Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by dannc

I don't think many countries, or in the US, states, have done a great job keeping the virus out of nursing homes. The elderly is where the fatality numbers are being generated. He in NC, at first, there were few reported virus cases in the nursing homes. Then it went from less than a dozen homes, then a couple of dozen places, followed by 40 and the last I heard, 75 homes. This has driven up the number of known cases and fatalities. Last time I checked, most of the fatalities in my county are from the nursing homes.

The same thing is happening in Ireland, I think Northern Ireland, and the Netherlands.

To be fair, how do you keep it out? The homes I have seen and read about have closed off access to everyone but staff. The staff seem to be bringing it in. I have read reports of shortages of PPE but not sure that applies to all cases/homes.

The virus getting into nursing homes has been happening in many countries.

Later,
Dan

A big determiner of outcomes in nursing homes is their size. There is carnage in nursing homes wherever they are big.


The Swedes -- as is their culture -- have been quite forthright about their failure to protect nursing homes, but you are right, and this is a failure which you can see in a lot of places around the world.


It's pretty tragic. 90% of the deaths have been people over 70 and the median age is 85, but that last year or two or five of life is no less precious than any other, and maybe more in some cases. My own father is 91 and I am worried sick about him. He's in good health and with a perfectly clear mind and might live another 10 years even, if this damned thing doesn't kill him.

[GTom]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

A fantasy interpretation.


Herd immunity is the ONLY way epidemics end. That's how vaccines work.


Vaccines are just a simulation of having already been sick with it. So either enough people get sick that the spread slows down, or if you manage to have a vaccine, you can do the same thing without the sickness. A lot is made of that extent of herd immunity where the epidemic is snuffed out, but at a far earlier stage than that, the epidemic is slowed down, and we saw that in Lombardy BEFORE the lockdown.



There was no dig at Sweden in those remarks other than in the fantasy of the writer. Some countries or regions are further along with herd immunity -- Lombardy, New York State, Spain. Others are far behind. Sweden is somewhere in the middle. We are just at the beginning of this thing.


If you want to see herd immunity at work, look at the curve of infections (or deaths) of New York State compared to the U.S. as a whole. Sooner or later, a certain percentage (70%?) of everyone will get it, and a certain percentage of those will die. It is not at all clear that New York State, with the world's worst statistics SO FAR, will actually come out worse than others, at the end of the day. Delaying does not necessarily mean preventing.

There is another way, some viruses, including this one, are mutating, evolving. Usually to less dangerous forms. May happen, that within a year covid-19 will be just another common cold virus.

BTW as covid-19 mutates, herd immunity developed this year might become completely useless for the next turn...

[barnakiel]

France extending the covid-controls ...



Or perhaps just trying to repress the 'gilets jaunes' movement?


France is an imperialist power, they are using the holy covid mess to control and repress, just as much as any other state does. I have heard of one country trying to start a conflict with China now, to veil their own ignorance and superiority complex.



Except for the few countries that believe that informed and free citizens are better off left to decide for themselves.



I think we feared covid, but the post covid world may be what we should be truly afraid of.


???



b.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Barbaria

Sorry but that newspaper must have misprinted the dates. I have not seen any indication on these dates for Norway. Beware of fake news.

On the same day, April 30, Sweden also announced that it would extend its border controls for a period of six more months, based on the Government’s assessment that there remains a serious threat to Sweden’s internal security and public policy.

The controls will continue until November 11, 2020, in accordance with common EU legislation.

“Sweden must retain internal border controls. The head of the Swedish Security Service has decided not to change the assessment of the terrorist threat level, which remains elevated. Border controls at internal borders can help detect potential perpetrators and in this way also help prevent terrorist attacks. Shortcomings also persist in the control of the external borders across the Schengen Area” the Swedish Minister for Home Affairs Mikael Damberg said regarding the decision.

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/new...ernal-borders/


Temporarily reintroduced border controls in the context of foreseeable events:

Hungary (12 May – 11 November 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal land and air borders;
Spain (10 May - 24 May 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all land borders;
Finland (19 March - 14 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Lithuania (14 May – 31 May 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Czechia (14 May – 13 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; land borders with Austria and Germany, air borders;
Austria (8 May - 31 May 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; land borders with Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Slovakia and Czechia;
Belgium (19 May - 8 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Switzerland (14 May – 8 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal air and land borders except from borders with Liechtenstein;
Austria (12 May 2020 - 11 November 2020)
Secondary movements, risk related to terrorists and organized crime, situation at the external borders; land borders with Hungary and with Slovenia;
Sweden (12 May - 11 November 2020)
Terrorist threats, shortcomings at the external borders; to be determined but may concern all internal borders;
Denmark (12 May – 12 November 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19 (to the extent necessary), terrorist threats, organized criminality; all internal borders;
France (1 May - 31 October 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; continuous terrorist threat and risk of terrorists using the vulnerability of States due to COVID-19 pandemics; support to measures aiming at containing the spread of virus; all internal borders;
Norway (12 May - 11 November 2020)
Terrorist threats, secondary movements; ports with ferry connections with Denmark, Germany and Sweden;
Norway (15 May – 13 August 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Germany (12 May - 11 November 2020)
Secondary movements, situation at the external borders; land border with Austria.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/wh...der-control_en


Member States’ notifications of the temporary reintroduction
of border control at internal borders
pursuant to Article 25 and 28 et seq. of the Schengen Borders Code

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/si...control_en.pdf

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by GTom

There is another way, some viruses, including this one, are mutating, evolving. Usually to less dangerous forms. May happen, that within a year covid-19 will be just another common cold virus.

BTW as covid-19 mutates, herd immunity developed this year might become completely useless for the next turn...

Yep.


One that we do not know how long, if at all, the immunity lasts (even to a single unmutated starin). While we know there are by now at least two strains.


Two, according to recent media reports, only some 1 to 10% of us has have had it, likely closer to the lower end of the range.

Herd immunity, when and if works, takes large population shares to be immune - say some 50% give or take.


Doh.



But a vaccine would help.

Also, a s good virus depressing coctail a'la HIV cocktail could help. My worry is such cocktails while available to Twittler and our polititians and businessmen are still to expensive for the average joe (that's me).


So here waiting for some sort of decently effective vaccine to become available asap.


b.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

.......
The common cold is a coronavirus and there is no vaccine and very little acquired immunity -- because it mutates so fast. This coronavirus apparently mutates much more slowly, so let's hope.

I guess the above statement depends on one's definition of the common cold.

Often the term is used for the illness cause by one of the many strains of the rhinovirus. AFAIK, the rhinovirus does not mutate quickly but there is at least 160 different strains out there which is one the principle reasons there is no vaccine or cure.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...mmon-cold-yet/

The influenza virus does mutate quickly.

Some coronaviruses mutate quickly, others not so much. The problem with the current coronavirus appears to have jumped the species barrier recently and we don't yet know enough about it - yet.

[Barbaria]

Originally Posted by Montanan

On the same day, April 30, Sweden also announced that it would extend its border controls for a period of six more months, based on the Government’s assessment that there remains a serious threat to Sweden’s internal security and public policy.

The controls will continue until November 11, 2020, in accordance with common EU legislation.

“Sweden must retain internal border controls. The head of the Swedish Security Service has decided not to change the assessment of the terrorist threat level, which remains elevated. Border controls at internal borders can help detect potential perpetrators and in this way also help prevent terrorist attacks. Shortcomings also persist in the control of the external borders across the Schengen Area” the Swedish Minister for Home Affairs Mikael Damberg said regarding the decision.

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/new...ernal-borders/


Temporarily reintroduced border controls in the context of foreseeable events:

Hungary (12 May – 11 November 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal land and air borders;
Spain (10 May - 24 May 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all land borders;
Finland (19 March - 14 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Lithuania (14 May – 31 May 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Czechia (14 May – 13 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; land borders with Austria and Germany, air borders;
Austria (8 May - 31 May 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; land borders with Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Slovakia and Czechia;
Belgium (19 May - 8 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Switzerland (14 May – 8 June 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal air and land borders except from borders with Liechtenstein;
Austria (12 May 2020 - 11 November 2020)
Secondary movements, risk related to terrorists and organized crime, situation at the external borders; land borders with Hungary and with Slovenia;
Sweden (12 May - 11 November 2020)
Terrorist threats, shortcomings at the external borders; to be determined but may concern all internal borders;
Denmark (12 May – 12 November 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19 (to the extent necessary), terrorist threats, organized criminality; all internal borders;
France (1 May - 31 October 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; continuous terrorist threat and risk of terrorists using the vulnerability of States due to COVID-19 pandemics; support to measures aiming at containing the spread of virus; all internal borders;
Norway (12 May - 11 November 2020)
Terrorist threats, secondary movements; ports with ferry connections with Denmark, Germany and Sweden;
Norway (15 May – 13 August 2020)
Coronavirus COVID-19; all internal borders;
Germany (12 May - 11 November 2020)
Secondary movements, situation at the external borders; land border with Austria.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/wh...der-control_en


Member States’ notifications of the temporary reintroduction
of border control at internal borders
pursuant to Article 25 and 28 et seq. of the Schengen Borders Code

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/si...control_en.pdf

I think you misunderstand the information above.

As expected Norway has from 12th of May eased the border control for persons from within the EU now allowing family members and people with property into Norway. We expect that Denmark and Finland will follow with approximately the same on Friday. Borders in Sweden are open for all travel for EU persons.

The official government information (In Norwegian):

https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokume...sen/id2702432/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I guess the above statement depends on one's definition of the common cold.

Often the term is used for the illness cause by one of the many strains of the rhinovirus. AFAIK, the rhinovirus does not mutate quickly but there is at least 160 different strains out there which is one the principle reasons there is no vaccine or cure.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...mmon-cold-yet/

The influenza virus does mutate quickly.

Some coronaviruses mutate quickly, others not so much. The problem with the current coronavirus appears to have jumped the species barrier recently and we don't yet know enough about it - yet.

Thanks for the correction!

[GTom]

Originally Posted by Barbaria

I think you misunderstand the information above.

As expected Norway has from 12th of May eased the border control for persons from within the EU now allowing family members and people with property into Norway. We expect that Denmark and Finland will follow with approximately the same on Friday. Borders in Sweden are open for all travel for EU persons.

The official government information (In Norwegian):

https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokume...sen/id2702432/

That's still far from regular tourism/people with no family or work ties visiting the country Fully understand though, they don't want to import new cases.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GTom

That's still far from regular tourism/people with no family or work ties visiting the country Fully understand though, they don't want to import new cases.

Tourism is in an induced coma with no definite plans for revival. The Finnish border will open only for "employment related business travel" so far. The Danish border is closed at least until 1 June.



It's looking like border closing will be the last restriction to be lifted. Bad news for us. God help the airline industry, the hospitality sector, everywhere, including the Nordic region.

[Barbaria]

Originally Posted by GTom

That's still far from regular tourism/people with no family or work ties visiting the country Fully understand though, they don't want to import new cases.

Yes that is right, but for us with international families it is a huge relief. With the approach Norway has taken (fight the virus), and the cost involved, it would be strange to suddenly open up for all. I don’t think they have a clear plan on how to, yet.

For us, being EU citizens, we hope that sailing within the EU will be open during the summer. It looks promising

http://www.estelashipping.es/coronav...utical-sector/

[Montanan]

Borders still closed to tourism
However, it is still not clear when international borders will reopen. Denmark shuttered its international border to non-residents in mid-March, with Norway following suit just days later. While airports remain open in both countries, only citizens and residents are permitted to enter. Some exceptions are possible, but international tourism has essentially been banned for almost two months.

That seems set to continue. Many in the travel industry are preparing for a summer season focused almost entirely on domestic tourism.

Not a priority for Danish PM
Denmark’s prime minister said the reopening of borders to non-residents is not top of the priority list. "A border opening can mean that many people come to Denmark. It may help to move the infection in a negative direction. Of course, the borders must also be seen in the context of what is happening in the countries around us,"

Denmark’s Economic Expert Group recommends that any border opening be coordinated with the closest neighboring countries. Flensburg Avis previously suggested that Denmark’s land border with Germany could reopen as early as May 15. At the latest press conference, Fredriksen said that a date had not been set, but the borders would not open until “at least” June 1.


The Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg declined to give a date, but hinted that any border reopening would depend heavily on the situation in other countries. She extended the travel advice for Norwegians that no foreign travel should take place unless absolutely necessary, but did reduce the home quarantine period for those arriving home from abroad from 14 to 10 days.

Of course, even if borders were to open in June, there are far fewer flights than normal. Norwegian has announced it will be operating in “hibernation mode” for the remainder of 2020 with just a handful of domestic services in operation. British Airways have said they won't resume flights until July.

[Dockhead]

The Danish State Serum Institute thinks second wave is unlikely in Denmark despite lifting of restrictions:


https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/mo...?app_mode=true


The basic reproduction rate is presently 0.7.


Can it really be under control to that extent in Denmark? Seems hard to believe, but we can hope. In any case, life returns pretty much to normal in Denmark other than the bloody borders which are STILL closed


In Sweden the number of patients in intensive care has fallen to 400 from a peak of 515. So intensive care is about 65% empty. That is for the country as a whole, however. Stockholm hospitals are coping but are pretty full. I know someone from the Danish health ministry whose friend runs a hospital in Stockholm -- apparently it's a tough time.



Finland opened its borders for business travel today.



No word on complete border openings, but yesterday the EU came out with recommendations to open all internal borders by 15 June for all kinds of travel. The aim is to allow normal vacation travel within the EU.



Germany has had an increase in cases, with basic reproduction rate back up over 1. German borders are opening except so far with Poland and Denmark.

[tp12]

Sweden, with a population of ~10,100,000 people is 91st on the global leaderboard for population.

It has moved up to 9th on the global leaderboard for deaths/million of population per country.

It has also moved up to 15th on the global leaderboard for TOTAL DEATHS per country.

Still really high in deaths per infection, too. Case fatality rate, this is called, and Sweden is 2nd globally.

[GTom]

Originally Posted by tp12

Sweden, with a population of ~10,100,000 people is 91st on the global leaderboard for population.

It has moved up to 9th on the global leaderboard for deaths/million of population per country.

It has also moved up to 15th on the global leaderboard for TOTAL DEATHS per country.

Still really high in deaths per infection, too. Case fatality rate, this is called, and Sweden is 2nd globally.

Despite they haven't changed policy their daily numbers are not growing since mid-April, even a little decrease can be seen. Yet, they are far from herd immunity, less than 1/5th of the population met with the virus.