Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, by this time in history, stability is a precise science.

I don't know what modern naval architects make of Viking ships, but the implications of flattish bottoms and open decks are pretty obvious. I've been knocked flat in the North Sea by a breaking wave in a sea state which is pretty common in those waters. In a 54 foot boat with closed decks and a deep bulb keel. What would a wave like that do to an undecked Viking ship?



It wasn't the boats, I daresay -- must have been the seamen. They must have known an awful lot about the weather, too. I am really in awe.

Well at 54ft your smaller than their open sea raiders were.. those were from 18metres up to 50metres long and I would imagine they would have resorted to oars for adverse sea conditions using them to keep head to sea or as stabilisers if running before bare poled.. 20 pairs of oars would have given a 60ftr quite a bit of speed and power.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Well at 54ft your smaller than their open sea raiders were.. those were from 18metres up to 50metres long and I would imagine they would have resorted to oars for adverse sea conditions using them to keep head to sea or as stabilisers if running before bare poled.. 20 pairs of oars would have given a 60ftr quite a bit of speed and power.

18 meters is about the size of my boat, and no keel, no deck. No motor. Only a square sail. I still can't imagine how they would deal with that sea state in a vessel like that.

[Exile]

At least they had plenty of ballast for the return trip. In the form of all the gold, silver, and jewels they "acquired" that is.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

18 meters is about the size of my boat, and no keel, no deck. No motor. Only a square sail. I still can't imagine how they would deal with that sea state in a vessel like that.

They had 40 motors.. 20 each side.
If you think about it Bligh was on a much smaller boat with no keel and they survived over 2000nm of open ocean.
We used to go across to Ostend in open deck 32ft cutters, no keel or engine just oars and sail back in the 60's from HMS Ganges.. just across the way from Harwich and Felixstowe.

[Montanan]

Rapid tests do not always detect Omicron — here's how to know for sure if you've got COVID-19 or not

https://www.yahoo.com/news/rapid-tes...150255402.html

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes!! You are either very well read or very old (or both).

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Zippee can speak for himself, but the Dutch tulip bubble rose and fell in one decade in the 1630's, during which Denmark (of which Norway was a part at that time) and Sweden (of which Finland was a part at that time) were allies in the Thirty Years War, so I doubt that's what he was thinking about. There's no shame in briefly confusing a couple of small European countries, for someone living on a different continent.

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Continuing in reading 101, 1632 and a slew of other followup books in a series by Eric Flint (and others), are quite remarkable in the history of that era. Alternate History is a lot of fun when done right.

[Exile]

Speaking of at-home testing, it was interesting to read how Denmark's recent meteoric increase in Omicron infections was attributed in part to the widespread availability of in-home testing. Without such DIY testing availability, infections with mild or no symptoms would largely go unnoticed and therefore uncounted. This necessarily exaggerates the rate of serious illness as compared to total infections, thereby potentially exaggerating the percentage of people requiring hospitalization and dying. It would also presumably increase the spread since many if not most would not be aware they were infected and therefore contagious.

As an example, albeit merely an anecdotal one, over 94% of NFL players in the US have been vaccinated. Many if not most are required to test every day, and hundreds have tested positive but have no symptoms. This has accelerated in recent days as Omicron has penetrated into the US. If most of an entire population tested every day, it seems logical that the infection rate would be astronomical (e.g. Denmark), but it also necessarily means that a correspondingly smaller percentage of those infected are requiring hospitalization or are dying.

Of course, this doesn't discount legitimate fears about smaller percentages of much larger numbers inundating hospitals with Omicron, but it might in fact do so if such percentages are incorrectly inflated due to low testing rates. Maybe this is why the Biden administration recently reversed course and announced an effort to make testing kits more widely available. It could allow for improved planning on the part of hospitals, for additional critical data in evaluating the efficacy of restrictions, and may even perhaps slow the contagion. Omicron definitely presents a different set of factors for the world to consider, but it's not necessarily as alarming as being portrayed in the media and elsewhere.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Exile

Without such DIY testing availability, infections with mild or no symptoms would largely go unnoticed and therefore uncounted. This necessarily exaggerates the rate of serious illness as compared to total infections, thereby potentially exaggerating the percentage of people requiring hospitalization and dying.

I am pretty sure I understand you but want to be sure because this is a very interesting point.

I think your point is that uncounted cases due to low testing rates would artificially increase the expected number of hospitalizations for a given number of cases.

Have I got that right?

[Zippee]

'
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile
Without such DIY testing availability, infections with mild or no symptoms would largely go unnoticed and therefore uncounted. This necessarily exaggerates the rate of serious illness as compared to total infections, thereby potentially exaggerating the percentage of people requiring hospitalization and dying.

Originally Posted by danstanford

I am pretty sure I understand you but want to be sure because this is a very interesting point. I think your point is that uncounted cases due to low testing rates would artificially increase the expected number of hospitalizations for a given number of cases.

Have I got that right?

Let's go with this a bit more. If his point is that the untested/unreported cases lead to reporting a higher percentage of hospitalization/dying, this ignores that the so called "higher" percentage is being compared to Delta - which suffered from the same effect.

Therefore - and if I also got this right - then the "artificially higher" percentage of Omicron is cancelled by comparison to the also "artificially higher" Delta percentage.


Si?

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Australia decided to let it rip for heard immunity by infection to end the pandemic, by closely watching the hospital situation and focussing only on the vulnerable.

Finally the right approach. Hope other countries will follow soon.

I've not herd anything about this!

However leaving aside any linguistic issues, where have you heard this? I'm pretty sure it isn't common knowledge in Australia ATM and I reckon I'm across the Covid pulse here.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I've not herd anything about this!



However leaving aside any linguistic issues, where have you heard this? I'm pretty sure it isn't common knowledge in Australia ATM and I reckon I'm across the Covid pulse here.

https://youtu.be/LVl5OkHcvf4

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ge-2021-12-21/

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

https://youtu.be/LVl5OkHcvf4

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ge-2021-12-21/

Ah yes, a few days old now and not representative of the country.
NSW backflips.
VIC holds firm with masks
WA doubles down extending hard borders

etc etc

Breaking - booster interval decreased to 4 months today and 3 months next month.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-...iant/100723998

ATM, there is no place in Oz letting rip and relying of herd immunity.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/stat...20-%2020211223

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/stat...20-%2020211223

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/coro...20-%2020211223

[Montanan]

Stay safe, stay healthy.

Wishing Happy Holidays to all and hopefully a much better 2022.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

https://youtu.be/LVl5OkHcvf4

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ge-2021-12-21/

Youtube fellow started talking about Morrison within 3 minutes so gave that a miss.
Reuters only quoted Morrison and Hunt so that is in the bin as well.

Australian states eased all restrictions because the infection rates were very low, hospitalisations lower, and a very very high percentage of the population has had both vaccinations. Amongst the over 60's the figure is over 95% fully vaxxed, over 97% first shot.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/c...28-p56xht.html

Nothing to do with 'let it rip for heard immunity by infection'

[Exile]

Originally Posted by danstanford

I am pretty sure I understand you but want to be sure because this is a very interesting point.

I think your point is that uncounted cases due to low testing rates would artificially increase the expected number of hospitalizations for a given number of cases.

Have I got that right?

Yes. The metric I was referencing was the relationship between total cases/infections vs. the smaller subset of infections which result in serious illness/hospitalization. From what we know thus far (albeit somewhat muddled), Omicron is more contagious but appears to present with milder or even no symptoms for most people. So if this pattern continues, there may be a lot of people who won't necessarily know if they've been infected absent testing. If they don't know (or aren't sick enough to go to a doctor or hospital) then they're likely not getting diagnosed and therefore cannot be counted. If they're not counted the total official number of cases is artificially low, which in turn results in those with more serious symptoms (being treated at clinics & hospitals and therefore counted) amounting to an artificially higher percentage. This could result in a significant overstatement of the risk for most of a country's population. See the anecdotal example from the case of the NFL cited above.

This is all based on assumptions only at this point, obviously, absent more data & science. If the pattern being reported so far continues, however, there may be little risk for most people from simply getting infected with Omicron (and will benefit from natural immunity), and efforts & resources should probably be refocused from the risk of infection in its own right to treatment. One of the big variables that is still unknown, however, is whether Omicron will in fact completely displace Delta, or whether the latter will continue to produce more serious illness in larger percentages of people. This could put an even greater burden on hospitals than from Omicron alone. But the problem of under-testing and thus under-counting appears to be more of an issue with Omicron given it's milder symptoms.

Btw, the FDA just granted emergency approval to Merck for a second treatment drug (along with Pfizer) for those with mild to moderate symptoms who are vulnerable to more serious illness. These are hopeful developments as we learn that the efficacy of the vaccines and even the boosters may be shorter lived than expected.