Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Exile]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

I just stuck an assortment of countries into that and then looked at the chart
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/c...OL~PER~NOR~NZL
Despite what some people assert Australia only made the top five for a short period and never rates over 75%
F'rinstance April last year Australia at 14th, Norway at 11th and the top 6 countries rating over 90% they being Argentina (100%),New Zealand, Peru, Ecuador, Israel, and Ireland.
Only time Australia takes the lead is November this year when once again it was around 73% and everyone else had a smaller number.

Stats are so much fun!

Just to add to the fun, here are excess mortality stats for those same 6 countries with the highest stringency index. Looks like it correlates well with all except Peru & Ecuador which look terrible. Maybe on account of limitations of health care systems?

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...ER~ISR~ECU~IRL

Here's Australia in mostly negative territory!

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~AUS

And finally, just for the heck of it, the US & UK.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...ountry=USA~GBR

Lots of variables in play here, so maybe tough to reach firm conclusions on cause & effect in every case. But interesting nonetheless.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Exile

Just to add to the fun, here are excess mortality stats for those same 6 countries with the highest stringency index. Looks like it correlates well with all except Peru & Ecuador which look terrible. Maybe on account of limitations of health care systems?
I think it was a combination of factors - at least in Ecuador.
In Guayquil - the most populous city - they were dropping like flies in the street and at home and never got to think about hospital. This would combine with delays in getting to hospital due to system overload. Add in crowded housing.
Peru? Having seen the way people live on the fringes of Lima I think that it would have been the Ecuador situation - squared

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...ER~ISR~ECU~IRL

Here's Australia in mostly negative territory!

Theory would be that if you can't leave home you aren't going to die by drop bear, or box jellyfish, or great white shark, or...
Deaths at home may have actually gone up with more people deciding to do home renos and falling off ladders etc.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~AUS

And finally, just for the heck of it, the US & UK.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...ountry=USA~GBR

Lots of variables in play here, so maybe tough to reach firm conclusions on cause & effect in every case. But interesting nonetheless.

Another small point re the stringency index.
I have just noticed that it states- 'If
policies vary at the subnational level, the index shows the response level of the strictest subregion.'
It follows that the Australian index is for the state of Victoria as the other states - with the exception of NSW - have only had travel bans (state and international).

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

. . . 'the word "lockdown" is in my opinion really abused.'
You would appear to be a lone voice on that one.

Not indeed a lone voice. In science, and in the dictionary, the word has a clear meaning.


Restricted to your home by the force of law with a few exceptions is one thing -- that's lockdown the way it's used in science, and in the dictionary.


Advised to stay at home as much as possible -- I'm finding it hard to understand why you don't see the difference.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Zippee

I don't want to get caught in a crossfire, but the notion that "lockdown" is over or mis-used is fair, as a goodly number of other posters have opined. The term - at least until Covid - is a rather old one, and already refers to rather severe or extreme measures, eg per Miriam Webster...

"1 : the confinement of prisoners to their cells for all or most of the day as a temporary security measure

2a : an emergency measure or condition in which people are temporarily prevented from entering or leaving a restricted area or building (such as a school) during a threat of danger".

For me anyway, the sense of emergency was clear as applied in already extreme situations as a kind of final, extreme and severe intervention. I too feel the term is bandied about a bit too easily, especially when the stringency ratings are always changing and typically fluctuate between say 40 and 70. I've never seen a stringency of 100 or even 90 (this is when someone will find an exception, lol), which to me is what it would take to use the already severe term of "lockdown".

Another currently discussed country is China, whose stringency ratings have usually been high - when in fact almost all of the population is living without restriction, with the very temporary and apparently effective and limited hotspot tracing and quarantines. If we can't correlate stringency with "lockdown" then the term begins to lose meaning.

Last example: here in the states we have large percentage of disbeliever and anti-vaxxers who claim that rules regarding mask wearing are somehow an infringement of "my freedom" - yet who say nothing about laws against drunk driving or wearing seatbelts, or that require the annual payment of taxes.

Is "lockdown" similarly exaggerated or mis-used? And if so, how about "severe" or "extreme lockdown"? Does that mean theres also a "cute and friendly or mild lockdown"?

Time for a beer...

Indeed.

One thing in the fine print about the Stringency Index, which might shed some light.

Where a country has different policies in different regions, the policies of the strictest region are counted.

For that reason, the stringency index for China really doesn't give any useful information, because the country is so huge and NPI's applied were typically in one region (out of dozens) only, while the rest of the country lived life normally.

This applies also to Australia, with different states with very different policies, but much less so -- high stringency was applied in the two states where most of the population is, so Australia's high Stringency Index does indeed represent what most of the population went through. Not all of it, and I think our friend Ping was lucky to be in one of the less populous, less restricted states.


Edit: Oops, I see Ping beat me to it:

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Another small point re the stringency index.
I have just noticed that it states- 'If
policies vary at the subnational level, the index shows the response level of the strictest subregion.'
It follows that the Australian index is for the state of Victoria as the other states - with the exception of NSW - have only had travel bans (state and international).

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Not indeed a lone voice. In science, and in the dictionary, the word has a clear meaning.


Restricted to your home by the force of law with a few exceptions is one thing -- that's lockdown the way it's used in science, and in the dictionary.


Advised to stay at home as much as possible -- I'm finding it hard to understand why you don't see the difference.

Simply using the word 'science' in a post does not make you an expert on language any more than saying 'wombat' makes me an expert on drop bears.

Are you you using an american dictionary or one based on the Queen's English - they are different when it comes to usage . So many words have different meanings in english and american.

Common usage seems to have got ahead of the dictionaries and common usage is where meaning - and future dictionary entrys - comes from.

This is how the word was being used by the World Economic Forum almost two years ago.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...virus-covid19/
The UK, US, EU and many other countries are currently in some degree of “lockdown,” with restaurants and bars, shops, schools and gyms closed, and citizens required, or at least strongly encouraged, to stay home to avoid catching or spreading COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus.'
The word -like the virus- has evolved a lot since then.

Its a bit like calling out anyone who uses the word 'ship' to describe anything other than a sailing vessel with three masts and a bowsprit, squared rigged on all three masts.

[El Pinguino]

Here you go, from Collin's Dictionary where it was word of the year last year.

'According to the dictionary, lockdown is defined as "the imposition of stringent restrictions on travel, social interaction, and access to public spaces".'

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54878910

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Well Sydney had a 'mockdown' earlier this year
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...08701783206f16

Note that the writer of that piece says
'I’m not aware of a dictionary definition of a pandemic lockdown. But according to some on the socials, unless it strictly follows Melbourne’s 112-day lockdown of 2020, it doesn’t count.'

According to the 'Daily Wail' Melb and Sydney are currently in a 'mini-lockdown'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ovid-fear.html

English is a living language - the term 'lockdown' has gone the 'full Omicron' and is mutating and changing daily.

Time for a beer indeed - bad luck if you live in Norway or the Netherlands - you won't be going to the pub to have it in the company of your chums.

No worries, the pub's open just bring your own beer or fav boisson, it's only the serving alcohol which is banned.. literally speaking of course

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

.........

This applies also to Australia, with different states with very different policies, but much less so -- high stringency was applied in the two states where most of the population is, so Australia's high Stringency Index does indeed represent what most of the population went through. Not all of it, and I think our friend Ping was lucky to be in one of the less populous, less restricted states.


......

Not quite - actually not at all; just the opposite really.
Melbourne (VIC) was the only place that had a highly stringent lockdown. The greater Melbourne area has about 20% of the Australian population.

Despite the media reports suggesting otherwise, only some of the NSW LGAs had a lockdown and those were far less stringent than Melbourne.

The vast majority of Australians have not experienced stringent lockdowns although about half had interstate travel restrictions - on and off.

FWIW, Ping lives near the border of the two prime covid states.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Simply using the word 'science' in a post does not make you an expert on language any more than saying 'wombat' makes me an expert on drop bears.

Are you you using an american dictionary or one based on the Queen's English - they are different when it comes to usage . So many words have different meanings in english and american.

Common usage seems to have got ahead of the dictionaries and common usage is where meaning - and future dictionary entrys - comes from.

This is how the word was being used by the World Economic Forum almost two years ago.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...virus-covid19/
The UK, US, EU and many other countries are currently in some degree of “lockdown,” with restaurants and bars, shops, schools and gyms closed, and citizens required, or at least strongly encouraged, to stay home to avoid catching or spreading COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the novel coronavirus.'
The word -like the virus- has evolved a lot since then.

Its a bit like calling out anyone who uses the word 'ship' to describe anything other than a sailing vessel with three masts and a bowsprit, squared rigged on all three masts.

Are we really going argue about this? Things must be slow down under.

The dictionaries all agree on what "lockdown" means, other than a couple which follow a strictly descriptive approach to language. "Lockdown" has a relatively precise meaning, which you can find there, and it has a really loose meaning, which you can find in other places. Your choice of how to use it.

All of your comments apply equally to the use of the words "boat" and "ship". Some people call big cruise ships "boats" (hell, the "Love Boat", right?). You can find plenty of cites for "boat" used for anything manmade which floats. I prefer to use the word "boat" in a more precise manner, distinguished from other vessels like ships. Likewise with "lockdown". Your choice how you use the word, and I didn't criticize anyone, except to beg people to at least be consistent.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Not quite - actually not at all; just the opposite really.
Melbourne (VIC) was the only place that had a highly stringent lockdown. The greater Melbourne area has about 20% of the Australian population.

Despite the media reports suggesting otherwise, only some of the NSW LGAs had a lockdown and those were far less stringent than Melbourne.

The vast majority of Australians have not experienced stringent lockdowns although about half had interstate travel restrictions - on and off.

FWIW, Ping lives near the border of the two prime covid states.

Thanks for the correction!


So it means that the Stringency Index for Australia is more like the case of China than I thought.


That adds weight to the idea that the policy was a success -- even if there were fumbles and occasional unnecessarily harsh measures, if most of the population really did not live under harsh restrictions through most of the pandemic, then the cost will not have been nearly as great as countries like the U.S. and France which had more downside and none of the upside.

[laird]

Looks like there will be tightened restrictions coming in for the UK
If I was a betting person ,I'd go for the full lockdown ( only essential business open ) kicking in on boxing Day ,I get the feeling that the gov is trying to help those businesses that will suffer the most ,i.e. restaurants , a chance to earn a bit before they are closed

I can't see business loans being reintroduced , too much money was scammed the last time

[Anders]

Originally Posted by laird

Looks like there will be tightened restrictions coming in for the UK
If I was a betting person ,I'd go for the full lockdown ( only essential business open ) kicking in on boxing Day ,I get the feeling that the gov is trying to help those businesses that will suffer the most ,i.e. restaurants , a chance to earn a bit before they are closed

I can't see business loans being reintroduced , too much money was scammed the last time

If you were a betting person you probably would find the odds would be around 1/5.

[goboatingnow]

When in danger or in doubt , run in circles , scream and shout

( European public health policy manual )

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Are we really going argue about this? Things must be slow down under.

The dictionaries all agree on what "lockdown" means, other than a couple which follow a strictly descriptive approach to language. "Lockdown" has a relatively precise meaning, which you can find there, and it has a really loose meaning, which you can find in other places. Your choice of how to use it.

All of your comments apply equally to the use of the words "boat" and "ship". Some people call big cruise ships "boats" (hell, the "Love Boat", right?). You can find plenty of cites for "boat" used for anything manmade which floats. I prefer to use the word "boat" in a more precise manner, distinguished from other vessels like ships. Likewise with "lockdown". Your choice how you use the word, and I didn't criticize anyone, except to beg people to at least be consistent.

Absolutely and thank you. And I did get caught in the crossfire. I have always loved language, 3 years of Spanish and Latin, multiple later courses, et al. The etymology of words can be fascinating, for example watching how the meaning developed over many years, if not centuries. Most of our words have Latin roots (which is why English and Spanish are so similar).

Back into the crossfire: again I'm going to agree with Dockhead's view, which is quite accurate insofar as usage. This leads to the task of major dictionaries who - very cautiously but surely - will see a word used with changing meanings in all media or now, on the net. At a point, the altered meaning may appear as secondary usage, but it will not yet become the primary usage.

I think it's fair that the sudden appearance and flimsy use of "lockdown" is not quite ready for prime time in this regard. This may change in the future of course. Allow me to raise my head from the bunker and add that the term may have political implications as well.

Here in the US there is a serious split in re Covid and measures. The doubters in many cases doubt the disease, refuse the use of masks and so on. In these groups the term is often used and abused in describing even mild restrictions.

The stringency index is useful but only roughly as the term "lockdown" seems often applied regardless of the changing stringency scores (which consider hundreds of factors). And even if the term would correlate, even the stringency scores are not really predictable without further analysis.

Time for a second beer...


Addendum:

Another poster stated "The UK, US, EU and many other countries are currently in some degree of “lockdown,”. This may be the essence of the misunderstanding. As posted before the formal definition of "lockdown" describes a final, extreme and severe intervention. The definition does not establish degrees of it. One could just as easily have said "The UK, US, EU and many other countries are currently in some degree of "freedom".

Is the difference political? Does the term reflect overstatement, dramatization, fatigue or frustration?

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Not quite - actually not at all; just the opposite really.
Melbourne (VIC) was the only place that had a highly stringent lockdown. The greater Melbourne area has about 20% of the Australian population.

Despite the media reports suggesting otherwise, only some of the NSW LGAs had a lockdown and those were far less stringent than Melbourne.

The vast majority of Australians have not experienced stringent lockdowns although about half had interstate travel restrictions - on and off.

FWIW, Ping lives near the border of the two prime covid states.

Exactly, that's what I have been trying to say for some time.