(Chief health officer) Dr (Kerry) Chant’s advice to us was if you want Year 12’s face-to-face in those areas, they must get vaccinated and that’s what we are working hard to provide in the next few weeks.” ”

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/pa...02f4ad723cb0b6

Hmm... SBS world news is still reporting all NSW students will return to the classroom on August 16.

I guess we can't expect accuracy any more any where.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I totally and completely agree with your last paragraph. In fact, I believe you have understated it. It is hard to find polite words to describe the utter despair I feel about our downright shameful performance regarding protecting the population through vaccination. I have zero expectation that we can pull up our socks, roll up our sleeves and get the job done; zero, absolutely zero!



I so wish I am wrong but experience tells me I would a fool unto myself and a burden to others to believe otherwise.



Did I mention we have cocked up the vaccination side of Covid (big time); no ifs, no buts.

Well, that doesn't mean it can't accelerate. After a slow start, Europe is actually passing the U. S. already, vaccinating at warp speed. I bet Australia can do it too. And it seems to me you need to.

Australia is a small, highly developed country. By now the world markets are flooded with vaccines for paying customers. How hard can it be?

It was a trick to roll out mass vaccination in January and February when supplies were highly constrained, as the Brits and Yanks managed to do. But today - half a year later! - the world is a very different place.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Except that that is not true.

I have been infected with Covid plus I have had the Pfizer vaccine. I'm healthy and have a robust immune system so I'm not concerned about being infected again.

HOWEVER, not everyone gets a good level of immunity. Immune response is weaker in older people and in people with immune system problems. Therefore, allowing the virus to circulate because not enough people have been vaccinated will kill people. I have, for example, a 93 year old father whom I don't want killed as the result of some anti-vaxxer having refused the vaccine.

Besides that, allowing the virus to circulate because not enough people have been vaccinated will result in health care costs and economic harm which also vaccinated people pay for. I respect your right to make up your own mind but it is not clear that this right trumps my right to not pay for your intensive care ward because you have an irrational fear of the vaccine, or for the health care costs of however many people you infect, or suffer my share of the economic costs caused by your irrational fear.

Yet another consequence of allowing the virus to circulate on and on because not enough people get vaccinated is mutation.

For all these reasons, it is not so that just because I'm vaccinated and well immune, that I don't have any interest in whether you are vaccinated or not.

I am against lockdowns, which I think have been hugely destructive, and I share Seaworthylass' concerns about the quality of the policymaking on pandemic measures. I respect people's rights to their own opinions. But vaccination is the only way to stop this pandemic. At some point people need to think about humanity and put aside their fears around microscopic personal risks associated with the vaccines.

Beside this, vaccinated allow too the virus to circulate, it doesn't matter if you had a jab or not.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

There is a very good reason that very strong incentives should be put in place to encourage vaccination - up to and beyond 'vaccination passports'.

Most people refusing to get vaccinated are of below average intelligence.

Most people of below average intelligence work in menial jobs - cleaning dunnies, street sweeping, working for Amazon or Walmart.

OK there are outliers - some become presidents and prime ministers .

So if the virus bumps many of them off - what then?

The end of life as we knew it, thats what.


QED

That maybe true. and for those mentally challenget evety neuron is precious. they cannot risk to damage it by the vaccines.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Expressing a contrary opinion seems to make anyone, in the “public’s” view, one of the crackpots. Lack of respect for alternative opinions is not beneficial.









Well, if it prevents children from attending school, it is essentially the same thing as being mandatory. Currently in some regions of NSW year 12 students can only receive face-to-face education to prepare for their finals if they are vaccinated:



https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/P...210728_03.aspx









The widely accepted view is that eradication is not possible. This virus is now endemic. Many decisions on this basis is not sensible. People are clutching at straws.



SWL

It can be reduced to the point where it’s in effect eradicated. Like many diseases. Virus need hosts. Deny them hosts and the diseases retreats rapidly.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Beside this, vaccinated allow too the virus to circulate, it doesn't matter if you had a jab or not.

This is not the case. The viral load substantially decreases in the vaccinated. Studies now show that transmission is significantly inhibited.

Anti Vaxxers keep spreading mis truths or absolutes. Worse then the virus.
Is there a vaccine against anti vaxxers

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

This is not the case. The viral load substantially decreases in the vaccinated. Studies now show that transmission is significantly inhibited.

Anti Vaxxers keep spreading mis truths or absolutes. Worse then the virus.
Is there a vaccine against anti vaxxers

Yes, leave them alone, and get as many jabs as you want to instead. Statistically then you will compensate the antivaxxers and satisfy the vaccine makers goals.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

It can be reduced to the point where it’s in effect eradicated. Like many diseases. Virus need hosts. Deny them hosts and the diseases retreats rapidly.

This is why the virus produces escape mutation in vaccinated people.In unvaccinated, there is no pressure to mutate.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

This is why the virus produces escape mutation in vaccinated people.In unvaccinated, there is no pressure to mutate.

That’s not how virus mutates. Replication inherently produces mutations , mutations that survive longer inherently self select.

Hence once you reduce replication you reduce mutation

[goboatingnow]

The anti vaxxer argument gets more and more shrill

Initially its based around arguing the vaccine program won’t be effective.

That clearly has been proven wrong

So now they focus on the fear of a perceived future side effect and that such side effects will be serious. Yet no such side effect in any material numbers has arisen despite zillions being injected and some now over 8 months old

So now the anti vaxxers start on about freedoms , as if a freedom to acquire a contagious disease and transmit it to others ( and provide mutation sites ) is a valid “ freedom
“

That’s not washing either so then we get the conspiracy nut jobs ,big pharma , bill gates , microchips , even 5G

Face it. You’re in the weeds .

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The anti vaxxer argument gets more and more shrill

Initially its based around arguing the vaccine program won’t be effective.

That clearly has been proven wrong

So now they focus on the fear of a perceived future side effect and that such side effects will be serious. Yet no such side effect in any material numbers has arisen despite zillions being injected and some now over 8 months old

So now the anti vaxxers start on about freedoms , as if a freedom to acquire a contagious disease and transmit it to others ( and provide mutation sites ) is a valid “ freedom
“

That’s not washing either so then we get the conspiracy nut jobs ,big pharma , bill gates , microchips , even 5G

Face it. You’re in the weeds .

Face it, vaccines are not as effective as natural immunity, after 6 month efficacy is only 40%, re-infection rates are in par or better. You will need 2 jabs a year to keep up, until you get infected and built broader natural immunity.

Hospitalizations show in highly vaccinated countries admissions on par with fully vaccinated and not vaccinated person. Assymptomatic infections on unvaccinated show natural immunity is sufficient to dodge the virus at similar level as vaccinated people. They have the same control over the replication and potential spread.

It may not fit in your narrative, but that is how the immune system works...