Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Beside this, vaccinated allow too the virus to circulate, it doesn't matter if you had a jab or not.

Also objectively false. The vaccine doesn't prevent all infections, but greatly reduces them. Vaccination greatly reduces spreading of the virus.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Hmm... SBS world news is still reporting all NSW students will return to the classroom on August 16.

I guess we can't expect accuracy any more any where.

Everywhere you look there is something different.
This from 7News

Gladys - '“Dr Chant’s advice to us was if you want Year 12 face-to-face in those local government areas, they must get vaccinated and that’s why we are working hard to provide that in the next few weeks.”'

I guess you can either spend an hour of your day getting it straight from the horse's mouth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tweEsZF33GE

or just wait and see what happens on the 16th

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, that doesn't mean it can't accelerate. After a slow start, Europe is actually passing the U. S. already, vaccinating at warp speed. I bet Australia can do it too. And it seems to me you need to.

Australia is a small, highly developed country. By now the world markets are flooded with vaccines for paying customers. How hard can it be?

It was a trick to roll out mass vaccination in January and February when supplies were highly constrained, as the Brits and Yanks managed to do. But today - half a year later! - the world is a very different place.

Agree on all points.

My cynicism is based on the litany of failed promises by the guy whose job it was to source and supply the vaccines. The swish of the missed milestones racing by has become a roar in my ears. My fault really - fancy falling (again) for a pollie's promise. Mea culpa.

Maybe this time he will hit the jackpot - gosh, I'm sounding like problem gambler.

At least the pub still has beer so all is not lost!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bIJV8gaBK4

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Face it, vaccines are not as effective as natural immunity, after 6 month efficacy is only 40%, re-infection rates are in par or better. You will need 2 jabs a year to keep up, until you get infected and built broader natural immunity.

Hospitalizations show in highly vaccinated countries admissions on par with fully vaccinated and not vaccinated person. Assymptomatic infections on unvaccinated show natural immunity is sufficient to dodge the virus at similar level as vaccinated people. They have the same control over the replication and potential spread.

It may not fit in your narrative, but that is how the immune system works...

U.K. is now 66 % unvaccinated in hospital

That’s 66 percent of a much smaller population of unvaccinated then the remaining 33% of vaccinated from a far larger grouping and includes people with specific health compromises must of whom are vaccinated .

Face it the vaccine is a stunning success at 80 % efficacy or better.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Face it, vaccines are not as effective as natural immunity, after 6 month efficacy is only 40%, re-infection rates are in par or better. You will need 2 jabs a year to keep up, until you get infected and built broader natural immunity.

Hospitalizations show in highly vaccinated countries admissions on par with fully vaccinated and not vaccinated person. Assymptomatic infections on unvaccinated show natural immunity is sufficient to dodge the virus at similar level as vaccinated people. They have the same control over the replication and potential spread.

It may not fit in your narrative, but that is how the immune system works...

“The efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech fell from 96% to 84% over six months, according to data released Wednesday, a decline that could fuel Pfizer’s case that a third dose will eventually be required.”

Hardly anywhere near the figures you released

[CatNewBee]

Israel govt reports a decline to 40% of the first vaccinated with 2nd jab in february.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Israel govt reports a decline to 40% of the first vaccinated with 2nd jab in february.

But they had quite small sample of cases, not reliable figures for any conclusions..

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Also objectively false. The vaccine doesn't prevent all infections, but greatly reduces them. Vaccination greatly reduces spreading of the virus.

COVID vaccines slash viral spread

Many vaccines have been shown to provide strong protection against COVID-19. Now, growing evidence finds that they also reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by more than 80%. However, the studies were done before the highly transmissible Delta variant became prevalent, and scientists say it might be more easily spread by vaccinated people than earlier variants.

More ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z

Referenced Pre-Prints:

“Impact of BNT162b2 vaccination and isolation on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Israeli households: an observational study” ~ by Maylis Layan et al
➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....12.21260377v1

“Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel” ~ by Ottavia Prunas et al
➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.21260393v1

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Israel govt reports a decline to 40% of the first vaccinated with 2nd jab in february.

JERUSALEM, July 5 (Reuters) - Israel reported on Monday a decrease in the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in preventing infections and symptomatic illness but said it remained highly effective in preventing serious illness.

The decline coincided with the spread of the Delta variant and the end of social distancing restrictions in Israel.

Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said. At the same time the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from the coronavirus.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

JERUSALEM, July 5 (Reuters) - Israel reported on Monday a decrease in the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in preventing infections and symptomatic illness but said it remained highly effective in preventing serious illness.

The decline coincided with the spread of the Delta variant and the end of social distancing restrictions in Israel.

Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said. At the same time the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from the coronavirus.

The data was from a small data set , Pfizer’s own tests show less reduction in a bigger sample set.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by GordMay

COVID vaccines slash viral spread

Many vaccines have been shown to provide strong protection against COVID-19. Now, growing evidence finds that they also reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by more than 80%. However, the studies were done before the highly transmissible Delta variant became prevalent, and scientists say it might be more easily spread by vaccinated people than earlier variants.

More ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z

Referenced Pre-Prints:

“Impact of BNT162b2 vaccination and isolation on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Israeli households: an observational study” ~ by Maylis Layan et al
➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....12.21260377v1

“Vaccination with BNT162b2 reduces transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts in Israel” ~ by Ottavia Prunas et al
➥ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.21260393v1

Thanks for the links Gord.
I think the figures will be a little worse for the Delta variant, but I doubt by much.

A recent peer reviewed study in The New England Journal of Medicine showed Pfizer and AZ vaccine effectiveness of stopping symptomatic infection after 2 doses to be only slightly worse for the Delta variant compared to the Alpha: 88% vs 94% for Pfizer and 67% vs 74% for AZ.

I think the transmission is likely to be similarly reduced only by a small amount.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

SWL

[Wotname]

The Aussie roadmap out of Covid restrictions includes (potentially) a Vacclotto - we are a betting nation after all.

From the Grattan Institue research report issued today - "The Federal Government should establish Vaxlotto, a national $10 million-a-week lottery – everyone who has had one jab is in, and everyone with two jabs doubles their chances."

Their modelling says "that once 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated – and 95 per cent of the most vulnerable, including the over-70s – Australia can safety begin to ‘live with COVID’.

At 80 per cent, COVID would be in the community but severe cases would be rare."

Plenty more in the report https://grattan.edu.au/report/race-to-80/

[GordMay]

If there's a significant proportion of people who are not vaccinated, those are going to be the people primarily driving transmission, those are going to be the majority of the cases, those are going to be the vast, vast majority of the hospitalizations and deaths

Another recent study, from Public Health England, which was published as a correspondence in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that three weeks after people received a single dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, household transmission of the virus was reduced between 40 and 50 per cent.
While fewer cases will reduce disease burden, it is not yet clear whether these vaccinations will also reduce transmission, in the minority who have been vaccinated, but develop post-vaccination infection.

“Impact of vaccination on household transmission of SARS-COV-2 in England” ~ by Ross J Harris et al
➥ https://khub.net/documents/135939561...=1619601878136

[Wotname]

Especially for Dockhead

The more I hear about the current Covid situation in NSW, the faster I am coming around to your point of view about 'lockdowns".

From what I am seeing and hearing, the current NSW lockdown is manifestly ineffectual, wildly expensive and most likely damaging to many. In this regard, it is unlike any previous lockdowns in Oz. If this is similar to what he observes elsewhere, then I get his viewpoint.

The thing is, the virus breakout was the same as any other such event here - the index case was quickly identified but there is were the similarity ends. I can only assume the 'medical evidence' they relied on was tainted with political considerations. After all, the medical advice in the other states was notably different to the NSW 'advice'; one would assume the medical advice should have similar across the occasions.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by GordMay

If there's a significant proportion of people who are not vaccinated, those are going to be the people primarily driving transmission, those are going to be the majority of the cases, those are going to be the vast, vast majority of the hospitalizations and deaths

Regarding hospitalisations and deaths, it is not simply the % of people unvaccinated, but the % of vulnerable unvaccinated that will drive the figures.

I don’t have any links to attach, but the impression I have had is that, as expected, healthy young unvaccinated people are still less likely to be severely ill following infection than fully vaccinated vulnerable people.

SWL