Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Godshalk]

Thank you for the update. In May, I had my boat shipped to the US and enjoyed a wonderful summer on the coast of Maine. I miss Europe but am glad to be able to be aboard.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1244275

That article is a month old.

Since then, the curve has turned downward in Germany or at least is well flattened:



And it's turned down at a daily case rate (218 per million on a 7 day rolling average) which is 3x (!) below the European average. Their daily death rate is 2.7 and still increasing, but this is a lagging metric behind infections. And the European average death rate is 6.15. The Germans are doing very well, relative to most of the rest of the world. And as I wrote: By far the best among large European countries.

[GordMay]

On 5 April, Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist for the Swedish public health authority, sent an email to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) expressing concern about proposed new advice that face masks worn in public could slow the spread of the pandemic coronavirus. “We would like to warn against the publication of this advice,” Tegnell wrote. How much people without symptoms contribute to spread was a “question that remains unanswered,” he wrote, and the advice “would also imply that the spread is airborne, which would seriously harm further communication and trust among the population and health care workers.”

On 8 April, ECDC published its recommendations anyway, in line with an emerging scientific consensus.

Evidently, Anders Tegnell and the Folkhalsomyndigheten haven't changed their minds, over the intervening 6+ months.
I suppose they haven't read (or believed) the numerous evidentiary studies.


The Public Health Agency of Sweden (Folkhalsomyndigheten)

Current Advice:

“What is your advice regarding face masks?” Updated: 10/20/2020
“We do not currently recommend face masks in public settings since the scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is unclear. However, there may be situations where face masks can be useful despite the uncertain state of knowledge about the effects.
We will therefore, in dialogue with the County Medical Offices, decide on situations where recommendations to wear a face mask could be valuable at national or regional level. Examples of such situations could be a visit to the optician or when you cannot avoid using public transport even though it is crowded.
Face masks must always be seen as complementary to other recommendations: stay at home when you have symptoms, wash your hands regularly and keep at a distance from others.”

Why are countries acting differently over face masks? Updated: 7/13/2020
The scientific evidence around the effectiveness of face masks in combatting the spread of infection is weak, which is why different countries have arrived at different recommendations.
Some countries have chosen to view face masks as a form of security and hope that universal use of face masks will reduce the risk of infection spreading from people who are in the incubation period, before the symptoms are apparent, or who have such mild or unspecific symptoms that they do not consider themselves ill.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden does not recommend the general use of face masks, as a face mask that itches or slips down below the nose may mean a person is regularly touching their mouth, eyes or nose with their hands, which can increase the risk of the infection spreading.
Use of a facemask may also encourage people with mild symptoms to go out into the community, which might increase the spread of infection.
The Public Health Agency of Sweden is constantly assessing the state of knowledge in this area and reviews new information from various sources."

More Here ➥ https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...19/prevention/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

At the start of this year, Anders Tegnell was just a low-profile bureaucrat, in a country of 10m people, heading a department that collects and analyses data on public health.

This is a very strange way to describe Tegnell -- "bureaucrat"? "Low profile"? Not indeed -- Tegnell is an internationally renowned epidemiologist, a scientist through and through, and his position, as State Epidemiologist of Sweden, is far more than bureaucratic.

Ignorant journalists write about Sweden without having a clue about what the country is like or what is actually happening there. How the health authorities, and pandemic response, work from a legal point of view is actually very relevant and interesting.

Sweden has a Constitutional principle known as the Prohibition Against Ministerial Rule, see: https://www.government.se/how-sweden...-are-governed/. So public agencies like the Folkhälsomyndigheten, the Public Health Agency, have independent decision-making power which cannot be interfered with by the government.

So Sweden, more than any other country in the world, has had pandemic policies formulated excluslively by scientists with no interference by politicians. Tegnell, a scientist, is THE guy who, in consultation with his team of scientists, makes ALL of the decisions about pandemic measures. "Collects and analyzes data on public health"? Utter nonsense. The Folkhälsomyndigheten is practically an independent branch of government with independent decision-making power on all matters of public health, and did some of the most extensive pandemic planning in the world, including drills, extensive simulations, planning including thousands of pages of plans.

Originally Posted by GordMay

.. .Today, he has become one of the best known, and most controversial, figures, of the global coronavirus crisis.


Tegnell has become such a polarizing figure that, while 2,000 Swedish scientists have signed a petition denouncing his strategy, more than 100,000 people have joined Anders Tegnell fan clubs.

This petition, signed on 20 March, is Sweden's answer to the Great Barrington Declaration in the U.S. -- a noisy minority position which does not represent any kind of scientific consensus, nor does it represent public opinion. The difference being that in Sweden, 70% of the population support the pandemic response, whereas in the U.S., it's 57.1% who DISapprove of the pandemic response.

Oh, and the 2,000 Swedish scientists (actually it's 50 scientists who actually participate in the group) have since completely reversed their 20 March pro-lockdown stance. The group is called "Vetenskapsforum COVID-19", and they have removed lockdown from their program, which is now is a fairly minor tweak of what is already being done in Sweden: https://vetcov19.se/en/dokument/viktigt_urgent/. No lockdown there.

So this is a bunch of nothing. Tegnell is actually one of the LEAST controversial pandemic figures in his own country, and in the Nordic region altogether. He is "polarizing" and "controversial" among foreigners, who have been trying since the pandemic started to find in Sweden an avatar of what they are either for, or against. But he is hardly "polarizing" in Sweden.

Sweden's example doesn't actually support any side in the debate in the U.S. Sweden's pandemic response is as far as you can imagine from the "let her rip" approach of the Great Barrington Declaration. The pandemic measures in Sweden are VERY extensive, and are based on an actual plan, on pandemic planning which had been carried out for years and decades prior to the start of this pandemic. Actually achieved social distancing in Sweden has been VERY extensive, comparable actually to what has been achieved in many countries in lockdown.

So those extreme anti-lockdown folks who like to refer to Sweden just can't use Sweden as an example. Sweden is not at all doing, what they advocate.

Nor is Sweden an example of "failed" "lax" policy. First of all, the policy is hardly "lax", for the reasons I described above. Nor is it "failed". Sweden today has one of the lowest death rates in Europe, has far less of the social problems experienced in other countries, almost none of the health care rationing which has apparently killed 15,000 people in the UK, and while the Swedish economy has suffered, there is very little extra unemployment, such that Sweden is one of the only countries in the world where the welfare system is successfully catching EVERYONE who has lost a job or otherwise been affected by the pandemic.

There is a lot of ignorant mythology written about Sweden, from all sides of the debate.

[Dockhead]

I passed through Helsinki's airport today, was waved through by friendly border guards (I did have to go through passport control, bowever, even though I was coming from a Schengen country), got sniffed by dogs, was advised by a friendly chap about my voluntary quarantine, and then -- took a free and voluntary COVID test.

That was something new. Now they offer everyone who arrives from anywhere, a free PCR test. Everyone on my flight, it seemed, was in line to take the free test, which took about 10 minutes including the queuing. The ladies administering this program were exceedingly jolly and friendly; the process was working like clockwork; the whole atmosphere is relaxed and friendly and devoid of fear or panic. It's nice being in this part of the world during this horrible time.

Testing and contact tracing has gone into high gear in the Nordics -- I don't know about the rest of the world. In Sweden they are testing more than 1% of the population every week, and Finland is not far behind.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This is a very strange way to describe Tegnell -- "bureaucrat"? "Low profile"? Not indeed -- Tegnell is an internationally renowned epidemiologist, a scientist through and through, and his position, as State Epidemiologist of Sweden, is far more than bureaucratic...

Indeed.
But, my point was, who ever heard of him, before this year?

Dr. Anders Tegnell appears to be very well qualified, especially in the relevant fields of public health medicine (infectious diseases), and epidemiology - whereas, I am a retired tradesman, with a highschool education. Accordingly, a little salt, may be in order.
Notwithstanding, I (and I bet the majority of experts) still disagree with him, regarding masking.

According to Wikipedia, Nils Anders Tegnell studied medicine at Lund University in 1985, subsequently interning at the county hospital in Östersund, and later specialised in infectious disease at Linköping University Hospital.
Tegnell obtained a research-based senior Medical Doctorate from Linköping University in 2003, and a MSc in Epidemiology from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in 2004.
➥ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Tegnell
➥ https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...%20Tegnell.pdf

Originally Posted by Dockhead

... in Sweden, 70% of the population support the pandemic response, whereas in the U.S., it's 57.1% who DISapprove of the pandemic response...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't Swedes generally inclined towards trust in their institutions/government, and etc?
Americans, on the other hand, are increasingly mistrustful of all institutions/government, & even 'science'.

Accordingly, those public opinion numbers* seem intuitively more or less accurate, to me.
* Public opinion - the great arbiter of truth.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed.
But, my point was, who ever heard of him, before this year?

Well, I think most epidemiologists.

Originally Posted by GordMay

. . . Dr. Anders Tegnell appears to be very well qualified, especially in the relevant fields of public health medicine (infectious diseases), and epidemiology - whereas, I am a retired tradesman, with a highschool education. Accordingly, a little salt, may be in order.
Notwithstanding, I (and I bet the majority of experts) still disagree with him, regarding masking.

Which is your right. And I think I'm with you, based on my own reading. HOWEVER -- masking is controversial among scientists. Tegnell believes masking has little efficacy and can be harmful by giving a false sense of security. I believe he holds this opinion in good faith and based on science.

HOWEVER, one thing about masking, unlike closing schools or doing lockdowns -- the cost is so little, that it's much more worth taking a risk with. Maybe it's really not that efficacious, but we have lost little by masking. Therefore my own opinion is in favor of masking.

Originally Posted by GordMay

Correct me if I'm wrong

Originally Posted by GordMay

, but aren't Swedes generally inclined towards trust in their institutions/government, and etc?
Americans, on the other hand, are increasingly mistrustful of all institutions/government, & even 'science'.

Absolutely. And their institutions EARN that trust, including Tegnell's Folkhälsomyndighetens, which did much more thorough pandemic planning than what was done in most countries, and which FOLLOWED that plan in an intensely science-driven manner. These are very well organized societies; folks from the U.S. like me can only envy and wonder at them.

To your point about the mistrustfulnes of Americans about institutions, government, and even 'science' -- did you know that 49% of Americans believe that the pandemic is "intentionally manufactured and purposefully spread as a bioweapon for political or economic gains"; 44% believe that the pandemic is exaggerated for political reasons, and 13% believe the pandemic is a hoax? See: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10....48550620934692. And we allow these people to vote? Why are we surprised that the politicians elected by such citizens can't find their way, and so make political circuses instead of solutions? You simply can't compare the political-administrative response in such a society, to that in a country with an actual scientist as head of state (Germany), or where pandemic policy is entirely conducted by scientists without interference from politicians (Sweden). So no wonder they have more confidence in Germany and Sweden. Different type of society altogether, totally different level of education and maturity.

Originally Posted by GordMay

. . . Accordingly, those public opinion numbers* seem intuitively more or less accurate, to me.

* Public opinion - the great arbiter of truth.

Sure, but we weren't determining TRUTH, we were talking about something different -- we were addressing the proposition that Tegnell is "polarizing" and "controversial". As I wrote -- not in Sweden, and not actually in the whole region.

[stevensuf]

Of course there will be a third wave, schools will close for xmas and new year, cases will fall dramatically, then when they go back it will all start again!

[skipmac]

Sweden came up in the news this weekend in the US. According to reports there is a major surge in cases and Sweden now reports more deaths from Covid than all the other Scandinavian countries combined.

Seems like their strategies are not working and new restrictions have been announced.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by stevensuf

Of course there will be a third wave, schools will close for xmas and new year, cases will fall dramatically, then when they go back it will all start again!

Indeed. This bloody nightmare is far, far from over.



The Spanish Flu had three waves: Spring 1918, Fall 1918, Winter 1919.



I guess this pandemic will be the same. I guess (and hope) that the third wave will die down by Summer 2021, we'll all have normal cruising, then before we can have another wave in Fall 2021, enough people will be vaccinated to stop it.


If the Spanish Flu had three waves, we could easily have 4, 5, 6, any number. Because -- unlike the case with Spanish Flu, we are effectively surpressing the pandemic which means that most of world populations are still vulnerable. Our pandemic measures stretch it out. But now that we know we will have effective vaccines (hooray!!!), this seems clearly worth it.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I guess this pandemic will be the same. I guess (and hope) that the third wave will die down by Summer 2021, we'll all have normal cruising, then before we can have another wave in Fall 2021, enough people will be vaccinated to stop it.

Heard from my daughter who is an ER doctor, this morning. She was just told hospital staff will be getting vaccine in 3-4 weeks.

Could be coming sooner than we think.

Hope so as I had to cancel last summer's trip to Europe. Rebooked for next summer so have my fingers crossed.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Sweden came up in the news this weekend in the US. According to reports there is a major surge in cases and Sweden now reports more deaths from Covid than all the other Scandinavian countries combined.

Seems like their strategies are not working and new restrictions have been announced.

More biased nonsense from biased journalists.

Sweden is having a big second wave of infections like most European countries.

But the daily death rate in Sweden, today 1.65 per million, is low. It's less than Canada's. It's half of Germany's, 4x less than the European average, 6x less than France's. It's not pleasant -- it's the second highest in the region after Lithuania -- but it's manageable. It's far below the peak in the Spring of almost 10 per million.

The Swedish strategies are working VERY WELL and are continuing, with different VOLUNTARY restrictions added or subtracted according to the situation. The basically exactly same strategies are in effect everywhere in the Nordic region, which is by far the least affected region of Europe.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Heard from my daughter who is an ER doctor, this morning. She was just told hospital staff will be getting vaccine in 3-4 weeks.

Could be coming sooner than we think.

Hope so as I had to cancel last summer's trip to Europe. Rebooked for next summer so have my fingers crossed.

I'm guessing your trip next summer should be ok


It's simply fantastic news that all the vaccines are working out to be effective. Amazing, stupendous good news. It's hard to believe that vaccines are actually getting distributed THIS YEAR. I read that 3 million doses will be distributed in the U.S. before Christmas.


HOWEVER, to stop the pandemic, 60%-70% of the population has to have either natural immunity or be vaccinated. It's pretty hard to see that happening in less than a year from now. Would be great if I'm wrong. But the good news is that even 20%-30% of the population immune one way or another will really slow it down. And anyway the infection rates fall off in the summer. So I think we have good reason to hope that next summer will be fine

[Wotname]

One media report extolling the virtues (and speed of delivery) of the Oxford vaccine. If true, it is excellent news.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020...20-%2020201124

[GordMay]

But, my point was, who ever heard of him, before this year?
To which Dockhead replied: Well, I think most epidemiologists.

But, unlike most epidemiologists, Dr. Tegnell has Fan Club(s)!
How many sciency bureaucrats have fan clubs.


Well gosh, golly, gee: I just looked, and saw that Dr. Anthony Fauci also has a Fan Club.
Whoduthunk? Not me.