Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

One media report extolling the virtues (and speed of delivery) of the Oxford vaccine. If true, it is excellent news.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020...20-%2020201124

A clear picture emerges that the pharmaceutical industry has really made it happen -- an achievement for the ages. And the virus apparently is uniquely susceptible to vaccines. We are blessed indeed.

Astrazeneca has its origins in Astra AB, founded in 1913 in Stockholm County, Sweden, by 400 doctors and pharmacists. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AstraZeneca

The first successful vaccine was developed by BioNTech, a German company founded by a Turkish husband and wife team of doctors, who were already billionaires before all this happened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BioNTech

We love to bash "Big Pharma", but my God what would our lives be like now without them.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

We love to bash "Big Pharma", but my God what would our lives be like now without them.

Big pharma, the insurance industry, law enforcement, the military, the oil & gas industry (dare I say), and LAWYERS! Institutions & professions many people love to hate . . . until they absolutely need them that is.

[goboatingnow]

The vaccine is coming , the vaccine is coming , sung to the coke Christmas tune

My brother is a microbiologist with phizer , so I’m hoping he’ll sneak some home soon !!! , now where can I get that liquid nitrogen

[Montanan]

Drugmaker AstraZeneca announced on Monday that its experimental coronavirus vaccine has shown an average efficacy of 70% in large-scale trials -- the latest of several vaccine trials worldwide to post their results this month.

The average efficacy of 70% came from the average of two different dosing schedules tested as part of the trials in the United Kingdom and Brazil.
The vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, showed 90% efficacy in one dosing regimen -- when the vaccine was given to 2,741 people as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least a month later -- and 62% efficacy in a second regimen -- when two full doses were given to 8,895 people at least a month apart. That averages to a 70% efficacy, AstraZeneca said.

It is not yet clear why the two dosages produced such different results.

When people were given the smaller dose, the number of asymptomatic infections dropped, indicating a difference in transmission, Professor Andrew Pollard, the trial's lead investigator at Oxford,

AstraZeneca is the third drugmaker to unveil promising results in the fight against coronavirus this month, with Moderna announcing earlier in November that its vaccine was 94.5% effective against coronavirus, and Pfizer/BioNTech revealing that its vaccine was 95% effective.

Russia's sovereign wealth fund, which is financing its vaccine research, said earlier this month that preliminary data from the Sputnik-V coronavirus vaccine suggested 92% efficacy. However, some scientists have urged caution, noting that the data is far from conclusive.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/23/europ...ntl/index.html

[Dockhead]

The situation today with daily case rates (as always, per million, on a 7 day rolling average basis):



Daily case rates in Lithuania back up over 600. Will the rest of the Baltic States look like this? But so far Estonia and Latvia not all that bad; not high rate of growth. Estonia somewhat above 200; Latvia somewhat below.

Sweden still down from the peak a couple of weeks ago but blipped up again; presently 425.

Finland with a worrying surge in cases, still by far the lowest daily case rate in Europe, but now at 65 -- a record.

UK decisively down, and now under 300.

European average daily case rate decisively down, at 321.

What concerns death rates:



The European average is 6.13.

Sweden, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, Finland all at low rates, below 2.

Germany levelling off at the fairly low rate of 2.64. Latvia increasing at about the same rate. Lithuania turning down at over 5 (still under the European average).

So more and more evidence that:

1. The second wave is subsiding in Europe.
2. Without anything like the death we saw in the Spring (different from the Spanish Flu where the second wave was the really deadly one).
3. But heretofore unaffected countries may get their second wave with lag time: Finland, Estonia, Latvia.

I think the best thing in this picture is the European average daily cases, which has decisively turned down, and is now at a somewhat moderate rate of 321. In contrast to the U.S. daily case rate, which goes up and up, now at 525.


Many countries are tightening measures.



In Finland, several municipalities report high rates of increase in daily cases: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...-epidemic.html


And newly tightened measures:



Not all measures are tightened. Restrictions on travel within the Schengen Zone may soon be lifted:


https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...-controls.html


"Internal" here means within Schengen.


These borders are even now fairly porous. In Northern Europe, not only is business travel and travel to reunite families generally permitted across "closed" borders, but also visits of girlfriends with boyfriends, and based on the word of the traveler that he or she is visiting a boyfriend or girlfriend. This is really enlightened and humane policy.

[goboatingnow]

The US is in deep doodah , but I suspect has now decided to do nothing until a vaccine

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The US is in deep doodah , but I suspect has now decided to do nothing until a vaccine

Well, it's not "nothing": https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/n...ns/3761230001/


Whether it's enough or not I don't know. We shall see. It will be bad for the whole world if this continues to get worse and the U.S. has a really bad second wave.

[Dockhead]

Oh, and by the way, I didn't include in the graphs, because this thread is about Northern Europe, but we have really good news on daily infection rates in the other big European countries: France (huge decrease to 336 from the dizzying peak of 841), Spain (262 down from 452), Italy (534 down from 580). So the overall picture in Europe is of a definite downturn in the infection curve.

Even in Poland the news is good: 538 down from 675, but the death rate in Poland is horrendous for the time being.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

More biased nonsense from biased journalists.

Sweden is having a big second wave of infections like most European countries.

But the daily death rate in Sweden, today 1.65 per million, is low. It's less than Canada's. It's half of Germany's, 4x less than the European average, 6x less than France's. It's not pleasant -- it's the second highest in the region after Lithuania -- but it's manageable. It's far below the peak in the Spring of almost 10 per million.

The Swedish strategies are working VERY WELL and are continuing, with different VOLUNTARY restrictions added or subtracted according to the situation. The basically exactly same strategies are in effect everywhere in the Nordic region, which is by far the least affected region of Europe.

Don't know how you can call this biased nonsense. The reports, which are confirmed by numerous sources, show Sweden with a higher death rate than all the other Scandinavian countries combined. Did not compare them to Germany, UK or any other country, only their Nordic neighbors.

Further, the PM Stefan Löfven, recently announced new restrictions on public gatherings so clearly even the Swedes think things could be doing better.

Certainly their record is much better than most of the EU but like the rest of the world they are seeing a surge and it seems more serious than the surge in the rest of their region.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, it's not "nothing": https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/n...ns/3761230001/


Whether it's enough or not I don't know. We shall see. It will be bad for the whole world if this continues to get worse and the U.S. has a really bad second wave.

Certainly there is some activity in some states to deal with the rising number of infections. The problem is there is no consistent policy and a complete lack of leadership from DC. In fact quite the opposite as Trump has consistently dismissed the seriousness of the pandemic, referring to a liberal hoax, no more serious than a cold, we've turned the corner, it will be over by Christmas.

Basically he turned the pandemic into a political war with a large part of the population believing his claims and another large group claiming it violates their rights to wear a mask, to the point of occasional violence. I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone.

Bottom line, some individual states are addressing the problem, others like Florida are doing nothing.

Meanwhile the US has by far the highest death rate of any developed country.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Don't know how you can call this biased nonsense. The reports, which are confirmed by numerous sources, show Sweden with a higher death rate than all the other Scandinavian countries combined. Did not compare them to Germany, UK or any other country, only their Nordic neighbors.

It's truly and absolutely -- biased nonsense. In late September Denmark had an infection rate and death rate greater than all the other Scandinavian countries combined, just a couple of months ago, although the death rate at its peak wasn't all that high. So what? Now Sweden has a low death rate, as I wrote, 4x less than the European average, but just happens to be more at this moment than other Scandinavian countries. So what?

A few months ago you could have said that -- wow, the death rate in Australia was 5x higher than in New Zealand! This would have been true, but so what? Both were quite close to zero, so that momentary 5x means nothing. This is the same thing.

Originally Posted by skipmac

Further, the PM Stefan Löfven, recently announced new restrictions on public gatherings so clearly even the Swedes think things could be doing better.

What kind of warped perspective, indicates that adjusting measures means someone "could be doing better", as if it's some kind of sign of failure? The measures have been constantly adjusted -- that's how they do them. Constant adjustment of the measures is a fundamental part of the original Swedish pandemic plan. And all European countries are constantly adding to or subtracting from their measures. In Finland, we had last Friday, and then two Fridays before that, rafts of new restrictions announced. Does that mean that the Finns think their strategy is failing? Of course not. It means they are actively managing the pandemic, like the Swedes are. Which IS and always has been their strategy, just like it is in Sweden.

Originally Posted by skipmac

Certainly their record is much better than most of the EU but like the rest of the world they are seeing a surge and it seems more serious than the surge in the rest of their region.

So what? Yesterday it was Denmark, today it is Sweden (rather, Lithuania). The pandemic surges here and there, and declines, for reasons which are inscrutable (or simply random). The surge in Sweden is a minor surge compared to most other European countries, and certainly nothing compared to the U.S., and is already subsiding, having caused very few deaths.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's truly and absolutely -- biased nonsense. In late September Denmark had an infection rate and death rate greater than all the other Scandinavian countries combined, just a couple of months ago, although the death rate at its peak wasn't all that high. So what? Now Sweden has a low death rate, as I wrote, 4x less than the European average, but just happens to be more at this moment than other Scandinavian countries. So what?

A few months ago you could have said that -- wow, the death rate in Australia was 5x higher than in New Zealand! This would have been true, but so what? Both were quite close to zero, so that momentary 5x means nothing. This is the same thing.



What kind of warped perspective, indicates that adjusting measures means someone "could be doing better", as if it's some kind of sign of failure? The measures have been constantly adjusted -- that's how they do them. Constant adjustment of the measures is a fundamental part of the original Swedish pandemic plan. And all European countries are constantly adding to or subtracting from their measures. In Finland, we had last Friday, and then two Fridays before that, rafts of new restrictions announced. Does that mean that the Finns think their strategy is failing? Of course not. It means they are actively managing the pandemic, like the Swedes are. Which IS and always has been their strategy, just like it is in Sweden.



So what? Yesterday it was Denmark, today it is Sweden (rather, Lithuania). The pandemic surges here and there, and declines, for reasons which are inscrutable (or simply random). The surge in Sweden is a minor surge compared to most other European countries, and certainly nothing compared to the U.S., and is already subsiding, having caused very few deaths.

Not sure why you are so annoyed by this. Did not say they had experienced some horrible failure. Not trying to demonize nor make accusations against Sweden. In fact have stated clearly that the death rate in Sweden is hugely, dramatically better than the US and most EU countries as well, just not doing as well as the rest of Scandinavia. In fact I wish the US could show even half as good a record as Sweden.

However since you dispute this here's the numbers, verified from multiple sources including the ECDC.

Total deaths as of 18 Nov.

Sweden 6,321
Denmark 770
Norway 299
Finland 374

Population
Sweden 10 million
Norway, Finland, Denmark total 16.5 million.

Totals
Sweden 6,321 deaths for 10 million population
Others 1,443 deaths for 16.5 million population

Quote from the Swedish PM “We have a very serious situation. More and more intensive care beds are now being used to treat COVID patients. The respite we got this summer is over.” He further commented that too many people have neglected guidelines and recommendations regarding the virus in recent months. He called on fellow Swedes to stay home and not mix with people outside their homes.

Bottom line, Sweden isn't immune from what is impacting the rest of the world. Yes they are overall doing much better than the huge majority of the planet.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Not sure why you are so annoyed by this. Did not say they had experienced some horrible failure. Not trying to demonize nor make accusations against Sweden. In fact have stated clearly that the death rate in Sweden is hugely, dramatically better than the US and most EU countries as well, just not doing as well as the rest of Scandinavia. In fact I wish the US could show even half as good a record as Sweden.

However since you dispute this here's the numbers, verified from multiple sources including the ECDC.

Total deaths as of 18 Nov.

Sweden 6,321
Denmark 770
Norway 299
Finland 374

Population
Sweden 10 million
Norway, Finland, Denmark total 16.5 million.

Totals
Sweden 6,321 deaths for 10 million population
Others 1,443 deaths for 16.5 million population

Quote from the Swedish PM “We have a very serious situation. More and more intensive care beds are now being used to treat COVID patients. The respite we got this summer is over.” He further commented that too many people have neglected guidelines and recommendations regarding the virus in recent months. He called on fellow Swedes to stay home and not mix with people outside their homes.

Bottom line, Sweden isn't immune from what is impacting the rest of the world. Yes they are overall doing much better than the huge majority of the planet.

Sorry, I didn't mean to express annoyance. Certainly not in your direction.

I just don't like the ignorant narrative around Sweden where everyone left or right has some axe to grind. The PM announces tightened measures and some journalist announces that the strategy failed

Sweden has had much more death than other Nordic countries -- everyone knows that. As I said -- so what. Sweden had a particularly bad outbreak at the beginning. Nevertheless, Sweden is doing much better than almost anywhere else in Europe. Look at Switzerland, a country of similar size, population density, wealth, etc., with over 10 daily deaths per million today, a rate never reached in Sweden (Sweden today 1.65). The Swedish strategy, which is more or less identical to the strategies throughout the Nordic region, is working very well so far, causing relatively little secondary harm, particularly to the working poor, and keeping the virus under reasonable control so far, based on totally sustainable measures which can be kept up as long as necessary.

People with an axe to grind are eager to find anything that can be rationalized into a narrative of how Sweden "failed". Even most absurdly, the fact that they tighten the measures when the infection rate goes up, just like every single other country in the world. This is just ignorant.

Of course Sweden isn't "immune from what's impacting the rest of the world". This is a very serious global crisis which affects almost everyone on earth, and Sweden like many other countries has been hard hit, not just the number of sick and dead, but disruption of life and harm to people's livelihoods, education, etc. etc.. Here in Finland, where the infection rates are by far the lowest in Europe, and death is almost zero, the PM has made similar announcements that we are entering a very difficult phase, people must make sacrifices, measures are being tightened, etc. The same kind of things are being said all over the world. There is nothing special about them being said in Sweden.

[TeddyDiver]

Meanwhile up north the Finland-Norwegian border opens up partially again next saturday. This has been on/off chancing one or two times a month so far. Me, not "infected" except for stopping by the border to verify reasons of my goings which is a child on the other side of the border. One case of Covid in Vadso and two more in the eastern Finmark.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Meanwhile up north the Finland-Norwegian border opens up partially again next saturday. This has been on/off chancing one or two times a month so far. Me, not "infected" except for stopping by the border to verify reasons of my goings which is a child on the other side of the border. One case of Covid in Vadso and two more in the eastern Finmark.

If you are going to visit a child, then they let you through always and under all conditions of the border, no?


I know that they allow anyone from any country to come to Finland in order to see a sweetheart, and you don't even need documents -- your word is enough. I presume the right to visit a child must be even more strongly protected?