Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Zippee

It's seems to be a given that the northern countries were long predicted to have winter increases, some combination of holidays, influenza etc., and that seems to be the pattern everywhere. With a R=2.5 and a record of doubling every 2 to 3 days, wherever Omicron exists you can be sure the numbers will be absolutely exponential.

With Omicron the question seems to be not if, but when and how serious. There have been many reports of community infection in people who have not traveled. The nightclub example in Norway where 2 people infected 120 seems quite example enough of what we all - vaccinated or not - will face - no matter where we live. We can also safely assume that the mildness of most of the cases means that many cases have likely been missed and transitioned at home.

If this helps in defining Denmark, perhaps this somewhat dated article may answer your question...

Thanks, those are useful.

So I guess what we know is that although Omicron is still a small percentage of cases in Denmark -- 4% or 5% so far -- they are increasing so fast that they wll soon be a majority of cases.

I think though that this shows that the present spike is still mostly Delta -- which is a bit "yikes", since the sky-high infection rate might be just the beginning, after Omicron turbocharges it.

However, even the spike of Delta cases has not burdened Danish hospitals so -- so far so good. If Omicron pushses out Delta as Delta pushed out the other variants before it, and, IF as it STILL looks, Omicron is less fatal, then this will be really good.

But perhaps people aren't dying and hospitals aren't burdened simply because Denmark has enough combined immunity from super high vaccination rate plus the most infections of any Nordic country except Sweden, to stop this wave from being all that destructive, not matter what variant is involved.

Even fewer people are dying or in hospital in Sweden, than in Denmark, despite somewhat lower vaccination rate (still above EU average and climbing however). Is that the effect of more natural immunity? I think that's fairly logical. We'll see if the wave ends up smacking Sweden, which has almost completely missed it so far. Or whether there is enough immunity to hold it off. We shall see.

I am more worried about Finland, with similar vaccination rate to Sweden but much less natural immunity. Finland might actually be the real testing ground for what Omicron does with a fairly vulnerable population.

[laird]

Boris Johnson is giving an update on BBC news tonight at 8pm , beginning to look like Christmas is getting cancelled

[goboatingnow]

It will be over by 2025 I reckon

[goboatingnow]

The public Health policy of preventing infection will be a failure as it seems the vaccines are essentially temporary. I’m now of the opinion you vaccinate everyone then let everyone catch the disease on the basis they will not get “ too “ sick. This will then raise the natural immunity. Wrapping everyone up in cotton wool is beginning to look both self defeating and the collateral mental damage and social interaction issues are more damaging. I am seeing people forming the view they will never socialise in large groups again ever.

[laird]

The gist of the BBC announcement is that the UK is going to try and have everyone over the age of 18 given a booster be for the end of this year ,the previous target was the end of January

That equates to about one million doses of vaccine administered each day ,looks like the military are getting involved

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The public Health policy of preventing infection will be a failure as it seems the vaccines are essentially temporary. I’m now of the opinion you vaccinate everyone then let everyone catch the disease on the basis they will not get “ too “ sick. This will then raise the natural immunity. Wrapping everyone up in cotton wool is beginning to look both self defeating and the collateral mental damage and social interaction issues are more damaging. I am seeing people forming the view they will never socialise in large groups again ever.

While it's possible you are right the problem is too many people are doing whatever they please. There's no possibility for any strategy to work as long as there's no common one. One group will not wear masks, other one doesn't take the vaccination, one doesn't keep the distances, one not going to test, one going to work or whatever when sick.. Freedom and free will kiss my a$$

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The public Health policy of preventing infection will be a failure as it seems the vaccines are essentially temporary. I’m now of the opinion you vaccinate everyone then let everyone catch the disease on the basis they will not get “ too “ sick. This will then raise the natural immunity. Wrapping everyone up in cotton wool is beginning to look both self defeating and the collateral mental damage and social interaction issues are more damaging. I am seeing people forming the view they will never socialise in large groups again ever.

It's interesting how views evolve.


My views have also evolved significanctly during this event.


What you're saying now is quite parallel to the Great Barrington Declaration.



A lot of the world was focussed on supressing the spread of infection at any cost, without even calculating the cost, and without really understanding why. The cost of our NPI's has been huge, especially for the young and for tbe socially disadvantaged. Worth it or not -- the answer might be different in different countries, but it's wrong to just ignore the cost.

But of course vaccination is a total game-changer, and what we didn't have, when the Great Barrington Declaration was being debated. It's a lot harder to make a case for harsh NPIs when all vulnerable people are vaccinated or coud have been.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by laird

The gist of the BBC announcement is that the UK is going to try and have everyone over the age of 18 given a booster be for the end of this year ,the previous target was the end of January

That equates to about one million doses of vaccine administered each day ,looks like the military are getting involved

Yes, but it can be done. The UK showed the way earlier in the year. Sounds like an excellent policy

[Montanan]

The U.K. Health Security Agency says existing vaccines appear less effective in preventing symptomatic infections in people exposed to omicron, though preliminary data show that effectiveness appears to rise to between 70% and 75% after a third vaccine dose.

More than 80% of people age 12 and up in Britain have received two doses of vaccine, and 40% of adults have had three doses. Giving the rest a booster in the next three weeks, by year end, will be a huge challenge, requiring almost 1 million doses delivered a day. Johnson acknowledged that many routine medical procedures would have to be postponed to meet the goal.

The PM announced a “national mission” to deliver booster vaccines, with pop-up vaccination centers and seven-day-a-week getting extra support from teams of military planners and thousands of volunteer vaccinators. Johnson’s Dec. 31 target applies to England. The other parts of the U.K. — Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — are also expected to speed up their vaccination campaigns. The previous target was the end of January.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

Stay safe, stay healthy.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

The U.K. Health Security Agency says existing vaccines appear less effective in preventing symptomatic infections in people exposed to omicron, though preliminary data show that effectiveness appears to rise to between 70% and 75% after a third vaccine dose.

More than 80% of people age 12 and up in Britain have received two doses of vaccine, and 40% of adults have had three doses. Giving the rest a booster in the next three weeks, by year end, will be a huge challenge, requiring almost 1 million doses delivered a day. Johnson acknowledged that many routine medical procedures would have to be postponed to meet the goal.

The PM announced a “national mission” to deliver booster vaccines, with pop-up vaccination centers and seven-day-a-week getting extra support from teams of military planners and thousands of volunteer vaccinators. Johnson’s Dec. 31 target applies to England. The other parts of the U.K. — Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — are also expected to speed up their vaccination campaigns. The previous target was the end of January.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

Stay safe, stay healthy.

A million doses a day in the UK with population of 68 million is almost 1.5 per 100 people, more than double the current rate, and a rate never achieved in the UK so far despite the excellent vaccine rollout in the spring. Denmark and Israel are the only countries I know that ever broke 1.5, and even those only achieved that briefly. So I'm guessing this might be a bit unrealistic, but it won't be a tragedy if it takes four or five weeks instead of three. Death rate and hospital situation is still very good in the UK.

[Greg K]

Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch discusses the failure of Covid 19 public health policy in the last two years. Very much worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXAi_ABL3pE&t=3s

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch discusses the failure of Covid 19 public health policy in the last two years. Very much worth a watch.

YSPH professor criticized for promoting unproven drug to treat COVID-19

Yale School of Public Health professor Harvey Risch has been a vocal supporter of the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, despite a lack of scientific evidence that it works.

In a statement [1] released on Aug. 4, members of the Yale scientific and medical community voiced concern over Risch’s ardent advocacy of hydroxychloroquine. It is signed by more than 20 Yale faculty members.

More about ➥ https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2020/...reat-covid-19/

[1] “Statement from Yale Faculty on Hydroxychloroquine and its Use in COVID-19"
“As his colleagues, we defend the right of Dr. Risch, a respected cancer epidemiologist, to voice his opinions,” the letter states. “But he is not an expert in infectious disease epidemiology and he has not been swayed by the body of scientific evidence from rigorously conducted clinical trials, which refute the plausibility of his belief and arguments.”
The statement also expresses concern about the safety of patients and “the coherence of our national COVID-19 emergency response,” in the midst of misinformation being disseminated by people like Risch when there exists clear contrary evidence.
➥ https://medium.com/@gregggonsalves/s...9-47d0dee7b2b0

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by GordMay

YSPH professor criticized for promoting unproven drug to treat COVID-19

Yale School of Public Health professor Harvey Risch has been a vocal supporter of the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19, despite a lack of scientific evidence that it works.

In a statement [1] released on Aug. 4, members of the Yale scientific and medical community voiced concern over Risch’s ardent advocacy of hydroxychloroquine. It is signed by more than 20 Yale faculty members.

More about ➥ https://yaledailynews.com/blog/2020/...reat-covid-19/

Yeah, why listen to what this Yale scientist has to say and make up your own mind when young Miss Zimmer has clearly warned you in what looks to be a local paper hit-piece that it's not worth your bother.

Thanks for sharing that Gord. Just think of how many lives you've saved from this dangerous disinformation


"Charlotte Zimmer currently serves as the Science and Technology editor and previously covered science news at Yale as a staff reporter. Originally from the small town of Guilford, CT, she is majoring in economics."

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Yeah, why listen to what this Yale scientist has to say and make up your own mind when young Miss Zimmer has clearly warned you in what looks to be a local paper hit-piece that it's not worth your bother.

Thanks for sharing that Gord. Just think of how many lives you've saved from this dangerous disinformation


"Charlotte Zimmer currently serves as the Science and Technology editor and previously covered science news at Yale as a staff reporter. Originally from the small town of Guilford, CT, she is majoring in economics."

Just watching the first two minutes comes the first lie from mr Risch about Covid being dangerous only for old and/or with health issues.. no need to watch further..

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Just watching the first two minutes comes the first lie from mr Risch about Covid being dangerous only for old and/or with health issues.. no need to watch further..

To be accurate, Risch stated " by and large" not "ONLY", which most reasonable people would agree with. But, go ahead, don't watch further if it upsets you to hear a reasoned opinion different from your own.