Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

So, a lot can happen in a couple of weeks.

We're seeing the second wave virtually everywhere in Europe except perhaps Latvia. Even Sweden, which now has one of the lowest infection rates in Europe, is seeing a substantial uptick in cases.

To save trouble crunching the numbers as I was doing before, now I'm just going to use the official EU 14-day stats, from here: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

cum cases 14 days cum deaths per 100k 14 days

Denmark 125.2 0.3
Estonia 42.9 0.0
Sweden 42.7 0.2
Norway 29 0.2
Finland 20.1 0.1
Latvia 11.5 0.1

And for comparison:

Germany 30.9 0.1
France 231.9 1.3
Spain 329.2 3.3
UK 101.5 0.5

The death rates, even in Spain, are a fraction of what they were in the Spring, currently 107 per day on a 7 day average compared to nearly 1000 at the peak in the Spring.

The other good news is that the curve has turned sharply down again in Spain and might be turning down in France and the UK. Denmark has had new cases far exceeding the Spring outbreak. Sweden is having new outbreaks in areas previously unaffected -- Kronoberg, Jönköping, Dalarna (of all places), while Stockholm and Gotheburg are not having outbreaks. Obviously community immunity playing some role. Norway is having a big but localized outbreak in Hordaland (where Bergen is). Estonia is having a really intense outbreak in Narva, in the far East of the country, while the capital Tallinn is calm.

I think what we see is that the virus burns easily through regions where there hasn't been much infection yet. And spreads much more slowly in those places where there were previously more infections. The Finns feel highly vulnerable -- there has been extremely little infection so far.

In Finland some increased restrictions are being discussed even as we speak -- restaurants and bars to be closed at either midnight or 01:00.

In France although Macron firmly says that "we have to live with the virus", and rules out a second lockdown, there are new restrictions as of yesterday -- bars close at 22:00, 10 person limit at gatherings, masks required in public places. In Marseille bars and restaurants are closed altogether for a week, which has provoked a backlash there -- Europeans are tired of anti-pandemic measures. In the UK there is a strong backlash against the rather mild measures there.


In Spain, which is having one of the worst outbreaks ever in the world, the Mayor of Madrid said "People get run over every day, but that doesn't mean we ban cars" -- explaining her opposition to new restrictions. But Madrid is a tough case -- intensive care wards are at 40% capacity, unlike France where apart from Marseille they are empty, despite the huge number of cases.


We shall see what happens now. We are entering a new and different phase of the pandemic in Europe -- "living with the virus", letting it spread without strong measures to control it. I hope it works out.

[dannc]

The infection rates has been going up in certain areas of Ireland, and they have created lock downs in those areas. When the rate goes down they open up from the harshest part of the lock downs. Really feel sorry for the pubs. Restaurants can be open but pubs have been shutdown since the beginning of this pandemic. Some of the pubs I read about in Dublin spent up to 80,000 euros preparing to open, then they just got locked down. I don't see how a business can survive in that environment.

One of the Irish papers said that if you have a BMI of 40 or more, and catch the virus, you will be 17 times more likely to need a visit to the ICU compared to a correct BMI.

What the heck is a BMI of 40? Glad you asked.

If one were 6 feet tall and weighed around 300 pounds, one would have a BMI of 40.

About the time I read that little tidbit about BMI, the Wall Street Journal reported on fat and the body being overwhelmed by the virus. Simply put, the virus can/does infect the body through fat cells, the more fat, the more virus that can invade the body. Get enough virus and the body can be overwhelmed.

The body being overwhelmed was guessed at early on when some of the young and healthy doctors in China and Italy got the virus and died so even if one is in good shape, if you are over exposed...

Of course, if one is over weight, one is likely to have other health issues that make one vulnerable for a host of other problems, including the virus. Given that the virus uses fat to invade the body, and that the more fat one has can lead to more virus attacking the body, a body which is already vulnerable health wise because of too much weight, it just adds up to a bad outcome.

This could explain why some countries are having higher death rates than others.

Surprisingly, according to this website, https://obesity.procon.org/global-obesity-levels, the US is only 12th on the list with 36.2% of the population being obese. But this could be one of the reasons for the high US fatality rate. I have seen excess deaths broken down by geographical regions of the US. The NE US has THREE times more excess deaths than the south, midwest or west. The other regions in the US are not that much higher than Europe.

What is scary, is that the top 10 countries with high levels of obesity are Pacific Island nations. A bunch of the countries from 10-20 are in the Middle East.

A surprise to me is that New Zealand is at 22 with 30.8% of the people being obese.

Canada is at 26 with 29.4%
Australia is at 27 with 29%
South Africa is at 30 with 28.3%
UK is at 33 with 27.8%
Ireland is at 51 with 25.2%
Norway is at 67 with 23.1%
Germany is at 78 with 22.3%
Finland is at 80 with 22.2%
Belgium is at 81 with 22.1%
France is at 87 with 21.6%
Sweden is at 96 with 20.6%
Netherlands is at 99 with 20.4%
Denmark is at 109 with 19.7% obese.

The early guestimates was that Africa would suffer horribly from the virus, yet the prediction has been wrong. Thankfully. So far.

On the other hand, South Africa has been hit very hard, maybe not as bad as guessed, and they have had a severe lock down. The lock down has seriously harmed the economy, put people out of work so that they cannot pay rent, have been kicked out of their homes, AND not had money to pay for food. The number of excess deaths in South Africa is high and so is South Africa's place on the list of obesity which could explain the impact of the virus..

Some of the excess death charts are showing LOWER than average numbers for the last few months. Big spikes from March/April but many counties have leveled to normal or below normal level. Course, some countries have had a second spike.

It ain't over until the fat lady sings might be the indicator that the pandemic is over...

Later,
Dan

[Wotname]

^^ interesting post, dannc.

Half rations for me then

[Montanan]

A plausible reason that Sweden has had a low case count is that they are the most socially isolated of all Europeans, fully 52% of Sweden's households are single person households, the highest in all of the EU. Loners. When one does not cohabitat that inherently means there is far less capabilities for occurences to exposures.

In 2016, the EU had 220 million households. The most common type of household was composed of one person (33 % of the total number of households), followed by households consisting of couples without children (25 %) and couples with children (20 %). 4% of households were made up of single adults with children. The remaining 18 % consisted of other types of households with or without children.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

A plausible reason that Sweden has had a low case count is that they are the most socially isolated of all Europeans, fully 52% of Sweden's households are single person households, the highest in all of the EU. Loners. When one does not cohabitat that inherently means there is far less capabilities for occurences to exposures.

In 2016, the EU had 220 million households. The most common type of household was composed of one person (33 % of the total number of households), followed by households consisting of couples without children (25 %) and couples with children (20 %). 4% of households were made up of single adults with children. The remaining 18 % consisted of other types of households with or without children.

Indeed. That's typical of the Nordic countries. And certainly makes the pandemic more manageable. I'm sure that's a factor.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed. That's typical of the Nordic countries. And certainly makes the pandemic more manageable. I'm sure that's a factor.

Yep, staying away from people, especially crowds of people in confined spaces, I think is a key to avoid the virus. Like any other cold or flu. And Sweden does not have a huge number of people who are obese.

I have seen excess death graphs that show many countries have been at average or below a average rates for months. This is certainly because of the lock down but how much lock down is really needed.

Saw another report in one of the Irish papers that half of the pubs/restaurants have taken on debt of 16,000 Euros because the government said they are going to allow opening and then said, no, you can't open. The business ordered supplies that then had to be thrown away. Some have taken on far more debt that 16,000 Euros. How many times can a small business absorb those loses?

Later,
Dan

[Dockhead]

I wonder what's going to happen next? The virus is ripping through Europe. The curve has turned down in Spain, and might be starting to turn in France, but in Northern Europe the daily cases continue to rise. The problem spot in Northern Europe has been Denmark, with double the daily cases per capita of any of her neighbors, but the curve seems to have turned down a bit - let's hope. Daily cases have doubled in Finland in the last couple weeks, but Finland is still at a very low level of infection, maybe 4x less than Denmark and 2x less than Sweden and Estonia.

What is going on the mid-West of the U.S.? Montana seems to be having a catastrophic time -- 350 daily cases (7 day rolling average) which makes a whopping 35 new cases per 100k population, twice the rate of France, which is presently the worst hit part of Europe, and 8x the rate of, for example, Sweden. I am surprised at this since Montana doesn't have any actual cities, and people live in great isolation. Montanan, stay safe!

It will be interesting to see if the U.S., which is having so many infections, starts to emerge from this with some community immunity. I think what we've seen in Europe is two-staged -- the peak in April came from the vanguard of the super-spreaders, while most people were limiting contact with others. Those few super-spreaders became immune or withdrew from circulation, and the first wave subsided. Then as life got back to normal, more and more people started coming into contact with each other, creating a new set of infection vectors, and the second wave started. Now are we seeing THAT one start to come down? I am very much hoping to see France and Spain start to turn down clearly. If it does then we can hope for something not too far from normal life in Europe, as those countries have not implemented particularly harsh measures during the second wave. If the infection continues to rise, and especially, if we start to have a lot of death again, all bets are off. And will the more vulnerable countries of Northern Europe get whacked? Finland and Estonia have had only a negligable number of cases; there is no immunity at all in the communities. There is no reason that I can think of, that the second wave couldn't be as bad as what is happening in France.

[barnakiel]

While it is true that the number of new cases GLOBALLY in Spain is fewer now, it must be noted that LOCALLY some places are in horrible condition, notably:


- Catalunya (Barcelona),
- Madrid,
- Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (Canary Islands).


In Catalunya and Madrid the global govt is faced with local resistance. Catalunya refuses to go into lock-down, Madrid only partly accepts central instructions and is on the verge of an open mutiny. People there refuse to stop pubing, going to restaurants and having regular Med style social life.


De facto, Madrid and Barcelona elected to follow the Swedish Covid route this winter. Die to live.


In Las Palmas (Canary Islands) the situation is on the very edge of a lock-down. We are having about 200-300 new cases confirmed each day. If we go like this for another week or 10 days, we will get locked-down. And yes we will apply the measure as suggested by the central govt.


In any case, if you are visiting Spain avoid:


- Madrid,
- Barcelona,
- Las Palmas of Gran Canaria.


Wait and let the wave pass, we should be clean by May. Come visit when it is safe for you NOT now.


Cheers,
barnakiel,
Canary Islands

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I wonder what's going to happen next? The virus is ripping through Europe. The curve has turned down in Spain, and might be starting to turn in France, but in Northern Europe the daily cases continue to rise. The problem spot in Northern Europe has been Denmark, with double the daily cases per capita of any of her neighbors, but the curve seems to have turned down a bit - let's hope. Daily cases have doubled in Finland in the last couple weeks, but Finland is still at a very low level of infection, maybe 4x less than Denmark and 2x less than Sweden and Estonia.

What is going on the mid-West of the U.S.? Montana seems to be having a catastrophic time -- 350 daily cases (7 day rolling average) which makes a whopping 35 new cases per 100k population, twice the rate of France, which is presently the worst hit part of Europe, and 8x the rate of, for example, Sweden. I am surprised at this since Montana doesn't have any actual cities, and people live in great isolation. Montanan, stay safe!

Yep, we in Montaña are wondering what the hell is going on. My sister in law who lives near Helena came down with it about a ten days ago, so far only with a loss of taste and a mild lethargy. She spent an hour and a half with her architect going over her the plans for constructing her new home and learned later that the office manager was Covid-19 positive so she probably picked up at that office as that has been her only out of home contact.

There have been 14,635 total confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported in Montana, with 4,851 active, 9,597 recovered, 187 deaths and 191 active hospitalizations. Our population is 1,090,000.

A total of 357,413 tests for COVID-19 have been conducted in Montana.

We were doing quite well up until about mid-September.

I remain being cautious, I rarely leave home, just to go to the supermarket or the pharmacy. Continuing to work from home. And performing loads of home projects; got to finish off reroofing next week before it gets cold and snowy. Will go for a late season sail tomorrow, been having very fine weather.

Going to get three vaccines next week, TDaP, Influenza and the newer Shingles jab. My new pharmacist says the Shingles jab will make me feel poorly for several days but is more effective than the older Shingles vaccine I got about 5 years ago.

Hopefully a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine will become widely deployed come Spring time 2021 so as to put a damper on this pandemic by the second half of the year.

As for Accepting 2021, I intend to first read the terms and conditions.

Wishes for you all to stay safe, stay healthy.

All the Best from the Last Best Place.

[goboatingnow]

Beleive you me , don’t take Ireland as any example , we keep putting stricter and stricter rules in place and the numbers keep going up , the medical panel advising the gov has now reccomended full national lockdown again !!, sheesh

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Yep, we in Montaña are wondering what the hell is going on. . . I remain being cautious, I rarely leave home, just to go to the supermarket or the pharmacy. . .

Stay safe!


I was sick with this damn thing in January -- believe me, you don't want to have it!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Beleive you me , don’t take Ireland as any example , we keep putting stricter and stricter rules in place and the numbers keep going up , the medical panel advising the gov has now reccomended full national lockdown again !!, sheesh

Ireland has only 435 daily infections, or 8.7 per 100k. That's less than the UK (9.95) and about half of France (17.3), although it's a bit more than Denmark (7.6), which in this part of the world we consider a trouble spot.


I got a note just now from a friend in Israel -- they are having 5107 new infections per day -- that's 55.5 per 100k!! And they are under hard lockdown AGAIN, you can't go more than 100 meters from your house!

[stevensuf]

Schools and universities going back.... Big jump of spreading from them!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by dannc

. . .I have seen excess death graphs that show many countries have been at average or below a average rates for months. This is certainly because of the lock down but how much lock down is really needed.. . .

But you see below average death rates in countries without lockdowns too. At least part of this, and probably the greatest part of this, is the fact that in many countries there was a big spike of deaths in April. A large percentage of those deaths were people who were dying anyway, and would have died a month or three later. So when they died in April they fell out of the statistic for May or August or whenever they would otherwise have died. What will be really interesting will be to see what the total excess mortality will be over the whole year. I'm guessing that in many places there will be none.



What continues to puzzles me is why no one is dying now. In Europe anyway. We have a huge second wave going on now, but death rates almost everywhere are more than an order of magnitude less than they were during the Spring. Why is this? We already killed off the really vulnerable people? Or what?


Death rates have come up a bit in Spain, but daily averages are 102, compared to 866 at the peak. In France despite enormous number of cases, the death rate is negligible. In the UK -- 56 a day, down from 941 at the peak.

[Dockhead]

In 2 1/2 weeks daily rate of infection (7 day rolling average) has increased to:


Finland 312% (that is triple and a bit more)
Estonia 122% (22% more)
Sweden 143%
Denmark 91% (decreased by 9%)
UK 333% (yowza!)
Germany 164%


So the UK is really being swamped with cases -- I guess that ends my dream of taking my boat to Cowes for the winter.


The good news is the really high infection rates in much of the rest of Europe don't appear to be coming to the Nordics. Denmark was the worst hotspot of infection, but the daily case numbers are actually coming down. Case number rise quickly in Finland but from a very low base, so that the infection rate is still only 3.24, between Norway 2.89 and Sweden at 4.33. The highest rate of infection in the Nordics is in Denmark, but that is still only 6.79 per 100k population -- 3x less than France (20.6), and 8x less than Israel (55.5). I have a friend in the second lockdown in Israel slowly going mad.



And what is going on in Montana?! Exponential growth continues there, now 45.3 cases per 100k, the highest I've seen except for Israel. I thought that low population density and hard lockdown in the Spring was supposed to keep the virus out? I would think that self-isolation in Montana is almost automatic -- life as usual -- unless you can get it from cows. At least the death rate isn't that bad -- 2 a day or 2 per million. 10x more than Sweden, and about double the rate in the UK, but those countries had a lot of death already in the Spring.