Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

I generally think of "Our Region" as including the Balltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Ltihuania, together with the Nordic countries. These are of course somewhat different societies, former Soviet Union, quite a bit poorer than the Nordic countries, but nevertheless rather similar in culture, especially Estonia, where the people, according to a poll, consider Estonia to actually BE a Nordic country (which would surprise Danes and Swedes, I guess). Many Nordic mobile phone plans, like mine, include the Baltic States as being at home without roaming. Although the Baltic States maintain close cultural, family, and economic relationships with Moscow, most flights from Baltic capitals are now to Nordic countries (except Lithuania, which is connected to Poland).

And during the pandemic, the experience has been similar -- for the first year of it, Estonia and Latvia had similar infection and death rates to the Nordic countries (Lithuania had a bad outbreak in late 2020). Measures have been similar, with no lockdowns at any point.

But right now the paths of the Baltic states and Nordic countries is diverging sharply. The Nordic countries have the lowest infection and death rates in Europe; at the moment the Baltic states have the highest. Cumulative deaths are piling up with Lithuania already over 2000 per million, and Latvia heading that way quickly.






Why such a difference? Is it vaccination rates?





The Nordic countries are ahead of the EU average, with Denmark way out front; the Baltic states are well behind, especially Latvia. Australia is already ahead of all the Baltic states.


Whatever it is, I hope it ends soon. Life is completely normal in the Nordic countries, but the pandemic is still raging in the Baltic states.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

OK, let me know when you come. If I'm around I'll invite you for a beer.

Thanks. Do you drink that warm, slightly flat stuff they call beer "over there"?

If so, I actually kind of like it.

Much better than the fizzy, commercial stuff in America although the micro brews are quite good. They are getting a bit carried away with some of the flavored brews like pumpkin spice beer.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I generally think of "Our Region" as including the Balltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Ltihuania, together with the Nordic countries. These are of course somewhat different societies, former Soviet Union, quite a bit poorer than the Nordic countries, but nevertheless rather similar in culture, especially Estonia, where the people, according to a poll, consider Estonia to actually BE a Nordic country (which would surprise Danes and Swedes, I guess). Many Nordic mobile phone plans, like mine, include the Baltic States as being at home without roaming. Although the Baltic States maintain close cultural, family, and economic relationships with Moscow, most flights from Baltic capitals are now to Nordic countries (except Lithuania, which is connected to Poland).

And during the pandemic, the experience has been similar -- for the first year of it, Estonia and Latvia had similar infection and death rates to the Nordic countries (Lithuania had a bad outbreak in late 2020). Measures have been similar, with no lockdowns at any point.

But right now the paths of the Baltic states and Nordic countries is diverging sharply. The Nordic countries have the lowest infection and death rates in Europe; at the moment the Baltic states have the highest. Cumulative deaths are piling up with Lithuania already over 2000 per million, and Latvia heading that way quickly….

Why such a difference? Is it vaccination rates?……

I think when it comes to the death rate what is critical is not % of the total population vaccinated, but % of those over age 60. This group is responsible for most of the deaths by far. General health status of the elderly is also important.

Having said that, I do wonder if there is something magic in Nordic waters. With minimal restrictions they managed to escape cases escalating throughout this pandemic. I look at Sydney where case numbers rapidly increased beyond the limits of contact tracing (despite the subsequent stay-at-home lockdown) simply because of one infected driver. They were doing genomic sequencing on all tests initially and could trace this easily. I know sheer luck plays a role, but this can only work for a limited time. Why cases never took off in Nordic countries is a complete mystery to me.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I think when it comes to the death rate what is critical is not % of the total population vaccinated, but % of those over age 60. This group is responsible for most of the deaths by far. General health status of the elderly is also important.

Having said that, I do wonder if there is something magic in Nordic waters. With minimal restrictions they managed to escape cases escalating throughout this pandemic. I look at Sydney where case numbers rapidly increased beyond the limits of contact tracing (despite the subsequent stay-at-home lockdown) simply because of one infected driver. They were doing genomic sequencing on all tests initially and could trace this easily. I know sheer luck plays a role, but this can only work for a limited time. Why cases never took off in Nordic countries is a complete mystery to me.

SWL

Why cases never took off in the Nordic countries? Despite very moderate measures and no lockdowns? Why are they so lucky?


Well, no one knows. Maybe they were just lucky (luck plays a big role). Maybe it's the high proportion of single person households. Maybe it's, as the Finns say in their self-deprecating way, for us social distancing is just normal life.


Or maybe it's very sensible measures, implemented with great support from the population. Maybe the measures they did implement -- limits on public gathering, space between restaurant tables, etc. -- were the ones which really mattered, whereas the measures they didn't implement -- lockdowns, mass closing of businesses, masking outdoors, etc. etc. -- were not so useful. And generally great public health. I don't know. But the Nordic region is definitely where you will have wanted to spend this pandemic. A happy combination of very moderate measures, very little disuption of normal life, and very little effect of the virus.

[CatNewBee]

There is another outbreak in a nursing home in Germany, 14 death up to now, all fully vaccinated, some with booster shots. 44 double jabbed residents sick, also fully vaxed, 15 nurses too. In fact all residents were fully vaccinated and some even with boosters.

Alegedly 50% of the staff was unvaccinated, but not all the unvaccinated are the sick ones. Of course they blame it on the hesitance of the personell to get the shot.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

There is another outbreak in a nursing home in Germany, 14 death up to now, all fully vaccinated, some with booster shots. 44 double jabbed residents sick, also fully vaxed, 15 nurses too. In fact all residents were fully vaccinated and some even with boosters.

Alegedly 50% of the staff was unvaccinated, but not all the unvaccinated are the sick ones. Of course they blame it on the hesitance of the personell to get the shot.

This surprises you in some way? Please explain.


This is going to happen and will keep happening for years to come as the virus becomes endemic. The vaccines are exceptionally effective compared to other vaccines, but they are not 100% effective. Since vaccines depend on the person's immune system in order to work, people with compromised immune systems are most at risk and least protected by vaccines. This happens with influenza, too.


It would be correct to blame it one the hesitancy of the unvaccinated staff, as that will be the main vector of infection for the nursing home residents. People working with immune-compromised, sick, or very old people should be vaccinated, because this greatly reduces their propensity to transmit the disease to those people who are less well protected by the vaccines.


Whatever we do in the general population -- and in my view it's high time to take the restrictions off and let life go back to normal, in those countries which have achieved a high rate of vaccination -- we need to continue protecting vulnerable people.

[Anders]

I find it difficult to beleive that anyone would work in a nursing home without beeing fully vaccinated but from November 11th it's a legal requirement in England for all staff in nursing homes to be fully vaccinated unless they have a medical exemption.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Anders

I find it difficult to beleive that anyone would work in a nursing home without beeing fully vaccinated but from November 11th it's a legal requirement in England for all staff in nursing homes to be fully vaccinated unless they have a medical exemption.

We are seeing legislation in many many countries requiring vaccinations for categories that are front line or customer facing. I think this trend will continue.

Life will become quite difficult for those voluntarily not taking the vaccine, with many countries continuing with travel restrictions , indoor events etc, only for the vaccinated.

[CatNewBee]

I think after another year, vaccinated will cause all the trouble and the infections, as they already do - and this vaccine push hype will cease to exist.

You have to have it to spread it. Vaccinated are more likely not to notice they are spreaders, while unvaccinated will develop symptoms earlier and notice their infection and self isolate at home, as you do with any other illness when you are sick.

As recovered have better and broader protection than the vaccinated, they will be ok too in the long run, the vaccinated will catch it sooner or later and will develop natural immunity too over time - if they not suffer on the vaccine side effects.

Nature is amazing.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Why cases never took off in the Nordic countries? Despite very moderate measures and no lockdowns? Why are they so lucky?


Well, no one knows. Maybe they were just lucky (luck plays a big role). Maybe it's the high proportion of single person households. Maybe it's, as the Finns say in their self-deprecating way, for us social distancing is just normal life.


Or maybe it's very sensible measures, implemented with great support from the population. Maybe the measures they did implement -- limits on public gathering, space between restaurant tables, etc. -- were the ones which really mattered, whereas the measures they didn't implement -- lockdowns, mass closing of businesses, masking outdoors, etc. etc. -- were not so useful. And generally great public health. I don't know. But the Nordic region is definitely where you will have wanted to spend this pandemic. A happy combination of very moderate measures, very little disuption of normal life, and very little effect of the virus.

The temp rarely rising above 1ºC and no sun for six months of the year probably imposes something of a natural lockdown on the population of the northern nordic regions.

In Australia lets look at the recent delta outbreak in Victoria. The NSW experience was similar.
The outbreak was mainly in areas with one thing in common. It was concentrated in places with a common feature - large families in the one house - commonly covering three generations - and the younger generation often employed in transport and the like.
It wasn't just a single area but one area just north of Melbourne and another to the south east - both with similar demographics. The only two rural areas affected to any degree - Latrobe Valley and Shepparton - have a similar profile.

The rest of the state which has been largely untouched this year and last? Smaller single generation households or young families on quarter acre blocks - does anybody else remember them .
.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

The temp rarely rising above 1ºC and no sun for six months of the year probably imposes something of a natural lockdown on the population of the northern nordic regions.

In Australia lets look at the recent delta outbreak in Victoria. The NSW experience was similar.
The outbreak was mainly in areas with one thing in common. It was concentrated in places with a common feature - large families in the one house - commonly covering three generations - and the younger generation often employed in transport and the like.
It wasn't just a single area but one area just north of Melbourne and another to the south east - both with similar demographics. The only two rural areas affected to any degree - Latrobe Valley and Shepparton - have a similar profile.

The rest of the state which has been largely untouched this year and last? Smaller single generation households or young families on quarter acre blocks - does anybody else remember them .
.

Well, Nordic people spend a lot of time outdoors, more than Americans! And the temperature even breaks +20 on odd occasions! (There is a funny Finnish joke about the climate -- One Finn says to the other "What a great summer we had last year!" Other Finn: "Yeah, too bad I had to work that day.")


So no "natural lockdown".


However, the Nordic countries have some of the smallest households and largest proportions of single person households in the world.



So I think you may be right -- this may have been a lucky factor.


A little data point in further support of your idea -- the worst outbreak in the Nordics we had by far was in Stockholm in the first months of the pandemic in 2020. Not in Stockholm everywhere, but specifically in those neighborhoods where Middle Eastern immigrants live -- in large multigenerational households. Sweden, unlike the other Nordic countries, has a very large population of recent immigrants from the Middle East.

[CatNewBee]

Finnland in these days is more like 50 shades of grey, but without the sex thing... [emoji12]

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Finnland in these days is more like 50 shades of grey, but without the sex thing... [emoji12]

Have you actually ever spent time in Finland?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Finnland in these days is more like 50 shades of grey, but without the sex thing... [emoji12]

Actually we have had a really beautiful autumn in Finland this year, and the summer -- joking aside -- was sunny and hot, with temps around 30 for weeks. I actually used air conditioning in one of my land homes for the first time ever.

It will be interesting to see if the sea freezes this year. We had a good, sunny, cold winter last time, and the sea froze solid -- everyone was happy about that. But the previous two years the sea didn't freeze at all and the winter was nasty and soggy, and "fifty shades of gray"! Hoping for a proper cold one this time, although I will be crossing the Atlantic in January and not in Finland too much during the coldest part of the winter.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Finnland in these days is more like 50 shades of grey, but without the sex thing... [emoji12]

Actually 50 shades of BLACK. We went off summer time last Sunday, so the season of darkness has officially started, as the days get shorter and shorter.


This is when we like to keep fires burning in the fireplace, and go to sauna!