Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Pelagic]

[QUOTE=Exile;3504974]Apparently a large number of mostly inner-city African-Americans who, given the not-so-distant history of the US govt using blacks as test subjects for nasty drugs, are not exactly trustful. Seems incongruous I know, given all the vaxes already meted out to whites and other groups. But if there's one common theme amongst most of these groups it's a lack of trust in the US govt. No big surprise there, but why it translates into such widespread resistance to the vaccines (esp. now) escapes me.



QUOTE]


In the Philippines we had the perfect storm of something like this when a French Denge Vaccine was administered between 2016 to 2018.

Dengvaxia, a vaccine created to help prevent dengue fever was introduced in the Philippines and administered to*over 800,000 children*through a school-based campaign. By 2018, the Philippine government stopped the campaign due to controversy around how the vaccine affected people who had never had the disease.*

What followed was a flurry of online misinformation, with influential bloggers and the national media amplifying the panic, and a highly politicised investigation. In the midst of this crisis, trust in vaccines’ safety plummeted from*82 percent in 2015 to just 21 percent, and may have contributed to a recent spike in*polio*and*measles*in the Philippines.

Then Covid came along with a Filipino population terrified of Vaccines.

I think only about 15% of the population have been vaccinated so far.


https://firstdraftnews.org/articles/...e-philippines/

[Anders]

Originally Posted by boatman61

UK extends Covid Emergency Powers by 6 months.. the most draconian since WW2.
No surprise..

They will be needed. All the numbers are going the wrong way and the so called plan B is just around the corner.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Anders

They will be needed. All the numbers are going the wrong way and the so called plan B is just around the corner.

We'll see. The death rate has been stable around 2 per million for months now. Hospital admissions fairly stable; actually lower than at the beginning of September. ICU patients stable. There is little to no appetite for further restrictions in the UK -- I would be surprised if they are reimposed whilst hospitals are still functioning reasonably well.

Where we have a real crisis is not the UK, but Latvia. Latvia, where I happen to be right now, is in the middle of a horrendous wave of infection, with daily cases over 1000 per million and daily death rate spiking towards 10 per million, hospitals overflowing. They've announced a hard lockdown starting today, complete with stay at home orders, something which has almost not been used at all in Northern Europe. Got to get out of here and maybe back to my yacht in Denmark where the pandemic is officially over. Ironically, at this late date, with the pandemic basically over in many parts of Europe, I am now for the very first time in a country which has stay at home orders imposed. It's a new experience for me.

Situation in all of the Nordic countries is very good at the moment, lowest infection rate is in Sweden and only Denmark somewhat over 100 daily cases per million, and very low death rates everywhere, with only Sweden being slightly over 0.5 per million per day. Vaccination here is slower now as only a few adults remain unvaxxed but nevertheless still cooking along at 0.25 to 0.3 doses per day per 100 except in Denmark where basically all adults are double vaxxed already. The vaccination going on now in the other Nordic countries is nearly all people getting their second doses.

Latvia was badly caught with its pants down with one of the lowest vaccination rates in Europe; currently only 51% of the population is double vaxxed. The Delta variant is ripping them a new one; it's awful. Latvia had an Australian-style slow start having bungled totally the initial acquisition of vaccines. But unlike Australia, which roared back, the vaccination campaign in Latvia has continued to be sluggish, and has been dogged by high levels of vaccine hesitancy. Only since a week ago has the daily vaccination rate cracked 0.5 per 100, as people have finally woken up to what is going on. But it's too little too late for this wave; I fear a lot of people will die. Latvia got through 2020 almost unscathed -- lucky I guess. The previous peak infection rate was only 530. That may have led to complacency, including with vaccination. Now however it has spiked over 1000 -- Bergamo territory.

[goboatingnow]

SWL , Yes fear driven policies are not the best. But remember this is a first for most of not all western public health officials. The precautionary principle whilst admirable for solely medical decisions is somewhat less suitable for political Ones

WhAt I don’t accept is any malice on behalf of authorities , incompetence yes , lack of early data , and a lot of public fears and demands to do something

I think every reasonable Gov has accepted closing schools was a mistake. Certainly in Ireland it was largely demanded initially by the public and resisted by the authorities. ( people had started removing their kids from school )

We’ll have plenty of analysis. This has more to run

[Dockhead]

Correction about the Latvian "lockdown" -- after all, the stay at home order applies only between 20:00 and 05:00. Otherwise, you are free to move around as you like. So it's only a partial lockdown. Basically, a curfew, with a damned early start.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . . I think every reasonable Gov has accepted closing schools was a mistake. Certainly in Ireland it was largely demanded initially by the public and resisted by the authorities. ( people had started removing their kids from school ) . . .

In the Nordic countries, the health authorities were all against closing schools from the beginning. But only Sweden never closed primary schools (the Swedes did briefly close high schools, basically cancelled the last month of Spring 2020 term).



There was a minor scandal in Denmark when it was revealed that the government overruled the health authorities advice in deciding to close schools.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

In the Nordic countries, the health authorities were all against closing schools from the beginning. But only Sweden never closed primary schools (the Swedes did briefly close high schools, basically cancelled the last month of Spring 2020 term).



There was a minor scandal in Denmark when it was revealed that the government overruled the health authorities advice in deciding to close schools.

Universities were a good part of the last winter thou. Don't remember excactly how long but my daughter was doing her studies from home every time I talked with her.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Universities were a good part of the last winter thou. Don't remember excactly how long but my daughter was doing her studies from home every time I talked with her.

Yes, universities were closed throughout the region, including Sweden.



Don't know if that was a good or bad decision, but closing unis is certainly much less destructive than closing primary schools, and probably with more epidemiological effect.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

There is little to no appetite for further restrictions in the UK -- I would be surprised if they are reimposed whilst hospitals are still functioning reasonably well.

Depends of which parts of plan B they bring in.
I dont think requirement to wear a mask would be a problem, lots of people are still wearing one in shops.
Covid pass for nightclubs and big events should not be a problem either seems to work fine in Scotland.
Lockdown and closure of "non essential shops" would be less popular.

[GordMay]

A new, slightly more contagious mutation, of the highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19, is beginning to attract attention, particularly in the United Kingdom, where cases are rising again.

The mutation, known as ‘AY.4.2' [Delta+], accounted for six per cent of all new cases genetically sequenced during the final week of September, according to the latest U.K. government data [1], which also describes it as "expanding" in the country.

An offshoot of the Delta variant, it contains two mutations in its spike protein, which allows the virus to penetrate human blood cells. Those mutations, known as Y145H and A222V, have been found in other variants dating back to the earliest stages of the pandemic.

[1] SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 25, 15 October 2021
➥ https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_25.pdf

Expert comments on the AY.4.2 subvariant [October 19, 2021]
➥ https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...-2-subvariant/

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Man, reading comprehension. I have always used the term "lockdown" in a consistent way. = stay at home orders; being confined to your home by law. Some lockdowns are tighter than others, but the essence is the same -- you are not free by law to leave your home except for a certain list of exceptions which varies from case to case. Is this hard to understand?






Sure they were. If you are allowed to leave your home only to go straight to the nearest grocery and back once a week, and once a day for an hour for exercise no more than 1000 yards from your home, and you are forbidden from visiting anyone or receiving visitors, how is this not being "confined to your home"? It's like saying that if a prisoner in the state pen gets a furlough once in a while, he's not really locked up.

......

Nice consistency of word usage. Not a single country of the half dozen I've been in had restrictions that you could only shop once a week, so the If is just your strawman. Do you have to exaggerat everything to make your point that things are so bad? And they also didn't restrict you to your house for months. Various degrees of restrictions were on and off over long periods. I know you have to refer everything to the law, but the restrictions that were given in countries by health authorities and followed were also lockdowns, law or not. In Sweden they were told not to go to there holiday homes and to work at home, Is this also some great imposition?

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

That's interesting but not surprising as it is an individual decision for all groups, but obviously influenced by their peers.

Would like to read any article on breakdown of non Vaxers but in terms of types I would think it is something like this:

1 Those who have been exposed to Covid and feel they have built up resistance.

2 Healthy Fence Sitters, who will keep delaying because of imagined fears of long term side effects.

3 Resistance Fighters who stubbornly will resist mandates and what they believe is Social Fear Mongering

4 Religious and Darwinian Beliefs

What have I missed?

Here's an article, dated by a few months, on the demographics of non vaxxers in the US(it is partially behind a paywall).
It describes the differences between the wait-and-see group vs the never group.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/u...americans.html

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by GordMay

A new, slightly more contagious mutation, of the highly transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19, is beginning to attract attention, particularly in the United Kingdom, where cases are rising again.

The mutation, known as ‘AY.4.2' [Delta+], accounted for six per cent of all new cases genetically sequenced during the final week of September, according to the latest U.K. government data [1], which also describes it as "expanding" in the country.

An offshoot of the Delta variant, it contains two mutations in its spike protein, which allows the virus to penetrate human blood cells. Those mutations, known as Y145H and A222V, have been found in other variants dating back to the earliest stages of the pandemic.

[1] SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England
Technical briefing 25, 15 October 2021
➥ https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_25.pdf

Expert comments on the AY.4.2 subvariant [October 19, 2021]
➥ https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...-2-subvariant/

The expert opinion concludes

“The emergence of yet another more transmissible strain would be suboptimal. Though, this is not a situation comparable to the emergence of Alpha and Delta that were far more transmissible (50% or more) than any strain in circulation at the time. Here we are dealing with a potential small increase in transmissibility that would not have a comparable impact on the pandemic.””

[El Pinguino]

Is Portugal the first country where Covid has gone from Pandemic to Epidemic?

https://phuketimes.com/endemic-covid...it-looks-like/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Nice consistency of word usage. Not a single country of the half dozen I've been in had restrictions that you could only shop once a week, so the If is just your strawman. Do you have to exaggerat everything to make your point that things are so bad? And they also didn't restrict you to your house for months. Various degrees of restrictions were on and off over long periods. I know you have to refer everything to the law, but the restrictions that were given in countries by health authorities and followed were also lockdowns, law or not. In Sweden they were told not to go to there holiday homes and to work at home, Is this also some great imposition?

You haven't been to Russia, or Spain.


In Russia, it's once a week, and you need a pre-approved pass to be on the street. In the UK at one point I think there were also restrictions on frequency. In Spain, during the first round of stay at home orders, children were not allowed to go out of the house AT ALL, except in case of a medical emergency, not to exercise, not to accompany parents, nothing.


Whether a stay at home order is "bad" or "no big deal" is subjective. For an aging white man with a big house, no children in school, few friends and no worries about work it might very well be "no big deal" -- no big change from life before the pandemic. For many others -- younger people with active social life, people with work which can't be performed from home, people with young children, people in confined living situations or with problems at home, it's a disaster.



In Spain, the Supreme Court declared the stay at home orders unconstitutional (as the courts up here would have done, if the governments had ever tried to implement them). The Spanish are in the process of refunding the more than one million (!!) fines imposed on Spanish people breaking the stay at home orders https://inspain.news/spanish-governm...t-alert-fines/


None of this proves that stay at home orders are not worth it. They might be worth it in some cases. But such measures have a very large cost, which does not fall equally on different demographics. Denying that cost is equivalent to denying that the pandemic is real. I didn't get sick yet; therefore the pandemic is not real and there is no reason to get vaccinated. Stay at home orders are no big deal for me (I don't go out anyway); therefore they are no big deal and no need to worry about their cost. Same kind of thinking.