Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The situation today with daily case rates:

Attachment 227099

This is somewhat encouraging:

* Germany has total flattened the curve, at a bit more than 200 daily cases, which isn't all that bad.
* Latvia has flattened its curve at something less than 200.
* Sweden may have kinked downward, at an extremely high rate for Northern Europe of more than 400 cases. I am nervously watching Sweden.
* Lithuania with the worst outbreak in Northern Europe has turned downward from nearly 600 daily cases per million, but it's not clear whether the curve is flattened.
* Estonia troubling, working on 200 daily cases.
* Denmark somewhat troubling -- rising again towards 200 cases.

* Latvia seems stable at just under 200 cases.
* Finland just keeps on with its inexplicably, ridiculously low case rate, just 39.50, by far the lowest in Europe. Why? And for how long?

Really good news about Germany. That's a big country. A big outbreak like in France would be terrible news.
.........
Stay tuned.

Just to be clear, all of these cases numbers are per million or have I misunderstood the post or the graph.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

* * *

What we really care about now is that these infection curves are peaking/flattening -- that what has happened in Lithuania does not happen in the rest of Northern Europe. Stay tuned.

Any indication why the infection curves are starting to peak/flatten in some countries, i.e. any correlation with more restrictive govt policies or people otherwise being more cautious on their own? Seems like both the surges and the flattening (in some countries) occurred over a significantly shorter time span than in the early days.

And I suppose we still don't know what accounts for the generally lower mortality rates.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

... * Finland just keeps on with its inexplicably, ridiculously low case rate, just 39.50, by far the lowest in Europe. Why? And for how long? ...

The Finns enjoy several advantages, over most of us.
For instance:
They expect, and prepare for, doomsday catastrophes.
They're largely antisocial, socialists.

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Exile

Any indication why the infection curves are starting to peak/flatten in some countries, i.e. any correlation with more restrictive govt policies or people otherwise being more cautious on their own? Seems like both the surges and the flattening (in some countries) occurred over a significantly shorter time span than in the early days.

And I suppose we still don't know what accounts for the generally lower mortality rates.

Indications, yes. Better and faster response to outbreaks, tracking and testing and what you said above. It all matters. What comes to mortality rates you really can't say they are comparable with spring as nobody had a clue how many were infected. Besides now it's known better what works when treating patients..

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The Finns enjoy several advantages, over most of us.
For instance:
They expect, and prepare for, doomsday catastrophes.
They're largely antisocial, socialists.

Not exactly. Like much of Scandanavia, if they were truly socialist they'd likely never be able to afford the extensive benefits they provide to their citizenry.

"And before critics roll out the "S" word, let's make it clear that while Finns enjoy an expansive social safety net, good pensions, and robust sick and family leave protections, their economy cannot be characterized in good faith as a socialist. Finland is a thoroughly capitalist nation: Some people make lots of money, and others make very little. But Finland has chosen a more inclusive form of capitalism that ensures that the wealthiest Finns pay their fair share in taxes while the poorest Finns don't suffer for lack of access to food, clothing, shelter, and medical care. In so doing, they've redefined what freedom means in the modern world."

Finland has a capitalist economy

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The Finns enjoy several advantages, over most of us.
For instance:
They expect, and prepare for, doomsday catastrophes.
They're largely antisocial, socialists.

You couldn't be more wrong I think generally not so different from Canucks living outside the biggest metropoles and a tad of wildling in the mix (have you heard of Findians?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq43Yqi5-UE

) Individualists above all, but in the end and despite constant complaining the do as they are told to..

[Exile]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Indications, yes. Better and faster response to outbreaks, tracking and testing and what you said above. It all matters. What comes to mortality rates you really can't say they are comparable with spring as nobody had a clue how many were infected. Besides now it's known better what works when treating patients..

You're probably correct about cause and effect on infection rates but there are enough instances where this didn't and doesn't pan out that it'd be nice to see some statistics. Maybe not realistic for awhile. In my view, the uncertainty lends itself towards compliance with social distancing and mask usage, not only because that's what much of the science supports but because it's relatively innocuous. Additional restrictions -- up to and including the various forms of "lockdowns" -- are a much tougher call.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Just to be clear, all of these cases numbers are per million or have I misunderstood the post or the graph.

You are correct

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Exile

Not exactly. Like much of Scandanavia, if they were truly socialist they'd likely never be able to afford the extensive benefits they provide to their citizenry.

"And before critics roll out the "S" word, let's make it clear that while Finns enjoy an expansive social safety net, good pensions, and robust sick and family leave protections, their economy cannot be characterized in good faith as a socialist. Finland is a thoroughly capitalist nation: Some people make lots of money, and others make very little. But Finland has chosen a more inclusive form of capitalism that ensures that the wealthiest Finns pay their fair share in taxes while the poorest Finns don't suffer for lack of access to food, clothing, shelter, and medical care. In so doing, they've redefined what freedom means in the modern world."

Finland has a capitalist economy

Just point of order: Finland is NOT in Scandinavia. The Nordic countries consist of Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland) plus Finland, AKA "Fennoscandia". Estonia considers itself a Nordic country (I was surprised to learn recently), but I doubt if any of the rest of them do.

As to "Finland is a thoroughly capitalist nation" -- indeed! Finland is in the Top 10 in a recent economic freedom index, rated above the U.S. I.e., more capitalist than the U.S. is. With flatter taxes, lower corporate income tax rate (like half, even after the Trump tax cuts), greater ease of doing business, no inheritance or wealth taxes, very low property taxes, great incentives to entrepreneurship.

Only little quibble would be this: "But Finland has chosen a more inclusive form of capitalism that ensures that the wealthiest Finns pay their fair share in taxes" Actually, the wealthy in Finland pay LESS proportionately of the total tax burden, than in the U.S. The national income tax in Finland is a FLAT TAX (only the regional part is mildly progressive). Everyone in Finland, including especially the middle classes, pay relatively high taxes. But they receive high quality services for those taxes, so it's not clear that these high taxes are such a burden. It's a bloody good system. But rather than "wealthiest Finns paying their share", it's more "middle class pays its own way", which characterizes the Finnish tax system.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Just point of order: Finland is NOT in Scandinavia. The Nordic countries consist of Scandinavia (Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland) plus Finland, AKA "Fennoscandia". Estonia considers itself a Nordic country (I was surprised to learn recently), but I doubt if any of the rest of them do.

As to "Finland is a thoroughly capitalist nation" -- indeed! Finland is in the Top 10 in a recent economic freedom index, rated above the U.S. I.e., more capitalist than the U.S. is. With flatter taxes, lower corporate income tax rate (like half, even after the Trump tax cuts), greater ease of doing business, no inheritance or wealth taxes, very low property taxes, great incentives to entrepreneurship.

Only little quibble would be this: "But Finland has chosen a more inclusive form of capitalism that ensures that the wealthiest Finns pay their fair share in taxes" Actually, the wealthy in Finland pay LESS proportionately of the total tax burden, than in the U.S. The national income tax in Finland is a FLAT TAX (only the regional part is mildly progressive). Everyone in Finland, including especially the middle classes, pay relatively high taxes. But they receive high quality services for those taxes, so it's not clear that these high taxes are such a burden. It's a bloody good system. But rather than "wealthiest Finns paying their share", it's more "middle class pays its own way", which characterizes the Finnish tax system.

surprisingly for Americans , when you add up all their typical tax burdens, like federal and state , and property taxes etc , you end up with a tax take that is not much different to the average European " pinko " country.

when you add in medial costs either indirect via employers, direct insurance costs or simply uninsured medical bills , you tilt the take home pay significantly in favor of many European tax systems.

The other suprising thing which leads from the point above , is if you add in military spending in the US , which is largely re-circulated within the US and is therefore somewhat of a " social programme", you find the US and average EU countries need to take about similar amounts of tax from their economies as they both spend broadly similar amounts of taxpayers money even though the distribution of such Gov largesse !, is different.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

surprisingly for Americans , when you add up all their typical tax burdens, like federal and state , and property taxes etc , you end up with a tax take that is not much different to the average European " pinko " country.

when you add in medial costs either indirect via employers, direct insurance costs or simply uninsured medical bills , you tilt the take home pay significantly in favor of many European tax systems.

The other suprising thing which leads from the point above , is if you add in military spending in the US , which is largely re-circulated within the US and is therefore somewhat of a " social programme", you find the US and average EU countries need to take about similar amounts of tax from their economies as they both spend broadly similar amounts of taxpayers money even though the distribution of such Gov largesse !, is different.

Bingo. You are exactly correct on all of this. However sad as this bitter reality is for us Americans.

[Wotname]

Off topic but...

I wonder if the Finns simply pay the required taxes rather than putting much effort and $$ trying to circumvent 'the guvmit stealing MY money'

Perhaps they see the purpose and experience the value of paying their dues...

Maybe there is a link between tax paying and low Covid19 case numbers

Mind you, this argument wouldn't hold water in Australia, plenty of tax dodgers here yet case numbers remain low.

[GordMay]

“Don't go to gyms, don't go to libraries, don't host dinners. Cancel.”
Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven announced a ban on public gatherings of more than eight people, as the country seeks to come to grips with a second wave of the pandemic.
➥ https://news.trust.org/item/20201116135516-ilta9

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“Don't go to gyms, don't go to libraries, don't host dinners. Cancel.”
Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven announced a ban on public gatherings of more than eight people, as the country seeks to come to grips with a second wave of the pandemic.
➥ https://news.trust.org/item/20201116135516-ilta9

Yep. We're seeing stricter measures across Northern Europe. I'm not sure what's going on with the statistics, but the daily case rate (per millions) in Sweden has crashed to around 200 (yesterday) from over 400 (7 day rolling average); we'll see if the 7 day rolling average converges with this. Denmark, Latvia, Estonia seem to be stabilizing around 200. We're hoping very much that this is something like the peak of the second wave -- we shall see.


The worst country in this region, Lithuania, has also seen daily case rates crash from a peak of about 600 (7 day rolling average) to 354 (yesterday) -- hope very much that the numbers are going the right way there.

[Dockhead]

This thread is about the Baltic Sea area in the age of plague, but as far as I can recall, we haven't mentioned Russia even once. I guess it's understandable since the Russian borders are hermetically sealed and Russia is off the menu of cruising destinations this year.


But the whole Eastern Baltic Sea was under the dominion of the Russian Empire at one time, so Russia casts a long shadow over the region. St. Petersburg is by far the largest coastal city on the Baltic Sea, bigger than Paris, bigger than all the other big coastal cities combined -- Stockholm, Helsinki, Copenhagen, Gdansk, Tallinn, Riga . . . .



So everywhere in the Baltic Sea, you can get Russian television, and as a Russian speaker, I sometimes tune in when there's nothing good on Netflix (which is all the time).


I've just seen a delightful television play on REN-TV, typical of this culture, and concerning the Baltic Sea. Finns will particularly like this one. A disgraced Spetsnaz unit in Vyborg is kidnapped by a group of "Finnish terrorists". They are taken by force to a disputed island in the Baltic, where a group of Finnish scientists are to be murdered, then the affair pinned to the kidnapped Spetsnaztsov. Many well-staged action sequences follow, with the leader of the terrorists giving long speeches about his father fighting the Soviets in the Winter War. At the end of all this, the kidnapped Spetsnaztsi manage to free themselves, save the Finnish scientists, and foil the plot. And as it turns out -- it's not the Finns who have staged all of this -- rather, an Evil Russian Corporation, which hired the Finns to play terrorists, which imagines that the international scandal might lead to the lifting of sanctions and increased profits.


Delightful stuff. Our TV is much less interesting. It's been a few years since I've sailed Russian waters and I feel a bit homesick. Vyborg, by the way, is one of the most fascinating cruising destinations in the Baltic.