Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

There are only two purposes of lockdowns -- eradicating the disease, as is the tactic in New Zealand, or flattening the curve so that the pandemic does not progress so far as to overwhelm health care systems.


Very few countries consider eradication to be possible, so almost all countries accept that more or less everyone will be infected within the next few months, certainly long before a vaccine is perfected and distributed.


So although Denmark has a death rate 1/3 of Sweden's, the Danes do not claim that fewer people will die in Denmark -- just that they will die over a longer period of time.


Sweden's policy has clearly succeeded SO FAR. The death rate is high only if you cherry pick the comparisons; in general it's about average for Northern and Western Europe and is far lower than locked down tight UK (264 vs 414) or locked down tight France (264 vs 379), not to mention Spain, Italy, etc. In fact the Swedish death rate is about the same as Ireland's, a country which has been praised for handling the crisis well. And Sweden's death rate may be overstated by as much as 2x compared to other European countries as Sweden counts deaths outside of hospitals and deaths were COVID-19 is only suspected.


The key fact is that the health care system is very far from being overwhelmed -- about half of ICU beds are empty in Sweden and the case rate is flat or falling. That's the whole measure of whether the policy works or not, if you are not going for eradication, and not on European country is doing that.



We still don't know what this all looks like in the long term, because this is a very complicated phenomenon and it is still early days. Many European countries are now trying to figure out how to get out of lockdown without an explosion of cases. In Poland the lifting keeps getting delayed; yet nothing there has been accomplished since the epidemic barely got started and will just rock and roll when the draconian lockdown is lifted. And the country can't afford any more lockdown -- it shot it's wad already. This does not look like good policy. Sweden, on the other hand, can maintain its current measures basically forever -- and sustainability of the measures was forefront in the thinking of the health ministry from the beginning. This is looking more and more like a smart move, compared to locking down willy nilly without figuring out what the end game is, as seems to have happened in Poland. Poland will have no choice but to open up, and with the economy already in a shambles, will have no further resources available to control the spread, whereas Sweden can tighten or loosen as they like.


When you think about whether a country's policies were successful or not, measure them against their stated purpose. If it's flattening the curve, rather than eradication, then over-fulfilling the goal by slowing down the spread too much may be counter-productive -- may make the pandemic last for months or years rather than getting it over with, and without saving any lives over the long term.

There's a big risk considering the uncertainty of immunity afterwards, if there will be some and how long it lasts. No one either knows if the next wave will be more leathal or just another flue. What makes me wonder why the South-Korean and Taiwanese approaches are so unpopular here in western countries as it's propably the cheapest solution on a along run both economically and saving lives..

[stevensuf]

Well if there is no long term immunity or vaccine, then eradication must be the priority or we accept a vastly reduced lifespan.

[tp12]

Exposing your population to the virus without understanding how immunity post infection might work is a not a good move. Doing it based on creating herd immunity looks to be a serious miscalculation with the understanding that people are being reinfected. Considering also that some infected people who are lucky enough not to die are showing permanent lung and, in some cases, brain damage lends weight to a bad choice.

We'll see more on this as more studies are completed. As for comparing countries - it's best to compare against neighbour countries with similar cultures, location etc. Sweden is getting absolutely smashed by that metric. It's spin to suggest it's doing well despite the significant numbers of deaths they've had relative to their neighbours. It beggars belief.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by stevensuf

Well if there is no long term immunity or vaccine, then eradication must be the priority or we accept a vastly reduced lifespan.

Not quite if the disease remains the same. The most propable victims die during the first wave and when second wave comes there's healthier and younger population taking the hit. Thus less victims afterwards.
Looking the bright side a shortage of older males so no cruiser doesn't have to sail solo..

[Jonte]

The R-number in Sweden has been under 1.0 since 21st of April. The experts says thats a good thing. The number indicates if the number of infected rise or fall (I think). So the plans for sailing continues[emoji4]

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Jonte

The R-number in Sweden has been under 1.0 since 21st of April. The experts says thats a good thing. The number indicates if the number of infected rise or fall (I think). So the plans for sailing continues[emoji4]

Simply put, an R of 1.0 means the number of people infected stays constant. Less than 1.0, the numbers decrease. More than one, the numbers increase.

Less than 1.0 is good!

[Jonte]

OK thanks. I think it was 0.85 something.

[tp12]

How does an 'R number' translate to 22,317 infections, 2,679 deaths, tracking terribly against their nordic neighbours, the graphs showing no peak in infection rate or death rate and 10th in the global death rate leaderboard?


Data from here - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Have a look at the infections and deaths graphs on this page - https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

[Jonte]

Originally Posted by tp12

How does an 'R number' translate to 22,317 infections, 2,679 deaths, tracking terribly against their nordic neighbours, the graphs showing no peak in infection rate or death rate and 10th in the global death rate leaderboard?


Data from here - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I think it's indicate the rate of infected not already infected or dead.

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Jonte

I think it's indicate the rate of infected not already infected or dead.

Where does the R number come from? If it means infections or deaths are slowing that doesn't appear to be reflected in the worldometers data/graphs - so must be another source.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by tp12

How does an 'R number' translate to 22,317 infections, 2,679 deaths, tracking terribly against their nordic neighbours, the graphs showing no peak in infection rate or death rate and 10th in the global death rate leaderboard?


Data from here - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Have a look at the infections and deaths graphs on this page - https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

Probably because the R was very high sometime back. It is a dynamic number and changes as infectious transfer rates change.

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Probably because the R was very high sometime back. It is a dynamic number and changes as infectious transfer rates change.

I think we're seeing a case of disparate data. The worldometers site is still showing a steady upwards trend in the rate of both deaths and infections for Sweden which would indicate an R value >1

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by tp12

Where does the R number come from? If it means infections or deaths are slowing that doesn't appear to be reflected in the worldometers data/graphs - so must be another source.

I don't know who generates the R number but is essence it tells us the number of people who will be infected by each infectious person.

If every infectious person inflect two others, then R=2 (simplified explanation).

When R=1, the number of cases remain constant forever.

EDIT: there is a time delay but I'm not smart enough to explain how it works!

[Jonte]

The grafik over intensive care has been flat for a little while and slowly going down. We can only hope it continues. I can not copy from the news Ian sorry.

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I don't know who generates the R number but is essence it tells us the number of people who will be infected by each infectious person.

If every infectious person inflect two others, then R=2 (simplified explanation).

When R=1, the number of cases remain constant forever.

So it's really an exponent. In which case an R of 1 means the rate of infection is linear. Not that the number of cases remain constant. They'll grow at a consistent rate.


This is indicating that it still isn't under control.