Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by boatman61

North or South crossing.???

Opps.. Just seen your trip so up to the Azores then down to the Canaries.???

Yup, not much choice..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Only sat phone to get weather grids and txt. That's the only long range coms. VHF of course. Not confirmed yet but it's 1st mate duty for me, free ride plus airline tickets, Le Marin - Las Palmas..

Ah, too bad. Wish you a good crossing in any case!

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Excess deaths in UK, like in most of Western and Northern Europe, are very close to official covid deaths, except Nordic countries which have LESS excess death than official covid deaths.

There is no such thing as perfect statistics, but in much of Europe they are pretty darned good.

North American excess death also lines up well with official covid deaths.

You can read about excess death statistics in Ourworldindata, Euromomo, Financial Times, and Economist, all of which have good trackers and charts, and good articles.

The ONS ( Office for National Statistics) seems to disagree about that.

" Latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show a “devastating surge” of around 20,800 additional deaths in England and Wales in the past four months compared with the average for the same period in the five years up to 2019,"

Full article with link to ONS data: https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/scien...eaths-increase

[Zippee]

"Omicron seems to be the way out of the vaccine mandate terror for many young people, at least in countries recognizing the science of natural immunity after infection. This seems the better option with mild symptoms, as it gives way better and broader long term rotection than the vaccines that focus on a specific spike shape."

There is no source whatever for this whatever; quite the opposite. Apart from being what amounts to a brand new virus, that is exponentially infective, and can reinfect, the early data states that this almost propagandic notion of "natural immunity" fails completely - indeed lack of vaccination and "natural immunity" are both counterproductive in terms of the exponential Omicron. To the contrary, children are being especially affected - like never before - with Omicron.



Let's abandon these politics and polemics and listen to some science:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ml9kYeOPeg

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Zippee

There is no source whatever for this whatever; quite the opposite. Apart from being what amounts to a brand new virus, that is exponentially infective, and can reinfect, the early data states that this almost propagandic notion of "natural immunity" fails completely - indeed lack of vaccination and "natural immunity" are both counterproductive in terms of the exponential Omicron. To the contrary, children are being especially affected - like never before - with Omicron.



Let's abandon these politics and polemics and listen to some science:

Natural immunity is science, not propaganda. You get it from a previous infection.

And there is also cross-immunity from infections with similar viruses, and even inherited immunity from infections of your ancestors.

The vaccines simulate a infection, your natural immune system fights the virus in any case, regardless how you obtain the information, and if there is none, it learns to fight the new thread itself - just like it learns to fight the jab.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

There is no source whatever for this whatever; quite the opposite. Apart from being what amounts to a brand new virus, that is exponentially infective, and can reinfect, the early data states that this almost propagandic notion of "natural immunity" fails completely - indeed lack of vaccination and "natural immunity" are both counterproductive in terms of the exponential Omicron. To the contrary, children are being especially affected - like never before - with Omicron.



Let's abandon these politics and polemics and listen to some science:

What politics? You seem to be hearing what you apparently want to hear out of this video but not what it actually says. It basically confirms current, albeit early predictions that Omicron will become dominant by being more contagious than Delta, but (hopefully) cause less severe illness and therefore render the virus less lethal. Campbell acknowledges the latter @11:30 and again @15:00.

The bad but hardly surprising news from the S. African study he cites is that natural immunity to Omicron from people who have recovered from earlier variants -- mainly Delta presumably -- is not 100%, with the study showing 84% instead. Not yet known, but another expert he cites says this lowered immunity is also probably the case with the vaccinated population as well. But as he also acknowledges in the vid, this is a pandemic's path to becoming endemic, with more contagious but less lethal variants replacing earlier versions. With the help of vaccinations constantly tweaked to deal with these new variants, more & more people becoming infected but recovering helps confer immunity to ever-increasing numbers of people.

Like all the experts at this point, however, Campbell doesn't have enough evidence to say any of this conclusively, and no responsible expert would. But neither are they saying that Omicron is a "brand new virus," that natural immunity "fails completely," or that natural immunity and lack of vaccination "are both counterproductive" as you have asserted in the bolded parts above. Instead, the experts are cautioning prudence but not panic until more data becomes known and is analyzed.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Ah, too bad. Wish you a good crossing in any case!

Thanks! So you're also on a crossing?

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Natural immunity is science, not propaganda. You get it from a previous infection.

And there is also cross-immunity from infections with similar viruses, and even inherited immunity from infections of your ancestors.

The vaccines simulate a infection, your natural immune system fights the virus in any case, regardless how you obtain the information, and if there is none, it learns to fight the new thread itself - just like it learns to fight the jab.

Try listening to the science first. Did you even bother? I think not. Repeating the same claims achieves nothing, and for me, seems unnecessarily argumentative. I'm not gonna hold your hand here - you have the link, and if you listen you'll learn now the lack of vaccination and/or previous infection are counterproductive. If not, you have my permission to cry "wolf" again...


So sorry (not really) but the new data does not at all support any of the claimed fun "facts" made by you...

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Exile

What politics? You seem to be hearing what you apparently want to hear out of this video but not what it actually says. It basically confirms current, albeit early predictions that Omicron will become dominant by being more contagious than Delta, but (hopefully) cause less severe illness and therefore render the virus less lethal. Campbell acknowledges the latter @11:30 and again @15:00.

The bad but hardly surprising news from the S. African study he cites is that natural immunity to Omicron from people who have recovered from earlier variants -- mainly Delta presumably -- is not 100%, with the study showing 84% instead. Not yet known, but another expert he cites says this lowered immunity is also probably the case with the vaccinated population as well. But as he also acknowledges in the vid, this is a pandemic's path to becoming endemic, with more contagious but less lethal variants replacing earlier versions. With the help of vaccinations constantly tweaked to deal with these new variants, more & more people becoming infected but recovering helps confer immunity to ever-increasing numbers of people.

Like all the experts at this point, however, Campbell doesn't have enough evidence to say any of this conclusively, and no responsible expert would. But neither are they saying that Omicron is a "brand new virus," that natural immunity "fails completely," or that natural immunity and lack of vaccination "are both counterproductive" as you have asserted in the bolded parts above. Instead, the experts are cautioning prudence but not panic until more data becomes known and is analyzed.

This is a gross miscitation and misrepresentation of the science and even the numbers as summarized by Campbell. I find this argumentative and not informative or productive. It's a shame that we can predict interpretation depending on the poster. Repetitive denial and misstatement is not terribly impressive - as will soon become apparent in the next few weeks. Again, I'm not into hand holding and leading you to the actual time quotes and sections of this scientist's review of data. Had you asked nicely and with an open mind...

That's your job...

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

This is a gross miscitation and misrepresentation of the science and even the numbers as summarized by Campbell. I find this argumentative and not informative or productive. It's a shame that we can predict interpretation depending on the poster. Repetitive denial and misstatement is not terribly impressive - as will soon become apparent in the next few weeks. Again, I'm not into holding your hand and leading you to the actual time quotes and sections. That's your job...

Much more productive for the sake of the discussion if you can point to where I've misspoken or misrepresented Campbell. I've been mistaken before and certainly don't want to leave any errors out there unchallenged. That's what a good, objective discussion amongst lay people should be about after all. All too easy to throw barbs at individual posters but this is no substitute for a healthy exchange of information, especially if you have good cause to correct misstatements.

[goboatingnow]

In other Northern European news Ireland is Re introducing some restrictions including limits on indoor functions , dining etc.

The CMO believes cases have stabilised at far too high a level

2022 looks like a 2021 rerun

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Thanks! So you're also on a crossing?

Indeed. We're moving my friend's Discovery 67 to Palma over Christmas, then early January crossing over to St. Lucia or Antigua. Great way to spend the darkest part of winter. And the prospect of racing in Antigua in the spring.



Although . . . it's shaping up to be a real winter here for a change. -20 on Thursday! The sea is already frozen! Oh, happy days. A proper winter for sauna and rolling naked in the snow and drinking a lot of Napue, cranberries, juniper, and tonic whilst sitting by the roaring fire. Cross country skiing in the brilliant sunshine on the morn. Joys of the Nordic winter. I do love it here in the winter.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Exile

Much more productive for the sake of the discussion if you can point to where I've misspoken or misrepresented Campbell. I've been mistaken before and certainly don't want to leave any errors out there unchallenged. That's what a good, objective discussion amongst lay people should be about after all. All too easy to throw barbs at individual posters but this is no substitute for a healthy exchange of information, especially if you have good cause to correct misstatements.

Standard procedure by a few...
Rant and Swerve..

[Exile]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Standard procedure by a few...
Rant and Swerve..

Or Rant and Bail perhaps. Don't think I'm going beyond what the experts are saying thus far, or being unrealistically rosy. Optimistic perhaps, but hopefully not unduly so. Heck, even the much-maligned Fauci advised there was no cause to panic! Could all change at any time it seems, and the expert advice would undoubtedly change accordingly. That all these Euro countries are reimposing restrictions is concerning, however. Do they know something we don't? If not, then what's all the angst on these threads about??

[Montanan]

A corporate Christmas party in Norway turned into an Omicron "super spreader event," with up to 60 people possibly infected,

https://news.yahoo.com/corporate-chr...132307836.html

The outbreak has become the biggest outside of South Africa, where researchers first detected the new coronavirus variant. "This party has been a super spreader event," . . . "Our working hypothesis is that at least half of the 120 participants were infected with the Omicron variant during the party. This makes this, for now, the largest Omicron outbreak outside South Africa."

The party on November 26 was organized by renewable energy company Scatec, which also has operations in South Africa. At least one person who attended the party had recently returned from South Africa . . .

All attendees were fully vaccinated and had tested negative before the event. Fifty people who attended the party had positive PCR tests for coronavirus, while another ten have tested positive on lateral flow tests . . .

After sequencing, health authorities have confirmed that 13 of the cases were the Omicron variant, and more are expected to be confirmed. "It is still too early to say whether the clinical picture of the disease is different in Omicron infections than in Delta infections," . . .
"None of the patients has severe symptoms; none is hospitalized. However, this is not unexpected given the young age of the participants."