Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by laird

No one said I'm sensitive about AA hope that it did not come across in that way ,I'm very fortunate that I managed to find sobriety ,not everyone does

I will talk to anyone who is concerned about their drinking , I've gone into prisons to organise and run AA meetings ,I've worked with rock and roll superstars ,peers of the realm ,the rich and famous as well as them at the bottom of the social scale

I do enjoy your posts BM , and I loved reading about your exploits sailing your cherubini from the states

Glad to hear you enjoyed it mate...
As for me.. I drink.. I fall over.. No Problem..

[goboatingnow]

Slow news day obviously

[Dockhead]

I've been out of the loop, far away from land for a couple of weeks. I have to say it was even nicer than usual being at sea, as it was a break from this pandemic. I looked at the numbers for the first time since early January.


And I see that Omicron has been a bit more of a challenge than I had hoped.







Incredible infection rate in Denmark, beyond anything I've ever seen. Finland the only country in Northern Europe with infection rate under 1000.


And death rates are not trivial. Only Norway is under 1. Denmark over 3; Finland and Sweden over 2.


Germany has had constantly declining death rates despite high infection rate, though.



Cumulative deaths continue to pile up, with 37 countries now over 2,000 per million, with France, Spain and Portugal just about to pass that grim milestone. 10 countries in Europe are over 3,000. No European country outside of the Nordic region has less than 1,000 cumulative deaths.



This thing just doesn't seem to want to end. I have no idea what the mood is like in Northern Europe; I have been sailing since before Christmas and arrived in Antigua two days ago. I'll be back this weekend.

[boatman61]

Just out on Travel Passes/Certificates..

The European Union (EU) Covid-19 Digital Certificate has an official validity of nine months for vaccination from Tuesday in the context of travel within the Community area and should also include information on booster doses.
As proposed by the European Commission and agreed by EU Member States in the Council, "from tomorrow [Tuesday] the new rules on a standard acceptance period of 270 days for eu Covid-19 Digital Certificates on the vaccination side used for travel within the EU are beginning to apply," the EU executive said in a statement.

Thus, "Member States must accept vaccination certificates for a period of 270 days - nine months - from the completion of the primary vaccination series", i.e. after the second two-dose vaccine or one in the case of a single dose, the institution explains, noting that countries should not adopt different time limits for travel within the EU.
https://www.cmjornal.pt/sociedade/de...de-terca-feira

[sepharad]

Yeah, we now have to deal with Subvariant BA.2 which is 1.5 times as contagious. Half of US states show it present.


The road goes ever on.

[sepharad]

But all is not bad!!!


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60215200


Denmark lifts all restrictions.

[boatman61]

Yup.. Martial Law in all but name is slowly being lifted in the ?Free World?..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by sepharad

But all is not bad!!!


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60215200


Denmark lifts all restrictions.

Deja vu all over again. Restrictions were lifted already once before, at the beginning of the autumn.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Deja vu all over again. Restrictions were lifted already once before, at the beginning of the autumn.

I think there is a very different sentiment around the lockdowns where I am from. It seems that when combined with lockdown fatigue, our risk assessment is changing as we see people we know recover just fine.

When curling last night wearing masks and unable to use our change rooms, I asked a physician friend of mine how he was and he muttered that he would be just fine once we got rid of these damned masks.

[Zippee]

I think there is a very different sentiment around the lockdowns where I am from. It seems that when combined with lockdown fatigue, our risk assessment is changing as we see people we know recover just fine.

When curling last night wearing masks and unable to use our change rooms, I asked a physician friend of mine how he was and he muttered that he would be just fine once we got rid of these damned masks.

Does one anecdote deserve another? Sorry to say, here in the US I know just 4 people who were infected with Omicron. One has no lasting sequelae, two have lasting upper respiratory effects and modest fatigue. And the last one has serious lasting symptoms including extreme fatigue, upper respiratory symptoms and bad muscle soreness and pain.

Anecdotally then, three-quarters of the people I know have not recovered "just fine".

I think a better explanation may be that people have had it with two years of relative isolation, etc., and simply don't care anymore. Or call it confirmation bias of a general desperate need to believe it's over, when it clearly isn't.

At this point we surely need to start getting out - understandable - but to make this the least risky, we need to continue wearing masks, social distancing and being current with our vaccinations.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Zippee

. . . I think a better explanation may be that people have had it with two years of relative isolation, etc., and simply don't care anymore. Or call it confirmation bias of a general desperate need to believe it's over, when it clearly isn't.

I think that's right, and I think that feeling is entirely understandable. As the "cost" of being under restrictions with disrupted life, disrupted social connections etc. piles up without end, with the third year of the pandemic now approaching, the perception of the worthwhileness of incurring those costs naturally changes. Naturally people feel desperate, to such an extent that many people start to not even care any more if they get sick. These are completely understandable, human reactions, and they are not even all that irrational.

Originally Posted by Zippee

. . . At this point we surely need to start getting out - understandable - but to make this the least risky, we need to continue wearing masks, social distancing and being current with our vaccinations.

Maybe. I have been extremely lucky not to have been locked down at any point during this nightmare, but even light measures like masking get awfully, awfully tiring. I am bloody sick of wearing masks. I do wear them (I am afraid of catching Omicron, to be honest), and I certainly keep current with vaccination, but I really understand how people's patience for this is just running out. I've had it with social distancing; I made a decision some time ago to shake hands instead of fist bumping, and hug whomever I want to and who is willing, and I'll take the risk. Different people may come out differently with regard to those risks, of course, but I think I'm far from alone in no longer considering it worth the cost in human contact. Risk and reward balance for all of this changes, naturally, after two bloody years of all this.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Does one anecdote deserve another? Sorry to say, here in the US I know just 4 people who were infected with Omicron. One has no lasting sequelae, two have lasting upper respiratory effects and modest fatigue. And the last one has serious lasting symptoms including extreme fatigue, upper respiratory symptoms and bad muscle soreness and pain.

Anecdotally then, three-quarters of the people I know have not recovered "just fine".

I think a better explanation may be that people have had it with two years of relative isolation, etc., and simply don't care anymore. Or call it confirmation bias of a general desperate need to believe it's over, when it clearly isn't.

At this point we surely need to start getting out - understandable - but to make this the least risky, we need to continue wearing masks, social distancing and being current with our vaccinations.

I'd say the best explanation may be an increasing recognition that the vast majority who get infected are otherwise healthy and have, at worst, mild cold-like symptoms for 24-36 hours and then are fine. And even the CDC has finally recognized the benefits of natural immunity, benefits which recent studies have confirmed are more powerful and likely outlast the vaccines. Since we're citing anecdotes, I must know a dozen friends, acquaintances, and at least one family member who followed this pattern. They ranged in age from 9 to 74, all were vaxxed (except maybe the young kids), some boosted but others not, but none of them had compromised immune systems or preexisting vulnerabilities (afaik).

As for Long Covid, I still haven't seen much with regard to Omicron -- probably still too early. I did run across an article the other day pointing out that scientists are still very much uncertain why this happens with some but not others (discussing prior variants), with the only consistency thus far focused on people with compromised immune systems. As for duration, the references are to weeks & months as opposed to years, but this is again likely due to insufficient data at this point.

The latest stats from the US seem to support this general optimism:

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~USA

New cases, hospital admissions & patients in ICU all peaked and dropping off rapidly. Deaths still climbing but nowhere near the peaks from the winter of 2020-21. People where I live are still masking where required or requested, and the public schools recently went to remote learning for a week (only) while Omicron was still surging. As mentioned above, other states which have long since abandoned such requirements aren't generally faring better or worse. At this point, I think it's less about complacency and more about a growing recognition of reality, with many policymakers looking increasingly behind the curve.

We can all only hope, but in the meantime Omicron -- according to the science and as many predicted -- appears to be providing a significant amount of immunity in populations that had less than ideal vax/booster rates.

[laird]

I get the impression that it's all go now , restrictions are being lifted on a world wide basis and governments have come to the conclusion that covid is going to be treated in a similar manner to flu , there is going to be an annual covid shot and unfortunately just like the flu an annual death toll

I've spoken to a few people whom have contracted omicron ,some say it's like a bad cold ,others report being laid low for three or four days

The majority of deaths in the UK ,according to Dr Campbell's research are those in their 80,s and those with contributing illnesses such as type 2 diabetes

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Does one anecdote deserve another? Sorry to say, here in the US I know just 4 people who were infected with Omicron. One has no lasting sequelae, two have lasting upper respiratory effects and modest fatigue. And the last one has serious lasting symptoms including extreme fatigue, upper respiratory symptoms and bad muscle soreness and pain.

Anecdotally then, three-quarters of the people I know have not recovered "just fine".

I think a better explanation may be that people have had it with two years of relative isolation, etc., and simply don't care anymore. Or call it confirmation bias of a general desperate need to believe it's over, when it clearly isn't.

At this point we surely need to start getting out - understandable - but to make this the least risky, we need to continue wearing masks, social distancing and being current with our vaccinations.

I recommend you stay home inside and protected based on those numbers for sure. Here is an honest, because you are not being honest, anecdote for consideration. I know approximately 20 people personally who have had Covid of various types and one of them is in hospital and perhaps going to die. He has several co-morbidities and I am guessing he decided not to get vaccinated though it seems wrong to ask.

If you feel like you have to control the messaging in this way, please give us an honest appraisal of the risk levels we face.

[Zippee]

Oh geez. Are we actually accusing one another of being dishonest? And on what basis? Perhaps the anonymity of the net promotes such. In my case the 4 people I cited are my neighbors and also my best friend and his wife, and I can assure the report was entirely accurate.

The reason I cited this anecdote was to emphasize that we don't have the data yet in re Omicron, and anecdotes - pro or con, and whether true or not - are really pretty meaningless.

If I may, I'd like to again address this as yet unsubstantiated notion that "the vast majority who get infected (with Omicron) are otherwise healthy and have, at worst, mild cold-like symptoms for 24-36 hours and then are fine". Certainly we all hope that, but we really have to stress that this extreme claim for Omicron lacks the data, and isn't even close to being understood or predictable in this very hopeful sense.

We can't say on one hand that Omicron "is mild and cold-like" on one hand, and at the same time stress that as yet, "we don't have the data". I'm particularly curious about the likewise unsupported claim that "natural immunity is more powerful and longer lasting than the vaccines".

That's quite a claim, and tied together with the unproven "mild, cold-like" claim, seems to be bordering on the promoting the cessation of vaccination or other known effective measures against Covid in general.

Is that so? Claims like these require real citations and links, not personal claims. My impressions are that we have no real data and/or citations to support them.