Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[tomfl]

Seems like way too much thread drift.

My plans were to fly to Germany and look at, and likely buy, a nice looking C36 and cruise the canals winding up in Paris for the finish of the Tour de France. But COVID-19 put an end to that. Still looking to get something like a C36 and either sail in the Med or cruise the canals during the summer and sail my Seawind cat in the Keys, Bahamas, down island in the winter.

The reason I started following this thread is to get some feel to how soon Northern Europe/Med/ canals in Europe will be open. I will likely be stuck where I am until after hurricane season in Florida is over and then probably head to the Keys and maybe Bahamas if it is open.

While it may be interesting to some to debate just what should be done I am more interested when I can get back to cruising.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tomfl

. . . The reason I started following this thread is to get some feel to how soon Northern Europe/Med/ canals in Europe will be open. . . .

This was the main topic of this thread.


We probably get more thread drift than usual because it is so frustratingly difficult to know the answer to the main question. Gotta have something to talk about, right?



Today is 15 May, and we fully expected that the Northern Baltic would be completely open by now. And in fact the epidemic is well under control here with the R0 number under 1.0 everywhere. And in fact restrictions are mostly lifted everywhere, or will be soon.

EXCEPT the borders


And no one will tell us when this will be solved. The borders are shaping up to be the LAST thing to be reopened.


The latest info which I have is as follows:


1. In all of the Nordic countries you are free to sail and cruise -- within the waters of any one country. But leisure travel into Denmark and Finland, at least, from other countries, even other Nordic countries, is still closed.


2. Germany is opening up. I read in one place that German marinas are not only open but accepting foreign boats. Don't know if that means the border is really open or not, but it seems for sure that boating is not prohibited already.


3. Poland is closed tight as a drum.


4. The Baltic States have opened border among them -- hurrah! But not yet to the outside.


5. Coming from the U.S., you've got the problem that Schengen is closed to non-Europeans, and that includes Sweden. This closure has been renewed until at least 15 June. Whether you can come to Europe after that, no one knows.


Sorry not to have any better news for you


As for me -- I have cancelled my yacht club berth in Helsinki and God knows where I will be this summer. It is possible I will keep the berth in Denmark and just cruise around here with my Danish friends. There are worse fates!


Or I even think about getting that wild hair and sailing up the Skaggerak to Norway, and cruising there for a while. That would be something new and different.

[Dockhead]

Latest news -- the Finnish minister of the interior announces that full border opening is likely with the Baltic States but that other borders are under question. No decision has been made about whether to continue the voluntary 14 day quarantine.


Not looking so good, I have to say, as we expected, for a normal summer of cruising here. It looks like one will really need to stay in the waters of one country.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Latest news -- the Finnish minister of the interior announces that full border opening is likely with the Baltic States but that other borders are under question. No decision has been made about whether to continue the voluntary 14 day quarantine.


Not looking so good, I have to say, as we expected, for a normal summer of cruising here. It looks like one will really need to stay in the waters of one country.

The "voluntary" quarantine doesn't actually oblige anyone to be in strick quarantine, not that it's a good practice anyways. There's nobody else watching over just you..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

The "voluntary" quarantine doesn't actually oblige anyone to be in strick quarantine, not that it's a good practice anyways. There's nobody else watching over just you..

Yes, thank God. How civilized.


Alas it is different in many places outside of the Nordic region.

[alluringarctic]

Norway re-evaluating opening of borders to other Nordic countries by 15th of June, with plans hopefully to open then. Some restrictions have already been lifted, for example people who have family in other Nordic countries or own summer cottages can already cross borders. Ministers in Nordic countries have released statements that border openings for tourism are being evaluated etc., although the high infection amount in Sweden is causing a bit of trouble (for example Finns have just said that they might consider opening Estonian border first). Anyway, my prediction is that on 15th of June the borders between Norway/Sweden/Finland/Denmark will be open. And for most people this would be a normal summer cruising season then (high season is in July anyway).

[GTom]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

It never stops amusing that five centuries later and in populations that consider themselves educated, there are still people that BELIEVE vaccines are devil's inventions and 5G networks will make our daughters pregnant. So help me God.

<--

Mind you, the Earth is flat, don't forget to plan the next circumnavigation accordingly

[toolbar]

Apparently DK was discussing opening the borders for tourism for Norway anf Germany, as they seem to have the situation under control. However Sweden felt put back (esp. with regard to Germany getting better treatment), so no opening at all for now.

Paul

[tp12]

Interesting article on Sweden

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/1...edish-strategy

[Wotname]

I don't want to re-ignite the "immunity" flame war but... .

I was just listening to Dr Normal Swan (Aussie medical ABC presenter) explaining the differences between natural immunity and herd immunity. In his explanation, the medical world uses the term herd immunity as the immunity the community acquires via vaccines and effectiveness is determined percentage of vaccine uptake. This necessary percentage is disease / vaccine specific.

Natural community immunity is due to having developed an immunity by exposure of the disease to a significant percentage of the population. The required percentage of exposure to the disease is unknown but it assumed to be greater than 60%.

I'm not stating this as a fact, simply the opinion of someone who is very well respected in Australia on medical matters. There will a blog on it somewhere but I don't do blogs!

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I don't want to re-ignite the "immunity" flame war but... .

I was just listening to Dr Normal Swan (Aussie medical ABC presenter) explaining the differences between natural immunity and herd immunity. In his explanation, the medical world uses the term herd immunity as the immunity the community acquires via vaccines and effectiveness is determined percentage of vaccine uptake. This necessary percentage is disease / vaccine specific.

Natural community immunity is due to having developed an immunity by exposure of the disease to a significant percentage of the population. The required percentage of exposure to the disease is unknown but it assumed to be greater than 60%.

I'm not stating this as a fact, simply the opinion of someone who is very well respected in Australia on medical matters. There will a blog on it somewhere but I don't do blogs!

Now we know Dr Swan is normal

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by tp12

Interesting article on Sweden

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/05/1...edish-strategy

I think that would really add some value to your persistent argument if it had NZ our Aus economic figure to compare to. Personally I would like to see a study of economic consequences in comparable countries like Canada. I don't argue that Sweden did it right, but I really don't see the argument for stating they did it wrong.

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

I think that would really add some value to your persistent argument if it had NZ our Aus economic figure to compare to. Personally I would like to see a study of economic consequences in comparable countries like Canada. I don't argue that Sweden did it right, but I really don't see the argument for stating they did it wrong.

From what I've seen in expressed views the reality is if you can't see that Sweden has taken the wrong approach by all the numbers and the limited economic benefit they've gained in doing so then you never will and there will be no argument that is persuasive. You're not alone in that view and we all know who the champion of that position is

[mglonnro]

So, back to the borders and sailing.

As far as I understand, at the moment, being a Finnish citizen, I can:

- sail freely within Finland
- sail out of the country (only via a passport checkpoint, though)
- sail into and out of Sweden (since their travel restrictions don't affect EU citizens)
- NOT sail to Denmark
- NOT sail to Estonia (or any other Baltic country?)
- NOT sail to Germany (???)

In Finland, at least, it's been quite difficult to separate recommendations from regulations, and whether the guidelines affect everyone, non-EU citizens or what. Don't know about the other countries.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I don't want to re-ignite the "immunity" flame war but... .
I was just listening to Dr Normal Swan (Aussie medical ABC presenter) explaining the differences between natural immunity and herd immunity. In his explanation, the medical world uses the term herd immunity as the immunity the community acquires via vaccines and effectiveness is determined percentage of vaccine uptake. This necessary percentage is disease / vaccine specific.

Natural community immunity is due to having developed an immunity by exposure of the disease to a significant percentage of the population. The required percentage of exposure to the disease is unknown but it assumed to be greater than 60%.

I'm not stating this as a fact, simply the opinion of someone who is very well respected in Australia on medical matters. There will a blog on it somewhere but I don't do blogs!

Well, there is some confusion here.

"Herd immunity", "community immunity, and "population immunity" are all the same thing. It's a very simple concept. The great number of immune individuals there are in the community, the fewer paths of infection there are, through that community. So a given disease spreads rapdily among a population with no immunity, and slower and slower, the more immune individuals there are. At a certain point (which depends on the basic infectiousness or R0 of the disease), the disease cannot spread any more and the epidemic is stopped. OK? That's all there is to it. Read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity. It matters not where the immunity comes from, whether from vaccination or from having already been sick:

"Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through vaccination or previous infections, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune." Op. cit.

The best guess as to the degree of immunity required to stop the novel coronavirus is something like 60% but we don't know for sure because we don't know very precisely what the basic R0 of the disease is. Again, it matters not where the immunity comes from.