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**Dockhead** · 28-05-2020, 00:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by tp12

. . .Regarding the costs of locking down versus not I'm yet to see more analysis along those lines. Has anyone seen that type of modelling outside the one article I posted? I'm interested in credible arguments and modelling done by economists etc and will happily read it all.
. ..

There is a list of references in footnote 3, in post #709.

**Dockhead** · 28-05-2020, 09:05

So our plans have been settled by other circumstances. We will have to be up on the Gulf of Bothnia next month, during July we will slowly cruise the 1000 miles back from there to Denmark. So the wonderful Swedish High Coast, then maybe spend some time in the Aaland Islands and the Archipelago Sea. Maybe Gotland if it's open by then, or the Stockholm Archipelago and down the Swedish East Coast.

Tomorrow we should hear about Denmark opening. I hope Finland will be open to foreign boats so that we can spend some time in the Archipelago Sea. Sweden should not be an issue unless they tighten the rules unexpectedly; at the moment Sweden is open to foreign boats, at least EU boats.

tp12 · 28-05-2020, 23:38

I still haven't seen any more modelling for lockdown vs no lockdown but I did find this analysis of Sweden's approach in Forbes. It's not a good look for Sweden.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuac.../#473f2a9e2dcd

**Dockhead** · 29-05-2020, 01:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by tp12

I still haven't seen any more modelling for lockdown vs no lockdown but I did find this analysis of Sweden's approach in Forbes. It's not a good look for Sweden.. . .

Is your only interest in this discussion bashing Sweden? Why Sweden? What specific policy do you object to? There is very little difference in the Swedish policies and those in other Nordic countries.

From the article you linked: "Calculated over the entire time period of the pandemic, Sweden’s death rate has been about average among Western countries, though many times higher than its Scandinavian neighbors, and also higher than the U.S."

Note that the last statement is actually not true -- U.S. death rates in most states quote only hospital deaths, where Sweden quotes deaths in or out of hospitals. Sweden's death rate would be half of the reported rate, if it were reported the way it is in the U.S.

A better indicator of the death rate is total excess deaths:

Click image for larger version

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Size: 377.7 KB
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https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-...3-955839e06441

From this one can see that Sweden's situation is nothing unusual. Picking on Sweden, and at this early stage, just reveals bias -- an axe to grind. It shows that someone is really invested in proving that whatever was done in his own country was right, and God forbid that someone is having success doing it a different way.

As to cost-benefit analyses -- links to about 6 other such analyses were posted.

And yes, everyone knows you can read these posts, although you pretend not to.

Jonte · 29-05-2020, 02:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead

So our plans have been settled by other circumstances. We will have to be up on the Gulf of Bothnia next month, during July we will slowly cruise the 1000 miles back from there to Denmark. So the wonderful Swedish High Coast, then maybe spend some time in the Aaland Islands and the Archipelago Sea. Maybe Gotland if it's open by then, or the Stockholm Archipelago and down the Swedish East Coast.

Tomorrow we should hear about Denmark opening. I hope Finland will be open to foreign boats so that we can spend some time in the Archipelago Sea. Sweden should not be an issue unless they tighten the rules unexpectedly; at the moment Sweden is open to foreign boats, at least EU boats.

I hope the trip /plan works for you. I will be on lookout for any English flag then I now you made it.[emoji4]

**Dockhead** · 29-05-2020, 02:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonte

I hope the trip /plan works for you. I will be on lookout for any English flag then I now you made it.[emoji4]

Come over for a sundowner if you see us. Where are you based, and where will you be cruising this year?

Jonte · 29-05-2020, 02:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Come over for a sundowner if you see us. Where are you based, and where will you be cruising this year?

I'm mostly in ST Anna's arkipelago between Arkösund and Västervik. I will absolutely keep my eyes open.

**Dockhead** · 29-05-2020, 03:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonte

I'm mostly in ST Anna's arkipelago between Arkösund and Västervik. I will absolutely keep my eyes open.

Ah, that's a beautiful stretch of coast. I first cruised that area in 2014. If we don't go to Gotland, we will surely be there some time in July.

Huskybeer · 29-05-2020, 06:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by tp12

I still haven't seen any more modelling for lockdown vs no lockdown but I did find this analysis of Sweden's approach in Forbes. It's not a good look for Sweden.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuac.../#473f2a9e2dcd

I have never seen such an badly researched biased piece of **** journalism. Forbes should be ashamewd of even thinking to publish this garbage. We are doing fine and better in Sweden. BECAUSE we have decency and self responsability and need not to commanded and told what to do or not. What ois more we can think by ourselves.. All else is just a power grab by the gouvernments

tp12 · 29-05-2020, 07:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by Huskybeer

I have never seen such an badly researched biased piece of **** journalism. Forbes should be ashamewd of even thinking to publish this garbage. We are doing fine and better in Sweden. BECAUSE we have decency and self responsability and need not to commanded and told what to do or not. What ois more we can think by ourselves.. All else is just a power grab by the gouvernments

Ha! I'm going out on a limb here to guess you don't like the article. What was poorly researched about it? Or is it just that you believe Governments who've implemented lockdowns are just out to grab power and aren't doing it to save lives?

Macblaze · 29-05-2020, 07:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Is your only interest in this discussion bashing Sweden? Why Sweden? What specific policy do you object to? There is very little difference in the Swedish policies and those in other Nordic countries.

From the article you linked: "Calculated over the entire time period of the pandemic, Sweden’s death rate has been about average among Western countries, though many times higher than its Scandinavian neighbors, and also higher than the U.S."

Note that the last statement is actually not true -- U.S. death rates in most states quote only hospital deaths, where Sweden quotes deaths in or out of hospitals. Sweden's death rate would be half of the reported rate, if it were reported the way it is in the U.S.

A better indicator of the death rate is total excess deaths:

Attachment 216031
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-...3-955839e06441

From this one can see that Sweden's situation is nothing unusual. Picking on Sweden, and at this early stage, just reveals bias -- an axe to grind. It shows that someone is really invested in proving that whatever was done in his own country was right, and God forbid that someone is having success doing it a different way.

As to cost-benefit analyses -- links to about 6 other such analyses were posted.

And yes, everyone knows you can read these posts, although you pretend not to.

Just to make sure...

tp12 · 29-05-2020, 07:08

Someone's getting emotional. Thanks for the quote but I prefer my settings.

tp12 · 29-05-2020, 07:12

8th in deaths per million of population, 17th now in total deaths. 91st in population. Worst scandi country. One of the highest, if not still the highest, rate of deaths currently in the world. The numbers just don't support this 'doing well' view.