Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

'
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile
Without such DIY testing availability, infections with mild or no symptoms would largely go unnoticed and therefore uncounted. This necessarily exaggerates the rate of serious illness as compared to total infections, thereby potentially exaggerating the percentage of people requiring hospitalization and dying.




Let's go with this a bit more. If his point is that the untested/unreported cases lead to reporting a higher percentage of hospitalization/dying, this ignores that the so called "higher" percentage is being compared to Delta - which suffered from the same effect.

Therefore - and if I also got this right - then the "artificially higher" percentage of Omicron is cancelled by comparison to the also "artificially higher" Delta percentage.


Si?

I was focused more on the different analysis & metrics that could result from Omicron completely displacing Delta as explained above. The numbers could be similar for Delta, but it seems like Delta produced fewer cases with very mild symptoms. Really don't know, and also don't know how long the shortages of DIY testing kits in the US have been going on.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Stay safe, stay healthy.

Wishing Happy Holidays to all and hopefully a much better 2022.

I personally never had a problem with mask usage, but I'm pretty sure they're not nearly as protective for myself or others as your image portrays.

Stay calm & carry on.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed, you are absolutely right, thanks for the correction.

Nevertheless, it IS referred to as the "Danish Conquest of England"; see: https://everything2.com/title/The+Da...est+of+England.

And didn't Cnut finally get all of it? "Cnut, King of England, Denmark, Norway, and part of Sweden", right? I can't remember exactly, though. You guys have simply so MUCH history, I can't keep it straight...

The best book, on English history, I ever studied, which takes as its basic tenet, the idea that history is only what you can remember, and is therefore a collection of half remembered facts.
The authors maintain that there are only two memorable dates, these being 1066 (the Battle of Hastings, and the Norman Invasion) and 55 BC (the first Roman Invasion). The book begins with the Roman invasion, and continues to the end of WW1, when America was clearly thus Top Nation, and history came to an end.

Of note, to this conversation:

CHAPTER 4

Britain Conquered Again

THE conversion of Britain was followed by a Wave of Danes, accompanied by their sisters or Sagas, and led by such memorable warriors as Harold Falsetooth and Magnus the Great, who, landing correctly in Thanet, overran the country from right to left, with fire. (*) After this the Danes invented a law called the Danelaw, which easily proved that since there was nobody else left alive there, all the right-hand part of England belonged to them. The Danish Conquest was, however, undoubtedly a Good Thing, because although it made the Danes top nation for a time it was the cause of Alfred the Cake (and in any case they were beaten utterly in the end by Nelson).

By this time the Saxons had all become very old like the Britons before them and were called ealdormen; when they had been defeated in a battle by the Danes they used to sing little songs to themselves such as the memorable fragment discovered in the Bodleian Library at Oxford:

Old-Saxon Fragment
Syng a song of Saxons
In the Wapentake of Rye
Four and twenty eaoldormen
Too eaold to die....
Anon.

(*) And, according to certain obstinate historians, the Sword. The Danes, on the other hand, wrote a very defiant kind of Epic poetry, e.g.:

Beoleopard
OR
The Witan's Whail

Whan Cnut Cyng the Witan wold enfeoff
Of infangthief and outfangthief
onderlich were they enwraged
And wordwar waged
Sware Cnut great scot and lot
Swinge wold ich this illbegotten lot.
Wroth was Cnut and wrothword spake.
Well wold he win at wopantake.
Fain wold he brak frith and crack heads
And than they shold worshippe his redes.
Swing d Cnut Cyng with swung sword
Howl d Witane hell but hearkened his word
Muri sang Cnut Cyng
Outfangthief is Damgudthyng.

From ➥ 1066 and All That

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The best book, on English history, I ever studied, which takes as its basic tenet, the idea that history is only what you can remember, and is therefore a collection of half remembered facts.
The authors maintain that there are only two memorable dates, these being 1066 (the Battle of Hastings, and the Norman Invasion) and 55 BC (the first Roman Invasion). The book begins with the Roman invasion, and continues to the end of WW1, when America was clearly thus Top Nation, and history came to an end.

Of note, to this conversation:

CHAPTER 4

Britain Conquered Again

THE conversion of Britain was followed by a Wave of Danes, accompanied by their sisters or Sagas, and led by such memorable warriors as Harold Falsetooth and Magnus the Great, who, landing correctly in Thanet, overran the country from right to left, with fire. (*) After this the Danes invented a law called the Danelaw, which easily proved that since there was nobody else left alive there, all the right-hand part of England belonged to them. The Danish Conquest was, however, undoubtedly a Good Thing, because although it made the Danes top nation for a time it was the cause of Alfred the Cake (and in any case they were beaten utterly in the end by Nelson).

By this time the Saxons had all become very old like the Britons before them and were called ealdormen; when they had been defeated in a battle by the Danes they used to sing little songs to themselves such as the memorable fragment discovered in the Bodleian Library at Oxford:

Old-Saxon Fragment
Syng a song of Saxons
In the Wapentake of Rye
Four and twenty eaoldormen
Too eaold to die....
Anon.

(*) And, according to certain obstinate historians, the Sword. The Danes, on the other hand, wrote a very defiant kind of Epic poetry, e.g.:

Beoleopard
OR
The Witan's Whail

Whan Cnut Cyng the Witan wold enfeoff
Of infangthief and outfangthief
onderlich were they enwraged
And wordwar waged
Sware Cnut great scot and lot
Swinge wold ich this illbegotten lot.
Wroth was Cnut and wrothword spake.
Well wold he win at wopantake.
Fain wold he brak frith and crack heads
And than they shold worshippe his redes.
Swing d Cnut Cyng with swung sword
Howl d Witane hell but hearkened his word
Muri sang Cnut Cyng
Outfangthief is Damgudthyng.

From ➥ 1066 and All That

Hilarious!!! I am ROTF etc. I will read that; thanks!

[Dockhead]

Merry Christmas, to everyone who celebrates it!


It is a lovely white one up in Fenno-Scandia, but I'm not there. I'm in Gibraltar waiting for the rest of my crew to arrive (and for a weather window to open up on the 28th). It's pouring down rain here and for the second day. We will leave on the 28th for the Canaries, from there to Cape Verdes, and from there across to St. Lucia. So I'm a long ways from Northern Europe at the moment, but my thoughts are still there. Christmas celebrations are particularly nice in that part of the world.

[Dockhead]

And, I think a pretty nice Christmas present for Northern Europe -- still no significant increase in death or hospitalization:






Christmas is likely to be an Omicron superspreader event across the region, but will it matter? I think it's starting to become hard to say that we don't know whether Omicron is deadly or not. There's still not the slightest sign of any deadliness, at least in well vaccinated populations like ours, which also have a fair amount of natural immunity, especially Denmark and Sweden. Hospitalization and death rates are entirely reasonable; particularly striking is the UK with completely flat death rate for the whole month despite the big surge in Omicron cases. In Denmark, despite an even bigger surge, the death rate is significantly DOWN from a month ago.


Also very, very good to see how the situation develops in Germany -- infections down, deaths down, hospitalization down. We were worried about Germany not long ago.


So is this it? Omicron being so infectuous means huge surges in infections. But like sudden squalls at sea, huge surges are over as fast as they start. Will Omicron just rip through the region, and then the pandemic is actually really over, finally, in a month or two?

[Exile]

Interesting to see the rather steep drop-off of new daily cases in Denmark since these are all presumably Omicron. Might see several more of these rather short up & down cycles as we did in S. Africa.

Have a great sail Dockhead! Hopefully no Covid-related hassles checking into St. Lucia.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

So is this it? Omicron being so infectuous means huge surges in infections. But like sudden squalls at sea, huge surges are over as fast as they start. Will Omicron just rip through the region, and then the pandemic is actually really over, finally, in a month or two?

I join you in hoping for this to be the end and I suppose it could be categorized as the best possible end given the anticipated low death rate. In truth, as Omicron has shown us, variants will pilot our Covid future.

In the first weeks of the pandemic I read from a series of articles written by epidemiologists that the likely path of the virus would be, more infectious variants that are less deadly allowing herd immunity and the end of the pandemic.

[CatNewBee]

So is this it? Omicron being so infectuous means huge surges in infections. But like sudden squalls at sea, huge surges are over as fast as they start. Will Omicron just rip through the region, and then the pandemic is actually really over, finally, in a month or two?

It is over, when the people overcome their fear, stop watching the hysteric media and stop panicking.

Otherwise you will get a booster after a booster, after a booster...

[Montanan]

Omicron continues to drive a surge of new COVID cases across the US, with Christmas Eve seeing total infections edge closer to the all-time record.

Figures from Johns Hopkins University published Friday show there were 261,339 new cases in the last 24 hours, up 10 per cent from 238,378 the day before.

The number of deaths caused by the virus have also skyrocketed Friday to 3,354, a 52 per cent increase from 2,204 fatalities on Thursday. That is the highest single-day total since October 13, when 3,054 fatalities were recorded.

Confirmed American Omicron infections rose 45 per cent in a day, from 2,625 to 3,286. Those represent a tiny fraction of the true total, because the US only sequences a very small proportion of positive PCR tests to identify which strain caused a person's infection. The CDC estimates that at least 73 per cent of all new COVID infections are being caused by Omicron, with that figure as high as 92 per cent in five states including New York and New Jersey.

Over in the UK, COVID cases rocketed to a record 122,000 on Friday, as scientists say 1.7 million Britons suffered an infection last week.

I suspect that there will be a large spike in Long Covid as we progress into 2022.

I know a LOT of friends and work associates and their families that have become infected in the last week or two, really taking its toll, many bedridden, fatigued, breathing labored, and brain fogged.

Hope you all weather through without severe or prolonged illness or death and that this virus and disease winds down and becomes endemic in the second half of 2023. Grateful to see enhanced therapeutics and treatment protocols being developed and deployed so as to provide for yet better outcomes of the illness.

Get boosted!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

[Exile]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

It is over, when the people overcome their fear, stop watching the hysteric media and stop panicking.

Otherwise you will get a booster after a booster, after a booster...

Yesterday I read that the booster is now only believed to be effective for 3 mos., after which it starts to wane. Effective against severity that is, not so much transmissibility. This morning I read that it's thought to be down to 10 weeks.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Omicron continues to drive a surge of new COVID cases across the US, with Christmas Eve seeing total infections edge closer to the all-time record.

Figures from Johns Hopkins University published Friday show there were 261,339 new cases in the last 24 hours, up 10 per cent from 238,378 the day before.

Likely much higher actually, since most are mild or even unknown, and there remains a severe shortage of testing kits as previously discussed. This has been all over the news here in the US, with stories & images of people waiting in long queues at testing centers. I'm surprised you missed this.

The number of deaths caused by the virus have also skyrocketed Friday to 3,354, a 52 per cent increase from 2,204 fatalities on Thursday. That is the highest single-day total since October 13, when 3,054 fatalities were recorded.

Would be nice to have a source for this, as well as a breakdown (to the extent possible) btwn Delta & Omicron. Given that so many people newly infected with Omicron may not know, there may be a lot of people being admitted into hospitals for other reasons (as there are every day), that also test positive. Campbell discusses this in his videos but the stats he cites properly attributes actual cause of death. I'm not suggesting what's happening in the US in this regard, only that it would be an easy way for a popular mainstream media source to skew the numbers. Whether hospitals are becoming overburdened would be a more appropriate metric. Does this exist in something close to real time?

Confirmed American Omicron infections rose 45 per cent in a day, from 2,625 to 3,286. Those represent a tiny fraction of the true total, because the US only sequences a very small proportion of positive PCR tests to identify which strain caused a person's infection. The CDC estimates that at least 73 per cent of all new COVID infections are being caused by Omicron, with that figure as high as 92 per cent in five states including New York and New Jersey.

Could suggest Omicron is in fact supplanting Delta rather than coexisting. This could actually be very good news, whether acknowledged by your media source or not.

Over in the UK, COVID cases rocketed to a record 122,000 on Friday, as scientists say 1.7 million Britons suffered an infection last week.

I suspect that there will be a large spike in Long Covid as we progress into 2022.

I haven't seen anything yet that reliably predicts this. Omicron is thought to be less lethal because it doesn't generally penetrate into the lungs, staying instead in the upper bronchial tubes. Unlikely anybody will know for sure for awhile, but I haven't come across anything from a scientific source as of yet. Maybe someone else has?

I know a LOT of friends and work associates and their families that have become infected in the last week or two, really taking its toll, many bedridden, fatigued, breathing labored, and brain fogged.

I'm sorry this is hitting so close to home for you, and when it does it can certainly add to justified fear. But this is no reason to leave out the bigger picture opinion cited in your same article, namely that:

"Officials now warn that the virus could infect 140 million people between January and March - 60 percent of all Americans, although 90 per cent of those who catch COVID are predicted to have no symptoms. Three studies published in the last day have confirmed the strain is milder than Delta, and may result in up to 80 per cent fewer hospitalizations."

Hope you all weather through without severe or prolonged illness or death and that this virus and disease winds down and becomes endemic in the second half of 2023. Grateful to see enhanced therapeutics and treatment protocols being developed and deployed so as to provide for yet better outcomes of the illness.

Get boosted!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

Second half of 2023? May or may not be valid, but where does this prediction come from?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Exile

Yesterday I read that the booster is now only believed to be effective for 3 mos., after which it starts to wane. Effective against severity that is, not so much transmissibility. This morning I read that it's thought to be down to 10 weeks.

They'll never stop transmissibility.. same as they'll never eradicate the virus but the poli's are so scared of getting it wrong they'll have you getting shots once a fortnight if it makes them look like they're doing something.
Same with the scientists.. who'd have the UK shut down everywhere if they could get their way..

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

It is over, when the people overcome their fear, stop watching the hysteric media and stop panicking.
Otherwise you will get a booster after a booster, after a booster...

Remember last year, before the vaccines came out?

[Montanan]

Vaccines are the best explanation for Omicron's mild symptoms in most people, new research suggests

"scientists are still puzzled over whether Omicron is inherently less virulent, or if vaccines and prior infections are simply preventing more people from getting severely ill.

"Truthfully, I think that the reason why the early reports that Omicron is not as severe has nothing to do with the virus having evolved to a less virulent state," Vaughn Cooper, the director of the Center for Evolutionary Biology and Medicine at the University of Pittsburgh, . . "I actually think that's nonsense," he added. "I think it's entirely because it's infecting people that have already seen a coronavirus just like it before."

Researchers at Imperial College London suggested last week that Omicron had "at most limited changes in severity compared with Delta." They also found that Omicron was 11% less likely to produce severe disease than Delta after controlling for factors like age, underlying health conditions, previous infections, and vaccination status.

So unvaccinated people may face the same risk of severe disease from Omicron as they did from other variants.

A South African study found that, once people were hospitalized with COVID-19, their risk of severe outcomes didn't change much based on whether they had Omicron or another variant.
. . .

"I'm still of the sense that our immunity is working really well," Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist at UTHealth School of Public Health, told Insider. "We still have yet to see solid evidence that Omicron is causing less severe disease" independent of vaccines or natural infection."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaccines-...010021193.html