Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Sure.

If you're going to shut it down, you have to shut it down, and quarantine without exception. If you're stuck on a cruise ship, you stay in quarantine until it safe to come off. Or come off to quarantine somewhere else. Citizenship has nothing to do with it.

The idea of shutting down travel only for non-citizens, or shutting down with two weeks notice may slow things down, but not nearly enough.

One might think that governments could figure this out, but its really more of a political problem than a scientific one, as people are going to cry that any measure is unfair.

This is a good point, and something I had forgotten about.

There are few civilized countries where the citizens don't have the legal right to come and go as they please, which cannot be infringed by the state. Many countries closed their borders to foreigners, but as far as I know, only four -- China, Russia, Australia and New Zealand -- barred their own citizens from coming and going.

And I'm afraid you're right -- without keeping your own citizens in, border closing will not be nearly as effective. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), this is not an instrument available to policymakers in most countries.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This is a good point, and something I had forgotten about.

There are few civilized countries where the citizens don't have the legal right to come and go as they please, which cannot be infringed by the state. Many countries closed their borders to foreigners, but as far as I know, only four -- China, Russia, Australia and New Zealand -- barred their own citizens from coming and going.

And I'm afraid you're right -- without keeping your own citizens in, border closing will not be nearly as effective. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it), this is not an instrument available to policymakers in most countries.

I know they don't really count but several South American countries did just that.
Notably Chile which stopped **all** citizens and permanent residents from leaving or returning during the Delta peak.

Australia didn't stop citizens and PRs returning - you just had to book a quarantine spot and they were thin on the ground.
Leaving? You just had to have a valid reason. I applied for a permit in about May - reason given - 'going back to my yacht' - had a permit within 8 hours- guess they thought I was a film star or maybe the other FH.
I never used it as the only flight I could find was a 40 hour one which involved a 20 hour layover in NY which didn't seem prudent in those pre-vaccine days.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Here are the outcomes in Europe so far (leaving out Eastern Europe which distorts the scale, since excess mortality there is much higher than Western and Northern Europe):


Attachment 252588


Difference between the Nordic countries, all under 1000 excess deaths per million, and the rest of Europe, all (except Ireland) over 1000 excess deaths, is striking.


Ireland and Italy are missing because the data is too old, at last report the rates were: Ireland 414 (as of 30 November 2021) and Italy (2 480 as of 3 October 2021).

The HSE ( Health Services Data ) is that 5952 people died from March 2020 to the 4th January

With 4.99 million population that equates to 1187 per million

Interesting if one removes the very large spike at the beginning , almost entirely due to the self imposed nursing home blunder where over 1000 people died ( April 2020) the rate falls to under 1000 per million with a big spike in January 2021

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I agree completely.

We have discussed the role of politics before.

There are two powerful forces which I think drove politics towards harsher measures, than were needed:

1. Need for politicians to appear to be "strong leaders"; "bold action" is always more politically profitable than policy which is nuanced and restrained, even if that "bold action" carries cost.

2. Disproportionate political influence of older white males who were terrified of the virus but not much afraid of the economic and other consequences of overly harsh measures, effect on children, and so forth. You can be damned sure that if policy had been being made by younger black women, there would not have been any stay at home orders.

The Nordic countries were fortunate in this because their systems provide for technocratic management of this kind of policy. Which I'm not necessarily advocating, because it is to some extent anti-democratic, to hand over decision making to unelected technocrats. But I think it worked well in this case. In Sweden and Finland, there is a constitutional principle of non-intereference in the work of the ministries, and the politicians have little influence over pandemic policy. That's how those countries got profoundly science-driven and unpolitical decisions on pandemic policy. Denmark and Norway don't have this legal mechanism, but the culture is the same, and the politicians typically keep their hands off. A notable exception was the decision in Denmark to (briefly) close schools, overriding a decision of the health authority which had decided that it wasn't worth the harm to children. When it came out that this decision had been interfered with, there was quite a scandal in Denmark about it. There is also less antagonism between political parties in the Nordic countries, which tend to close ranks and work together in a crisis, rather than trying to use the crisis to score points. In the absence of this antagonism and points-scoring, there is no need for political leaders to posture as "strong leaders", and it's easier to make nuanced policy which might otherwise be characterized as "weak" or "indecisive".

You cannot really make this claim

Ireland was almost completely run by NPHET, the emergency public health team , the gov followed its advice largely to the letter with one exception where it opened up the lockdown for Christmas 2021 and that resulted in dire consequences.

Secondly the general trend in Ireland was for politicians to try and resist stronger lockdown measure demanded by public health but the public had far more faith in NPHET then the gov

I’d much prefer to be ruled by democratically inept politicians the seemingly competent un elected officials

[goboatingnow]

There’s no evidence that with the exception of NZ which is a unique case , was that travel bans achieved anything

1. By the time the initial extent of the first infection wave was realised a travel ban was too late

2. Unlike NZ. Lots of European countries have land borders with essential truck traffic. Ireland has 20,000 trucks arriving/departing by sea a week , it has a land border with another country and it has to maintain certain vital airlinks.

It’s simply not a feasible strategy. Delta showed that

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

…..
Australia didn't stop citizens and PRs returning - you just had to book a quarantine spot and they were thin on the ground….

Not accurate. For a time Aussie citizens and PRs were banned from returning from India.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, a couple of things writtten here are contrary to experiences in the rest of the world.


First of all, Ireland is the only country in Europe outside of the Nordic region with cumulative excess mortality of less than 1000 per million, so a uniquely good outcome in terms of death. Ireland is the only country in Europe outside of the Nordic region with a better outcome than Sweden.



Second, if schoolchildren were really not harmed in Ireland by school closures, that is an absolutely unique case. The devastation to children, not only in terms of permanently lost learning, but in terms of social development, abuse, and even nutrition, is very well documented elsewhere and is not controversial.


What concerns "government conspiracy" -- who has suggested that? The political aspect of this involves stimulating, through fear, demand for restrictions among the public. So the public itself clamoring to be "locked down" is part of the whole ugly complex; next after that is neighbors turning each other in for minor violations of restrictions, calling each other "rat-lickers" and such in fear and loathing, and it goes downhill from there. Not saying that this is what happened in Ireland; probably not, but it happened in a lot of places, and that's what we were talking about.


Residential property prices are soaring all over the world. This is asset price inflation, one of the harbingers of a general inflationary period which is the final result of the gigantic expansion of the money supply used around the world in hopes of preventing the pandemic from causing a general economic collapse. This is not indeed a good thing -- nothing to be happy about! The only winners here will be people owning property which is highly leveraged with fixed rate long term debt, since inflation will wipe away the debt. Even property owners will lose in the end, if they are unleveraged, because their equity in real terms will not increase, and the increase in value of their property will not compensate from harm of inflation of everything else. Property owners with variable rate mortgages will be screwed and may lose their property; young people, renters, and buyers will be royally screwed. Not enough people are still around who experienced the 70's and 80's that there is widespread understanding of how bad this will be.

I fully accept that fear was a factor. But Ireland is an interesting study as it adopted quite stringent NPI measures which resulted in Nordic style outcomes.

Teachers ( and my wife is one) will tell you many children enjoyed being at home , schools in Ireland mainly don’t offer meals , kids benefitted from being at home with work at home parents , there was a huge rise in home cooking

The was a massive rise in the use of out door recreational facilities , distinctly family orientated , walk trails , sea activities , inland boating etc were all extremely busy with Irish families. Ireland is largely a coastal community

Children adapted quickly to online learning , other then disturbance to state examinations , teachers report anecdotally that for the generality of students there was little learning loss. The groups that suffered were largely those from socially disadvantaged backgrounds or those with learning difficulties. But these are not the generality of kids, they represent a small proportion

Ireland never really moved to seriously curtail small children meeting or even small groups of teenagers , like many “ rules” in Ireland , people complied with their own interpretation. Most of Ireland NPIs were advisory.

What I don’t accept is that lockdown was Foisted on people by power crazy politicians or some form of desire for extra civilian control

Presenting the Nordic cases as if they are a model of how laws prevent interference is entirely misplaced

It’s largely that in many Nordic countries public policy was simply different , this is also true of NZ.

What I don’t accept is it’s anything specifically “ Nordic “

Ireland implemented ( with yet to examined efficiency ) various NPIs. The legal interventions were largely directed at the hospitality sector. ( this was required because this sector needed legal cover or breach of contract situations could have arisen )

Hence lockdowns in Ireland were completely and utterly driven by the public health technocrats , in a handful of instances politicians only interfered IN EVERY CASE , to override and mitigate the measures not make then more severe.

The two clear cases of interference to tighten restrictions were the public clamour to close the airport and for a period the schools despite public health officials claiming they were safe.

Whether Ireland is an outlier remains to be seen

It’s certainly an outlier when it comes to social cohesion , and faith in politicians ( our prime minister is an ex teacher and the deputy pm is a doctor , who manned contact phones during the pandemic ) and faith in the instititions of the state.

Like Tegnell in Sweden Doctor Houlihan the head of NPHET had enormous standing and wielded way more power then was correct largely due to his daily briefings to the public , his constant appearance in the media etc it actually got to a point where the government got jealous.

To suggest that politicians acted to appear “ bold and decisive “ is nonsense most countries have no living memory of this type of response , most governments bumbled through this , dealing with an unknown threat , conflicting health advice , it was largely “ make it up as you go along “ certainly in Ireland the blows wear softened by extraordinary amounts of money pumped directly into people’s pockets

There is simply no evidence of some grand design , or infringements of people rights or overarching or over reaching state policy . The public demanded action , they got the usual compromised results after the usual lobbying etc

In Ireland politicians spent much of the time apologising and lifting restrictions the minute they got got favourable public health advice.

The other thing is that country to country comparisons on deaths etc are largely impossible. Countries had entirely different criteria for recording Covid deaths

Hence drawing the conclusions made by such comparisons maybe entirely misleading

Hence in Ireland it was the public health technocrats that imposed severity and the politicians that struggled to reduce that severity not the other way around.

It’s entirely misleading to suggest in many countries this was politically controlled lockdowns. It wasn’t , in Europe it was mainly technocratic intervention not political.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

You cannot really make this claim

Ireland was almost completely run by NPHET, the emergency public health team , the gov followed its advice largely to the letter with one exception where it opened up the lockdown for Christmas 2021 and that resulted in dire consequences.

Secondly the general trend in Ireland was for politicians to try and resist stronger lockdown measure demanded by public health but the public had far more faith in NPHET then the gov

I’d much prefer to be ruled by democratically inept politicians the seemingly competent un elected officials

I never said the same thing happened everywhere, nor did I claim to understand anything about Ireland. Based on what you write here, Ireland is not an example of the behavior of politicians elsewhere.

Ireland seems like a politically healthier place than many. But whether the public health agencies in Ireland had the right ideas or not, I also don't know. But I guess you can't argue with the outcome, which was the best in Europe outside of the Nordic countries.

As to the hazards of rule by unelected bureaucracies -- I mentioned this myself. That it worked well in the Nordic countries during this crisis does not indeed mean that it is a good formula for all cases. If one believes in democracy, of course.

[goboatingnow]

My own view is that stringent NPIs didn’t work effectively , NZ cannot be used as a general model. In particular the fortress mentality simply isn’t practical for many countries that rely on inter links with other countries.

What’s clear here in Ireland in terms of cases ( well up to Omicron) is that Social distancing worked in reducing case numbers and hence hospital admissions . Whether that was legally mandated or not.

Most of the other measures ( mask wearing etc , travel etc ) did not achieve anything like similar results.

What’s also apparent is that Covid had marked different outcomes in countries even those that had similar NPIs. It will take time to analyse the situation ( if ever !

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . . What I don’t accept is that lockdown was Foisted on people by power crazy politicians or some form of desire for extra civilian control

Presenting the Nordic cases as if they are a model of how laws prevent interference is entirely misplaced . . .

Not saying this happened everywhere. It did however happen in many places, particularly in some states in the U.S., but also in some European countries, possibly in Australia. And I never said it's "some form of desire for extra civilian control" -- although some have made such accusations. I think it's more about politicians making political hay out of the crisis, stoking fear and making themselves look like strong leaders. It's not "power craziness"; it's simply politics, and political careers, image, reputation, etc.


As to the Nordic system of ministerial indepedence -- I never said it was a "model". On the contrary, I noted specifically that it is hazardous in a democracy. I mentioned it only to present a full picture of how things went down in our region -- this system played a big role. Of course it's not the only way you get technocratic policymaking -- widespread public trust in the science, and politicians who culturally defer to it, can get the same result, and possibly in a less dangerous way.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . . .


The other thing is that country to country comparisons on deaths etc are largely impossible. Countries had entirely different criteria for recording Covid deaths

Hence drawing the conclusions made by such comparisons maybe entirely misleading. . .

That's why I was posting tables of EXCESS MORTALITY, rather than covid deaths. There is a general consensus that country-to-country comparisons based on excess mortality are quite valid, as to the overall demographic impact of the pandemic. That being said, methods of counting Covid deaths have been largely harmonized based on WHO criteria, so most civilized countries have Covid death statistics which line up pretty well with excess mortality, so this is not an entirely invalid basis for comparison, either, but longer term and bigger picture comparisons are better done on the basis of excess mortality.

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

. . .Hence in Ireland it was the public health technocrats that imposed severity and the politicians that struggled to reduce that severity not the other way around.


It’s entirely misleading to suggest in many countries this was politically controlled lockdowns. It wasn’t , in Europe it was mainly technocratic intervention not political.

Just because it wasn't like that in Ireland, doesn't mean that it didn't happen elsewhere. Fear-driven politics played a big role in many countries in choice of measures which in hindsight we will understand were unnecessarily harsh and damaging to some demographics, which we are already starting to understand.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I never said the same thing happened everywhere, nor did I claim to understand anything about Ireland. Based on what you write here, Ireland is not an example of the behavior of politicians elsewhere.

Ireland seems like a politically healthier place than many. But whether the public health agencies in Ireland had the right ideas or not, I also don't know. But I guess you can't argue with the outcome, which was the best in Europe outside of the Nordic countries.

As to the hazards of rule by unelected bureaucracies -- I mentioned this myself. That it worked well in the Nordic countries during this crisis does not indeed mean that it is a good formula for all cases. If one believes in democracy, of course.

Ireland is in practice run among very similar lines to the Nordic countries ( not surprising given the history and the genetic base of a huge proportion of the population ) , it’s a cohesive social democratic population aided by a wealthy economic base , and largely highly educated populations rather like Finland.

This is supplemented by a very socially cohesive society and very little immigrant tension ( yet we have ¼ of the population as non national )

In fact I would say there’s much more social tension in Sweden from my experiences working there.

The other thing is the respect the elderly have. Ireland social support schemes mean it’s one of the best places to be old in the world.

Since Covid bore down on the elderly, the public response in Ireland was that measures were entirely acceptable to protect the vulnerable elderly , everyone has a mother , everyone knows people in care homes , politicians including.

Very little public opposition was displayed , it was literally protested on the streets by a mere handful ( which the police tolerated even when such gatherings were not lawful ) Ireland is not an country to use mass resistance lightly we have to be pushed very very far before public opposition spills onto the streets.

The first set of NPIs were accepted enthusiastically by the public , in fact self compliance and a degree of social stigmatisation and or gentle pressure resulted in massive compliance. Mandatory masks where required were embraced enthusiastically for example with ( tothis day ) massive compliance.

The enormous amounts of economic support softened the blow on business and those on forlough, for many part time gig workers they earned far more by this method then from their original jobs.

Business got massive grants to continue to employ workers that were unable to work. Etc

Hence the economic pain actually never materialised Ireland is one of the few countries which grew economically throughout the pandemic. ( helped by a dominance of big tech and pharma )

Personally I dislike any form of technocratic rule,however efficient .I want my inept , bumbling , but democratic politicians to take decisions. I reject utterly the conspiracy theories that suggest such decisions ( NPIs) were political , driven by power or some other nefarious tin foil hat schemes.

The overall summary here

No economic effects ( in fact positive ones )
Little impact long term on children

A profound change in mindset around work /life balance especially around childcare and work
Working from home can work well can aid that balance

( Ireland has no subsidised childcare )

Mistakes made. Of course , a public weary , yes in part ( we missed our pubs !!)

Outright Good things

We banned church attendances for a while.

And as against “perfidious Albany “, we vaccinated ultimately faster and to a huge degree more completely then they did despite ( or because ) of the initial supply chain issues.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

I know they don't really count but several South American countries did just that.
Notably Chile which stopped **all** citizens and permanent residents from leaving or returning during the Delta peak.

Australia didn't stop citizens and PRs returning - you just had to book a quarantine spot and they were thin on the ground.
Leaving? You just had to have a valid reason. I applied for a permit in about May - reason given - 'going back to my yacht' - had a permit within 8 hours- guess they thought I was a film star or maybe the other FH.
I never used it as the only flight I could find was a 40 hour one which involved a 20 hour layover in NY which didn't seem prudent in those pre-vaccine days.

Thanks; I hadn't known about South America.


As to Australia's stopping citizens from returning -- there were quotas and months-long backlogs. The freedom of citizens to come home might not have been shut down entirely, but it was severely restricted in a way which did not happen in other developed countries. Whether it was worth it or not, I can't say -- possibly this measure was the very one which produced the excellent outcome in Australia. But would not be legally possible in most developed countries.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Thanks; I hadn't known about South America.


As to Australia's stopping citizens from returning -- there were quotas and months-long backlogs. The freedom of citizens to come home might not have been shut down entirely, but it was severely restricted in a way which did not happen in other developed countries. Whether it was worth it or not, I can't say -- possibly this measure was the very one which produced the excellent outcome in Australia. But would not be legally possible in most developed countries.

The Australian experience is definitely an outlier , a very late and then selectively severe NPI strategy , rendered partially ineffective by the federal system and a poor initial handling of the vaccine process.

I think it’s best left as an outlier and no doubt the analysis and recriminations will continue for years.

No democratic country should or could abandon its residents ( not just its citizens ) abroad. Ireland most certainly didn’t and actually went to extraordinary efforts to ensure their national residents could get home ( there was a huge tendency for people to want to come home especially at the beginning , I know people left jobs to come home )

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

My own view is that stringent NPIs didn’t work effectively , NZ cannot be used as a general model. In particular the fortress mentality simply isn’t practical for many countries that rely on inter links with other countries.

What’s clear here in Ireland in terms of cases ( well up to Omicron) is that Social distancing worked in reducing case numbers and hence hospital admissions . Whether that was legally mandated or not.

Most of the other measures ( mask wearing etc , travel etc ) did not achieve anything like similar results.

What’s also apparent is that Covid had marked different outcomes in countries even those that had similar NPIs. It will take time to analyse the situation ( if ever !

I completely agree with all of this.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Thanks; I hadn't known about South America.


As to Australia's stopping citizens from returning -- there were quotas and months-long backlogs. The freedom of citizens to come home might not have been shut down entirely, but it was severely restricted in a way which did not happen in other developed countries. Whether it was worth it or not, I can't say -- possibly this measure was the very one which produced the excellent outcome in Australia. But would not be legally possible in most developed countries.

It’s not about legal limits. Ireland current constitution affords public health measures almost unlimited freedom of action , its noticeable by its presence all through the constitution. Perhaps it’s a legacy of the famine etc who knows

It’s about political and moral decency , a good government tries to balance restrictions and freedoms ,trying to get the job done without imposing on the citizens an overly restrictive burden

Ireland could have legally stranded it’s residents abroad. But the concept would be unthinkable.

I could see it here in Ireland. As I said the tendency of politicians here was to mitigate the public health advice not make it more burdensome . This lead to a well publicised debacle around Christmas 2020 which handled the public health technocrats even more moral authority

Covid challenged us and found us wanting , we resorted to almost medieval approach’s when our history has been scientific . It also showed how the modern interlinked globalised world fell apart very rapidly, thankfully in the EU a semblance of common thinking survived even if the restrictions on movement has a worrying after effect for the “ four freedoms “

We live and learn , we learnt science can move mountains when needed , that the public can and do have faith in institutions of the state even while accepting they are imperfect , we learned that public pressure can lead to bad decisions ( though that’s not new )

We also were shown that countries in internal conflict like the USA and less so the U.K. are a shining model of what not to do.

The public cannot afford to dismiss politics and politicians as either irelevant , inept , dishonest or involved in “ grand plans “ politics and politicians matter , it’s not a reality TV show despite Boris’s best efforts. It has real impact on people. We need to stay involved, the middle ground mustn’t walk away or hand the agenda to the extremists or those extremists will be at the capitals gates ( or it’s doors ) soon enough