Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

If you are going to visit a child, then they let you through always and under all conditions of the border, no?


I know that they allow anyone from any country to come to Finland in order to see a sweetheart, and you don't even need documents -- your word is enough. I presume the right to visit a child must be even more strongly protected?

You right about the stronger right. Thou for visiting a child you must have some docs with you. The "anyone" you mentioned above must be also eligible to cross the border as having passport etc in order.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

The situation today with daily case rates (as always, per million, on a 7 day rolling average basis):

Attachment 227501

Daily case rates in Lithuania back up over 600. Will the rest of the Baltic States look like this? But so far Estonia and Latvia not all that bad; not high rate of growth. Estonia somewhat above 200; Latvia somewhat below.

Sweden still down from the peak a couple of weeks ago but blipped up again; presently 425.

Finland with a worrying surge in cases, still by far the lowest daily case rate in Europe, but now at 65 -- a record.

UK decisively down, and now under 300.

European average daily case rate decisively down, at 321.

What concerns death rates:

Attachment 227502

The European average is 6.13.

Sweden, Estonia, Denmark, Norway, Finland all at low rates, below 2.

Germany levelling off at the fairly low rate of 2.64. Latvia increasing at about the same rate. Lithuania turning down at over 5 (still under the European average).

So more and more evidence that:

1. The second wave is subsiding in Europe.
2. Without anything like the death we saw in the Spring (different from the Spanish Flu where the second wave was the really deadly one).
3. But heretofore unaffected countries may get their second wave with lag time: Finland, Estonia, Latvia.

I think the best thing in this picture is the European average daily cases, which has decisively turned down, and is now at a somewhat moderate rate of 321. In contrast to the U.S. daily case rate, which goes up and up, now at 525.


Many countries are tightening measures.



In Finland, several municipalities report high rates of increase in daily cases: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...-epidemic.html


And newly tightened measures:



Not all measures are tightened. Restrictions on travel within the Schengen Zone may soon be lifted:


https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...-controls.html


"Internal" here means within Schengen.


These borders are even now fairly porous. In Northern Europe, not only is business travel and travel to reunite families generally permitted across "closed" borders, but also visits of girlfriends with boyfriends, and based on the word of the traveler that he or she is visiting a boyfriend or girlfriend. This is really enlightened and humane policy.

Using 7 day averages and then discussing daily changes might not show you much. Here's current daily new cases and daily deaths for Sweden. I don't think they report on the weekend, so you see the repeated bounces in the data (which probably don't smooth well at 7 day moving avg). Either way, when I look at this data I don't see Sweden turning the corner yet.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Sorry, I didn't mean to express annoyance. Certainly not in your direction.

I just don't like the ignorant narrative around Sweden where everyone left or right has some axe to grind. The PM announces tightened measures and some journalist announces that the strategy failed

Sweden has had much more death than other Nordic countries -- everyone knows that. As I said -- so what. Sweden had a particularly bad outbreak at the beginning. Nevertheless, Sweden is doing much better than almost anywhere else in Europe. Look at Switzerland, a country of similar size, population density, wealth, etc., with over 10 daily deaths per million today, a rate never reached in Sweden (Sweden today 1.65). The Swedish strategy, which is more or less identical to the strategies throughout the Nordic region, is working very well so far, causing relatively little secondary harm, particularly to the working poor, and keeping the virus under reasonable control so far, based on totally sustainable measures which can be kept up as long as necessary.

People with an axe to grind are eager to find anything that can be rationalized into a narrative of how Sweden "failed". Even most absurdly, the fact that they tighten the measures when the infection rate goes up, just like every single other country in the world. This is just ignorant.

Of course Sweden isn't "immune from what's impacting the rest of the world". This is a very serious global crisis which affects almost everyone on earth, and Sweden like many other countries has been hard hit, not just the number of sick and dead, but disruption of life and harm to people's livelihoods, education, etc. etc.. Here in Finland, where the infection rates are by far the lowest in Europe, and death is almost zero, the PM has made similar announcements that we are entering a very difficult phase, people must make sacrifices, measures are being tightened, etc. The same kind of things are being said all over the world. There is nothing special about them being said in Sweden.

Also sorry if I seem to be harping on this point but I think it could be informative to watch Sweden and compare their results to others and comparisons to the other Scandinavian countries would be the most relevant.

The reason, Sweden while not specifically declaring herd immunity as the official policy for dealing with pandemic, by default herd immunity would be a byproduct of the more relaxed policies they have adopted, contrary to the lockdown policies most other countries including the rest of Scandinavia are using. Watching the success of their strategy both in the short and long term, could help the rest of us decide on the best strategies to try.

Also the Swedish model has been championed by the far right in the US as an example and justification for keeping the country open so how they fare is even more of interest to the US, which doesn't have much of an official policy at all except piecemeal on a state by state basis.

Finally to reiterate, I am not criticizing Sweden, just observing them in relationship to the neighbors. I think Sweden has implemented a number of great ideas in their society, some that others might learn from.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Also sorry if I seem to be harping on this point but I think it could be informative to watch Sweden and compare their results to others and comparisons to the other Scandinavian countries would be the most relevant.

I don't think so. The reason is that different countries have outbreaks of different intensities for reasons which are not related to the measures taken.

As I wrote -- In August and September, Denmark had a big outbreak, and even had one of the highest infection rates in Europe -- briefly. Far more than other Nordic countries.

Now, it's Lithuania. Tomorrow it may well be Finland (unfortunately).

And most importantly -- the measures taken in these countries don't differ enough to tell you anything about what measures work and which do not. The measures in Denmark, Sweden, and Finland have been almost the same from the beginning, and have been practically identical since May.

Originally Posted by skipmac

. . .The reason, Sweden while not specifically declaring herd immunity as the official policy for dealing with pandemic, by default herd immunity would be a byproduct of the more relaxed policies they have adopted, contrary to the lockdown policies most other countries including the rest of Scandinavia are using. Watching the success of their strategy both in the short and long term, could help the rest of us decide on the best strategies to try.

And there's the whole problem -- people are looking in Sweden for signs of the success or failure, for confirmation or denial, of a "strategy" which does not exist. Swedish policies are not "more relaxed" than the rest of the Nordic countries. NONE OF THEM ever had lockdown. Swedish policies were briefly different from Finnish and Danish ones only in that (a) only high schools and universities were closed but primary schools were kept open (in Finland and Denmark primary schools were closed briefly, which is now widely considered in those countries to have been a mistake); and (b) restaurants and certain other public places were kept open but with social distancing, table service only, distance between tables rather than being closed up (also a policy we see being used all over Europe now). In all of the Nordic countries the main social distancing meassures were always the same -- recommended working from home, recommended no travelling, limits on size of public and private gatherings, recommended social bubbles, etc.

Norway, unlike Denmark and Finland, left restaurants open like Sweden did. School closings were very brief -- in Norway they were already open again on 20 April. Norway and Finland briefly had legal (rather than recommended) bans on certain internal travel (in Finland just in and out of the capital region).

The relatively minor differences between Sweden and other Nordic countries were mostly eliminated already in April, and entirely by May.

Originally Posted by skipmac

. . .Also the Swedish model has been championed by the far right in the US as an example and justification for keeping the country open so how they fare is even more of interest to the US, which doesn't have much of an official policy at all except piecemeal on a state by state basis.

And I think this is the whole problem right there -- the so-called Swedish model, which no one in the U.S. has actually studied or understands, has been politicized, and therefore you see people watching Sweden with political juices running down their chins, just waiting to see either success or failure in their own invention of what the "Swedish model" is. As I have written -- the right totally misunderstand what the "Swedish model" is -- it is NOT just "keeping the country open", it is not "let her rip", it does not prove that social distancing is unnecessary. The Swedish model is NOT what is recommended in the Great Barrington Declaration. The Swedes, like the other Nordic countries, were always aiming at reducing infection as much as reasonably possible by various means including social distancing. And all these countries achieved a degree of social distancing by intelligent mostly voluntary measures which exceeds the degree of social distancing achieved in many countries which locked down.

Likewise you have people on the left, for the same politicized reason, just peeing down both legs to find some evidence of "failure" of the so-called "Swedish model", going to the absurd lengths of, for example, in the example you posted, declaring "failure" because the measures are being adjusted during a surge (which as I said -- they are constantly adjusted -- that is the whole plan).

As to herd immunity -- the whole world wants it; that's why we have a vaccine. We will not achieve anything near full herd immunity anywhere until we have a vaccine. They don't have anything near herd immunity in Sweden, and their policies, which are not so "relaxed", were never designed to achieve it. Their policies are designed to dampen down the pandemic as much as practical using the most non-destructive, and importantly, the most SUSTAINABLE measures available. This is the same approach which has been used all over the Nordic region, and indeed in Germany, Switzerland, and the Baltic States.

Originally Posted by skipmac

. . . Finally to reiterate, I am not criticizing Sweden, just observing them in relationship to the neighbors. I think Sweden has implemented a number of great ideas in their society, some that others might learn from.

I got it, but I think you've been handed a glass of kool-aid by politicized and, unfortunately, ignorant journalists with a political axe to grind, and lacking any real curiosity, bent only on confirming their own biases. If you're interested in how the Nordic and Baltic Region has dealt with the pandemic -- do your own reading, think critically, read local sources, and especially, read scientific sources.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Using 7 day averages and then discussing daily changes might not show you much. Here's current daily new cases and daily deaths for Sweden. I don't think they report on the weekend, so you see the repeated bounces in the data (which probably don't smooth well at 7 day moving avg). Either way, when I look at this data I don't see Sweden turning the corner yet.

All the data I have been posted has always been 7 day rolling averages.

I agree with you that it is not clear whether Sweden (or any country in the region) has really turned the corner. I am afraid that Finland is due to get whacked next. The second wave is generally subsiding in Europe, as I have written, but the Nordic and Baltic Region has so far been much less affected by the second wave than the rest of Europe, and might have some more bad times ahead.

Lithuania, which has exactly the same measures as the rest of the region, has been badly whacked. This can happen to any of us, at any time -- it seems to be a fairly random event.





Everyone here in Finland is battening the hatches -- the PM has been on TV, the measures have been significantly tightened -- although we still have the lowest infection rate in Europe, there are signs that the happy days are over and it may be our turn to get a whacking.

This goes with the territory when you are unable or unwilling to eradicate the virus as has been done in Australia and New Zealand. Eradication was basically impossible in Europe already from the beginning of March and so it has not been attempted in any European country -- we are rather "living with the virus", trying to keep community spread down as much as possible, trying to keep it reasonably in hand and suffer through this time until we can get people vaccinated.

Ths is the same approach being used universally in all European countries, just with somewhat different mixes of measures. During this second wave, the Nordic Model has been used everywhere in Europe, with just a few countries resorting to lockdown only as a last resort in really drastic situations. So far from being a failure -- the Nordic Model is on the contrary the very model for those countries which are "living with the virus", like we are everywhere in Europe.

[Wotname]

Regarding the same measures yet different outcomes scenario, I am wondering if it simply boils down to what the community actually does rather than what the advice and measures are (as promulgated by the government).

Perhaps the community doesn't take the various measures seriously while case numbers remain low. However when the numbers climb, they sit up and think maybe we should heed the advice.

IOW, people disregard the advice when they feel safe (ie low numbers) but follow it when they see high numbers.

Such behaviour is exacerbated by the 7 to 14 delay between community actions and case numbers. The numbers today are the result of the behaviour last fortnight. New behaviour today won't show up in numbers until next fortnight.

[goboatingnow]

The problematic issue is Christmas which will inevitably generate a spike in Jan/feb requiring more restrictions

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Regarding the same measures yet different outcomes scenario, I am wondering if it simply boils down to what the community actually does rather than what the advice and measures are (as promulgated by the government).

Perhaps the community doesn't take the various measures seriously while case numbers remain low. However when the numbers climb, they sit up and think maybe we should heed the advice.

IOW, people disregard the advice when they feel safe (ie low numbers) but follow it when they see high numbers.

Such behaviour is exacerbated by the 7 to 14 delay between community actions and case numbers. The numbers today are the result of the behaviour last fortnight. New behaviour today won't show up in numbers until next fortnight.

Yes, I think you're absolutely right about this.

And what's funny is that the voluntary measures in the Nordic countries appear to have greater compliance than the legally binding measures in most countries which had legal lockdowns.

But it's human nature to relax and live more like normal, when the situation is calm. And that's what people do.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The problematic issue is Christmas which will inevitably generate a spike in Jan/feb requiring more restrictions

Yes, I'm afraid you're right. Sigh. It's going to be a long, dark winter.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, I think you're absolutely right about this.

And what's funny is that the voluntary measures in the Nordic countries appear to have greater compliance than the legally binding measures in most countries which had legal lockdowns.

But it's human nature to relax and live more like normal, when the situation is calm. And that's what people do.

I agree , in Ireland we have had some difficulty getting community adherence to the measures. Usually after a few days there’s a massive outdoor drinking session or even senior officials end Up at a golf do etc. ( that cost us the EU trade commissioners portfolio )

The police here have zero appetite for enforcement , ( and the police authority asked the Gov to not enact penalty legislation )

Hard to get a nation historically full of individualists to toe a line

We have a 5km lockdown but the major roads are packed as everyone has a reason their journey is excempted !!

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes, I'm afraid you're right. Sigh. It's going to be a long, dark winter.

Yeah. Just left my boat in Greece to come home , here’s hoping I get back in March

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I agree , in Ireland we have had some difficulty getting community adherence to the measures. Usually after a few days there’s a massive outdoor drinking session or even senior officials end Up at a golf do etc. ( that cost us the EU trade commissioners portfolio )

The police here have zero appetite for enforcement , ( and the police authority asked the Gov to not enact penalty legislation )

Hard to get a nation historically full of individualists to toe a line

We have a 5km lockdown but the major roads are packed as everyone has a reason their journey is excempted !!

Well, but you have a fantastic result! As far as I know, the infection rate in Ireland now is the lowest in Europe except for Finland. No material amount of death. What are you complaining about? I reckon you will have a fine Christmas there.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, but you have a fantastic result! As far as I know, the infection rate in Ireland now is the lowest in Europe except for Finland. No material amount of death. What are you complaining about? I reckon you will have a fine Christmas there.

It’s more a result of a very sparsely populated country so once you practice some distancing the numbers fall

Pubs remain shut and will unlikely be allowed to open for Christmas , restaurants likely to reopen soon

Gov here however has grown fond of county based travel restrictions , but everyone has an excuse !!

We never shut our airports so we had US tourist here this summer which I think was unique for Europe !!

[GordMay]

I wish I’d found some more recent evaluations of the Nordic economies, during Covid-19, but here is a sampling, of a few perspectives, on the economic consequences, in the Nordic countries::

Nordic 2021 economic growth forecasts trimmed, virus spread top risk: Reuters poll (October)
“... Sweden, which did not lock down, will suffer a 4.0% economic contraction this year, compared with the 5.0% expected three months ago. Norway's economic contraction is now forecast at 3.6% versus 4.5%, compared with the July poll. Denmark was down to 4.2% from 4.3%.
Those are all about half the 8.1% contraction forecast for the euro zone in a September Reuters poll.
Next year, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are now expected to report economic growth of 3.5%, 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively, down from 3.9%, 4.0% and 3.8% forecast in the previous poll...”
➥ https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/bu...s-poll-511680/

Nordic 2021 economic growth forecasts trimmed, virus spread top risk: (October 21/20)
Reuters poll ➥ https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKBN27611N

Spending is back: Nordics lead the recovery (September)
“Nordea’s data on card transactions show that, after the initial coronavirus shock, the level of spending activity in the Nordics had bounced almost back to normal already in early summer...
... Overall, it is still too early to conclude which containment strategy has had or will have the best economic outcome...”
➥ https://insights.nordea.com/en/econo...m-coronavirus/

Nordea Economic Outlook: Bouncing back (September)
“... “Consumers in all the Nordic countries have played a key role in keeping the economies going. This is one of the main reasons we are revising up our growth forecasts for the Nordic countries for this year, while revising down our growth forecasts for the rest of the world ...”
➥ https://insights.nordea.com/en/econo...ook-sept-2020/

Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy (August)
“... Denmark registered a 7.4% fall, and Finland a 3.2% fall. Statistics suggest Norway (GDP fell 7.1% different timeframe) also fared better than Sweden...
... Sweden has also seen much more widespread death from COVID-19 than nearby nations — though much of Europe is again registering an increase in cases..."
➥ https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ighbors-2020-8

[goboatingnow]

The benefits of big pharma

“The Irish economy is likely to experience only a small contraction of about 0.4 per cent this year, with stronger-than-expected exports from the pharma sector offsetting much of the shock from Covid-19, the Central Bank of Ireland has indicated.”

So lockdowns are not having much effect

Growth in 2021 is forecast at 3.7% down 1.8% based on Brexit effect

Ireland’s issue are not Covid !!