Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Oh geez. Are we actually accusing one another of being dishonest? And on what basis? Perhaps the anonymity of the net promotes such. In my case the 4 people I cited are my neighbors and also my best friend and his wife, and I can assure the report was entirely accurate.


.

Forgive me for the accusation.

There is nobody I know who only knows 4 people who have had Covid at this point. If you are not spinning these numbers to prove a point then I am truly sorry.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Forgive me for the accusation.

There is nobody I know who only knows 4 people who have had Covid at this point. If you are not spinning these numbers to prove a point then I am truly sorry.

I only knew one that's had covid. He died. Aged 51. Unvaxxed and a bit overweight.
Not even the kids has had covid and they all work in education. Fully vaxxed of course.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Oh geez. Are we actually accusing one another of being dishonest?

Been happening for at least a year.. suggest you go back and read the now closed Covid threads.. usually just comes from the one side.. hell I've even been called a liar outright which really pissed me off.
But I guess there's a lot off Trudeau's out there..

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Zippee

. . .

The reason I cited this anecdote was to emphasize that we don't have the data yet in re Omicron, and anecdotes - pro or con, and whether true or not - are really pretty meaningless.

If I may, I'd like to again address this as yet unsubstantiated notion that "the vast majority who get infected (with Omicron) are otherwise healthy and have, at worst, mild cold-like symptoms for 24-36 hours and then are fine". Certainly we all hope that, but we really have to stress that this extreme claim for Omicron lacks the data, and isn't even close to being understood or predictable in this very hopeful sense.

We can't say on one hand that Omicron "is mild and cold-like" on one hand, and at the same time stress that as yet, "we don't have the data". I'm particularly curious about the likewise unsupported claim that "natural immunity is more powerful and longer lasting than the vaccines".

That's quite a claim, and tied together with the unproven "mild, cold-like" claim, seems to be bordering on the promoting the cessation of vaccination or other known effective measures against Covid in general.

Is that so? Claims like these require real citations and links, not personal claims. My impressions are that we have no real data and/or citations to support them.

Your "impressions" are looking to be more & more incorrect, and it'd be helpful if you could apply your own requirements for citations when it comes to Long Covid and other personalized claims of yours that you so often demand from others.

Here's the citation again to the most recent stats (1/28-1/31) from the US I linked a couple of hours ago.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~USA

New cases/1M peaked a couple of days ago at around 2.5K, with hospital admissions at about 450 (assuming due to Covid and not incidental to Covid), with ICU patients at 80. All 3 metrics have since fallen significantly. Deaths (a lagging metric) are a bit shy of 8. So if my math is right, that's a 0.0032 death/case rate, a 0.032 ICU/case rate, and about a 0.2 hospitalization/case rate, all probably much inflated since there has been a much publicized shortage of testing resources that even the White House has acknowledged and is promising to rectify. Have you not heard?

The lack of data I referred to previously had little to do with widely acknowledged reports of mild, common cold symptoms, but the yet unknown claims of Long Covid from Omicron which you & Montanan have been propagating without support. The last few pages of this thread have cited and provided links to recent studies showing how much natural immunity had been underestimated, and this has been widely publicized as well. Are you not aware? Specifically, the studies from Israel, NY & CA, the latter two involving millions of people as recently published by the CDC:

"Between May and November 2021, people who were unvaccinated and did not have a prior COVID-19 infection remained at the highest risk of infection and hospitalization, while those who were previously infected, both with or without prior vaccination, had the greatest protection."

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-19-cases.html

Granted, these were studies done when Delta was predominant, but I find it hard for you to argue this may not apply to Omicron when you so easily assume that Long Covid in fact does. The absence of such data at this juncture applies both ways, does it not?

Even big city US mayors and health officials are beginning to recognize the reduced threat.

https://www.denverpost.com/2022/01/3...andate-lifted/

"Modeling has shown that lifting the mask mandate in Denver will not affect the trajectory of the current drop in COVID-19 cases, Bob McDonald, executive director of the Denver Department of Public Health and Environment, said during Monday’s briefing."

“Omicron has run out of fuel,” he said.

Yes, I agree not all the stats and data are in, but the relative mildness of Omicron comports with such data from around the world, and there is no evidence I'm aware of that the natural immunity it's producing wouldn't follow a similar pattern from earlier variants as well as other viruses where such data is in fact known. Why else would it be peaking so early and now on the decline? We have no guarantees of the future, obviously, but isn't it generally best to make assumptions based on probabilities rather than mere possibilities? How many elderly and vulnerable people die from the flu every year, the same flu which produces relatively mild symptoms for the vast majority of people who get infected, vaccinated or not?

While I am in no way suggesting dishonesty on your part (no reason to), I think it's only fair to ask where you're getting your information that's giving you such profoundly different "impressions"?

[PirateFoxy]

Originally Posted by Exile

And even the CDC has finally recognized the benefits of natural immunity, benefits which recent studies have confirmed are more powerful and likely outlast the vaccines.

1. Vaccine-induced immunity is no less natural than acquired immunity. Your immune system does exactly the same thing. The only difference is with vaccines your immune system is presented with a measured dose of something that CANNOT reproduce in your system (at least with the common vaccines, I am not aware of an attenuated Covid vaccine which could *theoretically* reproduce) while if you actually get Covid the virus gets to run around reproducing like crazy and doing whatever it wants while your immune system gets up to speed. We are not injecting nanobots into people.

2. The last data I saw suggested that Omicron is *not* resulting in significant protective immunity, and there is also some concern that Covid actually permanently harms your immune system, thus reducing your ability to deal with future infections. (All future infections, not just Covid.) This is based on what it’s been observed to do with T cells.

But mostly it’s not “natural” vs some other immunity. It’s acquired immunity vs vaccine induced immunity. Calling one natural and the other not is just wrong.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Anders

I only knew one that's had covid. He died. Aged 51. Unvaxxed and a bit overweight.
Not even the kids has had covid and they all work in education. Fully vaxxed of course.

I don't know anyone who has had covid. I do know of three 'adult children of friends' in the UK who have had non hospitalised cases.

[Wotname]

Covid cases has been running at around 1 in 50 here in Tasmania for three or four weeks now according to published state data and it is said (officially) to be probably higher. I believe the numbers to be correct.

I know significantly more than 50 people here and yet I don't know anyone with Covid. I reckon it depends on who you know, not what you know.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Just out on Travel Passes/Certificates..

The European Union (EU) Covid-19 Digital Certificate has an official validity of nine months for vaccination from Tuesday in the context of travel within the Community area and should also include information on booster doses.
As proposed by the European Commission and agreed by EU Member States in the Council, "from tomorrow [Tuesday] the new rules on a standard acceptance period of 270 days for eu Covid-19 Digital Certificates on the vaccination side used for travel within the EU are beginning to apply," the EU executive said in a statement.

Thus, "Member States must accept vaccination certificates for a period of 270 days - nine months - from the completion of the primary vaccination series", i.e. after the second two-dose vaccine or one in the case of a single dose, the institution explains, noting that countries should not adopt different time limits for travel within the EU.
https://www.cmjornal.pt/sociedade/de...de-terca-feira

This is the link from the European Commission’s website regarding this:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-...certificate_en

Although it is not stated, I think the same rule is likely to be eventually applied to other certificates as well for those travelling in the EU. Thanks for the heads up.

SWL

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Exile

Your "impressions" are looking to be more & more incorrect, and it'd be helpful if you could apply your own requirements for citations when it comes to Long Covid and other personalized claims of yours that you so often demand from others.

What is it about "not enough data" that you don't understand? Unlike you I cannot make citations to data that has yet to accumulate, and will not miscite sources as you have done. Ask me in two months.

Here's the citation again to the most recent stats (1/28-1/31) from the US I linked a couple of hours ago.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~USA

Oh my! Two days of data means almost nothing. Really.

New cases/1M peaked a couple of days ago at around 2.5K, with hospital admissions at about 450 (assuming due to Covid and not incidental to Covid), with ICU patients at 80. All 3 metrics have since fallen significantly. Deaths (a lagging metric) are a bit shy of 8. So if my math is right, that's a 0.0032 death/case rate, a 0.032 ICU/case rate, and about a 0.2 hospitalization/case rate, all probably much inflated since there has been a much publicized shortage of testing resources that even the White House has acknowledged and is promising to rectify. Have you not heard?

The shortage of tests does not support your personal observations, just the opposite. The shortage means your impressive low rates are, uh, really higher. Oops.

The lack of data I referred to previously had little to do with widely acknowledged reports of mild, common cold symptoms, but the yet unknown claims of Long Covid from Omicron which you & Montanan have been propagating without support.

Bushwa. I've been "propagating" nothing. Nada. Short of a flowering plant I've been watering. Cite the "widely acknowledged reports" - request #2. Again, "reports" are not data. Fer gawd's sake, you actually cite a shady city mayor's mask decision in support of your theories.

The last few pages of this thread have cited and provided links to recent studies showing how much natural immunity had been underestimated, and this has been widely publicized as well. Are you not aware? Specifically, the studies from Israel, NY & CA, the latter two involving millions of people as recently published by the CDC:

"Between May and November 2021, people who were unvaccinated and did not have a prior COVID-19 infection remained at the highest risk of infection and hospitalization, while those who were previously infected, both with or without prior vaccination, had the greatest protection."

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-19-cases.html

There you go again: this time a dated report from May to Nov 2021 - and - about Delta. Hint: it's Feb 2022 and were dealing with Omicron. And really - you oughta read the whole of your links. All your speculations over how Omicron must surely be similar to earlier viruses are contradicted in the same dated report, to wit:

"Viruses are constantly changing, including the virus that causes COVID-19. These changes occur over time and can lead to the emergence of new variants that have new characteristics, including ones that impact the level of immunity vaccination and/or prior infection can provide. The level of protection offered by vaccination and surviving a previous infection changed during the study period. Vaccination remains the safest strategy for protecting against COVID-19."


Granted, these were studies done when Delta was predominant, but I find it hard for you to argue this may not apply to Omicron when you so easily assume that Long Covid in fact does. The absence of such data at this juncture applies both ways, does it not?

See above. Your own dated Delta CDC report states the opposite. Read. I made NO such assumption in re long covid and Omicron, stop it. You have created this handy strawman for yourself. I have been a virtual broken record noting that without real long term data, NOTHING can be concluded. Let me try again: there's not enough data. Your continuing conclusions and speculations lack any real basis short of hopefulness.

Even big city US mayors and health officials are beginning to recognize the reduced threat.

https://www.denverpost.com/2022/01/3...andate-lifted/

"Modeling has shown that lifting the mask mandate in Denver will not affect the trajectory of the current drop in COVID-19 cases, Bob McDonald, executive director of the Denver Department of Public Health and Environment, said during Monday’s briefing."

“Omicron has run out of fuel,” he said.

Oh no Mr. Bill! You really just didn't quote this checkered city mayor as a source, did you? A little history over our dear city mayor (Denver). The short list: this guy criminalized homelessness. He misappropriated funds designed to help the homeless, and instead used them to evict them. He admitted sending sexual texts to a female subordinate. In November 2020, Hancock told his constituents to stay home and stay safe from Covid during Thanksgiving in 2020; however, he ignored his own advice and was caught flying on a commercial flight to Mississippi to visit family.

Great citations. You post these long diatribes using isolated, dated, limited and unqualified citations, and not even very many of these. If the "report" says what you believe - eg the shady city mayor ending mask use - you use it. Sorry, but I'm really not impressed.

Yes, I agree not all the stats and data are in, but the relative mildness of Omicron comports with such data from around the world, and there is no evidence I'm aware of that the natural immunity it's producing wouldn't follow a similar pattern from earlier variants as well as other viruses where such data is in fact known. Why else would it be peaking so early and now on the decline? We have no guarantees of the future, obviously, but isn't it generally best to make assumptions based on probabilities rather than mere possibilities? How many elderly and vulnerable people die from the flu every year, the same flu which produces relatively mild symptoms for the vast majority of people who get infected, vaccinated or not?

You back this up with nothing. Your misuse of the word "comport" is noted, and means to endure or put up with, as I am now regarding your misguided and self-serving diatribe. Comparing Covid to the flu again? Aw c'mon. Omicron peaking "so early and now on the decline"? What - based on your 2-day study? How many times have we all been disappointed when yet another wave emerged? You are aware of Omicron-2 and the distinct possibility that it will extend the current waves? Surely you know that Omicron can reinfect?

While I am in no way suggesting dishonesty on your part (no reason to), I think it's only fair to ask where you're getting your information that's giving you such profoundly different "impressions"?


The "dishonesty" was alleged by another poster - who then apologized, see above. It helps to actually read the posts.

I'd gladly share sources regarding any number of issues if I thought your "only fair request" was sincere and open-minded. I don't, ergo I won't. I have little interest in engaging in endless and ultimately useless exchanges with any posters whose minds are clearly made up, and whose positions are overstated, unsupported, mis-cited and delivered along with personal barbs and unnecessary challenges.

We'll just agree to disagree. Be well and be safe...

[El Pinguino]

Exile 'Here's the citation again to the most recent stats (1/28-1/31) from the US I linked a couple of hours ago.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~USA'


Zippee 'Oh my! Two days of data means almost nothing. Really.'

28th Jan 2020 to 31st Jan 2022 is a little longer than 2 days.

[Exile]

There are plenty of metrics, data and expert analysis pertaining to Omicron to look at, and plenty to support a positive trend albeit not conclusive, obviously.

Here's another interesting one concerning the "R" factor, i.e. reproduction rate. Move the cursor to have a look at, say 12/15/21 when Omicron started to take hold in the US (1.14), and compare it to March 2020 (3.64) as an example. You can then see the recent peak (1.69) and fall-off (.84). A familiar pattern at this point that is certainly not confined to the US.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...e&country=~USA

I wasn't aware of any controversy over the fact that new cases are being underreported due to a combination of mild symptoms not requiring hospitalization or a doctor's office visit, and a shortage of testing kits (in the US). This would mean there are larger numbers of total cases than the statistics have available to publish, meaning a lower rate of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. A simple example would be 100 reported new Covid cases resulting in 10 hospitalizations equaling a 10% hospitalization rate. But 200 actual (hypothetical) new cases resulting in the same 10 hospitalizations equaling a 5% hospitalization rate. The number of hospitalizations remain the same at 10, but the number of new cases exceeds what is being reported. The hospitalization rate is necessarily inflated and not the other way around. Have another look Zippee before slinging it my way again please.

And yes, there's no doubt it may be premature to declare Covid's demise, but one can fairly characterize what the evidence shows thus far as a positive trend. But if all else fails, apparently trying to discredit a big city mayor for claimed misdeeds unrelated to a policy decision re: Covid seems to suffice. I know nothing about this public official except the article says he is following the advice of his city's public health expert. Is this not what so many complain is failing to happen at the national level with Dr. Fauci et al? How is this different?

Once again we're seeing one-sided attacks on experts and individuals personally based on differences of opinion on policy. If you like the policy then you laud the official. If you disagree, then the expert (or person reporting on it) gets flogged. Unfortunately, an all too familiar pattern these days, and one which I can only hope more rational minds would not take seriously.

Things could certainly take an unexpected turn for the worse, and it may or may not be premature to let our guard down, but that doesn't justify ignoring growing evidence of a positive trend. If you disagree you are free to keep your mask on, stay quarantined, get your boosters, and disparage the unvaccinated if it makes you feel better, but it's looking more likely that much of the rest of the world is learning to live with the virus and trying to move on.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by PirateFoxy

1. Vaccine-induced immunity is no less natural than acquired immunity. Your immune system does exactly the same thing. The only difference is with vaccines your immune system is presented with a measured dose of something that CANNOT reproduce in your system (at least with the common vaccines, I am not aware of an attenuated Covid vaccine which could *theoretically* reproduce) while if you actually get Covid the virus gets to run around reproducing like crazy and doing whatever it wants while your immune system gets up to speed. We are not injecting nanobots into people.

2. The last data I saw suggested that Omicron is *not* resulting in significant protective immunity, and there is also some concern that Covid actually permanently harms your immune system, thus reducing your ability to deal with future infections. (All future infections, not just Covid.) This is based on what it’s been observed to do with T cells.

But mostly it’s not “natural” vs some other immunity. It’s acquired immunity vs vaccine induced immunity. Calling one natural and the other not is just wrong.

This distinction appears correct and is explained well, thanks. I don't think I referred to vaccine induced immunity as "not natural," but was using the same nomenclature re: "natural immunity" referenced in these latest studies from Israel, NY, CA, and as adopted by the CDC. In any event, the type of immunity these studies found were stronger and longer lasting than vaccine induced immunity were derived from prior infections, commonly referred to (rightly or wrongly) as "natural" immunity. If you have data or studies contradicting this then please post them.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

This is the link from the European Commission’s website regarding this:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-...certificate_en

Although it is not stated, I think the same rule is likely to be eventually applied to other certificates as well for those travelling in the EU. Thanks for the heads up.

SWL

This rule says that all member states must accept the covid pass for a minimum of 270 days when travelling within the EU. Travelling in to the EU each member state can do what they want. Many have a 270 days expiry and I suspect more countries will require it in the future.

[PirateFoxy]

Originally Posted by Exile

This distinction appears correct and is explained well, thanks. I don't think I referred to vaccine induced immunity as "not natural," but was using the same nomenclature re: "natural immunity" referenced in these latest studies from Israel, NY, CA, and as adopted by the CDC. In any event, the type of immunity these studies found were stronger and longer lasting than vaccine induced immunity were derived from prior infections, commonly referred to (rightly or wrongly) as "natural" immunity. If you have data or studies contradicting this then please post them.

I don’t think I’ve seen any studies yet that are far enough along in the peer review process to consider them truly reliable. Like many things with Covid it’s mostly looking at data as it comes in and trying to make educated guesses based on that just because with the rate Covid can spread you can’t wait until you’ve done the whole analysis process to issue preliminary guidance. So it’s mostly various people saying “we seem to be seeing this, be aware.”

I dislike “natural immunity” because it is basically a phrase that antivaxxers in general (pre-Covid) have been pushing for ages and it represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how vaccines work, and I don’t think any of us benefit from that sort of misunderstanding spreading around. That’s the same lack of knowledge that leads to people who are vaccinated thinking they’re surrounded by a magic force field and can do whatever they want with no issues, and then go around people who are high risk without any precautions. (I count as high risk due to medication, so it’s a bit personal.) This is not the first time I have disagreed with the CDC on messaging and I’m sure it won’t be the last. They make some very strange choices.

[GordMay]

Will Omicron end the pandemic?
Here’s what experts say
The variant’s rapid spread, different vaccine strategies, and varying levels of immunity worldwide, make the pandemic’s future difficult to model.
The World Health Organization, and others, have suggested the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant could signal the end of the pandemic, because of the short-term surge in immunity, that will follow.
Researchers warn that the situation remains volatile and difficult to model. Different vaccine strategies, types and take-up rates from country to country, as well as fluctuating rates of infection and recovery, have left a diverse immunological landscape.
So, how will it end? Not with Omicron, researchers predict. “This will not be the last variant, and so the next variant will have its own characteristics,” says infectious-diseases modeller Graham Medley.
More ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00210-7