Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

... There is herd immunity to ALL diseases -- that's how epidemics die out. It's either that or everyone dies, and mankind is still around. Many coronaviruses mutate rapidly, and evade our immune system by becoming something different, so we can be reinfected in a year or so, and therefore we get annual waves of, for example, the common cold. But they are just waves -- every year the epidemic dies out (due to herd immunity) and life returns to normal...

Most people get colds in the winter and spring, but it is possible to get a cold any time of the year. Adults have an average of 2-3 colds per year, and children (especially under 6) have even more.
More than 200 different viruses are known to cause the symptoms of the common cold. An estimated 30-35% of all adult colds are caused by rhinoviruses.
Rhinoviruses can also trigger asthma attacks, and have been linked to sinus and ear infections.
Other viruses, that can cause colds, include respiratory syncytial virus, human parainfluenza viruses, adenovirus, common human coronaviruses, and human metapneumovirus.
There is no cure for a cold. It will get better on its own, without antibiotics. Most people recover from a common cold in a week or 10 days. Symptoms might last longer in people who smoke.
There is no vaccine for the common cold, and no immunity develops in previously infected individuals (much less in the ‘herd’) beyond around three months.
So, from an epidemiological point of view, the trick is to reduce the number of people we are in contact with (by staying more at home & isolating), and reduce the chance of transmission to those we are in contact with (by masking & frequent hand washing) so that we can drive down the number of contacts we infect, and herd immunity starts earlier.
The sweet spot comes at the point where one infected person infects less than one person on average. But, importantly, we will need to sustain this until we have a vaccine: only at that point can we return to normal behaviour patterns, with herd immunity now achieved by vaccination, not disease.

Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity, to Covid-19, when approximately 60% to 70% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection, as we have no vaccine)
And so, in the absence of a vaccine, there would appear to be nothing to stop the spread of the virus until more than 50% of us have had it; and at that point herd immunity will kick in, and transmission will decline or stop. And, this is deeply concerning – taking the low fatality rate estimate of 1%, even 50% of the population infected by COVID-19 is an unthinkable level of increased mortality.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

. . .Unfortunately, a very rough estimate suggests that we will only reach herd immunity, to Covid-19, when approximately 60% to 70% of the population is immune (and remember that immunity is currently only reached by getting the infection, as we have no vaccine)
And so, in the absence of a vaccine, there would appear to be nothing to stop the spread of the virus until more than 50% of us have had it; and at that point herd immunity will kick in, and transmission will decline or stop. And, this is deeply concerning – taking the low fatality rate estimate of 1%, even 50% of the population infected by COVID-19 is an unthinkable level of increased mortality.

This is a polemic against the "'let her rip' and just let natural immunity accumulate against this virus." When you read words like "unthinkable", your polemic and propaganda antennae should deploy.

The "let 'er rip" approach has some highly respectable proponents (see the Great Barrington Declaration, signed by some of the world's most eminent epidemiologists), and deserves respect, but I think it's a minority view. I don't share this view myself. It MIGHT be a good idea IF it were really possible to protect the most vulnerable AND if we could be sure that health care systems would not be overwhelmed, but my personal opinion is that we can't have any confidence at all concerning either of these things, particularly in places like the U.S. with such a high percentage of people of all ages with different co-morbidities (obesity is a big one).

But it's not necessary to slander, distort, or misrepresent facts about herd immunity, in order to make that point. Herd immunity is not binary, as I've been saying -- every additional immune person is one less transmission vector, so herd immunity builds up from zero. The more immunity, the slower the community spread of the disease. So people should not get the impression that we need 70% or 50% of people to be immune before we get any slowing of the pandemic.

Furthermore, the threshhold of FULL herd immunity is likely much lower than that calculated based on equal propensity to contact of all people, which does not reflect reality. In fact a small percentage of populations are responsible for a large proportion of potentially infectious interactions. These are the first people to get exposed and acquire some immunity, so the spread gets damped down a lot faster than the modelling indicates. This is one of the (several) reasons why the Imperial College study from the spring was so far off.

The closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 is SARS-CoV-1. Unlike the common cold coronaviruses, which mutate like mad, both of these coronaviruses mutate very slowly, because unlike the coronaviruses which cause the common cold, these two viruses have an error-checking mechanism in their replication system. So they mutate very very slowly compared to other coronaviruses. This is a huge advantage to our immune systems -- they are much less of a moving target.

Immunity against SARS-CoV-1 lasts about 7 years on average. The primary immune response is not antibodies, but T-cell memory.

This virus is relatively new, so there is still plenty which science doesn't know yet about the human immune response to it, but there is NO reason so far, except irrational fear, to assume that vaccines will not work. EVEN IF immunity is less durable than with SARS-CoV-1, that will not invalidate vaccines to such an extent that the pandemic will be uncontrollable. Dr. Fauci has said that he does not think that immunity will be less than a year. Even several months of immunity will make it possible to knock the pandemic in the head if we can roll out vaccines broadly enough.

There's some good scientific literature on all this in the links I posted above -- highly recommend.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Most people get colds in the winter and spring, but it is possible to get a cold any time of the year. Adults have an average of 2-3 colds per year, and children (especially under 6) have even more.

When considering something like Covid, it's important to consider what this "2-3" number represents. No doubt people are inoculated by multiples more cold viruses per year...they just don't know it. Outright this is important to understand if people assume that they're only infected by a virus 2-3x/year.

So generally the 2-3 number refers to the number of symptomatic colds a person gets. Whether or not a person has symptoms is dependent on a nebulous number of factors, but, generally, all else equal, for ditzel colds, the excitability of the immune system is what determines the number of colds +/- size/route of inoculum.

Infection with a cold virus can be completely asymptomatic, or, symptoms of a cold might be as little as a sore throat after lunch for a few hours that one attributes to spicy food, that goes away with sleep that night, or, a runny nose that one attributes to vacuuming the house or something, or a sore back for a day or two attributed to going to the grocery...and not a cold...so not being tallied in the "2-3" number. [[indeed, though, transmissibility is assumed less in asymptomatic people]]

A common misconception (fed by vitamin companies and some healthcare people alike), is that people who are always getting sick with a cold have a weak immune system, where some vitamin or something is needed to "boost" the immune system. Indeed some nutrients, particularly when deficient in the first place, can help stave off cold symptoms...but when a deficiency isn't being treated...it takes giving a lot of people a lot of pills to have a benefit.

Ultimately it's the immune response that creates symptoms...critical to remember this for conceptual purposes. So people who indeed never get sick, never get a cold, invariably are being inoculated, just that the totality of their body's reaction is such that the inoculation is handled "well" from the perspective of the person so infected. BUT, depending on the mechanism of action of a virus, a virus may disproportionately pick/choose/go after different populations (e.g. Spanish flu deaths averaged quite young..in people typically more symptomatic with colds...where Covid kills older...people routinely less symptomatic with colds).

Indeed there is not herd immunity in ALL diseases. Dockhead is just talking out of school, per routine. In retort he invariably will use a bunch of words that don't fit scientifically together to create more inaccurate/illogical conjectures than a reasonable person with expertise will be willing to dedicate time to untie.

[capn_billl]

The re-infections are concerning.

Thanks to Gord May for posting the Cold virus response.

One thing to remember is Covid is a retrovirus, which means it infects by changing your DNA. This change is permanent.

Each cell infected carries a copy of the virus, and passes it on when it replicates.

Like Herpes, and Chickenpox, and other retro viruses any time in the future when your body is reinfected, the virus in each cell will reactivate, and begin replication.

This could explain why subsequent infections are worse,...OR unless it was confirmed by DNA analysis, the first infection could have been another of the 200 Coronaviruses.

Still too many unknowns.

The death rate is a moving target. We aren't going to know the actual numbers for months, or years.

The reason isn't any big conspiracy, just how the data is collected.

A new disease is generally discovered when someone dies from it.
"OH GOD the death rate is 100%".

A second person gets it, and survives, "OH GOD the Death rate is 50%".

A million cases later, with 1000 dying, Now it's down to 0.1%.

Hit a couple nursing homes, and it shoots back up to 6%.

Eliminate co-morbidities, and you get a number somewhere somewhere between Ebola, and a bad Flu.

One good number so far is the death rate by age. Flu kills across the board, and has peaks often in the very young with new strains.

Covid death rate is low except in immune compromised, and very old.

That leaves isolating the vulnerable, like elderly, and those with health issues.

Although I don't look forward to coughing up a lung for 2 weeks, at least I know it's not likely to kill me.

And I look even less forward to losing work for another 6 months, (starvation has a higher death rate than any disease), or being stranded at my vacation spot indefinitely, (1st world problems, I know, but there are thousands of quarantined passengers).

It's almost like we forgot all the lessons of 1000 years of maritime experience.

[GordMay]

I find it ironic to note that:
Great Barrington rejects the Great Barrington Declaration.

The Declaration, advocating a herd immunity COVID-19 solution, was developed and distributed by the American Institute for Economic Research, located in our town. The town itself had no role in, or forewarning of, the declaration bearing the town’s name.
Many local residents, business owners and town leaders, riled that the town is now associated with the Declaration, wish to clarify the record.
“We are a COVID safe community, we are not tossing off our masks,” said Town Manager Mark Pruhenski. “This Declaration has gained national headlines and has created harmful misperceptions—just as we are doing all we can to protect residents, employees and visitors.”
Townspeople have been following protocols for preventing virus transmission, following CDC and other public health guidance, and common sense. Businesses are following our town’s GBSafe program, for both employee and customer safety.
“We wear masks, keep safe distances as we can in public,” said Selectboard Chair Stephen C. Bannon. “We find enjoyment in our vast open spaces, trails, lakes and rivers, hiking, biking, and exploring. We have safe social pods with neighbors, family and friends.
“We are among the lowest risk towns in the state, and we hope to keep it that way,” he said.
Many town leaders believe herd immunity is a dangerous COVID-19 strategy: Achieving herd immunity levels could cost millions of lives, and this is unacceptable, particularly in a nation where far too many people live with risky, underlying health conditions. Many hospitals and front-line workers have been overwhelmed by vast waves of stricken patients.
We share one aspect of the Declaration: great empathy and concern for the pandemic’s toll on communities, businesses, families, children, isolated elders.
Great Barrington is working hard to mitigate some of these impacts: A ride and shopping service helps seniors. Small, supervised, in-person learning pods support essential workers’ children. Our food banks are full with donations.
Anyone who might avoid Great Barrington, due to confusion over the Declaration, is invited to visit and see how COVID-safe works in a small New England town
Please wear a mask.
Town Rejects Affiliation with 'Great Barrington Declaration'
➥ https://www.townofgb.org/home/news/t...on-declaration

[Montanan]

Denmark plans to cull its more than 15 million mink population over fears that a mutation of the novel coronavirus in the animals has spread to humans.

During a press conference on Wednesday, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that at least 12 people have been infected with the mutated virus, which originated in its mink farms.

Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said that half of the 783 human COVID-19 cases in northern Denmark ”are related” to mink. (In total, the country has at least 51,042 COVID-19 cases in humans and over 725 deaths,

“It is very, very serious,” Frederiksen said, adding that their decision to eliminate the country's entire mink population also stemmed from fears that the mutation may create difficulties for the efficacy of future vaccines. “We have a great responsibility towards our own population, but with the mutation that has now been found, we have an even greater responsibility for the rest of the world as well,”

It will cost Denmark — the world's largest producer of mink furs — up to 5 billion kroner ($785 million) to cull the country's 15 million minks.

Overall, there are between 15 and 17 million minks on about 1,100 farms in Denmark.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...213252989.html

[Montanan]

Denmark announced strict new lockdown rules on Thursday in the north of the country after authorities discovered a mutated coronavirus strain in minks bred in the region, prompting a nationwide cull that will devastate the large pelt industry.
Seven municipalities in northern Denmark, home to most of the country's mink farms, will face restrictions on movement across county lines, while restaurants and bars will be closed, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a press conference.
Schools will be closed and all public transport will be shut until Dec 3., she said, encouraging inhabitants in the region to stay within their municipality and get tested.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/denmark-i...180010341.html

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

. . . One thing to remember is Covid is a retrovirus, which means it infects by changing your DNA. This change is permanent.

Each cell infected carries a copy of the virus, and passes it on when it replicates.

Like Herpes, and Chickenpox, and other retro viruses any time in the future when your body is reinfected, the virus in each cell will reactivate, and begin replication.. . .

Umm, SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, but it is not a retrovirus. It's classified in Group IV in the Baltimore system; retroviruses are in Groups VI and VII. See: https://microbiologynote.com/baltimo...em-of-viruses/

Neither are herpes viruses retroviruses. Herpes viruses are large DNA viruses in Groups I and II; chickenpox (VZV) is in the herpes family.

Retroviruses replicate by reverse transcription of DNA from RNA; backwards from the way most viruses work (the way most viruses work is "DNA makes RNA makes protein").

Nuts and bolts of the beta-coronviruses: https://viralzone.expasy.org/764?outline=all_by_species

Virus replication sequences:

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Denmark announced strict new lockdown rules on Thursday in the north of the country after authorities discovered a mutated coronavirus strain in minks bred in the region, prompting a nationwide cull that will devastate the large pelt industry.
Seven municipalities in northern Denmark, home to most of the country's mink farms, will face restrictions on movement across county lines, while restaurants and bars will be closed, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a press conference.
Schools will be closed and all public transport will be shut until Dec 3., she said, encouraging inhabitants in the region to stay within their municipality and get tested.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/denmark-i...180010341.html

This is alarming. What kind of times are we living in.

https://cphpost.dk/?p=120053

The Danish Serum Institute believes the strain of the virus carried by these minks may be more resistant and therefore more dangerous. That's all we needed at this moment is something like this.

The Danes are in the process of slaughtering 17 million (!) minks -- drastic action.

We shall see what this leads to. I'm in Denmark at the moment myself.

[Dockhead]

People are slightly freaking out about the mink mutation. UK just barred entry to anyone from Denmark, for fear of this variant of the virus.


Although I'm not sure there is any evidence, or anything but speculation, that this strain may be more resistant to human immunity.



What a world we live in . . . When is this nightmare going to be over?

[GordMay]

Minks were infected following exposure from infected humans.

Minks can act as a reservoir of SARS-CoV-2, passing the virus between them, and pose a risk for virus spill-over from mink to humans.
People can then transmit this virus, within the human population. Additionally, spill-back (human to mink transmission) can occur.

It remains a concern when any animal virus spills in to the human population, or when an animal population could contribute to amplifying and spreading a virus affecting humans.

As viruses move between human and animal populations, genetic modifications in the virus can occur. These changes can be identified through whole genome sequencing, and when found, experiments can study the possible implications of these changes on the disease in humans.

[wolfgal]

hey guys,

forgive me if this is a repeat. i admit that i have not kept up with the thread, have covid-fatigue, spending a very lonely lockdown here in normandy: the fridge has been empty for a week and... i really do not care ... how i just want to sail!!!!

anyway, i've read here and there about the success of covid-sniffing dogs (Gord can surely document this better than anyone - are you out there?).

from what i've seen, there are places a bit all over where the dogs have been trained with HUGE success rates.

if it ONLY takes 2 to 8 weeks to train a dog and any race of dog can be trained (apparently), i do not understand why governments all over the world are still waiting for Godot (the vaccine) when they can train folks who love dogs, want to be useful and want to get outside... to walk around or standing watch in different places with trained dogs.


does anyone know WHY these dog-taining/dog handler schools are not opening like wildfire?

thanks

wolfie

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

hey guys,

forgive me if this is a repeat. i admit that i have not kept up with the thread, have covid-fatigue, spending a very lonely lockdown here in normandy: the fridge has been empty for a week and... i really do not care ... how i just want to sail!!!!

anyway, i've read here and there about the success of covid-sniffing dogs (Gord can surely document this better than anyone - are you out there?).

from what i've seen, there are places a bit all over where the dogs have been trained with HUGE success rates.

if it ONLY takes 2 to 8 weeks to train a dog and any race of dog can be trained (apparently), i do not understand why governments all over the world are still waiting for Godot (the vaccine) when they can train folks who love dogs, want to be useful and want to get outside... to walk around or standing watch in different places with trained dogs.

does anyone know WHY these dog-taining/dog handler schools are not opening like wildfire?

thanks

wolfie

The Finns have already deployed trained dogs at Finnish airports, first such program in Europe. It seems like the dogs are even more accurate than PCR tests and results are nearly instantaneous.

This is not going to be enough to make a vaccine unnecessary, but sure could facilitate safe travel. Screen all passengers before they get on a plane and Bob's your uncle.

Could be really big for the Australians, who have mroe or less eradicated the virus from Australia, but how can they keep their borders closed for another year?

We can also imagine that dog testing might make big events possible -- just screen everyone before they come in.

Even restaurants could benefit from this (and our chance to visit restaurants). Note that it's now happened to me twice recently -- once in Warsaw and once in Riga -- that restaurants have tested my temperature before letting me enter. So we adapt to pandemic conditions.

[Quebramar]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

[I]"The minutes of SAGE [the scientific advisory group to government] record that shortly before the lockdown, the behavioral scientists (in the government’s advisory panel) advised against the use of coercive powers. Citizens should be treated as rational actors, taking decisions for themselves and managing personal risk. Government did not act on that advice. Driven by the public panic and the general demand for action it opted for a course that it believed would make it popular – it chose – coercion.".

What resembled to a government* in Belgium tried the route of citizen responsibility and sense of community after the summer, whilst experts were advising more strict measures to make sure people kept preventing measures as top-of-mind. The result is the new world record (after a spot on the podium for a long time in the first wave) of infection rate... it is felt that only a minority of citizens are adhering to the new (much stricter) measures.

*over 1.5y to form a government whilst the Covid crisis was booming... No less than 9 ministers and Secretaries of State in charge of health competencies just made things more inefficient... how surreal is this country?! Such a shame...

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Quebramar

What resembled to a government* in Belgium tried the route of citizen responsibility and sense of community after the summer, whilst experts were advising more strict measures to make sure people kept preventing measures as top-of-mind. The result is the new world record (after a spot on the podium for a long time in the first wave) of infection rate... it is felt that only a minority of citizens are adhering to the new (much stricter) measures.

*over 1.5y to form a government whilst the Covid crisis was booming... No less than 9 ministers and Secretaries of State in charge of health competencies just made things more inefficient... how surreal is this country?! Such a shame...

The pandemic is a real stress test for governments and societies.


Don't feel bad. By the time this is over I reckon the world record for infection rates will have passed from hand to hand.