Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

The Swedish Prime Minister has made a rare address to the nation about the pandemic:


https://www.thelocal.se/20201122/in-...-to-the-nation


"Early in spring, we faced a gigantic challenge in the form of a pandemic.
The new coronavirus forced us all to make big sacrifices.
We have had to give up so much of that we hold dear.
We have had to cancel or avoid so much of our daily life.
And tonight, late in November 2020, it is clear that it is going to take time before we can go back to normal.
That is why I am once again about to ask you for something very difficult but utterly necessary.
The little respite we got this summer and autumn is truly over.
Then, neighbours and friends could see each other outside and have a fika. We could meet our fragile relatives out in the fresh air.
Life was not as normal – but there were moments during beautiful summer days that almost felt like it.
In spring, many people said that despite everything it made life easier that the coronavirus hit during the lightness of March and not the darkness of November.
It is November now.
People's health and lives are still in danger.
And the danger is increasing.
More people are getting infected.
More intensive care beds are being used for treating seriously ill Covid patients. More people are dying.
Let us remember that more than 6,000 people in Sweden have already died with Covid-19. Let us remember that around each deceased person are people who have lost a beloved parent, a beloved child or a beloved friend.
Let us remember how overworked healthcare and social care staff were. And let us remember that they are still working hard, day and night, to save lives.
The things we do wrong now as a country, we will suffer for later. The things we do right, will give us joy later.
What we do now will affect what our Lucia celebrations will look like. What Christmas celebrations will look like. Who will still be there with us this Christmas.
It may sound harsh. It may sound brutal. But reality is exactly that harsh and brutal.
We know how to flatten the curve of infection.
We have done it before. We did it in spring.
Then, when the coronavirus reached our country, we agreed on taking responsibility.
We took responsibility for Sweden. We protected ourselves, our loved ones and people we don't even know.
We took responsibility and gave staff in healthcare and social care a chance to handle the acute crisis.
We did it together. That's our strength, Sweden's strength. . . . "

Bla bla bla. Even highly enlightened countries like Sweden are not above this kind of nationalist stuff.

The infection rate in Sweden is now over 400 daily cases per million, second highest in the Baltic region. It is dropped off during the last week, but we shall see how it goes.

[Dockhead]

The situation now:





It's good to see daily infection rates falling in most European countries, particularly the dramatic drop in France and the significant drop in the UK. Cases in Germany are slowly declining. In the Baltic region: Latvia and Estonia are worrying. Lithuania continues to be one of the worst spots in Europe. Sweden is bad but may be trending down. Finland is trending up, from a very low base, but people here are alarmed.



As far as daily deaths per million are concerned:





Italy and France are having death rates not far off the worst of it in the Spring; Italy over 10 per million.


In Germany, the least affected European country outside of the Nordics, the death rate is still fairly low at 2.62 (7 day rolling average) but steadily rises.


Lithuania is the only country in the Nordic and Baltic region with a really high death rate, 5.67, almost as bad as the UK. Latvia is over 2, Sweden 1.65, the rest of the region is under 1, basically none in Finland with 0.15.


So is the second wave subsiding? The death rate for Europe as a whole is 6. Daily infection rate for Europe as a whole peaked on 9 November at 379 and has been gradually declining since then, to 240 yesterday (compare to 511 in the U.S.). So perhaps.

[GordMay]

WHO COVID envoy fears third wave, calls Europe response 'incomplete'
Europe briefly enjoyed sinking infection rates that are now surging again as WHO’s David Nabarro warns of a third wave, in early 2021, if governments repeat, what he said, was a failure to do what was needed to prevent the second wave of infections.
Nabarro lauded the response of Asian countries such as South Korea, where infections are now relatively low:
“People are fully engaged, they take on behaviours that make it difficult for the virus. They keep their distance, wear masks, isolate when they’re sick, wash hands and surfaces. They protect the most endangered groups.” Nabarro also said Asia did not relax restrictions prematurely.
“You must wait until case numbers are low and stay low,” he said. “Europe’s reaction was incomplete.”
➥ https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/who-cov...lete-/46176986
➥ https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/who-cov...lete-/46176986

[goboatingnow]

Germany is clearly struggling and Sweden’s strategy under tegnell is now being openly challenged , how the man hasn’t resigned is beyond me.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

WHO COVID envoy fears third wave, calls Europe response 'incomplete'
Europe briefly enjoyed sinking infection rates that are now surging again as WHO’s David Nabarro warns of a third wave, in early 2021, if governments repeat, what he said, was a failure to do what was needed to prevent the second wave of infections.
Nabarro lauded the response of Asian countries such as South Korea, where infections are now relatively low:
“People are fully engaged, they take on behaviours that make it difficult for the virus. They keep their distance, wear masks, isolate when they’re sick, wash hands and surfaces. They protect the most endangered groups.” Nabarro also said Asia did not relax restrictions prematurely.
“You must wait until case numbers are low and stay low,” he said. “Europe’s reaction was incomplete.”
➥ https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/who-cov...lete-/46176986
➥ https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/who-cov...lete-/46176986

I think one of the things which happened in Europe was that unsustainable, unrepeatable measures were used in the Spring. So when the second wave started, those countries which had been in lockdown didn't know what to do when faced with rising infections, and then only after the virus was totally rampant, returned to lockdown because there was no other option, even though the second lockdown seemed impossible, unaffordable, and even unenforceable with huge resistance from the populations. That's basically what we've seen in France, Spain, Italy and UK. Countries which used more nuanced and sustainable measures, like Germany and the rest of Northern Europe, have done far better.

I have cautioned again and again against jumping to conclusions about correlation vs causation, but here for once there really is a very strong correlation.

[goboatingnow]

The U.K. is doing badly largely because it mismanaged it’s response strategy and continues to do so. It fumbled its initial response , undertook half hearted responses and then has been finally pushed into more extreme situations as the numbers climbed

[goboatingnow]

The German response is now widely seen in Germany as insufficient and the federalist approach has failed and merkel is under severe pressure to homogenise the national response

“Germany's November lockdown to tame the coronavirus spread should be extended into December, two senior politicians suggested. Regional state premiers will debate further steps with Angela Merkel on Wednesday.
Germany's November lockdown, often called "lockdown light" as schools, stores and many businesses remain open, could need to be extended into December, even toward Christmas, to hold the spread of the coronavirus in check, Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Bavaria's state premier, Markus Söder, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper”

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Germany is clearly struggling and Sweden’s strategy under tegnell is now being openly challenged , how the man hasn’t resigned is beyond me.

What? Germany is doing great, and Sweden has 4x lower death rate than the European average. Tegnell is a hero all over the Nordic region and is probably the most popular man in Sweden right now, eclipsing the PM and all political leaders. See:https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconv...dership-148498 I find this statement simply bizarre.

"The Swedish state epidemiologist*Anders Tegnell*is a noteworthy example. His popularity in Sweden has reached levels normally beyond even the most popular political leaders. T-shirts bearing slogans such as “All power to Tegnell, our liberator” have become trendy, and more than one fan has had Tegnell’s face tattooed on their body.

"Tegnell is given more airtime and was attributed greater leadership qualities than the Swedish prime minister, Stefan Löfven. Commentators have even referred to him as*landsfader*(father of the nation), which, with its overtones of Roman Augustan patriarchy, could hardly be more political."

[goboatingnow]

The major difference in european countries this time has been schools and colleges have remained open , because so much political pressure was brought to bear to reopen them

Ireland’s response ( regarded as one of most severe in Europe) was thSt the spring lockdown with schools closed was very effective

Yet the current one , ( close to 70% of the pop approved the second lockdown ) is very similar , but the numbers are not falling to the same extent. The difference , the schools are open

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The German response is now widely seen in Germany as insufficient and the federalist approach has failed and merkel is under severe pressure to homogenise the national response

“Germany's November lockdown to tame the coronavirus spread should be extended into December, two senior politicians suggested. Regional state premiers will debate further steps with Angela Merkel on Wednesday.
Germany's November lockdown, often called "lockdown light" as schools, stores and many businesses remain open, could need to be extended into December, even toward Christmas, to hold the spread of the coronavirus in check, Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Bavaria's state premier, Markus Söder, told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper”

This is such a fantastic example of confirmation bias - "widely seen"? By whom? Merkel is at the height of her popularity, with a staggering 72% approval rating https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fai...ews-14261/amp/

Her science-driven leadership is almost universally praised in Germany. I'm a German speaker and have ties in Germany

[goboatingnow]

I didn’t say she was unpopular I said she is under pressure to change the federalist nature of Germany’s Covid strategy as the medical system is now at risk of being overwhelmed

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

... "The Swedish state epidemiologist*Anders Tegnell*is a noteworthy example. His popularity in Sweden has reached levels normally beyond even the most popular political leaders. T-shirts bearing slogans such as “All power to Tegnell, our liberator” have become trendy, and more than one fan has had Tegnell’s face tattooed on their body...

At the start of this year, Anders Tegnell was just a low-profile bureaucrat, in a country of 10m people, heading a department that collects and analyses data on public health.

Today, he has become one of the best known, and most controversial, figures, of the global coronavirus crisis.
Tegnell has become such a polarizing figure that, while 2,000 Swedish scientists have signed a petition denouncing his strategy, more than 100,000 people have joined Anders Tegnell fan clubs.

“It’s been so, so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash” ~ by Gretchen Vogel

“... In the population as a whole, the impact of Sweden’s approach is unmistakable. More than 94,000 people have so far been diagnosed with COVID-19, and at least 5895 have died. The country has seen roughly 590 deaths per million—on par with 591 per million in the United States and 600 in Italy, but many times the 50 per million in Norway, 108 in Denmark, and 113 in Germany.
Another way to measure the pandemic’s impact is to look at “excess deaths,” the difference between the number of people who died this year and average deaths in earlier years. Those curves show Sweden did not suffer as many excess deaths as England and Wales—whose tolls were among Europe’s highest—but many more than Germany and its Nordic neighbors. Immigrant communities were hit very hard. Between March and September, 111 people from Somalia and 247 from Syria died, compared with 5-year averages of 34 and 93, respectively.
Tegnell has said repeatedly that the Swedish strategy takes a holistic view of public health, aiming to balance the risk of the virus with the damage from countermeasures like closed schools. The goal was to protect the elderly and other high-risk groups while slowing viral spread enough to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. Protecting the economy was not the aim, he says. (Initial data suggest Sweden’s economy contracted about as much as its immediate neighbors’ as exports and consumer spending dropped.) ...”

“It’s been so, so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash” ~ by Gretchen Vogel (Oct. 6, 2020)
➥ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ierce-backlash

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I didn’t say she was unpopular I said she is under pressure to change the federalist nature of Germany’s Covid strategy as the medical system is now at risk of being overwhelmed

The federalist nature of Germany's Covid response is inherent in the federalist nature of the German nation as embodied in the German Constitution. It is not in Merkel's power, and not in the power of the Bundestag, to arrogate power from the Länder. Someone you've been reading is talking nonsense.

Germany has done by far the best among any of the large European countries, with cumulative deaths per million of only 171, compared to 809 UK, 746 France, 911 Spain, 825 Italy. Merkel's leadership, and the German pandemic response altogether, are considered pretty exemplary for a big country. Of course there is controversy everywhere, but in Germany by far the greatest amount of dissent comes from those who consider the measures to be too harsh. Although they are far milder than in any other large European country, with no lockdown ever except in two of the 16 Länder.

German hospitals are busy, but they are not overwhelmed - they are still taking COVID cases from other countries. And the daily infection rates in Germany have been falling for a couple of weeks now. The German people have high confidence in the government's pandemic response, even higher than in Sweden (https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.the...covid-response) .

[goboatingnow]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1244275

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Godshalk

Dockhead, thank you for this post even though the future is very murky. My boat is also in Denmark and, I am told, work towards launch is progressing. However, my plans are on hold for now. As an American, my options may be more limited than those of EU citizens. Plan A is/was German and French canals to the Med this summer. Plan D is cruising in Maine on OPBs. Then there is Plan E...

Please keep us current.

I think we spoke in the Spring.


Since that time, Denmark has different rules for entering the country. Owning a boat which is physically in Denmark is already a valid reason for a person to come from (at least) any part of the EU.


You might check -- possibly you can also come from the U.S. if your boat is in Denmark.