Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[El Pinguino]

50 shades of whatever 'without the sex thing'.

I've always thought the sauna business was the Finns' 'sex thing'.

Note. I have never been to Finland but I have visited Norway and Sweden. The only Finns I know are either living on islands in Chile or making wine in Tuscany.

Back on subject ie covid and living conditions.
Peru has the world's worst per capita death toll from Covid. Having been by bus through Lima ( population 7.7 million ) from top to bottom and seen how the bulk of that city's population lives I would say it is all about housing density. The living conditions of most are pretty bad.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...h-data-revised

[goboatingnow]

WHO now says Europe is the epicentre of the pandemic !!

[El Pinguino]

It seems to be primarily an east european issue
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59160525

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

It seems to be primarily an east european issue
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59160525

Indeed, and it's even worse than it looks, because the Russian statistics are fake.

Russia, which already is the hardest hit country in Europe, and one of the hardest hit countries in the world by excess death (see: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/e...han-it-appears)

is in the middle of a horrendous outbreak which dwarfs the previous ones.

Russia only counts a death as a covid death if the cause of death is EXCLUSIVELY covid, with no comorbidities. So the official cumulative deaths are 1 636 per million, better than the European average, but excess deaths are over 4 000 per million.

And that's not all, as the current wave is worse than all of the previous ones by far.

Russia is being cruelly punished by widespread vaccine hesitancy, despite being the FIRST country in the world to certify a vaccine, a vaccine which has turned out to be highly effective, and the first country in the world to offer the vaccine to all citizens. Only 34% of the population is fully vaccinated.

The situation with vaccination is even worse in Ukraine, with only 18% of the population fully vaccinated.

God help them.

Up here, the situation is still more or less OK. Sweden is doing great, with under 100 daily infections per million, the lowest rate in the region, and no death to speak of, hospitals empty. Finland is slightly over 100 again but without any big rate of increase, and again almost no death and empty hospitals. Norway is at 223. Denmark has the biggest outbreak in the Nordics, 334 daily infections today, but with the highest vaccination rate in the region, the death rate in Denmark is the lowest in the region, even lower than second-best Sweden. In the Nordics, the restrictions have been completely eliminated and we are continuing with the "endemic, not pandemic" approach. So far so good. Booster shots are now being made available and I might get mine in Finland, as it's now been more than 6 months since my second jab.

In Latvia, the big outbreak is subsiding, with substantial decreases in daily infections for about the last week. Death rate is still very, very high, almost touching 20 per million this week, but is at last decreasing. Now Estonia gets its turn with a big outbreak. Cases are subsiding in Lithuania.

In Germany, there has been a spike in cases, which are now approaching 300. The health ministers of the Bundesländer are meeting right now to discuss possible renewed pandemic measures. Germany has a not high, but non-trivial death rate, about triple the death rate in Sweden at the moment, so there is some concern. Germany lags the Nordic region in vaccination rate, and there is a push to vaccinate more people, although at 66% of the entire population fully vaccinated, slightly better than the EU average, you can't say the situation is bad. Germany has a "traffic light" system for restrictions, based on percentage of hospital beds occupied in different regions. They currently have almost no restrictions, but some regions might get back some restrictions if hospital cases get too high.

[Zippee]

In the same way an epidemiologist is probably not our best source for cruising advice, the reverse seems equally true. As laypersons, we all want answers, especially as Covid has long prevailed and many of us have reached a state of exhaustion and confusion.


I have read here our history of changing expectations, failed predictions, and hopeful but often inaccurate opinions on Covid. The latest seems to be the changing death rates. One of the best daily sources I have found is Dr. John Campbell of the UK who has proven to me to be factual and informative. In computers we all know that garbage in is garbage out - and most of what we see or hear is based on what is often misleading data.


I highly recommend you check this video on why death rates (and others) cannot be fully trusted for either planning or understanding. The Covid problem is accordingly much worse than has generally been reported, including here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdmb5NFiEW0

This is a must watch at least in my view. Campbell posts daily and is worth my time.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Zippee

In the same way an epidemiologist is probably not our best source for cruising advice, the reverse seems equally true. As laypersons, we all want answers, especially as Covid has long prevailed and many of us have reached a state of exhaustion and confusion.

I have read here our history of changing expectations, failed predictions, and hopeful but often inaccurate opinions on Covid. The latest seems to be the changing death rates. One of the best daily sources I have found is Dr. John Campbell of the UK who has proven to me to be factual and informative. In computers we all know that garbage in is garbage out - and most of what we see or hear is based on what is often misleading data.

I highly recommend you check this video on why death rates (and others) cannot be fully trusted for either planning or understanding. The Covid problem is accordingly much worse than has generally been reported, including here.

This is a must watch at least in my view. Campbell posts daily and is worth my time.

Good video, but very basic, and nothing which hasn't already been thoroughly discussed already in this thread -- the main point is that we should be looking at excess mortality rather than official death counts. Campbell's main reference, and Economist article, was already linked in this thread and discussed.

I think you underestimate your fellow sailors on here.

Campbell's main point is that deaths are significantly underreported on a worldwide basis, and this is true on a worldwide basis, but the good news, is that this is not much true for the U.S. and not true at all for Western and Northern Europe. UK official death and excess death line up closely, actually excess death is somewhat less than official deaths, and in the Nordic countries (getting back to the topic of this thread) we see considerably less excess death than official covid deaths. In Sweden, for example, excess death is only about 1 000 per million, compared to official covid deaths of 1 436 -- we discussed this just a few pages back in this thread -- and in Denmark and Finland there is no excess death at all.

This is all from the Economist article linked by Campbell, the same article linked in posts in this thread above, but Campbell doesn't go into this much detail as he is focussed on those countries where death is UNDERreported.

If you had been reading this thread, you would have already known more about it than is presented in Campbell's video


I think you also be making a mistake, if you think that the facts presented by Cambell contradict a "hopeful" view on where we are in the pandemic (at least in this part of the world). Campbell is pretty hopeful himself; saying near the end of the video that he expects dramatic reductions in death rates to start soon, in countries with high vaccination rates, like the U.S. and Western Europe, Australia, NZ. "Due to herd immunity effects", Cambell says.


I don't think anything in the video is controversial; I daresay just about everyone active in this thread agrees with all of it.

[Dockhead]

And now it's time for yet more shameless positivity about the pandemic. This news:


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11...ariant-vaccine


is really, really, really big. We are obsessed with vaccination, but TREATMENT is another very important part of the puzzle.



First, we got vaccines with 90%+ effectiveness -- beyond our wildest dreams.



NOW, we have a treatment which is almost 90% effective in preventing severe symptoms.



Big Pharma has really hit the ball out of the park. Now we have basically two very effective and entirely different lines of defense.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

And now it's time for yet more shameless positivity about the pandemic. This news:


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11...ariant-vaccine


is really, really, really big. We are obsessed with vaccination, but TREATMENT is another very important part of the puzzle.



First, we got vaccines with 90%+ effectiveness -- beyond our wildest dreams.



NOW, we have a treatment which is almost 90% effective in preventing severe symptoms.



Big Pharma has really hit the ball out of the park. Now we have basically two very effective and entirely different lines of defense.

Yep, big news is correct .

Just waiting for new howls of conspiracies about Big Pharma to tear around the world faster than any virus

As for me, I prefer prevention rather than treatment but I like having two bits of the cherry if the virus strikes me.

And for once, Australia is on the front foot having (apparently) preordered a fist full of these pills or so we are told.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Wotname

And for once, Australia is on the front foot having (apparently) preordered a fist full of these pills or so we are told.

Wotty, want to buy a bridge?

Improvements in treatment have been an ongoing thing for a while - why even up here in the bush we have fancy stuff https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/...sions/?cs=9681

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Wotty, want to buy a bridge?

......

Well I did hear it verbatim straight from the mouth of a fool so I accept your caution - pregnant teeth gnashing the air and all that...

[Zippee]

Thanks to Dockhead for his confident and personal opinions made above, with which I could not more disagree in re almost every claim made.

In my view we did not view the same video. However, since this is not a courtroom, I see no reason to engage, no matter now tempting (and easy). I appreciate all opinions expressed here, and see no reason to respond short of the following:

I should observe though that disagreements and opinions here have long varied greatly from day to day, and further that excess deaths themselves are suspect, as Campbell makes clear. Allow me to close with the suggestion that those who care might watch the video and make up their own minds.

It would be a great error for others to believe me or Dockhead in matters above our paygrades and better left to epidemiological professionals as Dr. Campbell.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Zippee

…….I should observe though that disagreements and opinions here have long varied greatly from day to day, and further that excess deaths themselves are suspect, as Campbell makes clear. Allow me to close with the suggestion that those who care might watch the video and make up their own minds.

It would be a great error for others to believe me or Dockhead in matters above our paygrades and better left to epidemiological professionals as Dr. Campbell.

Opinions have not just varied on CF, they have varied amongst experts and they still do.

Dr John Campbell has produced some excellent videos, but he is not an “epidemiological professional”. He is a nurse.

No signal person has all the answers. Matters are not that clear cut medically. Gather information from a wide range of sources and critically think about all issues with an open mind. eg For another excellent source see the MedCram YouTubes for good overviews.

The other thing to consider is that handling of a pandemic is not purely a medical matter, nor should it be left in the hands of individual “medical advisors” as has been done by several governments when it has suited them. The situation is far more complex than that.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Thanks to Dockhead for his confident and personal opinions made above, with which I could not more disagree in re almost every claim made.. . .

The facts I stated in my post, which should not be controversial, come from the same source as Campbell's video: https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...e-close-to-17m


What exactly do you disagree with?



I said that:


1. Global COVID deaths are greatly understated, as shown by gap between reported deaths and excess deaths.


Campbell says the same thing. Here is the graphic from the source Campbell used, the same source which I quoted myself a few days ago in this very thread:





2. However, they are not significantly understated in North America and Europe. Campbell said the same thing in his video. Here are the graphics:








3. And COVID deaths are even OVERSTATED in some countries; slightly in the UK and greatly in Sweden:








4. Contrast to Russia, where the statistics are faked and the official death count is far less than excess deaths:





How can any of this be controversial? These are basic facts, and all drawn from the same source. You have some problem with any of this?


Campbell does mention that even excess death is not really measuring the extent of the pandemic in countries so undeveloped that they don't record births and deaths. He was talking principally about Africa. This does not concern developed countries where we presume, as Campbell says, that the figures are accurate. Indeed, they are hard to manipulate and there is practically no divergence of standards for recording deaths in demographic figures, so indeed it is a consensus of experts that excess deaths are a very reliable metric, at least in the developed world.


As SWL pointed out, Campbell is not indeed any kind of "pandemic expert". He is a retired nurse; actually his main qualification is just being a YouTube star. I watch his stuff from time to time; most of it is very good, and certainly I don't disagree in the slightest with anything in the present video. But some of it is pretty weak. I don't think he's better qualified than some of the people participating in our discussions on here.

[Montanan]

The title of this thread may need to be extended to read: Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & 2022 & 2023 & 2024 & . . .



https://www.yahoo.com/news/europe-ba...080129171.html

"The World Health Organization warned Thursday about rising COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe. In the past week alone, the Europe region saw 1.8 million new COVID-19 cases and 24,000 deaths, or 59 percent of global cases and nearly half the world's coronavirus deaths. "If we stay on this trajectory, we could see another half a million COVID-19 deaths in Europe and Central Asia by the first of February next year," warned WHO Europe chief Dr. Hans Kluge.

"We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence," Kluge said. "Europe is back at the epicenter of the pandemic — where we were one year ago." Kluge and other public health officials attributed the looming fourth coronavirus wave to low vaccination rates in some areas, the Delta variant's contagiousness, and a relaxation of public mitigation efforts like masking. Kluge said if 95 percent of Europeans just wore masks in public, 188,000 lives could be saved in the next three months."

I received my quadrivalent influenza vaccine earlier this week and will receive a Moderna booster at the end of next week.

Wishing all to stay safe and healthy. All the best.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

The title of this thread may need to be extended to read: Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & 2022 & 2023 & 2024 & . . .



https://www.yahoo.com/news/europe-ba...080129171.html

"The World Health Organization warned Thursday about rising COVID-19 cases and deaths in Europe. In the past week alone, the Europe region saw 1.8 million new COVID-19 cases and 24,000 deaths, or 59 percent of global cases and nearly half the world's coronavirus deaths. "If we stay on this trajectory, we could see another half a million COVID-19 deaths in Europe and Central Asia by the first of February next year," warned WHO Europe chief Dr. Hans Kluge.

"We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence," Kluge said. "Europe is back at the epicenter of the pandemic — where we were one year ago." Kluge and other public health officials attributed the looming fourth coronavirus wave to low vaccination rates in some areas, the Delta variant's contagiousness, and a relaxation of public mitigation efforts like masking. Kluge said if 95 percent of Europeans just wore masks in public, 188,000 lives could be saved in the next three months."

I received my quadrivalent influenza vaccine earlier this week and will receive a Moderna booster at the end of next week.

Wishing all to stay safe and healthy. All the best.

This is old news, which was discussed upthread.


I think it was El Pinguino, who pointed out that this is driven by Eastern Europe, primarily, by Russia, which is having a horrendous outbreak at the moment.



Up here in Northern Europe, we are highly vaccinated and living a lovely normal life with no pandemic restrictions. Yes, we are allowed to hug each other, go to restaurants, get drunk in bars, go to the theatre and concerts, have parties, ride public transport without a mask.



Cases go up and down, and are up at the moment in Denmark and Norway, but practically no one is dying, and hospitals are empty, so we are holding firm.



Vaccination is key. Denmark is at 76% of the whole population fully vaxxed; Finland is 71%. This is very different from the U.S. at only 57% fully vaccinated, and I see Montana trails even the U.S. average at only 51%. As a result death rates are 0.39 in Denmark, 0.45 in Sweden, 0.57 in Norway, compare to 3.57 in the U.S. and 9.2 in Montana, more than 20x the death rate in Sweden today.



As long as a large part of the adult population is unvaccinated, then the pandemic will continue to rage.