Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

A new model predicts a "drastic spike" in cases in Norway and Denmark:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/13/h...rk-norway.html

The current waves of infection in those countries, driven almost entirely by Delta, are producing the highest daily infection rates ever in either country. In a matter of days, according to the model, Omicron will become the dominant variant and will drive these rates even much higher.

Yikes.

However -- death rates are low and not increasing, despite the spike in cases.







Nor is there any significant increase in hospitalizations. So if Omicron is really milder, then maybe not "yikes"? I guess we shall see.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

So if you are allowed to go to a bar, which isn't closed, but you can't drink alcohol there, does that mean there is nowhere to go? Matter of perspective I guess. I know some people who would consider that "lockdown"

If we use "lockdown" as it's defined in the dictionary, then then measures in Norway are certainly not lockdown. Snip.

You can use whatever dictionary you like but this is what the Norwegian PM has said about it.
'“There is no doubt – the new variant changes the rules. That’s why we need to act fast and we need to act again,” Stoere told a news conference. “For many this will feel like a lockdown, if not of society then of their lives and of their livelihoods.”'

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.
https://www.fijitimes.com/norway-in-...rules-pm-says/

All sales of alcohol in bars and restaurants are banned. A maximum of 10 people can gather in a private home, but if social distancing is maintained (minimum 1 meter), up to 20 people is allowed during Christmas and New Years’ celebrations.

'In practice, this means most bars and nightclubs will have to shut down for the period the new stricter rules are obligatory. For now, the government says that period will last for a month, until January 14th.'

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/co...covid-lockdown

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

You can use whatever dictionary you like but this is what the Norwegian PM has said about it.
'“There is no doubt – the new variant changes the rules. That’s why we need to act fast and we need to act again,” Stoere told a news conference. “For many this will feel like a lockdown, if not of society then of their lives and of their livelihoods.”'

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck.
https://www.fijitimes.com/norway-in-...rules-pm-says/

All sales of alcohol in bars and restaurants are banned. A maximum of 10 people can gather in a private home, but if social distancing is maintained (minimum 1 meter), up to 20 people is allowed during Christmas and New Years’ celebrations.

'In practice, this means most bars and nightclubs will have to shut down for the period the new stricter rules are obligatory. For now, the government says that period will last for a month, until January 14th.'

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/co...covid-lockdown

Everybody is welcome to use whatever terminology he wants, but terminology should be used consistently.

So if what Norway is doing now is "lockdown", then what Sweden did during 2020 was also "lockdown", as these are practically identical measures (except the alcohol ban).

Note that "a maximum of 10 people can gather . . . " This is a recommendation, not a mandate.

I don't mean to minimize the effect of these measures, though. People are SO tired of the pandemic and of all these measures, even the light measures like in Norway. It's just extremely discouraging coming only a few months after the official "end of the pandemic" in Norway. That's why the Norwegian PM said that "it may FEEL LIKE a lockdown" -- she didn't say it IS a lockdown. She knows how discouraged people are.

And in other news, a similar prediction for Finland: https://yle.fi/news/3-12228132, that Omicron will take over by Christmas. And that Finland is only a few days behind Norway and Denmark. Sigh.

I sure hope all those optimistic predictions from John Campbell's videos turn out to be actually true. That optimism is so far not shared by Nordic health authorities, who are nervous. New restrictions are being considered here, too: https://yle.fi/news/3-12227143

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Yeah, why listen to what this Yale scientist has to say and make up your own mind when young Miss Zimmer has clearly warned you in what looks to be a local paper hit-piece that it's not worth your bother ...

You might have noticed, that Miss Zimmer’s 'YALE Daily News’ article stated:
“... In a statement [to which she, and I both provided links] released on Medium on Aug. 4, members of the Yale scientific and medical community voiced concern over Risch’s ardent advocacy of hydroxychloroquine. It is signed by more than 20 Yale faculty members ...”

She also provides links to primary sources, citing her other factual statements.

Here it is, again:
“Statement from Yale Faculty on Hydroxychloroquine and its Use in COVID-19"
➥ https://medium.com/@gregggonsalves/s...9-47d0dee7b2b0

[Dockhead]

A more encouraging note:





Whole region is doing well with vaccination. Even the former vaccination laggard of Europe, Latvia, has come back with a bang and has almost caught up with the EU average.


Australia, of course, is not in Northern Europe, but I just find the catch-up amazing after such a slow start. Australia has passed the UK and is catching up to Ireland.


Contrary to what some people have posted in here, vaccination does indeed slow down the spread of the Delta variant, as it significantly reduces all kinds of infections. This apparently does not apply to Omicron, or not much. God only knows what is going to happen when, in a few days, Omicron takes over.

[goboatingnow]

The view here in Ireland is based on the recent UK data which suggest three vaccines are goo protection from Omicron . The booster rollout is being doubled in rate ( akin to the UK annoucement ) and being brought forward . Clearly public health here is buying into the booster being a protection . Also initial vaccinations are being extended to 5 to 12 year olds as its now transpiring ( doh) that schools are facilitating infections by young people transferring it to the old

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The view here in Ireland is based on the recent UK data which suggest three vaccines are goo protection from Omicron . The booster rollout is being doubled in rate ( akin to the UK annoucement ) and being brought forward . Clearly public health here is buying into the booster being a protection . Also initial vaccinations are being extended to 5 to 12 year olds as its now transpiring ( doh) that schools are facilitating infections by young people transferring it to the old

I think we know very little so far. Some data suggests the vaccines provide little protection from infection by Omicron. Whether the vaccines provide much protection against severe disease is not clear since Omicron doesn't seem to cause much severe disease in anyone, at least according to what we know so far. Some data from the UK suggest that triple vaccination provides strong protection against Omicron. Some data from S. Africa suggests much lower hospitalization and death rates from Omicron.


I think it's still mostly speculation, but hopefully a clearer picture will emerge soon. The only hopeful thing I can say is that every day which goes by without a spike in hospitalizations, is another sign that maybe Omicron is mild. It's hard not to hope.


One of the Campbell videos even suggests that Omicron may be a "natural vaccine", capable of ending the pandemic. I think that's wildly speculative so far, but wouldn't it be great if it's true.

[GordMay]

Foreign diplomats travelling from Europe were among first known Omicron cases

The original ‘Omicron’ samples came from four foreign nationals, visiting diplomats, who tested positive for COVID-19 on November 11. Officials haven’t confirmed where the diplomats travelled from, saying they want to avoid stigmatising other nations, but Botswana’s president stated in an interview [1] that at least some had “been to Europe”.

[1] ➥ https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...dent-1.5692519

[Dockhead]

Here is some really good news, hot off the press:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/14/h...-paxlovid.html

Pfizer's protease inhibitor treatment pill (note, not vaccine) prevents almost 90% of hospitalization, and works against Omicron also.

This is really big news for our cruising prospects next year in Northern Europe and elsewhere. First of all, this will save a lot of unvaccinated people. Second, this will save a lot of immuno-compromised people for whom the vaccines work badly or not at all. Lastly -- in case Omicron turns out not to be so mild after all, this is a second line of defense.

This will greatly improve our ability to live with the endemic virus, protecting hospitals, and saving human lives. I think Big Pharma has hit it out of the park AGAIN.

[Zippee]

Thanks to all, but at the moment to Dockhead for a good current overview. I would only add that what some countries continue to be concerned about - at least for the moment (it's still too early) - in not Omicron's early reports of mildness, but much more it's concerning vaccine escape together with its explosive doubling time.

As Campbell puts it, including in a recent BBC interview - it's not the mildness and low percentage of severe cases, it's that a low percentage of admissions multiplied by a huge number of infections (of both vaccinated and esp. unvaccinated) still puts a large number of people in hospitals that remain overloaded with severe Delta cases.

Omicron AND Delta is the fear for as long as it takes for Omicron to supplant Delta. The transition period - however short or longer - may be punishing - and it is for this that they quite rightfully express great concern.

[Exile]

From the AP this morning:

On the treatment side, an over-the-counter pill that looks promising should Omicron defy predictions and cause more serious illness.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfize...115125089.html

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

As Campbell puts it, including in a recent BBC interview - it's not the mildness and low percentage of severe cases, it's that a low percentage of admissions multiplied by a huge number of infections (of both vaccinated and esp. unvaccinated) still puts a large number of people in hospitals that remain overloaded with severe Delta cases.

Exactly, and a good synopsis. Even under the best scenario with Omicron, the actual numbers of people susceptible to serious illness could potentially be very high. On top of Delta . . . . 'Yikes' could be right, and explains the serious reaction from public health authorities.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Exile

Exactly, and a good synopsis. Even under the best scenario with Omicron, the actual numbers of people susceptible to serious illness could potentially be very high. On top of Delta . . . . 'Yikes' could be right, and explains the serious reaction from public health authorities.

Indeed, but the Pfizer protease inhibitor drug could be an enormous help in dealing with that. I wonder how long it will take them to ramp up production and distribution?

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed, but the Pfizer protease inhibitor drug could be an enormous help in dealing with that. I wonder how long it will take them to ramp up production and distribution?

The hold-ups are usually with the (US) FDA and maybe comparable authorities in other countries (EU?). Hopefully approvals can be expedited in the event hospitals start overflowing. I'll look for updates on this which I'll post.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Exile

The hold-ups are usually with the (US) FDA and maybe comparable authorities in other countries (EU?). Hopefully approvals can be expedited in the event hospitals start overflowing. I'll look for updates on this which I'll post.

EU approvals process is trying to anticipate and get ahead

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/em...ients-covid-19