Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by GordMay

A herd immunity policy, without vaccines*, is a whole lot of very sick people, and mass murder......................

No wonder "he" called it herd mentality.


So, let's see: warm weather causes cases to rise because the kids wanna go out and play, while cold weather causes cases to rise because everybody's packed inside.


What's a simple old geezer to do?


PS - I don't do political superspreader events, live in Canada. Like the New Joke Thread says: like living in a nice apartment over a meth lab.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by stevensuf

The problem with herd immunity is it looks like it will be very short lived, a few months immunity at best.

Yep. And if that is case, can their be a vaccine?

Or if there is a vaccine, do we have to get a shot twice a year, three times a year, every month?

Later,
Dan

[stevensuf]

Originally Posted by dannc

Yep. And if that is case, can their be a vaccine?

Or if there is a vaccine, do we have to get a shot twice a year, three times a year, every month?

Later,
Dan

Thats the big question....


The other question is that with only a few months immunity, will re infections be milder or worse?


Will the death rate from re infections be higher?


What about a third infection? will that be even deadlier?


Think dengue fever.... Every time you get it , it gets worse, specially if older and not fully recovered before you get it again.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by stevensuf

Thats the big question....


The other question is that with only a few months immunity, will re infections be milder or worse?


Will the death rate from re infections be higher?


What about a third infection? will that be even deadlier?


Think dengue fever.... Every time you get it , it gets worse, specially if older and not fully recovered before you get it again.

Well, but is there any known case of any Corona virus behaving like that? As far as I know, most scientists expect this one to behave like previous ones - different people get different levels of natural immunity, old people get less, many people have some t-cell immunity even before being exposed to this one. Most people will be immune for a good while - better part of a year or more - others more or less. Re infections will be rare.

If there is some new science I'm not aware of, I'd be grateful for a link.

I'm personally interested in the question as I had a pretty severe case of COVID in January, and I sure as hell hope I've paid my dues. Sickest I've ever been in my life and would NOT want to go through it a second time.

Also as others have written - if there's little or ineffective natural immunity, then it's unlikely a vaccine will work. That would be seriously bad news.

[stevensuf]

There have been multiple instance of reinfection that were scientifically proven through dna sequencing of the virus.


Anecdotal evidence so far suggests that people who are reinfected after a few months suffer worse the second time around.


One guy got reinfected in less than 2 months from his first infection.


It appears, though not for certain, that immunity is very short lived, averaging around 3 to 5 months.


We do not have huge data on the subject, these re infections may be flukes, but the antibody testing also shows a sharp decline at the 3 to 4 month mark.


So it may well be the case that herd immunity is impossible to achieve.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by stevensuf

There have been multiple instance of reinfection that were scientifically proven through dna sequencing of the virus.

Anecdotal evidence so far suggests that people who are reinfected after a few months suffer worse the second time around.

One guy got reinfected in less than 2 months from his first infection.

It appears, though not for certain, that immunity is very short lived, averaging around 3 to 5 months.

We do not have huge data on the subject, these re infections may be flukes, but the antibody testing also shows a sharp decline at the 3 to 4 month mark.

So it may well be the case that herd immunity is impossible to achieve.

Interesting -- do you have links to sources for any of this?


If herd immunity is impossible to achieve, then we are screwed indeed. That's how vaccines stop epidemics.

[stevensuf]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Interesting -- do you have links to sources for any of this?


If herd immunity is impossible to achieve, then we are screwed indeed. That's how vaccines stop epidemics.

Yes it may be! Note how mot mention the second infection was more serious than the first. This could be a ticking time bomb, trojan horse!



https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...eries-covid-19


https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covi...in-icu/1973309


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02506-y

[dannc]

Back to young people, one of the reports from the Netherlands said that 80% of the infected people in Delft, a college town, are students. Nationwide, the majority of sick people are young, whatever that means. While the number of infections is going up, the sick are not ill enough to go to the hospital and hospital admissions are very low. There were 2,000 positive cases in the last 24 hours but only 12 people were admitted to the hospital.

Flying over to the island of Ireland, the police issued 55 virus citations on a few big parties in one of the college kid areas in Belfast and Dublin might be locked down. No reports on WHY Dublin is having so many virus cases again. Kinda ironic that the pubs have been locked down for months, unless they sell food, and they might finally allowed to reopen.

We have had similar issues with college and partying but many of the schools have just closed down again.

Later,
Dan

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by dannc

Back to young people, one of the reports from the Netherlands said that 80% of the infected people in Delft, a college town, are students. Nationwide, the majority of sick people are young, whatever that means. While the number of infections is going up, the sick are not ill enough to go to the hospital and hospital admissions are very low. There were 2,000 positive cases in the last 24 hours but only 12 people were admitted to the hospital.. . .

Confirming what you said about the Netherlands:







Just like what we see all over Europe -- increase in cases, sometimes apparently huge increase, like here -- no deaths.

[Dockhead]

So here's what the daily case rates (7 day rolling average) look like in Northern Europe today, with a few other countries thrown in:







What is happening in general:


1. Big outbreak in Denmark, which is at 7.43, now well over the UK and catching up with France, in daily cases, one of the biggest outbreaks in Europe. The biggest outbreak we've seen in the Nordics during the whole pandemic. But curiously, basically no death. One or two deaths a day, which is statistical noise.


2. What is shaping up to be a big outbreak in Estonia, which has had nearly the lowest level of infection in Europe all this time. Still less than half the daily case rate as Denmark, but catching up.



3. Daily case rates in Finland but at a slower rate and from a lower base, so Finland still least infected country in Northern Europe, with daily case rate of only about 1 per 100k (7.5x less than Denmark).


4. Daily case rates slowly decline in Sweden which now has the lowest daily case rate in Northern Europe except only Finland and Latvia. No material number of deaths since July.


5. Norway stable at about 2 per 100k, about 33% higher than Sweden.



No significant number of deaths even in countries with big outbreaks. So very different in quality from the spring. This is true not only in Northern Europe -- there is NO DEATH in the UK, either.



These death rates are less than in a normal flu year. Looks like COVID killed off the most vulnerable in one go in the spring. Or something. It's hard to understand.


How happy the Swedes must be. The only country in Europe without a renewed outbreak, and no reason for one, since their measures were sustainable in the first place, and they haven't had to relax anything -- all the measures are still in place.



Let's just hope that it doesn't get worse. The Brits are talking about a second lockdown even though no one is dying. There is significant growth of cases in different places, but the curves are not that steep and almost no one is dying, at least in Northern and Western Europe. Hopefully this will pass.

[stevensuf]

I think Vitamin D injections have reduced the death rate 25x.....

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

............
No significant number of deaths even in countries with big outbreaks. So very different in quality from the spring. This is true not only in Northern Europe -- there is NO DEATH in the UK, either.



These death rates are less than in a normal flu year. Looks like COVID killed off the most vulnerable in one go in the spring. Or something. It's hard to understand.

............

Perhaps we are getting at keeping the virus out of aged care accommodation and any place where the elderly or infirm congregate. Pure speculation on my part though.

It will be interesting to see what the downstream health effects will be of this current wave - hopefully few.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Perhaps we are getting at keeping the virus out of aged care accommodation and any place where the elderly or infirm congregate. Pure speculation on my part though.

It will be interesting to see what the downstream health effects will be of this current wave - hopefully few.

Maybe.


But if it's not killing ANYONE, then it's a non-issue, right? What is the significance of this gigantic outbreak in France, if NOBODY DIES? This could be bloody good news.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Maybe.


But if it's not killing ANYONE, then it's a non-issue, right? What is the significance of this gigantic outbreak in France, if NOBODY DIES? This could be bloody good news.

Yes, it could be bludi good news, even bludi great news.

Devil's advocate - if there are downstream seriously negative health impacts (say debilitating heart or lung issues) then the ongoing cost is terrible. Especially in countries where medicine is publicly funded. One advantage of a dead 'patient' is the buck stops there (sick pun).

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

. . . Devil's advocate - if there are downstream seriously negative health impacts (say debilitating heart or lung issues) then the ongoing cost is terrible. Especially in countries where medicine is publicly funded. One advantage of a dead 'patient' is the buck stops there (sick pun).

Well, the science will tell us, won't it? We have to see how many people get what long term effects, to see whether this is an unusual problem or whether it is more like other diseases.

Just for a baseline comparison, the flu also causes damage to heart muscle in a small number of cases, or myocarditis:

"Although rare, myocarditis can result from a cold or flu and affect otherwise healthy children and adults. Myocarditis is the inflammation and destruction of the heart muscle tissue and can lead to rapid heart failure. Symptoms can include difficulty breathing, accumulation of fluid around the ankles and calves, and chest pain when breathing. Seek medical help quickly; possible treatments include antivirals if it is a result of a virus as well as steroids. Some people recover, while others need to take cardiac medications for life or even require a heart transplant."

https://www.everydayhealth.com/cold-...d-and-flu.aspx

Sounds scary, doesn't it?