Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Zippee]

Dockhead's Katelyn Jetelina, Epidemiologist just released a terrific article on relative risk, putting things in good perspective. As she so well puts it:

"Contextualizing really small numbers and really large numbers is close to impossible for human brains, so communicating risk accurately and without bias is crucial. But lack of risk communication isn’t because of bureaucratic timidity. It’s because risk is multidimensional, complicated to quantify, and even more difficult to communicate. This is especially true with infectious diseases, as risk changes with time and varies across different people, and individual-level risk needs to be weighed with population-level risk.
Nonetheless, this post is an attempt to answer this challenge; an attempt to help you think about the quantitative, average risk of COVID-19 from multiple perspectives."

A must read that may finally put risk in real perspective:
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/
(Click on "Let me read it first")


But an excerpt worth posting:

"The chances that you show up to an event and someone has COVID-19 (whether they know it or not) are dependent on level of community transmission and number of people at that location. For example, let’s say we have 15 people at my office in Texas. What is the chance that at least one person in the group was COVID-19 positive during the Omicron wave? This depends on where we were at during the wave:

• Peak: There was a 99.5% chance that at least one person in the group was positive
• Halfway down the peak: 91.3% chance
• Tail end of the peak (where Texas currently is): 54% chance
• End of the Omicron wave: 14% chance

The more people you have and the more transmission you have, the more likely the virus is there, too."

Paying attention to science is worth our time...

[Montanan]

I'm looking forward to the day when Omicron, is Omigone.

And hoping there is not a Newmicron.

Anyone else feeling that way.

[boatman61]

I'm just doing what I've always done..
Yesterdays a memory..
Todays an activity..
Tomorrows a fantasy..

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Montanan

I'm looking forward to the day when Omicron, is Omigone.

And hoping there is not a Newmicron.

Anyone else feeling that way.

Monty, you are expressing what all of us are surely feeling, not just in Northern Europe but everywhere. Last night our own president said this... I'm sure we all here feel the same:

On Covid …

"With both symbols and words, he signaled that he hoped the country was entering a new phase of the pandemic.

He did not wear a mask while walking to the rostrum or during his speech. The House Speaker and Vice President did not wear masks while sitting behind him. Few members of Congress in the audience wore them, either."

“For more than two years, Covid has impacted every decision in our lives and the life of this nation. And I know you’re tired, frustrated and exhausted,” he said. “But I also know this: Because of the progress we’ve made, because of your resilience and the tools that we have been provided by this Congress, tonight I can say we’re moving forward safely, back to more normal routines.”

"He also said his administration would expand availability of post-infection treatments and rapid tests, efforts to prepare for new variants and distribution of vaccines to other countries. He also called for workplaces and schools to remain open."

“We can end the shutdown of schools and businesses,” he said. “Our kids need to be in school.”

Nonetheless - and to be fair - the hard truth is that while the pandemic may (and I stress may) be over, we know that variants are still occurring. We know that animal - human - animal transmissions are ever more likely due to man's incursion into the wilds. We know that the consensus of science has long held that more pandemics are on the way.

Now if this means that Northern Europe and the rest of the world will use this respite to seek world unity based on an integrated, fully prepared, new and rapid response protocol, then this respite may continue.

If we don't, well...

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Zippee

Dockhead's Katelyn Jetelina, Epidemiologist just released a terrific article on relative risk, putting things in good perspective. As she so well puts it:





A must read that may finally put risk in real perspective:
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/
(Click on "Let me read it first")


But an excerpt worth posting:


[I]


Paying attention to science is worth our time...

This is worth reading for most people to get away from the binary nature of risk assessment for most of us. The next step is to add in the other risks inherent in the various mitigation strategies and then we will have some real handle on what we are facing.

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by danstanford

This is worth reading for most people to get away from the binary nature of risk assessment for most of us. The next step is to add in the other risks inherent in the various mitigation strategies and then we will have some real handle on what we are facing.

Exactly Dan, this is definitely needed. Dockhead's Jetelina may be one of the best resources we have, and she supports your observation when she says:
*******


"Preface: Risk isn’t just about numbers
"First, we need to recognize that risk calibration is about more than just numbers. Objective numbers cannot be separated from subjective experience when assessing risk. In other words, risk calibration is based on the statistical and physiological chances of disease but also dependent on where you were born, where you live, who you are, how often you do something, the reality you’re forced to navigate, and the complexity of decision-making."

"Risk calibration is influenced by inequities. For example, Black and Hispanic people were/are more likely to die from COVID-19 due to a myriad of social reasons. The trauma from losing someone close to you or losing millions in a community can impact risk calibration."[/I][/SIZE]

"For parents, dire consequences of missing work because of a school exposure may impact risk calibration."

*******

Thanks for pointing that out Dan...

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...nding-risk?s=r

[bil56]

a bit of sociology, in your social system, black/Hispanic communities are more fragile? Why?
Basically, a lower cultural level, less real and confirmed scientific information, less access to care, overcrowding in cramped premises, lower quality food, etc...
this explaining that.

./.

[goboatingnow]

seek world unity

hmm that experiment isnt going to well at the moment

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Zippee

On Covid …
We know that animal - human - animal transmissions are ever more likely due to man's incursion into the wilds. We know that the consensus of science has long held that more pandemics are on the way.

Now if this means that Northern Europe and the rest of the world will use this respite to seek world unity based on an integrated, fully prepared, new and rapid response protocol, then this respite may continue.

If we don't, well...

You mean the fake " consensus of science" that got us here? You know, like this shamelessly mendacious letter to the Lancet authored by Peter Daszak, of EcoHealth Alliance which was funded by NIAID and the US military to conduct Gain of Function research in Wuhan, and all those supporting scientists that signed this letter only to soon after recant their support when conflict of interest became apparent?

Instead of scaremongering how pandemics are unavoidable, how about encouraging the public to demand the dismantling and prohibition of all dual purpose bioweapons labs around the world, most of which are funded by the US?

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930418-9

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Greg K

You mean the fake " consensus of science" that got us here? You know, like this shamelessly mendacious letter to the Lancet authored by Peter Daszak, of EcoHealth Alliance which was funded by NIAID and the US military to conduct Gain of Function research in Wuhan, and all those supporting scientists that signed this letter only to soon after recant their support when conflict of interest became apparent?

Instead of scaremongering how pandemics are unavoidable, how about encouraging the public to demand the dismantling and prohibition of all dual purpose bioweapons labs around the world, most of which are funded by the US?

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930418-9

Hear, Hear..

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Greg K

You mean the fake " consensus of science" that got us here? You know, like this shamelessly mendacious letter to the Lancet authored by Peter Daszak, of EcoHealth Alliance which was funded by NIAID and the US military to conduct Gain of Function research in Wuhan, and all those supporting scientists that signed this letter only to soon after recant their support when conflict of interest became apparent?

Instead of scaremongering how pandemics are unavoidable, how about encouraging the public to demand the dismantling and prohibition of all dual purpose bioweapons labs around the world, most of which are funded by the US?

https://www.thelancet.com/action/sho...2820%2930418-9

The gain of function contention has been specifically denied.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The gain of function contention has been specifically denied.

Well.. they're not gonna throw their hands in the air and go "Fair cop Guv.. it weren't the Bats"..

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The gain of function contention has been specifically denied.

By whom?

If you believe that a corona virus can evolve outside a lab to develop a furin cleavage site with specific affinity for human ACE2 receptor cells, I have a bridge to sell you

[Montanan]

Lest we not forget that Covid is still hitting many countries very hard.

Hong Kong had tried to remain at zero transmission, but omicron's extreme contagiousness has overwhelmed the place resulting in death rates per capita to be incredibly high.

Hong Kong’s covid death rate has surpassed the US’s worst day

https://qz.com/2136230/hong-kongs-co...utm_source=YPL

"Hong Kong reported a record 172 Covid-related deaths yesterday (March 1)—a single-day fatality rate that surpasses the most deadly days of the pandemic in the US when adjusted for population size.

Hong Kong is a city of 7.4 million people, which puts yesterday’s death rate at 2.32 per 100,000 people; the highest in the world. If the city had the same population as the US (332 million), it would have recorded the equivalent of over 7,700 deaths yesterday. That’s far higher than the 4,442 and 4,219 recorded respectively on Jan. 20, 2021 and Feb. 4, 2022, so far the two deadliest pandemic days for the US," . . .

"Meanwhile Hong Kong reported more than 55,000 new covid cases today, more than the roughly 42,000 cases the US reported on March 1."

"A key driver of the soaring death rates in Hong Kong appears to be the severely under-vaccinated status among its elderly. According to data released by the government this past weekend, 91% of the city’s deaths since the latest Omicron-driven wave took hold were of people who had not been fully vaccinated."

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Greg K

By whom?

If you believe that a corona virus can evolve outside a lab to develop a furin cleavage site with specific affinity for human ACE2 receptor cells, I have a bridge to sell you

Who are you kidding? You couldn't tell a furin cleavage site from a glazed donut.

I don't claim to know where the stupid virus came from. There are other origin stories besides somewhere in Wuhan. There are a number of reports of a very similar illness making the rounds in Europe in the fall of 2019. My wife, who frequently worked with people who travel a lot, got sick with "something" very COVID-like, in late Nov 2019. (no hospital, full recovery, amen).

The point being: it doesn't f'ing matter where the virus came from. Makes no difference in how we have to respond to it. The p1ssing match over origin is just another front for doubters and conspiracy nuts to do battle with reality.