Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This is old news, which was discussed upthread.


I think it was El Pinguino, who pointed out that this is driven by Eastern Europe, primarily, by Russia, which is having a horrendous outbreak at the moment.



Up here in Northern Europe, we are highly vaccinated and living a lovely normal life with no pandemic restrictions. Yes, we are allowed to hug each other, go to restaurants, get drunk in bars, go to the theatre and concerts, have parties, ride public transport without a mask.



Cases go up and down, and are up at the moment in Denmark and Norway, but practically no one is dying, and hospitals are empty, so we are holding firm.



Vaccination is key. Denmark is at 76% of the whole population fully vaxxed; Finland is 71%. This is very different from the U.S. at only 57% fully vaccinated, and I see Montana trails even the U.S. average at only 51%. As a result death rates are 0.39 in Denmark, 0.45 in Sweden, 0.57 in Norway, compare to 3.57 in the U.S. and 9.2 in Montana, more than 20x the death rate in Sweden today.



As long as a large part of the adult population is unvaccinated, then the pandemic will continue to rage.

The German news is reporting a big surge in Germany and Latvia seems to be "on fire" with cases (according to the French and US press). Without the raw numbers, it's hard to know just how bad it is. What counts as an "explosion" of cases in one country may be viewed differently in another, but the news I follow seems rather negative on Europe in general at the moment.

On the bright side, Brazil is (finally) doing well. New cases are way down, deaths down to about 200 a day (sad, but an amazing improvement) and vaccinations are going full steam ahead (currently vaccinating children under 16 as all willing adults have been vaccinated). There has been very little vaccine hesitancy here (Brazil has a strong vaccination culture). I hope this is the beginning of the end...

[CatNewBee]

Interesting article in the BMJ about the rigged / error prone vaccine evaluations of the Phizer vaccine and the blind eye of the FDA not acting on reports of misconduct.

I know, little impact, few cases, insignificant errors, vaccines are in general safe, only very few cases with adverse reactions, not vaccine related, high efficacy...

over 500 participants with covid symptoms were not swabbed. 19 : 200 someting cases were only counted to proof efficacy, sideeffects where underreported, ignored, figures massaged, participants unblinded....

And this contractor got 4 further research contracts after this mess was reported from Pfizer for the great outcome of the study.

How can you not thrust big pharma, why should one be concerned at all, nothing to see here, not even reported or played down by the media.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Interesting article in the BMJ about the rigged / error prone vaccine evaluations of the Phizer vaccine and the blind eye of the FDA not acting on reports of misconduct.

I know, little impact, few cases, insignificant errors, vaccines are in general safe, only very few cases with adverse reactions, not vaccine related, high efficacy...

over 500 participants with covid symptoms were not swabbed. 19 : 200 someting cases were only counted to proof efficacy, sideeffects where underreported, ignored, figures massaged, participants unblinded....

And this contractor got 4 further research contracts after this mess was reported from Pfizer for the great outcome of the study.

How can you not thrust big pharma, why should one be concerned at all, nothing to see here, not even reported or played down by the media.

While the issues raised in the BMJ article are serious, you have given a slanted view of it and misattributed where the fault lies. It is about a private research organization (Ventavia Research Group) lab in Texas contracted to research the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It is not about "Big Pharm".

Whatever, provide a citation/link when you make such claims.

Here it is:
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

While the issues raised in the BMJ article are serious, you have given a slanted view of it and misattributed where the fault lies. It is about a private research organization (Ventavia Research Group) lab in Texas contracted to research the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It is not about "Big Pharm".

Whatever, provide a citation/link when you make such claims.

Here it is:
https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635

Pfizer is big pharma, that used that subcontractor in the past, was informed about the issues, but not reported to the FDA, the FDA was informed, but did also not investigate audit this company, instead they did other 2 or 3.

The subcontractor was rewarded for this "right outcome" of the figures with 4 other studies, that again lead to further recommendations of vaccinations of minors, children, pregnant woman by the FDA without addressing the problems. (well, not true, they fired the whistleblower and punished the staff, that spoke out).

It is big pharma, FDA and subcontractors that produce the desired results and supress real figures along with the media. This is a scandal.

[goboatingnow]

Greece has now made life very unpleasant for the un-vaccinated , everything other then food shops and pharmacies now require you to produce a scannable vaccine cert , this includes sit down outdoor dining and drinking , to enter the establishment , basically if you are not vaccinated you can buy food and drugs !!!

Big increase in fines to €5000 for establishments having un-vaccinated on their premises ( or sitting outside )

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Greece has now made life very unpleasant for the un-vaccinated , everything other then food shops and pharmacies now require you to produce a scannable vaccine cert , this includes sit down outdoor dining and drinking , to enter the establishment , basically if you are not vaccinated you can buy food and drugs !!!

Big increase in fines to €5000 for establishments having un-vaccinated on their premises ( or sitting outside )

Vaccinated, recovered, OR tested -- according to the EU reccomendations -- not just vaxxed, right?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

The German news is reporting a big surge in Germany and Latvia seems to be "on fire" with cases (according to the French and US press). Without the raw numbers, it's hard to know just how bad it is. What counts as an "explosion" of cases in one country may be viewed differently in another, but the news I follow seems rather negative on Europe in general at the moment.. . .

There are good numbers on OurWorldinData, https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus, and a few other places. Western and Northern European data is of high quality.


Things are not bad in Western, Southern, Northern Europe -- just Eastern Europe is really struggling. Excluding Eastern Europe, the worst outbreaks are in Estonia and Latvia, but Latvia (from where I am writing this, incidentally) being "on fire" is also old news, discussed upthread, and cases have already come way down.



EU overall death rate is under 3 per million. In the Nordic countries, it's under 1, and Germany is only 1.35. UK is only 2.5. Compare to the U.S. which despite greatly reduced case rates, still has death rate of 3.6.


Europe, other than Eastern Europe, is doing OK so far. The key, as I said, is vaccination. EU as a whole has reached 66% of the whole population (not just over 16's) fully vaccinated, and booster shots are being given. Northern and Western Europe is well above this, with 80% in Spain fully vaccinated, 76% in Denmark, 72% in Italy, 70% in Finland, etc. This makes it possible to keep society fully open in most of these places. With only 58% fully vaccinated in Brazil, your situation is closer to the U.S. or Latvia, with similar vaccination rates, which is low enough that you are still vulnerable to big waves of infection like what swept Latvia recently. I do see your daily vaccine doses as of Friday were 0.4 per 100 population, which is pretty good. If you can keep that up, you'll get to a decent level of vaccination in another month and a half or so.



Although -- you may have enough extra natural immunity in the population that you may already be protected. You've had almost 3000 deaths per million (!!), and up to 3500 per million of excess death. That's more than 10x more than what we've experienced in Northern Europe, and exceeds anything anywhere in Europe, so a far larger proportion of society will have been infected and recovered, and should be immune. Add that to a 58% vaccination rate, and you might be ok, but you've certainly paid the price for that immunity.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Vaccinated, recovered, OR tested -- according to the EU reccomendations -- not just vaxxed, right?

Yes that’s it

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Yes that’s it

I see Greece is having quite a surge of cases; up to 567 as of yesterday, death rate nearly 5. Bummer. Despite not all that terrible vaccination rate of 62%. Perhaps not a very good sign for the rest of us.

[Zippee]

Re: Dr. John Campbell, PhD, multiple degrees. Campbell is well regarded, well connected and professionally respected, especially in the UK. He tends to stick to the facts, and present them in a neutral and non-opinionated manner, which I much appreciate. Currently well over a million followers, plus millions more non-subscribers. Rightfully so. I also hear he's a better sailor than most of us, lol...

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[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Re: Dr. John Campbell, PhD, multiple degrees. Campbell is well regarded, well connected and professionally respected, especially in the UK. He tends to stick to the facts, and present them in a neutral and non-opinionated manner, which I much appreciate. Currently well over a million followers, plus millions more non-subscribers. Rightfully so. I also hear he's a better sailor than most of us, lol...

Campbell's PhD is in remote training for nurses. This expertise was no doubt very useful for him in becoming a YouTube star. I do like his presentation style, which is factual and pleasant, and what he mostly does is to bring to the broad masses what is being written in the scientific literature, which is really useful. Campbell knows little about epidemiology, however, and when he does venture into giving his own opinions, he often gets it wrong. In summer of 2020, for example, he got caught up in the irrational and uninformed fervour about Sweden, and made a number of bold predictions about cases soon exploding in Sweden, when in fact the next day cases started falling sharply, and fell for months after that, proving him completely wrong. As far as I know, he never retracted or explained those positions. Another big gaffe of Campbell's was to uncritically repeat reports about scientific studies confirming the therapeutic value of Ivermectin, although it was ALREADY known at the time that those studies were manipulated or wrong. He became a fan of Invermectin and was much quoted in the wacko anti-vax social media. Here is what Campbell missed on the Invermectin story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58170809.amp

I have enjoyed many of Campbell's videos, but Campbell is by no means the sharpest tack in the box, and watching those videos is no substitute for reading actual scientific literature and thinking critically for oneself. YouTube altogether is not the place to gain knowledge of any depth, in whatever subject; YouTube stars should not be confused with actual experts.

[Dockhead]

Somewhat good news from Norther Europe today -- the vicious outbreaks in Latvia and Estonia are subsiding sharply.



Thank God for that. Latvia reimposed a bunch of measures including a 20:00 -- 05:00 curfew and closing restaurants, bars, and most shops. Ugh. Estonia did not resort to that. In any case, it seems to be going the right way now. A silver lining in this was that the outbreaks seem to have inspired more Latvians and Estonians to get vaccinated; vaccination rates are up sharly.

Death rates are high in Latvia and Estonia, but should fall with a two week lag from the fall in cases. Hospitals are pretty full, too -- this is not over yet, but at least going the right way.









From these figures we can see that Denmark is also having a fairly high rate of infection, actually the highest infection rate for Denmark so far in 2021. But with their high vaccination rate, almost no one is dying, and very few people are in hospital. Nevertheless, the authorities are concerned, and are considering reimposing covid pass requirements to get into different public places, and reimposing masking requirements. A big cluster of the new infections is taking place in the Western suburbs of Copenhagen, where most of the country's immigrants live, and who have much lower vaccination rates than the rest of the country. See: https://cphpost.dk/?p=129200 That would be a sad step back from the declared total end of pandemic measures, but might be necessary.



Situation in FInland and Sweden is fine.

[goboatingnow]

There is considerable concern on Ireland at the moment

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

There is considerable concern on Ireland at the moment

I wouldn't say it looks so bad in Ireland so far.


Death rate in Ireland is 1.6, which is 3x higher than Sweden and more than 2x Denmark, but this is not a high death rate, not enough to bump excess death figures. And death rates are not increasing; they are actually down since the beginning of the month.



Hospitalizations at 100 per million but not rising at all.


Ireland has an excellent vaccination rate with more than 75% of the entire population fully vaxxed, almost as high as Denmark.


I would think you should be OK. Touch wood. Infection rate is quite high and increasing, but when you're so well vaccinated this doesn't seem to lead to any real disaster. I imagine that the overwhelming majority of new infections is among young people now. Are they considering reimposing measures?

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Campbell's PhD is in remote training for nurses. This expertise was no doubt very useful for him in becoming a YouTube star. I do like his presentation style, which is factual and pleasant, and what he mostly does is to bring to the broad masses what is being written in the scientific literature, which is really useful. Campbell knows little about epidemiology, however, and when he does venture into giving his own opinions, he often gets it wrong. In summer of 2020, for example, he got caught up in the irrational and uninformed fervour about Sweden, and made a number of bold predictions about cases soon exploding in Sweden, when in fact the next day cases started falling sharply, and fell for months after that, proving him completely wrong. As far as I know, he never retracted or explained those positions. Another big gaffe of Campbell's was to uncritically repeat reports about scientific studies confirming the therapeutic value of Ivermectin, although it was ALREADY known at the time that those studies were manipulated or wrong. He became a fan of Invermectin and was much quoted in the wacko anti-vax social media. Here is what Campbell missed on the Invermectin story: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58170809.amp

I have enjoyed many of Campbell's videos, but Campbell is by no means the sharpest tack in the box, and watching those videos is no substitute for reading actual scientific literature and thinking critically for oneself. YouTube altogether is not the place to gain knowledge of any depth, in whatever subject; YouTube stars should not be confused with actual experts.

And your qualifications in epidemiology that enable you to make such observations are what exactly?

What that BBC piece misses is where the Ivermectin non sense started.

The qualifications of the person who wrote the paper that started all this?

'Dr. Kylie M, Ph.D, is a National Breast Cancer Foundation Career Development Fellow within the Department of Biochemistry and Mol. Biology, at Monash University (Clayton, Melbourne, Australia) and Head of the Cancer Targeting and Nuclear Therapeutics Laboratory. She got her B.Biomed.Sci.and her Ph.D.in Biochemistry at Monash University (Melbourne). Her research over the last 18 years has focused on the regulation of transport into and out of the eukaryotic cell nucleus, and how this relates to viral disease, cancer and development. She has c. 40 peer-reviewed publications (>1,000 citations; H-factor of 18). Her awards and prizes include National Breast Cancer Foundation, Career Development Fellowship(2017), the International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology (IUBMB) Young Scientist Program Prize (2009) and the Caroline Chisholm award for service (2015).'

She should know what she is talking about, eh? Pity she jumped the gun.

This from Monash in April last year
https://www.monash.edu/discovery-ins...ls-in-48-hours